We will have to "rewrite history" at scale… when I speak about these issues I highlight how we have been hit with a technology shock that was not paired with expansion of adequate training under high powered incentive and pressures, this was the most...

Specialized value chains circularity The benefits of density.

And alternative here is a changing platform topology, more fragmented and decentralized platforms with smaller communities could produce a similar outcome, but it naturally is contrary to some entities incentives... Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/2038480854356304193

And alternative here is a changing platform topology, more fragmented and decentralized platforms with smaller communities could produce a similar outcome, but it naturally is contrary to some entities incentives... Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/2038480854356304193

Very nice paper Context: https://x.com/JohnRGrigsby/status/2031834022674935938

Provenance and authenticity. This is what we shall be looking for. It is what makes a researchers identity. It provides a glimpse into their soul. Celebrating journeys of discovery is the ultimate pinnacle of enlightenment. We will come to re-value this, but it'll take some time.

Iran is not just a US self-inflicted security crisis. It may also be a mechanism for redirecting China’s trade surplus and to socialize Chinese excess capacity. Tariffs do not eliminate excess capacity. They move it. This oil and petrochemical supply chain shock hits much of...

A brave new world... (?) Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/1998554433580683423

Busy rushin fella he is…

Next paper in this line of reasoning will be about firm boundaries, firm size distribution and brand diversity… Context: https://x.com/edenhofer_jacob/status/2036582516862197869

Specialized value chains circularity The benefits of density.

Events, dear boy, events.

We will have to "rewrite history" at scale… when I speak about these issues I highlight how we have been hit with a technology shock that was not paired with expansion of adequate training under high powered incentive and pressures, this was the most...

Societies have been “hacked”. We don’t know what was let loose in elections since 2012 & in particular around 2016 “events”. Matching in high dimensional space (lookalike audiences around god knows what is measured, latent or incidental) and it can’t even be reproduced.

⬇️ Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/1862893259376226793

Since we are seeing now more "validation" of narratives, using AI to pluck in holes in stories in particular of people that often are involved in lobbying, its worth upping this. We are roughly at that part. I need to improve the write-up to make it more accessible & abstract...

Some very important and subtle points in this thread Context: https://x.com/JohnRGrigsby/status/2031834022674935938

A great book! Context: https://x.com/93vintagejones/status/2032787162228232205

Positive health externalities despite working from home?

Daron Acemoglu has used his language & authority to flag a serious risk: AI could contribute to a breakdown of knowledge transmission and a reduction in the stock of skills. I wanted to share some broader reflections on this topic on dimensions that I think are missing but not... Context:

I sure would hope so... informational boundaries anyone? In Germany, the previous government made sure the mechanical "means" for (more) targeted transfers has been put in place. In the UK, not really.

And here is the knowledge graph representation of the “why”: the I/O linkages of petroleum to downstream uses highlights propagation sharpness. But crude oil is increasingly substitutable in many applications — rare earths, while having a similar graph topology are Leontief… Context:

A planning system that does not capture the land rents build low density communities that are a hard and costly to “run” absent WFH and spatial sorting — they act as a productivity tax on the commons and may be one of the many legacies of feudalism. Context:

It should be self evident that a waning demographic dividend requires a renegotiated social contract.

Homomorphic encryption, self custodianship and informed consent -- these are the three ingredients that will rebalance power and maximize the collective returns from data sharing and will help steward a trust revolution. How so?

We have now the second sharp price signal in less than 5 years to build resilience in food systems. Circular economic solutions around biomass/agricultural waste, manure etc are ready to scale for many countries offering ample opportunities for domestic value chains to emerge.

Crude matters...

Just leaving this here,... this chart was generated last year in spring from Lloyds Shipping/Maritime Casualty Returns PDFs that I one-shot digitized... needs further cleaning but it is worth reading up on the 80s.

Significant MC14 position development from Indonesia. Remember: this is the Ministerial Committee that has rolled over the absence of customs duties on digital/data transfers. Indonesia traded market access for its mostly agricultural sector for its digital autonomy. But, it...

Just leaving this here...

The biggest EV buy signal is being shaped at the moment. And it’s imperative to ensure this does not lead to embodied hydrocarbon demand leakage. In Asia we may now see accelerated capital replacement, Africa get your trade defenses up you don’t want to become a dumping ground

⬇️ Context: https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/2030367086711918915

Expect that, as situation in Middle East calms (not necessarily in Iran but the wider region), as Iranian capabilities have been degraded, the US will pivot further East. The strategic weakening of China's and Russia's allies, along with the stifling of belt-and-road on all...

The work on production networks highlights the signature of the exposure topology of a prolonged energy price shock which affects hydrocarbon adjacent value chains, in particular, synthetic fertilizer. What you see here is how exposure propagates through the network focused on...

At a meta level, all that we are doing in most of science around the human is to learn reaction functions. The human brain is a prediction engine. Humans have evolutionary an ambivalent relationship with risk/surprise. I do think there is ample evidence for this hypothesis. If...

Counting Training Creates Number-Biased Representations in Deep Neural Networks: https://osf.io/356xd

At a meta level, all that we are doing in most of science around the human is to learn reaction functions. The human brain is a prediction engine. Humans have evolutionary an ambivalent relationship with risk/surprise. I do think there is ample evidence for this hypothesis. If...

Chinese PV industry is a great example, but it should not be forgotten that its growth at early stages was mostly export-market led and a big export market was shaped by demand subsidies (at the expense of EU based PV suppliers/producers) who already then had to contend with... Context:

The marvel of Turing-complete programming languages... Context: https://x.com/HenrikTaro/status/2029671865631842376

This paper has, for obvious reasons, become quite relevant again... Context: https://x.com/fetzert/status/1838600691520037294

In line with the O-ring theory in context of AI, I suspect we will actually have MORE coauthored papers, not less. Let's call them knowledge collectives. Co-authorship may imply a perception of "positive governance" around output that individual authorship may not confer.

At a high level we are seeing a repeat of 2022, back then we had the gas price/fuel price spike, cushioned in a fiscally incontinent way. The fiscal blow up of the EPG lead to the Truss mini budget. More pain ensued. All due to a state architecture not ready for the 21st century.

The internet took a turn for the worse when it fragmented into monetized gated communities. LLMs can turn that back around by re-valuing open and decentral websites, the only question is how the decentralized web can sustain itself if LLMs become the gateway (?)

I think its worthy to do a short "explainer" of why or how coding assistants have become so (non-linearly) good at what they do. At a very high level, you can think of this as reinforcement learning "in action". Model complexity or size has not really evolved much in recent...

Great example of legislating for rent protection, it may illustrate the contrast of how such protection may not have been forthcoming for other occupational groups with less representation when they were confronted with labor saving technological change.

Foretold and forewarned. China is at risk of losing 30-40% of its crude access and will be forced to involute as its price shock will be much higher, taking off strain of "China shock". Huge risks & second order implications of clunker-trade into Africa and opportunity for RMB... Context:

An added implication: no children. A demographic strike. Status-based culture, where, as a "landlord" anybody can be a "lord" receiving a government de-risked land rent. Not surprising why some say, why even work hard? Some others simply bugger off for better "value for money". Context:

Now also think through how one can get to Asia from Europe these days. If MENA airspace is shut, if EU carriers cant traverse via Russian airspace, Afghanistan/Pakistan tensions,... or Ukrainian... the corridors are getting incredibly narrow.

T.S. And we will soon see, they will all morph into one. Our sweet productivity suites.

CPU and GPU orchestration symphony at work...