Future & spot prices for oil are diverging. What matters most for buyers - the actual prices or spot price of oil. That is their cost. They can’t decouple but the effects of higher oil prices linger, before we get to the disruptions to global supply chains. This is not a one & done event.

Coming up on CNBC exchange with Kelly Evans & @steveliesman.bsky.social to talk CPI and the road forward for the Federal Reserve.

🔥CPI surges on higher energy costs, with the largest monthly increase since the nearing the peak of the pandemic in June 2022. Gains were driven by a surge in energy cost. Fuel oil jumped 30.7% during the month, its faster pace since Feb 2000.

🔥The PCE index, which the Federal Reserve targets, rose 0.4% in Feb, up a tick from the 0.3% pace in Jan. That translates to 2.8% y/y, which is same as Feb. Measured of momentum accelerated. The 3 & 6-month annualized pace moved up, to 4.1% & 3.4 from 3.5% & 3.2% in Jan.

open.substack.com/pub/kathleen... Great conversation between Kathleen Hayes and @dianeswonk.bsky.social on inflation, jobs report, dual mandate and current state of the economy. #Economy

This month, I was inspired by Jackson Browne’s Running on Empty. Lots of scenarios for the economy & war in Iran. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Listen to Marketplace radio with Sabri Ben-Achor to hear KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk on the economic outlook.

The threshold for a rate cut rose in March. The Fed could finally bring the debate about risks that the next rate move could be up or down likely to make it out of discussion in the statement in March.

Wow. Pure moment of joy watching Artemis ll launch successfully with my family. To journey where no humans have gone before…hope springs eternal. That which binds us is greater than that which divides us. Break bread, not ties. Be kind; pay it forward. New meaning to the Dark Side of the Moon.

Fed sounding way too dovish…this is more than an oil shock…. Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/p...

Testing the voracity of the K shaped economy. Note. Wealth effects tend to be asymmetric- the hurt mort when wealth hit than help when wealth expands, although there is the largest cushion for affluent household on record - both absolute & after adjusting for inflation.

“People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.

People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.

Stagflation risks are a reality that will stress the Fed. Markets see the Fed's next move as a potential hike as oil prices, inflation fears rise www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/m...

Amazing and appreciate your work.

I'm guessing this is what you had in mind. bsky.app/profile/paul...

Hybrid and WFH adds to productivity & reproductivity, but many reasons that kids should be in school five days a week. Crime is highlighted in this paper. Same time Gen Z spending more time alone/lonely and online. Losing import social skills. The insular lives of young people really matter.

🔥Import & export prices outside of oil were hot in February. Note import prices DO NOT include tariffs. Big increases in capital equipment, with computers & semiconductors rising rapidly with chip costs accelerating. Those affect a lot of other goods.

Sorry, meant to tag @nickbloom.bsky.social and Steve Davis.

thank you and your amazing authors for the rich body of work from home research. Here is a new paper I have been following the emergence of since I saw Nick in a video talking with policy makers in the UK.

My take on the FOMC meeting. What seemed a dovish pause was under the hood more hawkish. What we saw was a rounding of the wagons for Powell at difficult juncture for Fed independence. More telling were the risk that the participants at the meeting cited…

Coming up on ABC News This Week with Martha Raddatz to discuss the Strait of Hormuz and how ripples through economy.

I have been an economists for a very long time. I have always been a little surprised by how some people will talk about recession as a necessary reset or a “cleans.” There is this “let them eat cake” kind of mentality that emerges that somehow a recession is like a fast for a day and healthy.

An obscure methodological tweak -- a change in the source of data on the price of legal services -- resulted in meaningfully lower monthly PCE inflation in January. That's prompting questions about why the change was made and why it wasn't disclosed publicly. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b... #EconSky

Data deluge - just catching up with posting…here is PCE index, spending, income, GDP & consumer sentiment. Fed needs to start worrying about their inflation-fighting credibility. We are 5 years in on inflation - underlying inflation accelerated ahead of war. kpmg.voicestorm.com/post/e0d7b3f...

