🔥Job gains surge 172k, aided by a sharp 52K increase in government hires, largely at the local level. Federal employment added 1K jobs, and is down ~ 350K since Oct 2024. A surge in layoffs, quits & retirements have left staffing shortages across fed agencies - it’s at the lowest level since 1966.

Fed’s inflation target came in hot & sticky in April, fueling Fed’s pivot to a rate hike instead of a cut. High inflation & loss of transfers for Medicaid and SNAP (food stamps) sapped income growth & drained saving to 2008 lows. Here’s my take on the data. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

This analysis looks at mobility and highlights a key issue. You can improve income mobility - not easy but possible - but wealth mobility is stickier. It is harder to accumulate wealth even if you manage to break out of the income strata in which you were born.

The labor market has an undercurrent…to some it feels like a rip tide. Not a lot of buffer if low hire, low fire economy loses the low fire side of the labor market.

The job finding rate of people not in the labor force (denom: NILF, "want a job now") has weakened in the past 4-6 mo, just like the job finding rate for unemployed people - even as the job market has shown signs of stabilization or even slight warming. Happened after '09 too.

Fed in hot seat The war in Iran is adding fuel to an already well-kindled fire. Inflation has persisted for five years, with its effects compounding over time. Those shifts create a hard backdrop for new supply shocks tied to tariff & energy. We are developing a muscle memory of price hikes.

🔥 inflation hit, more in the pipeline with PPI soaring as well. Next up import prices. We have had 5 years of inflation compounding, driving a wedge between affluent consumers & rest of economy. Stock market gains narrowing, while those who have a job are clinging to it. Those without…

Here are my thoughts from my international meetings. Intense. Chatham House Rules but have distilled into top 10. This month, Bowie and Queen’s song “Under Pressure” fit the bill. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

My full take on the mixed signals in the labor market report. Suffice it to say that workers have reason to feel anxious, despite upside surprise in payroll employment. The news didn’t extend to the household survey, which shed jobs AGAIN & showed stress under the hood.

Coming up on CNN International to talk the conflict in the Middle East and ripple effects for the US and global economy.

Been abroad in meetings. There was an undercurrent to them this year. (More of a riptide) Collecting my thoughts on what I can share. Still processing & recovering from the exhaustion of the changes we are enduring.

Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.25% to 3.5% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.”

Farm bankruptcies soared. Tariffs, retaliation, drought conditions emerging and now oil - fertilizers, chemicals & diesel - all hitting ag sector. Midwest hit hardest. Brace for more food price hikes. Critical issue for households & Federal Reserve as food is what is known as a salient good.

We have a lot of history on tariffs and the unintended or ill-fated consequences that they can trigger. Worth a look. Below

Uncertainty clouds Fed calculus The decision to drop the DOJ investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell clears the way for nominee Kevin Warsh to be confirmed. He should be sworn in by the time that Powell’s term as chairman lapses in mid-May.

Hard world we live in.

The Federal Reserve meets next week. Expect an uncomfortable hold with debate within the Fed intensifying about whether its next move is up or down on rates. Its inflation-fighting credibility is eroding. My take for April FOMC kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Supply chains are fast approaching COVID level disruptions in some countries. There is no Las Vegas in global economy; what happens abroad doesn’t stay there. The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/w...

Future & spot prices for oil are diverging. What matters most for buyers - the actual prices or spot price of oil. That is their cost. They can’t decouple but the effects of higher oil prices linger, before we get to the disruptions to global supply chains. This is not a one & done event.

Coming up on CNBC exchange with Kelly Evans & @steveliesman.bsky.social to talk CPI and the road forward for the Federal Reserve.

🔥CPI surges on higher energy costs, with the largest monthly increase since the nearing the peak of the pandemic in June 2022. Gains were driven by a surge in energy cost. Fuel oil jumped 30.7% during the month, its faster pace since Feb 2000.

