Are parenting programmes effective at scale? Associations with violence against adolescent girls, parenting and mental health in real-world delivery across eight African countries doi.org/10.1136/bmjg... Paper in @bmj.com Global Health by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow Lucie Cluver et al

“When populist parties are the first to seize on the opportunity to supply (mis-)interpretations of local changes, they can realise a first-mover advantage in the market for narratives. In the British context, the radical right has succeeded in tying local decline – even when it was, in fact,

How do empty high streets contribute to support for populist parties in England? And what does that mean for local and national politics? Analysis from @trfetzer.com @prashantgarg.bsky.social @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social for @lsebr.bsky.social in the wake of the Reform surge in the local elections.

Very exciting to get the first paper copies of my new book with Tim Monteath called “Doing Open Social Science - A Guide for Researchers” published free in OA digital form by LSE Press on 14 May here press.lse.ac.uk/books/e/10.3... Paperbacks will be £30 or $42 but it is 400 pages…

Two weeks left until our Call for Papers closes for the 7th International Conference on Social Computing (ICSC'26). Please do submit your papers! Optional conference proceedings, great keynote speakers, nice conference dinner @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social, and more. Details: icsc-conf.github.io!

Library staff will be running Library Popup sessions around @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social this term. Today's will be 11:00-12:00 in the Octagon. We can answer any questions you might have about using the Library and wider research assistance. #AskALibrarian

Last month, Ian Jewitt, Senior Research Fellow, and Andy Thompson, Professorial Fellow, brought together a group of economists from Oxford and beyond, with several members of the Global Commission of Modern Slavery, for a one-day workshop in Nuffield College. #NuffieldCollege

Why global aid must be reimagined time.com/7381128/glob... Time Magazine article by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow Andrew Thompson

Growing up unequal: Family background and fertility expectations in the United States doi.org/10.31235/osf... @socarxiv.bsky.social preprint by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social student @martingaedecke.bsky.social and Ana Karalashvili

Nuffield College joins forces with UNHCR on new research exploring how cuts to humanitarian funding can increase refugees’ vulnerability to human trafficking, exploitation, and modern slavery. Read more about the project: buff.ly/Co4se7G #NuffieldCollege #UNHCR

This week's new books! Find them all on the new books display in the First Floor Lobby #NewBooks

The electoral decline of social democratic parties is a well-studied phenomenon. If you want to understand what is happening to Labour, I recommend this (open access) edited volume by the world's leading scholars on this question. Other countries have elections, too. doi.org/10.1017/9781009496810

Many false narratives dominate the discourse around the electoral performance of social democratic parties. With PPRNet we published short, accessible research briefs that debunk myths such as electoral losses to the radical right. politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/progressive-...

Approximate operator inversion for average effects in nonlinear panel models doi.org/10.48550/arX... @arxiv.bsky.social preprint by Jad Beyhum, Geert Dhaene, Associate Member @pcavit.bsky.social and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @weidnerecon.bsky.social

Library staff will be running Library Popup sessions around @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social this term, the next one will be TODAY (Friday 8 May) 13:30-14:30 in the Cox Room. We can answer any questions you might have about using the Library and wider research assistance. #AskALibrarian

✍️ Max: economics.web.ox.ac.uk/article/max-... 📑 Chenchuan: economics.web.ox.ac.uk/article/chen...

Many congrats to Nuffield DPhil students Chenchuan Shi and Max Marczinek for their nominations for @ecb.europa.eu's 2026 Young Economist Prize More info about the nominated papers on @oxfordecondept.bsky.social's website, links below

As in previous years we are so proud of our researchers' contributions showcasing their contributions to demographic science at the @popassocamerica.bsky.social. Now that #PAA2016 has kicked off, see where you can find LCDS researchers here 👇 www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/leverhu...

Are we witnessing the end of two-party politics in Britain? @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social explore what this week’s elections could reveal about the future of UK politics using YouGov data for ITV News. Find out more ⬇️ https://bit.ly/42ioslS

Btw, please do follow @martamiori.bsky.social for the best graphs in the UK elections business (yes, I am biased…) and for the insight and all-round brilliance.

www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DRL580/d... Come and join the fun in Oxford!

Me in Prospect on the 'whisper it quietly' success of normie conservative politicians around Europe.

Thanks again for inviting me to be part of this wonderfully wide-ranging series „The Causes of War“ with Michael Kimmage @kennaninstitute.bsky.social ⬇️

NEW #UofGSpotlight On the Elections: In England and Wales 🚨 We discuss tomorrow's elections in the Welsh Parliament - or Senedd - and local elections in England, and what we might see happen. With guests: @lauramcallister30.bsky.social @profjanegreen.bsky.social Tune in 🎧 uofgspotlight.com

Ten years after the UK’s EU referendum, DPIR's Professor of Politics James Tilley and Professor Sara Hobolt (LSE) launch Tribal Politics: How Brexit Divided Britain in London this week—exploring how Brexit reshaped identity, division, and political life. Read more: https://tinyurl.com/3vrdfs67

My new OA book with Tim Monteath "Doing Open Social Science: A Guide for Researchers" is out from @LSEPress on *14 May* See press.lse.ac.uk/books/e/10.3... It covers how 'open science' approaches can now be fully implemented by both qualitative & quantitative researchers in practical ways

