1/5 In 2019, the former U.S. NSC expert on Russia under Trump 1.0 testified that the Kremlin wanted a "strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine" under the logic of a new Monroe Doctrine. Some 6 years later, under Trump 2.0, Putin can be happy to see a [...]

1/ Our project "Microfoundations of Collective Defense" [MICROCODE] funded by the @erc.europa.eu now has a website: www.erc-microcode.eu We have spent the year collecting the data and now plan to write up (and publish) our results throughout 2026. @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

“For international relations and security studies scholars, the continued reluctance by nuclear-armed states to employ their arsenals – even when fighting and losing major wars – remains a significant puzzle,” write @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, & (1/2)

Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.

Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use doi.org/10.1017/eis.... Paper in @ejisbisa.bsky.social by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social , @herzogsm.bsky.social and @mvranka.bsky.social

Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use? New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social. Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

1/4 Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....

1/2 Our new paper has just been published in @ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.

Huge congratulations to our Ph.D. candidate Zakir Rzazade for publishing his first peer-reviewed article! 🎉 He explores the expert-media gap in perceptions on drone usage implications on modern warfare. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz @europeansecurity.bsky.social

🥳 Srdečně vás zveme na další večer plný debat TO JE KRIZE! Tentokrát s @voxpot.bsky.social, @amoklima.bsky.social a @iirprague.bsky.social. Těšit se můžete na debaty o AI a klima dezinformacích, české politice vůči Izraeli, oligarchizaci politiky a morálce v současných konfliktech.

🇺🇦 Co by se stalo, kdyby Ukrajina neměla jasně dané bezpečnostní záruky? O tom, ale i o Trumpovi, Putinovi a Aljašce mluvil náš ředitel @smetanamichal.bsky.social s @jbelicek.bsky.social v @denikalarm.bsky.social. ➡️ Celý rozhovor: denikalarm.cz/2025/08/trum... @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

🚨 New from our partner @prcp.cuni.cz : "Public support for arms control in the third nuclear age" by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social. How do #NATO publics view arms control amid tech change & arms races? 📄 Read: 👇

👉 Přečtěte si rozhovor s naším odborníkem @smetanamichal.bsky.social k 80. výročí svržení atomové bomby na Hirošimu.

🎉 We are happy to officially welcome Isabelle Haynes as a new member to our @erc.europa.eu #MICROCODE team! She is a new Ph.D. candidate at the @ims.fsv.cuni.cz and in her research, she will investigate cross-national heterogeneity in public support for the collective defence principle.

New article in @ejir.bsky.social! 🚨 @smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

My new article on Iran's nuclear program in @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/07/how-...

1/2 Our new paper (w/ @mvranka.bsky.social & @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social) on public support for nuclear arms control has just been published in @ejir.bsky.social (open access link to the full article is in the next post)

The main outcome of our two-year Stanton Foundation project has now been accepted for publication in the European Journal of International Relations 🔥 @prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz

Join us at @apsa.bsky.social in Vancouver! @mvranka.bsky.social @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social

I'm just glad one of these men has the nuclear codes and the other has all our personal data.

INTERFER - our shiny new project on foreign interference, coordinated by @smetanamichal.bsky.social at @ims.fsv.cuni.cz now has a website! www.interfer-project.eu

🥳 Our #INTERFER project website has launched! You can find all information about the project, its work packages as well as the entire research team at interfer-project.eu.

1/2 🚨 New preprint alert 🚨 Together w/ @laurensukin.bsky.social @herzogsm.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social, we provide first experimental evidence on how public views on nuclear weapon use shape elite decision-making. Must read for scholars conducting nuclear nonuse experiments!

Has the “nuclear taboo” weakened in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine? A new study by @smetanamichal.bsky.social and @profonderco.bsky.social finds that “atomic aversion” among the Russian public has remained virtually unchanged. Why is this the case? 🤔 Read more here: doi.org/10.1093/jogs...

