Very similar to the More in Common figures on the same hypothetical yesterday.

Nothing I have done today has been able to shift my mind from the idea it is Friday, so could we just say it is and have two Saturdays this week?

I regularly visit Burnham on Sea and so my timelines are currently very confusing.

Burnham 'allies' are aware he needs to win a by election where Greens will also be standing aren't they?

This (and the followup post) rather emphasise what @benansell.bsky.social has been saying about Labour being in the lead if they hadn't annoyed so many of the voters on the left.

Every player the ref spots wrestling should have to be outside the penalty box until the corner is taken.

Perhaps women and those who don't own property as well while they're at it

According to today's @yougov poll the Green party are out polling Labour among those aged under 49, those in routine occupations and those who voted LD in 2024.

What if we don't take the special circumstances of a by-election triggered to change party leadership as a measure of how well that party might do in a general election in 2-3 years time?

"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."

NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week? @persuasionuk.bsky.social has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵

Almost as if economics and social values interact

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇

So we look to be heading to the Summer 2022 period of the 24-29 parliament.

Not now Labour party, Spurs about to Spurs again.

The evidence that changing prime minister can help win you a majority at the next general election is, shall we say, mixed. Yes: Eden to Macmillan, Thatcher to Major, May to Johnson. No: Macmillan to Home, Wilson to Callaghan, Blair to Brown, Cameron to May, Johnson to Truss, Truss to Sunak.

The FT seems to have missed the large donations to the party from 'posh george's' Mum.

Should probably be more talk in commentary about the LibDems, quietly holding on to the places taken from the Conservatives over the last 4 years and as a result potentially at a GE stopping a Reform/Con coalition being possible.

This was my take on the 2025 locals, apart from Labour having alot more to lose this time and the specific results I don't think there's very much different to say now. www.politicshome.com/news/article...

I spent way too long this weekend correlating 81 census variables with local election results, so you don't have to. Enjoy! datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QQQ3D/7/

I may be wrong but in terms of public perceptions I'm not sure appointing more figures the public associate with the last Labour government is likely to be seen as a reset. Let's hope it is a case of the proof of the pudding being in the outcomes.

Five days since the first attempt it has now taken 4 hours just today to manage to get 5 blood pressure tablets on an emergency prescription for my Mum via NHS111 - I think I might know why the over 55's are pissed off all the time. A whole working day this week to get 5 trivial tablets

What a flashback. England footballers on #totp singing We'll fly the flag waving Union Jacks. 1982

Have been making this argument for ages, the BES data suggests few would vote *against* the Lib Dems which in a negative partisanship driven situation isn't a bad place to be.

I picture this like playing the board game Risk, they've got enough pieces in this zone now they can start moving onto adjacent squares.

Recommended reading to my polisci friends interested in polarization. A sociologists’ take on it focusing on status, an omitted variable in most of the lit. And with experiments!

However the fall in Labour's vote (since 2022) is more strongly correlated with change in the Green vote than Reform over the same period.

I think I could probably have written more or less the same piece as last year but that would be cheating so here's some different words on the same theme www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Anyone want a game of 'pin the result on the chart' (not as catchy as tails on donkeys I admit) with this one I made for last years locals?

Although there are some reports of higher than usual turnout, local election turnout isn't high and is quite distinctive in being older, more likely to be owner occupiers and likely to have higher levels of political engagement.

We won't hear much about it but there does seem to be a loss on independent councillors, probably reflecting the wider options for the 'none of the above' voter.

For the LibDems, standing still in terms of councillors (or perhaps even small gains) should be seen as a good result when the system in fragmenting even further and there are more options on most people's ballot papers.

I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle

Fragmentation is not just about the electorate it is about the options available to them. Far more options for candidates beyond the 'big two' allows preexisting divides to express themselves more fully

No polling station reports here, no elections today. Had a scroll through my county councillor's facebook page though so I can be equally depressed

Have to go chasing prescriptions again but the pharmacy website isn't giving much reassurance

Was telling students last term I thought there was a reasonable chance of Reform topping the poll but Plaid forming the government - the really worrying thing is what that could lead to in terms of narratives about the legitimacy of the government.

Listen! @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social talks to @robfordmancs.bsky.social & @psurridge.bsky.social coauthors (with @drjennings.bsky.social & @timbale.bsky.social) of the fantastic The British General Election of 2024 newbooksnetwork.com/the-british-...

Overheard yesterday: one person said they hadn't driven to the match in case they were still over the limit and another replied they'd worked in construction for a decade and it was zero tolerance on alcohol and drugs. Came home to the MPs and drinks discourse.

NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇

Presume someone has told them many schools don't have lockers for all pupils.

More accurately some of the public might see a small snip of 'angry Starmer' on a news broadcast this evening.

Well I learned from this why our entire team ended up at the wrong King George V playing fields for a kids football match. I hope in years to come a similar confusion occurs about Queen Elizabeth II hubs

Someone a bit trigger happy with the sub head here

I've spoken before about this happening in my own family - but it started a really long time ago. It didn't start in lockdown, I am trying to work out when it did but I certainly remember speaking about the impact of Facebook before the 2017 GE.

Knife crime! Pronouns! Meat bans! Some political issues lead to "hotter", more emotional and polarizing debates than others. We show how these "trigger points" reveal a contested structure of moral expectations and how they get weaponized by polarization entrepreneurs. OA @bjsociology.bsky.social 🧵

As I noted yesterday, if Labour had not lost so many votes to the Greens and Lib Dems they would be AHEAD of Reform in the polling and the narrative would look extremely different. I also suspect May will be Reform's ultimate peak in electoral success. But will Labour now be the beneficiaries?

Four weeks to go! 🗳️ We'll be publishing analysis on our blog every Thurs + Tues, looking at data beyond the immediate horse-race 🏇📊 First up, @cjcarman.bsky.social on what Scots think about changes to voting rights in recent years! scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/09/e...

That it comes mostly from Reform voters means it probably isn't just 'noise' from an additional option but the chances of both Reform and Restore having candidates everywhere seem low (at the moment - Reform standing everywhere also seemed unlikely this far out from the last election).

He's going to have such a strop next year when he doesn't get a Nobel prize for opening the Straits