In which, among other things, I said: yes, Labour needs to coalesce the left vote as its priority but it’s not enough. It needs to be coupled by improvement in economic well-being, financial security, that meets concerns on left and right.

Managed to mangle some numbers I was explaining and will now hate myself for at least a week.

More than 30 years of University teaching and the first teaching day still makes me anxious. Though at least I no longer need a 3000 word script to get in the room (never read it, or even took it out of my bag, pure security blanket).

I think we need to start having advent calendars that begin on 1st October* *Yes teaching does start tomorrow

One of the factors that allowed the LibDems to see off Change UK in 2019 was the later were not ready to fight local elections that year. Could 2026 locals be a similar dynamic for Greens Vs YP?

Anyone got any recent fun polling - always start my Public Opinion unit with VI and something utterly unrelated. Last year I had @moreincommonuk.bsky.social's VI by Traitors type. And of course whether King Kong or Godzilla would win a fight.

You can also achieve this by setting aside a day to update a reading list.

For various reasons (lack of alternatives in NHS, cost of private therapy) I've been gently investigating AI as a tool for self-therapy, and it has been an absolute revelation. I've made more progress in three 30 minute 'chats' than in all the counselling I have ever been offered.

This doesn't look at all like a still from The Handmaid's Tale..

Big week for me and the team as "The British General Election of 2024" has now gone into production. The definitive book of last year's landmark election will be hitting stores later this autumn, and is available to pre-order right now! Here's the Amazon page: www.amazon.co.uk/British-Gene...

Three nights in Morecambe in the rain is seriously testing my affection for down at heel seaside towns

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Also what is happening in Lancaster and why are the hotels full tonight and tomorrow 🤬

For all the advances in AI the booking app still can't work out that if I am searching for Lancaster hotels for tonight while in the UK I probably mean Lancaster UK not Lancaster in the US.

Do I have anyone on here with knowledge of how hospitals respond to a patient admitted after a suicide attempt who could DM me and offer some advice. No cause for alarm I'm fine.

Looks like fun at Old Trafford tonight 🏏

The framing of this Labour deputy leadership election is just ludicrous. "We need a northern woman". Like, guys, the basis of Rayner's appeal to wasn't just "a woman from north of Birmingham". It's that she was working class, rose from an impoverished childhood, was a care worker and union rep...

I'd quite like to see an estate agent's view of the £800k flat Rayner bought in Brighton vs the £800k four-bedroom house Farage didn't buy in Clacton.

This is interesting data, would be even more interesting to break down by which of these people think are the most important issue (though can infer some from the vote/mii relationship)

Follow Miranda - she's wise and writes great stuff.

🥳 Many congratulations to @cbarnard.bsky.social, @fionacostello.bsky.social and @sarahfraserbutlin.bsky.social - their book 'Low-Paid EU Migrant Workers: The House, The Street, The Town' won the @uaces.bsky.social Best Book Prize at the annual conference last week. More: bit.ly/4nrPb8e

Both very happy to see this happening but also a bit 😱 that I will very definitely not be (actively) studying elections when they are old enough to vote.

Doing some analysis of the shiny new @britishelectionstudy.com Some really interesting differences between those who voted Reform in 24 and still intend to and those who voted Labour in 24 and have since moved to Reform (or the Greens). Diffs which point to ways to glue a coalition together.

This is the way in which Reform are weird, they import US politics and it doesn't all fly in the same way in the UK. Trust the NHS protects against vaccine conspiracy.

One of the factors that allowed the LibDems to see off Change UK in 2019 was the later were not ready to fight local elections that year. Could 2026 locals be a similar dynamic for Greens Vs YP?

Not sure driving to #epop25 was the best choice, temptation to just carry on to the coast is very strong.

Start of September cross checking kids school schedules and events against work schedules, realising it doesn't work. Then reading posts on why people aren't having so many kids.... honestly it's a mystery.

This is key. During the 22-24 period the Con - DKs were high with many thinking they would return 'home' come polling day but they did not. Labour can't take comfort from the fact they are losing some voters to DK rather than other parties

IT'S OUT! @ukandeu.bsky.social brand new survey of the policy challenges confronting the UK, done in partnership with the wonderful @resfoundation.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli... 1/???

The Government is doing its best at the moment to imply it has no problem with the ethnonationalism now rearing its ugly head. And I don't understand why. 1/5

"Watching in silence as Reform UK dominate the airwaves and appear to win the arguments is not going to alter this direction of travel." @anandmenon.bsky.social reflects on Reform's migration policy and the Labour Party's response for @the-independent.com 🔒 www.independent.co.uk/voices/farag...

🚨NEW DATA 🚨 The BES team are pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Random Probability Survey Release v1.0.0 You can download the data here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/... You can find our release note here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...

Ack, social media just isn't much fun anymore is it. We're just fooling ourselves any of the available options are actually good platforms for sharing work.

The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024. A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.

These are the kinds of proposals that could squash the ceiling on Reform vote back down again.

There are important elections in Scotland and Wales next year. There is no election for UK Prime Minister next year. It is far from clear at this point how results from the elections actually happening, how they change politics will change actions and narratives more widely.

Normal British politics posts to resume shortly, til Summer 2027 😀

Longest day ever, but he is in - onwards to his goal of defeating the far right.

After what felt like the longest 24 hours of my life, he easily exceeded the requirements for his course and all his predicted grades, but we still have to wait another 24 hours to see if it was by enough to clear the oversubscription criteria as well. The system really sucks.

I'm not entirely convinced 'Your party' has any meaning to voters at all yet, and might be interpreted as 'insert your own party here' but if we take at face value then 'Your Party' hurts Reform/Labour and Greens equally which would be quite surprising.

Oh we've reached the point where I am dreaming of sitting English Language GCSE, but with the twist of changing chairs halfway through and having to cross out everything the first person had written (and of course it being better than mine).

I recall there were many other parents of Year 11's during the exams. Hope everyone is holding up ok in the wait for results. So far this has been the longest week of the year already.

Quite a few people pointing out Reform voters as outliers here but also some nuance there. Prefer Zelenskyy to Trump and have negative overall for Vance. One word of caution though - these are 2024 Reform voters not those currently saying they'd vote Reform.

I'm just glad there's slightly longer to finish the paper! This hot weather plays havoc with my summer schedule.

Trying to get a train home from Cardiff after yesterday's cricket is proving an adventure. Definitely converting my youngest to a 'we should just drive' mindset.

Feeling very smug in my seats on the *shade* at Edgbaston. Bring on The Hundred

❗Calling all social scientists ❗ 🔎 Want your work to get noticed by non-academic audiences? Our blog page provides clear and insightful analysis on topical issues, especially UK-EU relations🇬🇧🇪🇺 Got an idea? Send it to [email protected] Check out our latest blogs 👉 ukandeu.ac.uk/analysis/blo...

🚨New book alert!🚨 Thrilled to announce that my @britishacademy.bsky.social Monograph, 'Capital, Privilege, and Political Participation,' will be published via @livunipress.bsky.social later this month. Find details and pre-order (with discount) here: liverpooluniversitypress.co.uk/doi/book/10....

Something to think about, the 'newest' party Reform UK seems to have the sort of party attachment among its supporters that we have often thought to be an artifact from the 1960's two party system

Clearly an important point, but I'm not sure we should think about this as taking votes (or Labour losing votes) in the context of a base-line that includes lots of 'tactical' voting. (It's very difficult to unravel this but maybe we need to shift how we think about past vote)