🔥The PCE index, which the Federal Reserve targets, rose 0.4% in Feb, up a tick from the 0.3% pace in Jan. That translates to 2.8% y/y, which is same as Feb. Measured of momentum accelerated. The 3 & 6-month annualized pace moved up, to 4.1% & 3.4 from 3.5% & 3.2% in Jan.

open.substack.com/pub/kathleen... Great conversation between Kathleen Hayes and @dianeswonk.bsky.social on inflation, jobs report, dual mandate and current state of the economy. #Economy

This month, I was inspired by Jackson Browne’s Running on Empty. Lots of scenarios for the economy & war in Iran. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Listen to Marketplace radio with Sabri Ben-Achor to hear KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk on the economic outlook.

The threshold for a rate cut rose in March. The Fed could finally bring the debate about risks that the next rate move could be up or down likely to make it out of discussion in the statement in March.

Wow. Pure moment of joy watching Artemis ll launch successfully with my family. To journey where no humans have gone before…hope springs eternal. That which binds us is greater than that which divides us. Break bread, not ties. Be kind; pay it forward. New meaning to the Dark Side of the Moon.

Fed sounding way too dovish…this is more than an oil shock…. Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/p...

Testing the voracity of the K shaped economy. Note. Wealth effects tend to be asymmetric- the hurt mort when wealth hit than help when wealth expands, although there is the largest cushion for affluent household on record - both absolute & after adjusting for inflation.

“People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.

People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.

Stagflation risks are a reality that will stress the Fed. Markets see the Fed's next move as a potential hike as oil prices, inflation fears rise www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/m...

Amazing and appreciate your work.

I'm guessing this is what you had in mind. bsky.app/profile/paul...

Hybrid and WFH adds to productivity & reproductivity, but many reasons that kids should be in school five days a week. Crime is highlighted in this paper. Same time Gen Z spending more time alone/lonely and online. Losing import social skills. The insular lives of young people really matter.

🔥Import & export prices outside of oil were hot in February. Note import prices DO NOT include tariffs. Big increases in capital equipment, with computers & semiconductors rising rapidly with chip costs accelerating. Those affect a lot of other goods.

Sorry, meant to tag @nickbloom.bsky.social and Steve Davis.

thank you and your amazing authors for the rich body of work from home research. Here is a new paper I have been following the emergence of since I saw Nick in a video talking with policy makers in the UK.

My take on the FOMC meeting. What seemed a dovish pause was under the hood more hawkish. What we saw was a rounding of the wagons for Powell at difficult juncture for Fed independence. More telling were the risk that the participants at the meeting cited…

Coming up on ABC News This Week with Martha Raddatz to discuss the Strait of Hormuz and how ripples through economy.

I have been an economists for a very long time. I have always been a little surprised by how some people will talk about recession as a necessary reset or a “cleans.” There is this “let them eat cake” kind of mentality that emerges that somehow a recession is like a fast for a day and healthy.

An obscure methodological tweak -- a change in the source of data on the price of legal services -- resulted in meaningfully lower monthly PCE inflation in January. That's prompting questions about why the change was made and why it wasn't disclosed publicly. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b... #EconSky

Data deluge - just catching up with posting…here is PCE index, spending, income, GDP & consumer sentiment. Fed needs to start worrying about their inflation-fighting credibility. We are 5 years in on inflation - underlying inflation accelerated ahead of war. kpmg.voicestorm.com/post/e0d7b3f...

Join us for a look at the war and its fallout for the global economy socialshare.us.kworld.kpmg.com

My full write up on CPI and reasons to worry about a more persistent bout of inflation - the most regressive of taxes. Best way to deal with inequality is to get rid of inflation. #FOMC has blunt tools but obtain & sustainable full employment w/o derailing inflation. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

A portion of my interview with @bloombergtv.bsky.social today www.linkedin.com/posts/bloomb...

Write up on CPI out soon. Here are some high level takeaways. CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector prices…

My take on possible oil scenarios & conflict in Middle East. Inspired by Jurassic Park and Jeff Goldblum’s explanation of chaos theory. This one hit close to home as I know too well tail risks. My mom cried - should have warned her first. Lots of humility amidst uncertainty.

When the labor market is dependent on a one-legged stool, it falters when a shock occurs. That is what we saw in the February employment report. A major strike in the healthcare sector knocked the one leg the labor market was standing on out from under it. The red ink was broad based.

My colleague posted the import & export prices. What is important to note is that core goods export prices soared. That is despite dollar depreciation. Why are export prices rising and why is it important to watch? They are rising because tariff on imported inputs went up.