Our new @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE report explores public support for defending Taiwan across Western countries 👇

This is a good summary of what Putin’s proposal means

Almost as if making major a priori concessions to the stronger party and bullying the weaker one is not the best mediation strategy you could go for 🤷‍♂️

next batch of our MICROCODE data on public support for defending allies, this time from Czech Republic (thanks @ipsosgroup.bsky.social CZ!) see www.erc-microcode.eu/research-rep... for previous reports from USA, Russia & more NATO countries. @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz

Pokud by Rusko napadlo Lotyšsko, jen přibližně polovina Čechů by souhlasila s tím bránit našeho spojence (naše čerstvá @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE data ve spolupráci s IPSOS) @prcp.cuni.cz

❗️ New publication alert! A new article from @smetanamichal.bsky.social and @profonderco.bsky.social found that despite Kremlin’s belligerent rhetoric and calls for nuclear strikes, public support for using nuclear weapons against NATO has remained unchanged post-invasion. @journalofgss.bsky.social

The Kremlin could not have hoped for a better outcome in the last U.S. presidential elections. This Trump's statement comes shortly after the deadliest Russian strike on Ukrainian civilians this year.

1/2 Our new paper w/ @profonderco.bsky.social has been published in the @journalofgss.bsky.social! We present findings from a large survey experiment in Russia, which investigated how public support for nuclear weapon use has changed after the invasion of Ukraine.

1/9 Do Russians perceive NATO's collective defense commitments as credible? A 🧵

1/2 Na @seznamzpravy.bsky.social vyšel článek o našem nejnovějším výzkumu v rámci @erc.europa.eu MICROCODE projektu :

The Trump administration's Signal leak deepens a growing US credibility crisis and could embolden rivals like Russia and China, argues @laurensukin.bsky.social , @smetanamichal.bsky.social , @mvranka.bsky.social , @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social for @thebulletin.org thebulletin.org/2025/03/are-... .

1/10 Has Trump's foreign policy already damaged the perceptions of NATO's credibility? A 🧵

Are the United States and Europe still allies? The European public doesn’t think so. A new article by @laurensukin.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @mvranka.bsky.social, and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social.

🚨 Just in: Are the United States and Europe still allies? The European public doesn’t think so By @laurensukin.bsky.social @smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social In @thebulletin.org thebulletin.org/2025/03/are-... #Europe #NATO #SignalLeak #nukesky

Significantly revised preprint for our paper on public support for nuclear arms control w/ @mvranka.bsky.social @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social @prcp.bsky.social papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

„Obávám se, že vize toho, že bychom se dostali k něčemu, co bychom mohli nazvat stabilním mírem na Ukrajině, je zatím velmi daleko,“ říká v @zaminutusest.bsky.social k dosavadním výsledkům jednání na ose Washington-Moskva-Kyjev @smetanamichal.bsky.social z Fakulty sociálních věd @unikarlova.cuni.cz

„Rusko dostalo obrovskou cenu a zaplatilo za ni velmi málo,“ říká k dění tohoto týdne bezpečnostní analytik @smetanamichal.bsky.social z FSV UK. Proč by zřejmě Moskva vytěžila více z pauzy úderů na energetiku? A jaké šance teď má Ukrajina? Analýza👇

Glad to see our work w/ @ProfOnderco & Tom Etienne found its readers! :)

My article on domestic audience costs with experimental evidence from Russia has been published in the new issue of JPR (open access)

"A U.S. defense official confirmed on Wednesday that most intelligence-sharing via military channels with Ukraine has been suspended" www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Aside from how good this book is, this is censorship and ISA/APSA should speak out. Probably not the first and definitely not the last book that the federal government has outright censored and basically deleted. Yes I rewrote that last into active voice.

Arguably, this represents even bigger (and more immediate) blow to Ukraine’s ability to fight Russian army than halting US supplies of weapon systems and ammunition

As expected, Trump Administration will now be pushing for a leadership change in Ukraine

I'm honored to be invited to speak at this @erc.europa.eu event in March. Do register if you are considering applying for the ERC grant! erc.europa.eu/news-events/...