🤪

Gotta say, I find it really interesting that some people still use Twitter/X and believe that they're completely immune from the incentives that it constructs.

The AI build-out is truly staggering. Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.

The overwhelming number of US layoffs come from firms not included in the job cut announcement tally. We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare

I'd disagree with George here. They're very useful for creating trading opportunities for people who know the data are junk.

Challenger job cuts are not helpful macro data.

I am a think tank and the way to get the country out of its debt crisis is to subsidise Wolverhampton Wanderers FC to the tune of a few billion pounds. Am I doing this right?

The solution to a debt crisis? Leave the ECHR and deport 700,000 migrants, apparently.

This guy really making a string of brave predictions today.

It would also be unusual for the President to bypass the authority of Congress, so ....

Hot take: Donegal > Cornwall (quite comfortably)

10yr Gilt yield now close to year-to-date lows (it touched 4.38% earlier). Much more important than the 30yr in determining overall funding costs (outstanding stock has a weighted-average maturity of ~14 years).

It's kinda funny how often I see this being quoted as a substitute for the official (delayed) Q3 GDP data, missing the fact that it largely relies on the source GDP data that have also been delayed.

My whole book in a footnote right here

Bit of an odd article, this. The 'Sell America' trade was always a misleading narrative, but you can't adjudicate on this issue by comparing bond yields in local currency. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

I believe the driver is commenting on the state of financial markets.

Quite a revealing article, this. There’s clear recognition that exploiting chokepoints to gain leverage causes your trading partners to hedge the relationship. So why does this administration keep trying to do exactly that? on.ft.com/4qDnN9m

<sigh>

There are obvious measurement issues here. But putting that aside, is this a relevant metric?

Haha yes.

Headphones on if you work in the offices above Cannon St station.

Good article from Chris, here. It just reinforces the conclusion that tax increases are inevitable to fix the fiscal position and better to get them out of the way. But that in turn means the govt needs to think a lot harder about how it can achieve growth. There’s no easy lever to pull here.

It's not the despair. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can’t stand.

Just checked this and pretty it’s an actual true fact: the last Republican President to serve a term that didn’t coincide with a recession was James Garfield, from March-September 1881. Wild.

Pretty much right on cue. Another series that appears to have suffered from residual seasonality in recent years.

I'm here to present a gold BMW to help you through your day, @darioperkins.bsky.social

Big update to our US Tariffs Paper: 📦 Pass-through ≈20% (using applied tariff rates, accounting for exemptions) 💸 “Cheapflation”: cheaper goods within categories saw 2× higher inflation 📈 Cumulative CPI impact: +0.7 percentage points More details www.pricinglab.org/files/Track...

Raise taxes

Cheer up, you could be a Wolves fan 😞

Good article, this.

Hey Siri, what’s the definition of tempting fate?

This is fantastic and important in equal measure.

Nice salami you have there. Would be a shame if someone were to SLICE IT! on.ft.com/48KIjyG

First we had Liz Truss lasting 49 days. Then Sébastien Lecornu smashed her record with 26 days. But Sanae Takaichi might make those guys look like amateurs.

What was it Einstein said about the definition of madness?

The whole "Germany's economy is in awful shape" thing seems to have missed that domestic demand is growing pretty strongly, thanks very much.

Apparently, “Bitcoin is a massive force in humanitarian/environmental action.” It’s a new one on me.

So here’s a thing: in 2020, China included a goal to maintain the share of manufacturing in GDP in its 14th five-year plan. It’s failed to do that, but has created massive over-capacity in some industries as a result.

<Goose meme> Where's that coming from ...?

This is the kind of insight you need to be a hedge fund manager, kids.

To me, this totally exposes the bizarreness of the fiscal framework. We've had 15 years of productivity disappointing expectations. It's one reason why debt/GDP has risen (not nearly the main reason though). And yet it's only now the OBR is changing its assumption do we see a fiscal response.

It's amazing to me that the Treasury is talking about tax rises to compensate for productivity downgrades and all the while refusing to acknowledge the existence of these two charts.

Today I learned two things: 1. The numbers usually quoted for the value of central bank gold purchases are mostly estimated. 2. African bush elephants and blue whales are now acceptable standardized units of weight. www.ft.com/content/6144...

What five events defined your childhood? Fall of the Berlin Wall Italia 90 (marginally, over Mexico 86 and Euro 96) Election of New Labour 1st Gulf War Chernobyl