Sure is going to be fun watching many Labour strategists discover next May that the party's electorate in metro areas (and Scotland, and Wales) was in fact centre-left people who believe in centre-left things more than they believe in voting for a Labour party chained to an irresponsible pledge.

Could someone amazing please do this so I don't have to wish it was my side job.

Reposting this for I suspect not the last time in the lifetime of this parliament: renewal.org.uk/blog/public-...

If I had to come down on one golden rule it is - don’t look like an utter shambles and be able to point to some large benefits of you being in office, and those should take priority over all the other marginal considerations.

Exactly this. Public opinion should be a guide as to how to get to a destination, not what the destination should be.

Voters *already* think Labour have broken their tax promises

So much of UK politics seems as a weird tangled misreading of public opinion. Shall we raise tax? Voters won’t like it. But need to deliver for voters and tax rises necessary to for that. Voters need to see change. But cant break promise, because voters. But is a U-turn even worse, because voters?

How we can actually stop the boats There are lessons from the failures of 2021-25 & from what does work. Need workable control to defuse the salience and politics. Worst approach is to increase salience further while doing things that don't work www.britishfuture.org/publication/...

Marvellous piece by @pronouncedalva.bsky.social , this: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Just sitting here imagining the social sciences in the UK with £8 billion. Nope…impossible!

I worry about the 'more than 90 prisoners released by mistake' story for several reasons (more evidence the state is failing, obviously risk to victims, loss of trust) but mostly because we seem to have thought you can erode spending and investment in public services with no cost.

….”the price of putting a roof over your head and food on the table has tremendous electoral potency when people are struggling to do both. Zohran Mamdani may be a shiny new thing, but the moral of these elections is as old as the Appalachian mountains.”

If my network is anything to go by, the first EPSS conference is going to be a massive, enthusiastic success!

Really pleased to see this. So many people, being told that Reform are appealing to young alienated men, think that's a successful appeal. Not so far!

🥺

Elon Must won't stop. I wrote this for @theobserveruk.bsky.social.

Government has published one of those quiet but important documents that might get overlooked as it is not 'newsy'. The headline finding is that £1 of public R&D investment generates £8 in net economic benefits for the UK over the long term www.gov.uk/government/p...

One thing I find really curious is the combination of ‘we can’t risk the triple lock because…voters’ while literally haemorrhaging mid-life voters and not having much more than….’wait for some growth’.

And on a more superficial level, but still loved it, just watched the scene with Kate trying to get into the skin tight sequin dress. Somehow we put up with putting ourselves through these kind of things and then still go and kick a***.

And a context where the "tactical option" on the left was much clearer. Today, if other parties on the left appear as a viable option to defeat *both* Reform and the Labour incumbent in the constituency, this could offer voters a double strategic reason to rally behind them. Tactical voting squared

For the 2024 election, @martamiori.bsky.social and I showed that the left bloc was much more coordinated. This led to extremely efficient votes-seats ratios for Labour and the Liberal Democrats (something that has had far too little attention). But that was in the context of an anti-Tory mood....

It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting. That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.

Somewhat hastily written first thoughts on Caerphilly result www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

I’d caution about reading too much into the strength of the left bloc in Wales over Reform and extrapolating that. Reform’s potential elsewhere is larger than it is in Wales….

By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling. With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.

Broadcasters - especially the BBC - have been working hard to ensure they give a voice to the 25-35% of people willing to vote Reform (and harder groups within that, like anti-asylum protest and Tommy protest) Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics

People have assumed that Reform are mobilising 'non-voters' and thinking, perhaps, of 2016 Brexit voters who don't vote in general elections. Surely some, but I'd bet that they're mainly converting Conservatives who voted in 2017 and 2019 but who sat out the election in 2024 (as so many people did).

We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions. www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...

Who in my bloc can beat the threat on the other side? Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability. Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.

Important to have priorities...

Should be a v simple choice for Badenoch’s LOTO - either withdraw this mad “Idi Amin x 20” mass deportation bill or they should be treated by everyone in politics as what they are - more extreme on immigration than the BNP or any democratic govt anywhere

🚨 New LSE job in political science 🚨 We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy Please share! jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

A policy this expansive would certainly mean mass stripping of permanent residence status from people with ILR (including pensioners and parents of British children) on a scale far beyond anything any democracy has ever done before. There is no public support for such an extreme policy.

This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ‘jam tomorrow’.

Counter-intuitive (but not really) fact of the day Q: In which type of constituency are 2024 Labour voters most likely to currently be defecting to Reform UK? A: Seats held by the Lib Dems

Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.

This helped me today: “Measure risk differently: A project that invites rejection but stretches you is ultimately more valuable than one that succeeds by playing it safe.” Thanks @catherinedevries.bsky.social

Conservatives, @andrewrawnsley.bsky.social is on the money here. There is only one way back, and that is to reclaim competence.

The assumption is that Reform have their - what might have been - ‘don’t knows’ as decideds, which suggests they’re kind of at their ceiling. I think we’ll find out if that’s true pre-post May 2026. Will successes move even more Tories (and non-voters) to think they’re THE party of the right?

What if we assume that the Con>dk and Lab>dk are really Con and Lab voters, respectively? Reform are then slightly over-performing in polls.

Dividing lines in British political competition becoming clearer in how they're trying to counter Reform. For Labour, tolerance, delivery. For Conservatives, hard-right on 'culture' and fiscal prudence on econ. Latter probably the one thing Conservatives still thought to represent, in party image.

Working on something with a typo. The Untied States. Quite.

The policies at CPC aimed at young people's savings are very interesting. They signal a) Conservatives have something to say to younger people (!), but also b) they have something to say to parents and grandparents deeply worried about younger generations. That's smart...

A gem from today: When I say ‘the proof is in the pudding’ it reflects very badly on me and very badly on my institution, because I haven’t said the whole precise phrase. A thousand apologies, University of Oxford.

When I go on ITV, I get back on a train. That’s that. Happy days. When I go on BBC, I receive emails correcting which expressions I use, how I haven’t been strident enough about someone’s political grievance. Used to get a lot worse. Anyone else removed their email address from their webpage?

If the Conservative Party shifts hard-right, as signals around CPC suggest they are, the voters they are targeting might as well vote Reform. Why vote Conservative?! They’re going for a tiny fringe. While the Conservatives could have been the opposition to Labour.

One thing I said is that Badenoch's approach of leaving time to reflect just isn't one Conservatives can afford with half of lost Conservative 2024 votes in this first year going to Reform. It is not a normal period of being kicked out of office and benefiting eventually when the gov fails.

BBC Newscast, with me on Labour’s new strategy, Conservatives needing one, whether ‘economic growth’ should be Labour’s defining mission. www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...

Had the pleasure tonight of chatting with the three brilliant BBC amigos, @adamfleming.bsky.social Chris Mason and Faisal Islam for BBC Newscast. On BBC 1 TV tonight, and podcast tomorrow….

Having spent the last years explaining (banging on about) the importance of feelings of economic security to people and to politics, this was, to me (!), THE line of the PM’s speech on Tuesday….