Compared to a month ago: UK 2yr yield +98bp, FTSE All Share down 8.3% German 2yr +67bp, DAX down 10.6% US 2yr +54bp, S&P 500 down 5.7%. Proper moves. Hard to say markets aren’t taking this seriously but also hints at differing degrees of pain.

Obviously good news. On the other hand, the youngest’s Wendy House literally got blown across the garden yesterday. It was quite windy.

The actually optimistic sign of progress today: they might be very far from agreeing anything but the Iranians have at least confirmed they are negotiating via third parties.

Saw a load of Trump headlines. Checked the oil price. Decided I didn’t need to urgently read the headlines.

When economic historians write about “the 2020s” in a few decades time, a lot of them will lump together the pandemic, Russia/Ukraine, tariffs and Iran as a series of shocks in a short space of time. Six years feels like an age when you live through it, but it’s a blink in historical terms.

Id balcony solar worth it? Friend of Nesta’s sustainable future mission John Ewbank has run the numbers and it looks… surprisingly good? He reckons it costs £400 to buy and could save him £145 a year (admittedly in favourable conditions). It also sounds very easy to do!

I can absolutely see the argument on China/Taiwan that the US depletion of munitions and redeployment of assets increases risks. But ultimately, if I was in Beijing I think my take away from the Gulf War, like my takeaway from Russia/Ukraine, would be ‘wars are hard even against a weaker opponent’.

Fate! Class! Rap! Duels! We're watching Stanley Kubrick's Barry Lyndon, hated on release but now adored, not least for its memes. Drooling over the camerawork is @bondhack.ft.com And after a fan claims to be under 30, the hunt is on for our youngest listener... champ.ly/iAEuhIf4

The Axios headlines and stories every day seem both well sourced and mutually contradictory. Which is, I guess, a reflection on US thinking.

The worst outcome, I suppose, would be the Iranian officials that the White House is negotiating with turning out to be a Canadian stand-up comic using a dodgy accent. Worrying with each passing day how out of hand the joke has become.

Truth Social has perhaps the worst user experience of any social media website. One of many things I resent in 2026 is having to go there to find out what the President is saying.

The OECD downside scenario is quite moderate. And still means a nasty hit. www.oecd.org/content/dam/...

I don’t know how seriously to take the (still quite new) BRC series. But this really is quite worrying. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

I maintain my focus by pretending the ONS does not release monthly GDP numbers and HBO is not making *that series*.

How to survive an energy crunch My column this week in the @financialtimes.com 1st 300 clicks free to read... as.ft.com/r/6858da98-f...

I suppose it’s technically a sort of regime change. The Revolutionary Guards are taking over Iran economist.com/middle-east-... from The Economist

Good chart. www.ft.com/content/bc60... Iran war tests Donald Trump’s tolerance for ‘pain’ in oil market

I’m not actually sure this is true - a lot of coal plants are going to be getting fired up across Asia.

Good scoop. www.ft.com/content/9d18... Scott Bessent discussed ways to recast ties between Federal Reserve and Treasury in Bank of England’s image

Been looking forward to this. Finally making a start.

Going back through my photos. Genuinely can’t remember why I asked AI to make me Totoro Wolff.

New type of WFH. Warfare from hotels. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

I’ve read the book. The book is good. But obviously what I really want now is the album.

Two brief but intense hail storms today. Perfectly timed for school drop off and pick up.

Top tip to news organisations: just use “volatile” in your headlines. Much easier than changing “rises” to “falls” every 90 minutes.

All the talk of sending Vance to Islamabad to negotiate the end of the war feels a bit ‘De Valera sending Collins to negotiate the Treaty’.

It is impossible to eat ramen without making a mess.

This is v good. Although: the thing about trying to Maradona rate expectations is that most footballers aren’t in fact Maradona.

The four editions out at the moment.

I’m in two minds on the Rutte stuff. It’s clearly cringeworthy and embarrassing. On the other hand it does seem to have defused Greenland and if anyone is going to be doing it maybe better the head of NATO than an elected leader? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Book publicity scam watch. Three in an hour! A new record.

Must read. A military strategy guy writes: “There is a frequent mistake, often from folks who deal in economics, to assume that countries will give up on wars when the economics turn bad.“

I think central bank reaction function here is very non-linear. Short term spike in inflation driven by disruption: look through. Medium term rise in inflation: hike to control expectations. Major spike in inflation driven by lasting war: growth fears dominate, cut.

Varsity was the biggest one day airborne operation of the war. Much larger than the better known Market Garden, Normandy and Crete operations.

If you were being super bearish you might point to slightly stronger core inflation than expected. But I’m not sure there’s really much news in this Feb inflation report given what we expect in the March numbers. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...

relative risk-reward. if this is the end of the war and you stay short stocks/long oil you're screwed. if it isn't, you're not going to gain a ton near-term. so the incentive is to take it at face value to avoid downside skew. doesn't mean the price action will hold.

Been an interesting debate over the last couple of years about how easy or not it is to shift civilian manufacturing facilities to defence equipment. www.ft.com/content/1e41... VW to shift from cars to missile defence in deal with Israel’s Iron Dome maker

Any guesses? A giant wooden horse maybe?

Normally, I’d reckon very publicly moving elements of the 82nd into the theatre is an attempt to build pressure for talks. But because obviously if you wanted to use them, you’d keep it quiet. But ‘normally’ is doing a lot of work here.

Okay this is pretty good.

Good policy, good comms. I don't think DESNZ's video game gets enough love on here - it's excellent

Lead story on Bloomberg: Stocks bounce from lows on hopes for US-Iran talks. Second story: Gulf states weigh military options to counter Iran’s escalation, Third story: Israel presses on with Iran strikes at ‘full intensity’.

Can’t read a word of it but this is very pretty.

1. No it isn't wishful thinking to be talking about "Peak Reform" 2. Conservative revival, what now? 3. This Iran/Trump stuff is really not great for the right... 4. Whoooooooooosh Greens 5. Very healthy spread for a first past the post system, no issues whatsoever, nothing to see here

“The only forecast that can be made with confidence is that the international reserve system will continue to evolve”. cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Need to buy a new toaster. My wife has given a list of criteria, so I can’t follow my usual approach of googling “toaster” and choosing one priced around the 50th percentile on the grounds that is probably fine.

Feels a bit like we are back in a holding pattern on the macro, waiting to see what happens next. Reminds me of a couple of weeks ago when we got the first Trump ‘it’s almost done’. The difference being we’ve had two more weeks of the Strait being closed. Cumulative damage still happening.

The David Byrne cover of Paramore’s Hard Times is so good. Paramore’s Burning Down The House cover also excellent.

Used a train journey to read the FT, Bloomberg, NYT and Economist reporting on the war and today’s developments. My conclusion: no one really knows what is going to happen in the next week.