The Wikipedia graphic version of the Columbian Exchange is somehow hilarious. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbi...

The gilt market of course does not get a vote. At the moment this is mostly vibes rather than considered analysis. The vibes absolutely, 100% matter but medium term I can’t see Burnham/Rayner/Miliband/Streeting/etc making an especially large difference to the gilt market. www.ft.com/content/3e1c...

“With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period”. www.iea.org/reports/oil-...

Nothing new in the chart. But always striking to see. www.ft.com/content/1bbd... Why global imbalances matter

www.maptap.gg May 13 98🎯 98🎯 96🔥 98🎯 97🔥 Final score: 973

Good piece by ex-BBC News boss Deborah Turness, doubt established newsrooms can move fast enough though. This is basically the shift that's happened and as she says I think the real challenge is how you fund original investigative reporting if this is the news. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Smart, nuanced threat on the points of similarity and difference between the Tribune contributions published by @renewaljournal.bsky.social, and the long manifesto published by @labourgrowth.bsky.social

Apparently all of my children think George Ezra only does “kids’ party music” and have him in the same broad category as Baby Shark.

Bumping up from the replies.

Initial FOMC reviews are in *GOOLSBEE: WE HAVE AN INFLATION PROBLEM IN THIS COUNTRY

Good question. A possible answer is railways. Hertfordshire is better connected to London by rail than any other county in south-east England (using a normal person's definition of south-east England, i.e. the bit in the bottom right corner, not the formal region). www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Social care reform, immediately. Bon the commission, give task force 3 months to propose final recommendations building from Dilnot proposals, implement immediately with penny on basic and higher rates of income tax to pay for it. Immediately transforms local govt fortunes too…

What I really don’t get at the moment is the case for Starmer carrying on. You can’t put the tooth paste back in the tube. The last 72 hours have happened. I just don’t see how he can govern with the last of his political capital gone.

I tend to think raw politics usually trumps procedure and rulebooks in these situations.

Due to a series of unfortunate events I have just drunk half a cup of coffee with a strong dash of added olive oil. Would not recommend.

“The question is not simply what the optimal fiscal framework looks like, but how reform can be sequenced in a context of elevated borrowing costs and heightened market sensitivity”. V interesting, lots to agree with. renewal.org.uk/articles/a-n...

Mad. The BOE isn’t hiking three times this year.

I can sort of imagine Starmer, in a very procedural way, making the cabinet go through the pre set agenda today. Followed by a lively any other business discussion.

Quotes from the day after the trial of Thomas More

Been a while so thought I'd check out the Persimmon costs and operating profit per housing plot data. Big rise in build costs and operating costs since 2022. Current operating profit is effectively just the house price inflation since 2021. Land costs flat for a decade.

Blair, 2001 to 2005, was the last PM to win a majority at a general election and serve a full Parliament.

Has there ever been such a pointless King’s Speech as the one planned for Wednesday?

As @jomichell.bsky.social & @tomashirstecon.bsky.social say - hard to see a solution without raising the basic rate of income tax (or, as an alternative VAT). There’s a good case to couple that with some sort of wealth tax. Whilst accepting that a wealth tax isn’t a stand-alone solution.

Also applies to any Starmer successor. If they can't grasp the nettle on personal taxation, they are DOA.

If one was being deeply cynical, one might not think the Saudis were desperate to see the Strait reopened. www.ft.com/content/19c0... Saudi Aramco profits rise as oil price surge and pipeline offset Iran war hit

Just superb stuff. Sure, why not? Drive more. That’ll help.

Humiliation or (increasingly futile) escalation. Those have always been the choices, they are still the choices. The only question now is what the political psychology of Trump himself will mean for the path he chooses. Declaring a piece of paper a "win" is getting harder, he's cornered and angry.

Philip Bunn‬, @nickbloom.bsky.social, @paulmizen.bsky.social, Gregory Thwaites, & @iyotzov.bsky.social use survey data to show that UK firms now expect higher prices and lower margins, especially among energy-intensive firms, since the start of the Iran war. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

(1) Starmer obviously has to go. (2) The Catherine West plan is mad. Best outcome now would be a half dozen plus cabinet ministers telling Starmer to set out a timetable to stand down or they resign.

I think decent speech - good delivery, rhetorically fine, although very policy light. But a pretty grim question and answer session so far.

Excellent matter of fact question on policy by @pickardje.bsky.social. Non-answer from Starmer far more damning than any of the ones intended to be gotchas.

Somebody ask him if the manifesto red lines remain. This is the only question that matters.

Stories do beat spreadsheets. But the trick is not to say that. When did you last read in a novel “I shall now employ a narrative device to move the plot on”.

After the 'make or break' PM speech, commentary may move on to the 'make of break' King's speech on Wednesday. But how easily can you make changes to that at this stage? Small, but significant changes, maybe. Wholesale change not so much.

Completely right. I think Churchill makes a lot more sense as a late Victorian, who still fundamentally saw the world as a late Victorian would - who happened to be prime minister in the mid twentieth century.

The Starmer government started to go wrong - economically - within weeks of taking office. Business and consumer confidence - both which had enjoyed a post election bounce - fell quite sharply over the summer and into autumn. Mostly because of a drumbeat of negative noises from the government.

It’s not a reset. He’s going to argue for the importance of making ‘big arguments’. Presumably a three part plan. 1. Make the argument for big arguments. 2. Make the big argument. 3. Maybe, at some point, perhaps act on the argument.

Reading Steven Sears’ Gettysburg. A story I hadn’t heard before:

Didn’t see any of the afternoon session. Which was the best Durham bowling of the year so far. Turned on YouTube in time to see a first over Durham wicket. Worried I’d cursed them. But looking pretty solid now.

Yes, I’m taking this out of context… but this the entire problem in half a sentence: “Starmer was hoping to save his job with a speech”

Army parachutes onto remote island to help Briton with suspected hantavirus www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

There is no more wholesome way to start your Sunday than with circa 70 5-7 year olds learning cricket.

It’s the final day of @prospectmagazine.co.uk paywall holiday! Have a free read of my piece on the baby bust, the coming natural shrinkage of Britain’s population — and eventually the world’s www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

Some things to bear in mind for politicians considering spouting nonsense about gilts (again) Me, 300 free clicks: - as.ft.com/r/031c1f71-5...

New post: "Seven things we learnt from the elections" We found out a lot about how multi-party politics is working in Britain over the last few days. I look at the implications for all the main parties + the broader challenges for our system. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/seven-thin...

Started playing this catfishing.net this week. Guess ten wiki articles from their categories. Very tricky. But quite satisfying.

Napoleon Dynamite with the eldest. A film which has aged very well.

The answer to every public policy question is not always “some sort of, ideally off-balance sheet, special purpose financing vehicle”. www.ft.com/content/cffa...

Durham need a big innings from someone here.