The Swingometer is back up and running today after an extended book writing hiatus. I've taken a long look at Reform's May local elections performance, how FPP is now Farage's friend, and why it may get even better for Reform (& worse for Lab & Con) next May: open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

PESTON LIVE - 22/09/2025 👇 Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by: 💼 James Murray MP 🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk 🌏 Aaron David Miller 🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social ➡️ Maria Caulfield #Peston youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...

Welcome to @aksoyundan.bsky.social, who has joined us as Associate Professor in Sociology! 🎉 His research covers religious behaviour, cooperation and trust 🤝 Game theory, statistical and computational methods are amongst his research tools 💻🎲 www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/people/ozan-...

Gaussian transforms modeling and the estimation of distributional regression functions doi.org/10.3982/ECTA... Paper in @ecmaeditors.bsky.social by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Senior Research Fellow Richard H. Spady and Associate Member Sami Stouli #EconSky

This week's new books! Find them all on the new books display in the First Floor Lobby #NewBooks

Outside options and risk attitude doi.org/10.48550/arX... @arxiv-econ-th.bsky.social preprint by Gregorio Curello, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow Ludvig Sinander and Mark Whitmeyer #EconSky

How accurate are high resolution settlement maps at predicting population counts in data scarce settings? doi.org/10.1002/psp.... Paper in Population, Space and Place by Edith Darin, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @ridhikashyap.bsky.social and Associate Member Douglas R. Leasure

Realizing the full potential of Our Future Health through data linkage and trans-biobank efforts doi.org/10.1038/s415... Paper in @natgenet.nature.com by Vincent J. Straub, Stefania Benonisdottir, Augustine Kong and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @melindacmills.bsky.social

Celebrating 25 years of DPIR - Meet our remarkable staff, students, alumni and read more about our world-leading research. 25 in 25 collection: www.politics.ox.ac.u...

Our Director @melindacmills.bsky.social on the 'impotence' of pronatalist policies 📉: “Silver bullets, quick cash & gimmicks won’t change #Fertility.” Read more 👇 www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/what-russians-really-think-about-putins-baby-boom-drive/ #Demography #Policy

Optimal pandemic control strategies and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States doi.org/10.1186/s442... Paper in BMC Global and Public Health by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Non-Stipendiary Research Fellow Nicholas J. Irons and Adrian E. Raftery

Big week for me and the team as "The British General Election of 2024" has now gone into production. The definitive book of last year's landmark election will be hitting stores later this autumn, and is available to pre-order right now! Here's the Amazon page: www.amazon.co.uk/British-Gene...

We're looking for a Project Officer to support two exciting projects: our Bronze reaccreditation application to Athena Swan and the Research Excellence Framework (REF) 📝 Join us! 🔗 my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

Balanced messaging about solar geoengineering does not reduce average support for emissions reductions doi.org/10.1017/XPS.... Paper in @jepsjournal.bsky.social by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Senior Research Fellow @aeggers.bsky.social and 19 others

Ancestral origins of attention to environmental issues doi.org/10.48550/arX... @arxiv-econ-gn.bsky.social preprint by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Nuffield Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow César Barilla and @palaashbhargava.bsky.social

Stable or dynamic? Explaining the development of Muslim and non-Muslim boys’ and girls’ friendship-making across adolescence doi.org/10.1016/j.so... Paper in Social Networks by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow David Kretschmer and @leszczensky.bsky.social

We closed our Monday with a thought-provoking keynote by @ridhikashyap.bsky.social (@ox.ac.uk) on “𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 𝐼𝑛𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝐷𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑.” Her talk highlighted key challenges and opportunities for research at the intersection of gender, demography, and digital data.

Interested in a take that situates the Cook saga -- and concerns about the erosion of Fed independence -- in a broader theoretical framework? Then, check out the updated version of this working paper by @grattonecon.bsky.social and myself. gratton.org/papers/Techn...

Letzte Woche haben wir bei Böll Global den Aufstieg der extremen Rechten diskutiert. Das Gespräch kann man sich jetzt auch hier ansehen. www.youtube.com/live/Gakwgrp...

📊 @mhaslberger.bsky.social, Jane Gingrich, and Jasmine Bhatia explore how exposure to AI shapes social policy preferences in a UK survey experiment. 💡 Their key finding: when faced with AI, people want support, not just protection 🖇️ www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Britain’s white working-class young men are flocking to Reform www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202... @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @benansell.bsky.social comments in this Daily Telegraph article

What Russians really think about Putin’s baby boom drive www.telegraph.co.uk/global-healt... @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @melindacmills.bsky.social is quoted in this Daily Telegraph article

New Open Access paper published in PNAS Nexus! “Ingroup preferences, segregation, and intergroup contact in neighborhoods and civic organizations” with my co-authors Rob Franken, @dingemanwiertz.bsky.social, and Jochem Tolsma. doi.org/10.1093/pnas... Thread below.

This week's new books! Find them all on the new books display in the First Floor Lobby #NewBooks

I wrote a longer essay on how social status matters for far-right support. Many still wrongly associate the far right with the economically left behind. Taking social status seriously also cautions against the idea that deliverism will win back far-right voters. equitablegrowth.org/threats-to-s...

