There are many issues with this speech. But perhaps the biggest is that if you think tariffs haven't added to inflation, and can still see that core PCE ex food, energy & housing has *risen* this year, that should tell you something about the balance of demand vs supply and the stance of policy.

Reform’s new position on indefinite leave to remain is even more extremist than Donald Trump’s crackdown on US immigration. If any of Reform’s political opponents fancied saying they publicly, that might be nice. Handily, it’s even true.

I read the new Lib Dem policy paper on climate change last week*, and it is genuinely excellent. The proposals are credible and ambitious, and clearly informed by good quality research. www.libdems.org.uk/conference/p...

Thing is, while Ed Davey has unusual ways of creating publicity, the Lib Dem’s policies typically have substance and are workable. Meanwhile, Reform is often treated as credible despite its policy agenda being two elephants short of a circus. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Former BLS Commissioner and current Friends of BLS co-chair ⬇️

Isn’t this called the dark web?

Agree with this in principle, but we’ve already seen two examples the Chancellor targeting certain groups for tax increases or benefit savings and neither have worked out well. Much better to phase out their future entitlement to benefits so there’s no cliff-edge effect.

top notch stuff (as always) from @katie0martin.ft.com here www.ft.com/content/ac9e...

This is fantastic. Give it a read if you haven’t already.

A question for monetary/stablecoin nerds: I keep seeing this point that stablecoins will act as a willing buyer of government debt, and that could help keep yields down. But what's the mechanism by which stablecoins raise overall demand for T-bills, rather than divert it from somewhere else?

<shocked face>

No idea why the thumbnail didn’t work on that QT but here it is

Against Debate, by @chrisdillow.bsky.social. I'm not going to say I fully agree because that would be contra to one of the points in the article. But it's apposite to the points made about 'doing politics the right way' over the last 10 days. chrisdillow.substack.com/p/against-de...

Cheat code: the Mag-7 just keep buying each other's products and each other's stock and everyone gets rich.

HY refi cycle can start in earnest (effective yield below par weighted coupon on the index for the first time since March 2022):

"...these aren’t...debates at all. They’re performances designed to generate...emotional reactions for viral distribution. Participants aren’t trying to...genuinely engage with opposing viewpoints. They’re trying to create moments that will get clipped, shared, and monetized across social media."

Remember, Artificial General Intelligence is going to happen as soon as they can get the wifi to work.

This. 1000 times this. It’s like we don’t count.

Lol

We are hiring at The Economist. This is not just any internship. You will be a paid staff member and writer for 6 months. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

“Could” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Post no one asked for on how to compare bond yields across currencies (more) properly. on.ft.com/48fJTIf

This is really good from @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/where-is-t...

The latest in a series of crazy charts. A group of six US companies are expected to increase capital expenditures by 16% over the coming year. All other listed non-financial companies are expected to raise capex by less than 1%. Those six companies already account for a 25% of total capex outlays

on.ft.com/3I6b7GR Stop talking about wealth taxes — make these reforms instead (this is by the excellent Dan Neidle - but I reckon there’s only a slim chance of sensible decisions like these)

So, erm, the other thing about the nuclear arms race was that the US ended up over-producing ballistic missiles because it believed Russia had developed more capability than it really had.

I had to reschedule some flights booked with British Airways earlier this year because one of my daughters has been ill. The good news was that BA has a medical policy that allows you to rebook your flights within a year at no extra cost if you can provide evidence of the medical issue. Great!

Construction spending forecast for Q1 2026 is mostly from jobs that started in late24-early25, currently indicating that Q1'26 will be declining. Expect jobs to also be declining.

The new format for the Champions League is terrible. And the old one wasn’t great either. It should revert to the old two leg knockout cup but won’t because of the need to maximise revenue.

We’re doing this charade again?

Looks like there was an extension of the deadline for disaster unemployment assistance in Texas, but folks rushing to file ahead of the original Sept 4 deadline could have driven part of the pop in TX initial UI claims gov.texas.gov/news/post/go...

Hmmm. Big jump, but looks like something funky going on with the Texan numbers.

I wanted a Radiohead unlock code and all I got was this lousy email about Pizza Express’s Pizzanaise

I think I just found the Xiest post that ever X'd.

Oh, this is going to be amusing (sorry, Forest fans). www.nytimes.com/athletic/642...

UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1% VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500 Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year

A lot has been made of the incredible rebound in US employment since the pandemic, but not all aspects of the labour market compare favourably with other countries.

The more I reflect on re-watching The Wire, the more I think that Season 5 had some of the most shrewd observations on modern life.

Well I suppose what (US) anti-trust giveth (EU) anti-trust taketh away

BLS charts: 1/ Another bad jobs report. Weak job gains, and most concerningly the unemployment rate inches up further (now just a hair above 4.3%).

Gotta give it to them - they know their customer!

👀 - is this good news for Spurs fans @pauljdavies.bsky.social ?

Ooofff. Elizabeth Warren tearing strips off Stephen Miran.

"Guys, call off the IMF. Yeah, we don't need them anymore."

She really has no idea how uneasy and frightening this is for people from Minority communities. When we were kids, we got spat at and verbally abused by people who had flags in their gardens.

🙌🙌🙌

I'm not sure social media firms want to go around suggesting that all the billions of dollars businesses have spent advertising on their platforms has had zero effect.

Apparently it's possible for the country to *think itself into a bigger housing stock*

Three things to note on Gilts: i. The 30yr yield is historically quite elevated at 5.6%, the 10yr at 4.7-4.8% is a bit more normal - levels that were typical in the 2000s. What's (possibly) different is it was also normal for the economy to grow at 2.5% real, 5% nominal back then.