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I....cant... anymore.....😭 take the change in job openings by industry. Plot it against the change in employment by industry. The sectors with the biggest REDUCTIONS in job openings also saw the largest INCREASES in employment. US, France, UK all the same story ChatGPT my ass

Twitter's "most important chart in the world"... about America's "K-shaped" economy... also works for FRANCE. So maybe its not about ChatGPT?!

Rachel Reeves with an emergency speech to reset the narrative... or "Tuesday" as it is otherwise known

After the Miran diss track, my latest: a rap about the AI bubble. Its f***ing amazing www.producer.ai/song/7b40e9a...

This is amazing 🤣

This is a work of staggering genius:

I asked AI to write a 90s-style diss track from Jay Powell to the new FOMC member - with very little prompt- and the results were, er, SPECTACULAR Now I just need to make a video. And clone Powell's voice 🤣 www.producer.ai/song/b8f520e...

Dario/Freya: No cut in December; worldwide reflation in '26; Fed capture may prevent hikes; long end will tighten financial conditions. @darioperkins.bsky.social (I believe fed/treasury accord fades away in '26, some version of YCC rolls out.) open.spotify.com/episode/6rPO...

PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

Fun pod from @darioperkins.bsky.social and Freya - The Fed kills cycles and they will murder this one too; Fed will not protect real rates; efficiency gains are not from ai; K-shaped economy/wealth effect is not real.

@robarmstrong.bsky.social and @darioperkins.bsky.social doing a valuable public service in this morning’s Unhedged newsletter: on.ft.com/4nOovPA

Near the end of this @darioperkins.bsky.social frames out the pressures on the Fed in the late ‘60s that look similar to present day. I think you can also hear some recognition of this in Fed speeches this week. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

Investors keep asking why the US economy is "behaving so bizarrely". Imagine a teacher turns up to school in a clown outfit, acts erratically all day, and keeps dishing out arbitrary rewards and expulsions. Would you ask why the kids are so distracted?

As the usual observation goes, dig only a little bit under every piece of BS in US society and you have better than even odds you'll find Regan... by @darioperkins.bsky.social at hub.tslombard.com/chart-story/... via @adamtooze.bsky.social

The UK is in a hole and this govt thinks it can fix it with a shovel

Wtf am I watching

FOMC members haven't agreed on much in recent months, but they all agree that Miran is wrong about where interest rates should be. He managed to unite them 🤣

People seem confused by Jay Powell, but his message was a complicated one. Both demand and supply are deteriorating, which isnt *that* disinflationary, but there is a chance demand deteriorates FASTER than supply - esp. if the labour market cracks. That's what they are watching for

Arsonists blaming the fire brigade for turning up late

The irony of *that* FOMC dot is that it will only be correct if the administration's policies have tanked the economy

wishful thinking

1967....

so here is the debate, is it: - 1995. Fed cuts. soft landing & inflation is fine - 1967. Fed cuts. Inflation reaccelerates.. fine for a while but then the economy overheats & we get a recession - 2001. Fed cuts, but it is already too late & recession gains traction 🧵

cpi is hot the jobs market is about to stall whoever invented these tariffs is a bit of a fool

For those who are interested, here's my preview of the preliminary benchmark estimate we get from the BLS on Tuesday morning. substack.com/home/post/p-...

We're only just getting started in the UK......

Spend three months trying to capture the Fed and then hand the top job to Waller. Sorry, i can't see it... Let's not forget Trump regretted hiring Powell within WEEKS of giving him the position.

Imagine if the US had elected, say, a lettuce (😉)... i think you could make a counterfactual where the economy would be in a better position today. None of the uncertainty, and rates would be 100-150bps lower

If the US is sliding into recession, it will be one of the dumbest recessions in history

The executive threatening the Fed that it can only remain independent if it makes the choices it wants, is equivalent to eliminating Fed independence.

We are just the only country stupid enough to discuss "black holes" every time yields rise 10bps

Jobs market looks "stally" but In the end, this game is down to judgement. You have to figure out whether there is something fundamentally wrong with the economy, or whether the stupidity of Liberation Day was akin to a freak weather event/short-term shock to sentiment. I lean towards the latter

Perkins vs Beamish v good this week. @darioperkins.bsky.social overcast.fm/+ABKrk9orl0g

Every. Damn. Time.

Feel like "letters" from large groups of economists never ends well 🤣

The irony is that because the UK attempted austerity when the macro fundamentals didn't warrant it, it is politically impossible to do it today - when from a macro perspective, you could probably get away with. BoE has plenty of scope to cut rates, unlike in 2011-2018 #gilts

Its hard to have a lot of conviction, but I think CPi will come in hot and payrolls will rebound before September FOMC. Need BOTH of those things to prevent a cut though

honestly, nobody should be panicking about these data. The chaos of Liberation Day killed hiring. What did you think would happen? Maybe the effect is already wearing off with TACO, who knows... But the September cut clearly isnt just about the next CPI report anymore

the new payroll profile makes more sense tbh. An economy frozen by uncertainty. But not yet recessionary

Two dissents on the FOMC. I guess we can call that "vice signalling"...

PODCAST TIME AGAIN. Let me spell this one out, because there is still some confusion out there: IF TRUMP FIRES POWELL... THAT AINT BULLISH Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/1pbj...

think we can call than an "escalation"

And with this I managed the feat of three bulletins in three consecutive days. A hat trick. So the law of the land dictates I should take the match ball with me.

Trump has yet to name his pick to replace Powell, but whomever he chooses will have to overcome doubts that they are setting interest rates free of influence from the White House or risk eroding the institution’s credibility www.nytimes.com/2025/07/10/b... @nytimes.com @darioperkins.bsky.social

If you just look at financial assets, you'd say rates are too low. If you just look at housing and durables, you'd say rates are too high. Looking across the whole US economy I'd say rates are MAYBE a little on the high side, but not egregiously so.

In the present climate, nowhere is an outcome I would take.

US policy reflexivity. Stock market goes up, they start doing dumb stuff again... market can ignore that but eventually it has to affect the economy. This is a path to nowhere

"Many" FOMC participants think the tariff effect on the CPI has merely been delayed