Well I foolishly promised it two months ago, so I had to write it... Behold my analysis of UK immigration policy and my attempt at coming up with some principles that could command public support. It's long (7,000) words because, well, this is complex stuff. So here's a thread... 1/n

Monitoring technology: The impact of body-worn cameras on citizen-police interactions doi.org/10.1162/rest... Paper in @restatjournal.bsky.social by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social student @dacbarbosa.bsky.social Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto-Vieira and Pedro C.L. Souza

📣 New publication in Research in Social Stratification and Mobility! 🔎 Do mothers’ occupation-specific skills shape children’s development? ✅ Yes! When mothers move into jobs with higher skill demands, their kids show stronger skills. Open access here 👉 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🎧: Labour is tanking in the polls. Could a populist U-turn be the answer? @benansell.bsky.social joins the Prospect Podcast to discuss his latest essay with @ellenhalliday.bsky.social and @aloner.bsky.social.

Mining policy reform and civil conflict: Evidence from Myanmar doi.org/10.1016/j.jd... Paper in Journal of Development Economics by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social student Nan Sandi

Introduction to populism essays www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Deta... Paper in Taiwan Journal of Democracy by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Senior Research Fellow Laurence Whitehead

Want to understand the long term drivers of why big business is so unpopular now? (And it’s not just in the US—we trace this phenomenon around the world). Check out our new book coming in January. Too late for Xmas, but what everyone is secretly hoping they get for Valentine’s Day 2026.

Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear: ➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19. ➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted. jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...

Ingroup preferences, segregation, and intergroup contact in neighborhoods and civic organizations doi.org/10.1093/pnas... Paper in @pnasnexus.org by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social post-doc @kasimirdederichs.bsky.social , Rob Franken, Associate Member @dingemanwiertz.bsky.social and Jochem Tolsma

Honored that my thesis was selected for the second place of this year's ECSR best thesis award. I feel very grateful for everyone who supported me during this journey! 😊

Congratulations to Nuffield Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellows Said Hassan and Kasimir Dederichs who have been awarded first and second ECSR Prize for best PhD thesis, respectively, for their Nuffield College DPhil theses! Read more: www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...

💫Very happy to share that my first single-authored paper has been published in @sfjournal.bsky.social. I suggest to combine Life Course Feature Selection with Ñopo decomposition to disentangle which life-course events drive gender inequalities such as Gender Pension Gaps doi.org/10.1093/sf/s... 🧵👇

Good news, the ground floor building work is now complete & Nuffield College Library is able to re-open to external readers! More info here: www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/... or see this 🧵 for some key points... @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social

Congratulations to Rachel Bernhard, Professorial Fellow, on receiving a prestigious European Research Council Starting Grant! Her project, ‘Walls and Wicked Problems: The Role of Complexity in Politics,’ will investigate how complexity shapes political discourse. 🔗 Read more: shorturl.at/5bYBw

De traditionele Grote Drie (niet Ajax, Feyenoord en PSV) hadden in 2003 samen 118 zetels. Inmiddels zijn daar slechts 54 van over. Alle drie hebben ze inmiddels hun conceptprogramma’s gepresenteerd. Een doorlichting op drie thema's, op @decorrespondent.nl: decorrespondent.nl/16344/een-mi...

Opening the autumn season of Rethink with the uncontroversial topic of how to define terrorism. It’s been around since The Terror (c) M. Robespierre. But who should we apply it to now? And what, to provide an example picked out of the air, has it meant for policing Palestine Action?

👏 Congratulations to Associate Professor in Quantitative Political Science Research Methods @rivb.bsky.social - one of the latest recipients of a European Research Council Starting Grant!: ow.ly/Uzwi50WRgOM

🚨New Research 🚨 Ahead of the release of Wave 30 of the BES Internet Panel, the team has examined Labour's decline since the 2024 GE. Labour's support has splintered into mostly indecision or left-liberal parties, but they've also lost their few right-wing voters. 🧵⬇️ tinyurl.com/3m62exph

Reminder. Am Montag diskutieren wir für die @boell.de den Aufstieg der extremen Rechten. Die Veranstaltung ist online (auf deutsch) und man kann sich weiterhin dafür anmelden.

Hostility toward homosexuality remains common in many of the world’s largest countries. For @ourworldindata.org:

my review of Lauren Benton's new book is out now in @lawandhistrev.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Delighted to have the cover story this month on whether there is a left populist solution for Keir Starmer’s Labour. TLDR? Nah, it’s not too long - so read it…

DPIR's @profjanegreen.bsky.social discusses on @itvnews.bsky.social‪ the electoral support and challenges for the Green Party, in the context of their leadership election [2:29-3:09]: ow.ly/U2BA50WP71X

Ich freue mich darüber für den Progressive Voices Award nominiert worden zu sein. Ihr könnt für mich, vor allem aber auch für viele tolle wirklich engagierte Menschen abstimmen. Und etwas über die spannende Arbeit von Brand New Bundestag lernen. brandnewbundestag.de/progressive-...