Useful graphs for when I teach the power of partisanship in a few weeks. Here is a force which can get 20% of the US public to see Canada (!) as an enemy overnight, based on nothing at all beyond the brain farts of a deranged party leader

Sunak told BBC last year he found Mr Kisin's comment "he's brown and Hindu, how can he be English?" ridiculous "Of course I'm English, born here, brought up here. On this definition, you can't be English even playing for England, let alone supporting them... I genuinely thought it was ridiculous"

Leaflet wars just stepped up a gear: Mill reveal Reform UK have broken electoral law manchestermill.co.uk/exclusive-re...

In a remotely sane universe, this would be disqualifying and career-ending. The political world would recoil, and the fundamental decency of the America people would be outraged. The raw rancid racism is neither a joke nor a close call. In Trump’s world… open.substack.com/pub/charlies...

Those are the hardest working scare quotes in the business. What is the goddamn bar for calling something racist without qualification if monkey videos don’t make the cut?

Everytime I can remember a PM changing in the middle of a parliamentary term people have tried to make a claim like this and it has arguably only actually happened the one time the PM in question literally started booting MPs out of his party when he didn't even have a majority.

Who wrote these questions, Peter Mandelson??

I am not lying Baxter, and evidently you have not read either my article or my full thread - in both of which I explain the ways in which this bar chart is misleading. I would suggest doing your basic research before making strong accusations.

Ian McKellen performs “The Strangers’ Case” speech from “Sir Thomas More” on Colbert.

Professional wrestling crowd erupts into chants of "FUCK ICE"

Core British Values that Starmer seems to have missed, www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffCl...

Just updating some lecture slides - not often the lecturer can use himself as a case study...

Enjoyable poll finding. c25 per cent of people have an unfavourable opinion of of Keir Starmer’s performance as prime minister but think he should stay as prime minister.

I was on BBCR4’s Rethink today talking with @benansell.bsky.social about political authenticity Research links to follow. With co-authors @viktorv.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social, @jmoss88.bsky.social, @danjdevine.bsky.social, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

By-election bar charts, off-licence edition

The Swingometer has been endorsed by PopBitch! I can retire happy now...

We've reached the "Maurice Glasman showed better judgement than the PM" stage of this crisis. Not sure there's any way back from that...

May 2012. The height of the Eurozone crisis. Peter Mandelson was very focussed:

If you were looking for an exposition of what British values *could* be you could do a lot worse than Ian McKellen wielding Shakespeare like a rapier.

Stop treating stupid opt in polls like this as if they mean anything.

The Al Carns stuff is nuts. He's not even been an MP for two years. He's not even a Minister of State. Parliamentary - and ministerial - careers have become accelerated recently, but not *that* accelerated.

On 1 May 1517, xenophobic mobs, riled up by preachers who were in turn pressured by wealthy broker John Lincoln, rioted in London. They claimed that foreigners were stealing their jobs and welfare. Thomas More, then under-sheriff of London, tried to stop the mob with an empassioned speech.

Doesn't seem like the best day for Starmer to reheat "you lefties [on the backbenches/in the Labour membership/in the Labour electorate] just don't get it" Blue Labour type arguments?

HOW? HOW DOES THE BBC "UNDERSTAND" THESE THINGS? Ouija board? Cup attached to a piece of string?

New paper out at @electoralstudies.bsky.social. I show that - contrary to claims that personalised electoral systems are good for participation - Open Lists have no effect on turnout relative to Closed Lists; in fact, they increase rates of voter error. 🗳️ www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

🌀It's safe to say that UK politics is in flux 🌀 Join our expert panel @anandmenon.bsky.social, @sophiestowers.bsky.social, Rachel Wolf and @drjennings.bsky.social as they unpack the latest in UK politics 📆 Tues 10 Feb, 1pm GMT 💻 Online Sign up now 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

There is understandable Schadenfreude at the Reform councils' failure to cut council tax. But it highlights a problem with local democracy which we should all be concerned about. You can't have meaningful local democracy when 75% of budgets are spent on statutory duties. 🧵

Weird and almost universal revisionism today. Even at the time, it was pretty clear that Mandelson wasn't appointed *despite* his dodgy links but *because* of them. Trump's Washington is a dirty swamp. Mandelson was deemed a man able to swim in it. This wasn't a secret. Everybody said it out loud.

The Home Secretary several times says she thinks 5 years is "quite short" and "quite quick". Views differ - but the BSA finds that the general public tend to see 5 years as fair: over 80% of people tend to think 5 years is fair natcen.ac.uk/publications...

Had forgotten until reading @duncanrobinson.bsky.social’s peerless column that Peter Mandelson once publicly said Keir Starmer was too fat.

UPDATE - I have now received a reply from the Greens apologising for the oversight in using my image and quote without consulting me and giving assurance it won't happen again. That's good enough for me, so I won't be taking any further action beyond writing it all up for my Substack

I have yet to receive a reply to this from anyone in the Green Party - my image and quote appear under the title "Everyone Agrees, Labour Are Done!". As the excerpt from the same article quoted here I reproduce below makes clear, I do not "agree". This clearly misrepresents my views.

First post from me for a while on my occasional Substack, about Labour's earned settlement proposals and the damage they will do. open.substack.com/pub/wewanted...

This isn't on. Quoting academics without their permission sounds like an endorsement. And that's not a political point - it's just common decency. And don't quote me on that.

If only there had been some sign he was like this @roberthutton.co.uk

Drastic change in Man Utd's fortunes since they ditched a leader who obstinately stuck to a plan his team didn't like and which was clearly not delivering results. May be a lesson there...

Not a great position either for the Labour councillors and devolved legislators who look set to lose their jobs in May

The guy who owns Amazon shutting down the books section of the Washington Post is beyond parody

Excellent article but stark reminder that for all the perceptions of universities as ivory towers for elites, they are actually vital hubs in towns n cities supporting local businesses and providing key services as well as education….

From my 2026 predictions thread, made over the Xmas break:

Estimating pollster house effects for a Hungarian poll tracker. Quite revealing!

This is precisely what I worry about in this fragmented context. All kinds of selective uses of evidence (and in this case, out of context quotations) to make a case for the likely scenario in a seat. I'd be horrified (as Rob is) if my words were used like this.

Just a quick note to @greenparty.org.uk and @greenpartyhan.bsky.social - I was not consulted on being quoted on your leaflets and I have not endorsed your campaign (or any campaign in this seat). I think this note, like the bar chart next to it, is misleading and out of context.

Morning all, here's my latest Swingometer, an update on Gorton & Denton now we know the full candidate roster. Wrote this before the latest Mandelson revelations, which I suspect will play into the populist, anti-government narratives of both Labour's main opponents in this contest

Bottom line: Economics seminar culture isn’t gender-neutral. In elite research settings, women face systematically different treatment that could affect their evaluation, visibility, and career trajectories.

Absolutely no one will be shocked by the answer

We're pushing hundreds of thousands of kids back into poverty so a bloke drinking 20 pints a week can save a quid