I’ve just read a 195 comment thread on Facebook on whether a D’deridex class warbird could beat a Galaxy class starship in a straight forward one ship on one ship encounter. I regret nothing. Excellent use of my evening.

Ah, I see the earnest quote reposters have arrived/America has woken up.

A fun question. In 5 years time, what looks better? The US’s enormous bet & capex on AI? Or China’s equally enormous bet and capex on renewables?

Christmas family trip north booked. I don’t really understand the economics of rail cards. Family & friends rail card: £35 for a year. Savings over the last 12 months: £396.

Nugget 2 — Productivity: After an upgrade in the last report, the Bank changed its mind and downgraded the path: growth in output per worker is ~0.2pp below the OBR on average and ~0.1pp below its Aug forecast. We'll be keeping an eye on how that compares to the OBR at budget.

Enjoyed editing this look by @duncanweldon.bsky.social at what history's tech backlashes tell us about what to expect with AI: www.transformernews.ai/p/history-su...

Really looking forward to making a start on this at the weekend.

Absolutely the best thing you will read today.

British press reaction to the end of the “war” also interesting. Initially: “we’ve won. We’ve easily won this!” Calm sober analysis (along the O’Rourke line) begins to filter through that, well, maybe not. Pro-Chamberlain press: “this only proves how magnanimous the PM has been here!”

Have your relatives died? Do you miss them? Does that make you sad? Have you considered paying a company to animate a photo of them to give it four or five seconds of movement? That’ll surely help.

I think I’ve been meaning to write this piece since about 2017 or 2018. Glad to have finally done so!

Quick scan of the curriculum review. This is interesting. My school offered French & German. My kids have only ever done Spanish.

Trade wars are never solely about economics, as the Anglo-Irish tariff war of the 1930s reminds us. Ireland’s David and the British Goliath | @duncanweldon.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/essays/irela...

What if there was a consensus on the tax reforms the UK needs? What if it was backed by policy experts from think tanks across the political spectrum, from the Adam Smith Institute to the Resolution Foundation? The consensus is real. The question is: will anyone act on it?

All three volumes of Braudel's The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II in hardback for £40 online second hand. An absolute win for me. But not for my poor postie.

Joined a Zoom call. Guess this a TV not a radio interview. Luckily, I have brushed my hair.

Fans of my dulcet tones can hear them around 8am on LBC talking about the economy ahead of the CHX’s speech.

V good. cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Went to Malta for the first time last week. Highly recommended as an October British weather escape.

I have fallen into a deep, deep agricultural history hole whilst researching something else. And this happens every time I am adjacent to something agricultural history related. I might just have to admit that agricultural history is an actual interest of mine.

amaaaaaazing.

I also think Monty understood that it was more important for the British Army not to lose battles than to win them (the only time he seems to have totally forgotten this was MARKET GARDEN).

Finally got around to reading the Policy Exchange how to cut public spending report. A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate. Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words. policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...

School drop off and then a Greggs bacon roll. Leaning into the end of half term.

The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s

Max Hastings: “admirably provocative … there is no silly sensationalism in this book, merely sound storytelling and measured judgments.” First review of #AdvanceBritannia, available Thu 6 November. www.thetimes.com/culture/book...

Terrorism! Torture! Oppression! Liberation! Defeat! Victory! This week we're watching the movie that has it all: The Battle of Algiers. Is it a training film for rebels or counter-insurgents? How does it manage to be, in the words of Roger Ebert, "both passionate and neutral"? champ.ly/wjbcgHT0

On defence spending chrisdillow.substack.com/p/some-costs... By @chrisdillow.bsky.social Chris isn't denying that it's necessary, but has some strong rebuttals for anyone thinking there aren't trade offs involved

The significance of a D66 win in 🇳🇱 (if it transpires) will need some explaining outside the country. The Netherlands, like Denmark, has two liberal parties: one rooted in the classical liberal tradition, the other in the radical liberal one. D66 is the latter, ie the left-of-centre liberal party.

New post out from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "Ukraine's theory of victory" If Ukraine can't win on the battlefield can they - and their allies - undermine Russia's economy enough to force Putin's hand? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/ukraines-t...

Always happy to engage politely and constructively. But a quick read of my mentions and some changes have been made. Will never understand the mentality that thinks aggressively swearing at someone you’ve never met is ok.

7 reviews in the thread now (FT, Foreign Affairs, Economist, Kirkus, Spears, Spectator, Irish Independent). Out now in the UK and available to order (Jan 6th release) in the US.

Lots of Labour despair on the timeline today. The next election is likely more than three years away. The route to winning it starts by acknowledging that some more short term pain is probably required to get into a position where victory is possible. This budget is going to be painful. But 1/3

Erm, ok. www.ft.com/content/967b...

Buxton appearing a lot in my timeline. Did a Buxton literary festival event this summer. Only time I’ve been. Lovely, lovely town. This concludes my Buxton anecdote.

Very aggressively set field.

The real escalation would be a new TV ad. Quoting the Declaration of Independence. “For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent”.

on.ft.com/3J4LwyD I’m in two minds on this. The downgrade isn’t surprising. What is more surprising- and politically painful - is that it has taken them this long to make it.

Looking in from the outside, government shutdowns - and the way people just accept that they sometimes happen - are one of the weirdest US things. This would just be regarded as an utter state and political failure in any European state.

The youngest has acquired a copy of the Smyths toy catalogue. Currently circling potential Xmas presents. Oh dear.

Yeah. Outrageous. MPs and their staff should sit on the floor or old boxes. Or just stand. What’s wrong with standing?

Great Grand Prix.

Good Bessent profile. on.ft.com/42U9gfA ‘Where the hell is the market risk?’ Scott Bessent takes on his critics

What a good idea on.ft.com/4oCEPTd ‘Do not trust your eyes’: AI generates surge in expense fraud

There is an official ITV YouTube channel. Didn’t know that. And…

I am used to Americans assuming I am American on social media. British people assuming I am American is exciting and new.

I know this is obvious. And I know we all know this. But if the President can raise taxes because an advert annoyed him, without even consulting Congress, then the US constitution is simply not functioning as intended.

Saw a TV ad. Googled it. Now excitedly reading reviews of heated drying airers. And accepting that I have become old. www.theguardian.com/thefilter/20...

Clock change has helped with catching more of the England ODI.