Major economies increasingly trade in measures that fall outside traditional @wto.org rules. Areas such as AI & digital governance diverge significantly. Research into this phenomenon provides policy recommendations for maintaining an effective global trade system 👉 shorturl.at/7zgMb @trfetzer.com

Methodologically, the estimates on the cost of Brexit despite the heterogeneity point all in a similar direction. There are a few notable outliers, in particular the pro Brexiteer optimism. There is also a notable trend: estimates point to some form of compounding. For local...

Methodologically, the estimates on the cost of Brexit despite the heterogeneity point all in a similar direction. There are a few notable outliers, in particular the pro Brexiteer optimism. There is also a notable trend: estimates point to some form of compounding. For local...

Its now ten years since the UK voted narrowly to Leave the European Union. I have studied how the UK got there through my research for many years now. Evidence is growing that the UK is indeed leveling up, but, by leveling down. Let me introduce the Brexit Cost project:

Rentier topologies...

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It should be clear that asset monetization, e.g. through tokenization, de-facto expands money supply and hence has the risk of becoming inflationary. And of course: it is threatening monetary sovereignty. Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/1905530051988275688

High dimensionality is key…both in outcome measurement that is connected with a robust narrative spine, a deep understanding of the DGP both economically as well as in data space with logic markers like temporal consistency and — with common support in measure theoretic sense…

Brexit cost estimate for Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire: −£14,006m GVA gap in 2023 (−11% vs. no-Brexit path). Synthetic control analysis — Brexit Cost Project. brexitcost.org/itl2/TLJ1.html

🏙️ London takes the single largest hit: ~£70bn GVA loss in 2023 alone, or around 12% below counterfactual TCA imposed full third-country status on the UK for services, i.e. financial and professional services lost single-market access, hitting London the hardest brexitcost.org/itl1/TLI.htm... 5/...

We may also soon have to think very hard about the difference between knowledge creation versus knowledge sharing. Those that genuinely like knowledge creation may not like the "circus" around knowledge sharing. How we can we rethink institutions to overcome this?

🧵 New working paper out today: "Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence as of 2026" with @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social @trfetzer.com & Shizhuo Wang Here's what the data say about who paid the price in these 10 years from the referendum 1/…

We had the G7 summit, but who paid attention who ELSE is there? 🙄

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This is not an upside down checkered rabbit...

Now, the obvious question one should ask oneself is? HOW is this export control being enforced? It must be through a combination of digital ID (how you "log in"), payment rails (how you "pay") & possibly direct or indirect information on your whereabouts (where you "are")...

Useful set of slides. I'd add that survey experiments are often also used for policy advice in ways that overlook the general political equilibrium. The two main issues are that (i) people self-select into the messages they receive (whereas in the experiment they are forced to engage with the

Very helpful thread Context: https://x.com/MarcHvidkjaer/status/2062118023599910922

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Strait of Hormuz, be like...

The business with the business with the state...

It should be obvious that, if behavioral targeting, exploitation of behavioral biases/cognitive limitations prevails, then only a "crowd stochastic noise" revolution can help rebalance power in economies. That is: we need to add more random choices in our day-to-day life.

Pinkland awakens...🌞🔥

Just squeezing a bit of inflation here, and there...

All just... projection issues. Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/1718215115932049871

It will be interesting to see how the next 6 weeks shape up...

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Nice paper! Context: https://x.com/grattonecon/status/2054514699170193726

See here for the central paragraphs of our blogpost. Below, let me draw your attention to two theoretical papers that motivate this.

Sounds like a supranational technocratic body that may appear to have a democratic deficit, anyone? 😊 Context: https://x.com/grattonecon/status/2052344110011519083

In an abstract term, we may be seeing the budding by force of a new "single market" in the east. A new geography demands it.

In light of yet another untargeted fiscally burdensome fossil fuel subsidy, it is worth highlighting some important and related work in theoretical economics. A recently accepted paper in @EconTheory provides a General Theory of Inverse Welfare Functions by Bergstrom and Dodds...

This is a great illustration highlighting transport systems need system- and networked thinking. Emergency measures are costly interventions, but can provide for learning opportunities (bar: narrative shadows), to inform broader system change. Could the paper have done "better"?

This is a complex way of saying sth "simple". So here is another attempt, which, invariably is also "noisy". The paper's core point is that apparent between group heterogeneity may be an artifact of the observed/latent preference-support distribution. That is: the estimated...

This is a complex way of saying sth "simple". So here is another attempt, which, invariably is also "noisy". The paper's core point is that apparent between group heterogeneity may be an artifact of the observed/latent preference-support distribution. That is: the estimated...

@threadreaderapp unroll

So it Literally Is A Dimensionality Issue Lack of Context Knowledge Curse of Hyper-specialization Intergenerational Rabbit Holes Dug Deep Gives Rise to Interdependence Weakened Connective Tissue Unchartered Waters of a New Topology

AI is kind of like quicksand, they push faster, the base keeps eroding unless it comes with huge reprogramming effort. At present old dudes in charge across Europe may be technologists best allies.

Not sure if this is qualifies as good marketing...🫤

⤵️ Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/1905530051988275688

In light of yet another untargeted fiscally burdensome fossil fuel subsidy, it is worth highlighting some important and related work in theoretical economics. A recently accepted paper in @EconTheory provides a General Theory of Inverse Welfare Functions by Bergstrom and Dodds...

👇 Context: https://x.com/edenhofer_jacob/status/2051199692122300809

Societal rules engines will break down. Algorithmic arbitration with auditable rails will enter. I am still at two minds about whether this puts case-law versus civil-law systems at an advantage. I am leaning to the latter.

How it looks... Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/1926230953170452971

Societal rules engines will break down. Algorithmic arbitration with auditable rails will enter. I am still at two minds about whether this puts case-law versus civil-law systems at an advantage. I am leaning to the latter.

AI is kind of like quicksand, they push faster, the base keeps eroding unless it comes with huge reprogramming effort. At present old dudes in charge across Europe may be technologists best allies.

Unfortunately, I continue to see no other path but to induce a status reset. Legacy authority systems are a huge barrier to progress in so many fronts.

What this will do is reinforce the need for digital IDs and digital asset registers... as property rights in the digital realm become assigned, business models of firms that are built on scraping the knowledge commons will disappear. This is a prime threat for some players...

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