Join us for a look at the war and its fallout for the global economy socialshare.us.kworld.kpmg.com

My full write up on CPI and reasons to worry about a more persistent bout of inflation - the most regressive of taxes. Best way to deal with inequality is to get rid of inflation. #FOMC has blunt tools but obtain & sustainable full employment w/o derailing inflation. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

A portion of my interview with @bloombergtv.bsky.social today www.linkedin.com/posts/bloomb...

Write up on CPI out soon. Here are some high level takeaways. CPI headline figures of 2.4% are artificially suppressed by the lapse in data collection during the six week government shutdown. Under the hood, there is a disturbing acceleration in core service sector prices…

My take on possible oil scenarios & conflict in Middle East. Inspired by Jurassic Park and Jeff Goldblum’s explanation of chaos theory. This one hit close to home as I know too well tail risks. My mom cried - should have warned her first. Lots of humility amidst uncertainty.

When the labor market is dependent on a one-legged stool, it falters when a shock occurs. That is what we saw in the February employment report. A major strike in the healthcare sector knocked the one leg the labor market was standing on out from under it. The red ink was broad based.

My colleague posted the import & export prices. What is important to note is that core goods export prices soared. That is despite dollar depreciation. Why are export prices rising and why is it important to watch? They are rising because tariff on imported inputs went up.

Private debt markets have been struggling for some time. These are nonbank lenders, largely in the private equity space, although they do rely upon bank credit. This is one of many fragilities in the financial market and the economy more broadly. The reasons span host of issues & is worrisome.

Red hot wholesale price index in January. My colleague Meagan Martin-Schoenberger posted it to her linked in page. Hottest core goods (ex energy & food) since early 2022 when inflation soared. Profit margins, with exception of vehicles, which have absorbed tariffs via margin losses & layoffs…

I moderated the political panel at #NABE2026 with the venerable Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political report and Dan Clifton of Strategas Securities. Dan said Charlie was his mentor. that. Some high-level takeaways from their remarks.

#NABE2026 @chicagofed.bsky.social Pres @goolsbee.bsky.social More worried about the risks to inflation, especially the persistence of core service sector inflation, which shouldn’t be affected by tariffs. This is after stripping out shelter costs. It remains too hot.

#NABE2026 provides scholarships for young economists & mentoring programs. ECB President Lagarde recounted her own scholarship that brought her to DC at 17. It taught her that “cultures speak to each other.”

#NABE2026 @ecb.europa.eu Pres Lagarde receives Paul Volcker Award for service. When asked what the greatest challenge for the next Federal Reserve Chair, she replied “To do his job.”

#NABE2026 Dan Yergin Vice Chairman of S&P500 expert on energy market. N Dakota produces more oil than Venezuela. We have to question reserves in VZ - over half requires $70-$80 per barrel to produce. Too expensive.

Fed Gov Chris Waller argues that needs to be accountable on inflation. Beauty of a target and the PCE index is that it holds the Fed accountable. Supports data dependence as need it much like using GPS to get to a restaurant.

Potential pivot by Fed Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan.

Care economy in crisis. My colleague Matt Nestler moderates panel of the extraordinary stress on our entire economy due to care needs of elderly. Stunning shares of the population providing unpaid care - women dominate but men play a larger role and often ignored - 40% unpaid elder care by men.

Within less than 24 hours, the Section 122 tariffs are used to restore most of the tariffs that were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. Yesterday was 10% with carve outs and had lowered a bit the effective tariff rates. Now, looks like up to the limit of 15% across the board, assuming carve outs.

My write up on GDP. Fire & ice kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

The Supreme Court Ruling against legality of over half of tariffs levied last year likely invalidates any “deals” cut by other counties to lower the tariffs.

My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to pull at any time to reinstate those tariffs.

Today’s burst of economic data showed an economy still powered by the boom in data centers with some broader increases in vehicle orders (Dec) and production (Jan). Housing starts popped in December and were revised higher for November.

The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again. Worrisome - it takes time for price hikes due to tariffs to show up in full…. www.wsj.com/business/pri...

Sharing this here. I posted it elsewhere and it applies to everywhere I post these days. Thank you for those that made this post possible.

Trust is like fractures under a frozen lake…the ground looks solid even as the weight of each step makes the fault lines larger from beneath…