Colliding wars: A systematic review on HIV responses in conflict‐affected settings doi.org/10.1002/puh2... Paper in Public Health Challenges co-auth by Associate Member Mona Ibrahim, Non-Stipendiary Research Fellow Janina Jochim and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow Lucie Cluver

Library staff will be running Library Popup sessions around @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social this term. Today's will be 11:00-12:00 in the Octagon. We can answer any questions you might have about using the Library and wider research assistance. #AskALibrarian

www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... Are we at peak protest or is it possible the two ‘big’ parties are genuinely at risk of being replaced? To understand what’s going on and what may happen, you need to know what’s going on beneath the surface…. Watch our unique short data-driven explainer …

ℹ️ Early May Bank Holiday: all our libraries are open and service as normal except the Bodleian Healthcare Libraries. The Weston Library will close at 5pm. Check your local library website for details: https://bit.ly/4wmHllw

If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!

This week's new books! Find them all on the new books display in the First Floor Lobby #NewBooks

Terrific 🧵 about what has and hasn't happened with US birth rates giving super clear explanations of what different measures can tell us. Another must-read by @drjenndowd.bsky.social

Library staff will be running Library Popup sessions around @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social this term, the next one will be TODAY (Friday 1 May) 13:30-14:30 in the Cox Room. We can answer any questions you might have about using the Library and wider research assistance. #AskALibrarian

The University of Oxford is advertising a Professorship of Economic History, which will be held in the Department of Economics in association with Nuffield College. Closing date 25 May 2026, interviews 26 June. my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru....

I explain the GB picture; why national level fragmentation overlooks the two-sided nature of choices, in work w/ @martamiori.bsky.social and why that REALLY matters. John Curtice on Scotland + Wales, @stephenkb.bsky.social sage insights galore, @benlake.bsky.social the view from Plaid Cymru....

Housing prices and English period fertility osf.io/preprints/so... @socarxiv.bsky.social preprint by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Senior Research Fellow John Ermisch

Least trimmed squares: Nuisance parameter free asymptotics doi.org/10.1017/S026... Paper in Econometric Theory by Vanessa Berenguer-Rico and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow Bent Nielsen #EconSky

Also from Lauren this week, an article about how states use implausible deniability to limit their accountability for aggression, co-written with Kathryn Hedgecock, has been published in Security Studies. ‘Implausible deniability and escalation in the gray zone’ is at doi.org/10.1080/0963...

How do United States domestic politics shape credibility abroad? In a new Foreign Policy op‑ed, Lauren Sukin, Professorial Fellow at Nuffield, argues that persistent polarization, not just individual leaders, continues to undermine trust in the US Read more: foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/23/t...

Exponentially weighted estimands and the exponential family: Filtering, prediction and smoothing arxiv.org/abs/2512.16745 @arxiv.bsky.social preprint by Simon Donker van Heel and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Emeritus Fellow @neilshephard.bsky.social

How effective is it when states claim they “didn’t do it”? Deniability is a common phenomenon in the gray zone. States can make aggression plausibly or implausibly deniable through combinations of transparent or obfuscating actors or means. In new research, we show how this affects escalation. 1/4

The structural roots of the 2023 French riots: Segregation, social disorganization, and local delinquency sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05596755v1 @sciencespo.bsky.social LIEPP Working Paper by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social student @maela-glg.bsky.social and Marco Oberti

In a new Political Philosophy paper, DPIR’s @jasperfriedrich.bsky.social reframes the ideal vs nonideal theory debate as a clash between idealism and materialism—linking critiques of ideal theory to Marx’s idea of “fetishism.” Read more 👇 https://politicalphilosophyjournal.org/article/id/2

Inside Universe 25 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w... @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @melindacmills.bsky.social appeared on this episode of BBC World Service's Discovery to discuss past and recent discourse about population growth patterns and societal collapse. (Segment runs 10:10-13:05)

@politicsoxford.bsky.social’s @laurensukin.bsky.social has co-authored a paper in Security Studies arguing that denials — or hiding state responsibility in conflict (e.g. through cyberattacks or proxy groups) — make escalation more likely, but also more limited: https://tinyurl.com/34fpxur9

How should modern democracies navigate religion and secularism? In a special issue of Democratic Theory, DPIR’s Professor of Political Theory Cécile Laborde shares her insights on one of the most pressing debates in political thought today. Read the interview: https://tinyurl.com/3jz9xk7w

Like last year, I will be teaching "A second introduction to formal political economy" this term. Perhaps some of you are interested in the syllabus. I also just uploaded the first set of slides. Let me know what I got wrong, what is (un)helpful, etc. github.com/jacob-edenho...

Struggling with the "Publish or Perish" grind? Join Prof. Karen O’Reilly for a deep dive into communicating sociology. From ethnographic methods to engaging the BBC, learn how to make your research matter beyond the journal. 🗓️ June 17, 2026 | 09:30 BST Register here: buff.ly/XcE1kX8 #Sociology

Implausible deniability and escalation in the gray zone doi.org/10.1080/0963... Paper in Security Studies by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow laurensukin.bsky.social and Kathryn Hedgecock