#NABE2026 provides scholarships for young economists & mentoring programs. ECB President Lagarde recounted her own scholarship that brought her to DC at 17. It taught her that “cultures speak to each other.”

#NABE2026 @ecb.europa.eu Pres Lagarde receives Paul Volcker Award for service. When asked what the greatest challenge for the next Federal Reserve Chair, she replied “To do his job.”

#NABE2026 Dan Yergin Vice Chairman of S&P500 expert on energy market. N Dakota produces more oil than Venezuela. We have to question reserves in VZ - over half requires $70-$80 per barrel to produce. Too expensive.

Fed Gov Chris Waller argues that needs to be accountable on inflation. Beauty of a target and the PCE index is that it holds the Fed accountable. Supports data dependence as need it much like using GPS to get to a restaurant.

Potential pivot by Fed Gov Chris Walller - IF the next retail sales & labor data continue to show signs of further improvement, like we saw in Jan, then would support a pause in rate cuts after dissenting in Jan.

Care economy in crisis. My colleague Matt Nestler moderates panel of the extraordinary stress on our entire economy due to care needs of elderly. Stunning shares of the population providing unpaid care - women dominate but men play a larger role and often ignored - 40% unpaid elder care by men.

Within less than 24 hours, the Section 122 tariffs are used to restore most of the tariffs that were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. Yesterday was 10% with carve outs and had lowered a bit the effective tariff rates. Now, looks like up to the limit of 15% across the board, assuming carve outs.

My write up on GDP. Fire & ice kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

The Supreme Court Ruling against legality of over half of tariffs levied last year likely invalidates any “deals” cut by other counties to lower the tariffs.

My write up coming soon of GDP, inflation, employment and the Supreme court ruling IEEPA tariffs illegal. Curb your enthusiasm. Refunds are not guaranteed & the logistics to quote the Court are a “mess.” Moreover, the admiration has other levers to pull at any time to reinstate those tariffs.

Today’s burst of economic data showed an economy still powered by the boom in data centers with some broader increases in vehicle orders (Dec) and production (Jan). Housing starts popped in December and were revised higher for November.

The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again. Worrisome - it takes time for price hikes due to tariffs to show up in full…. www.wsj.com/business/pri...

Sharing this here. I posted it elsewhere and it applies to everywhere I post these days. Thank you for those that made this post possible.

Trust is like fractures under a frozen lake…the ground looks solid even as the weight of each step makes the fault lines larger from beneath…

The Atlanta Fed's sticky-price consumer price index (CPI)—a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly—rose 4.4% (on an annualized basis) in January, following a 3.4% increase in December. On a year-over-year basis, the series is up 3.0%.: atlfed.org/3OofhMU.

Watch Bloomberg TV at 3pm Eastern to hear KPMG US chief economist Diane Swonk parse the new inflation data with hosts Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld.

The CPI data came in cooler than expected, which is always welcome. The headline is obscuring some of the underlying inflation due to the loss in data associated with the government shutdown. The overall index posted its coolest reading since May 2025, with a 2.4% increase.

Deficits larger at the same time more of our Treasury debt being bough by highly leveraged hedge funds instead of institutional buyer - central banks & pensions. Hedge funds are more price sensitive and apt to bolt with a shock. More susceptible to spike in yields, all else equal. ⬇️

My take on a healing in the labor market. Catch up to government shutdown helped alleviate ranks of those on temporary layoff & forced to accept part over full-time work. Read my take. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Consumers took on additional debt in order to spend during the holiday season. Look at this analysis from KPMG senior economist Matt Nestler to see what that could mean down the road. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Interesting paper gaming out AI impacts. “Ultimately…the effect of A.I. will be much larger than the internet, perhaps by more than 10x the internet, albeit over a half century or more. It would be prudent to spend the intervening time making preparations for the…

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a speech on the economy highlighting the challenge she felt the economy faced. Most notably, improvements in inflation have stalled. That acts as a regressive tax on the economy. It hits those who can afford it least and opens the door to a prolonged..

ISM services index was unchanged in Jan from Dec but devil in the details. Employment remained in expansion territory but just barely, while prices move up. Data center construction is stressing supply chains & adding to cost pressures. Tariffs another issue. www.prnewswire.com/news-release...

ADP employment report shows we have yet to break free from the low hire, low fire environment of 2025. Private payrolls rose only 22,000 in January after a downward revision to December. Gains were concentrated in small and midsized firms. Large firms shed jobs.

Navigating a global trust deficit Trust is quite literally the oil of the market machine. High levels of trust act as a lubricant, enabling even the simplest tractions to move forward with little costs. Low levels toss sand into the gears of the market machine.

Producer price index came in hottest three month and six month pace since 2022 - not a good year for inflation. The components that feed into the PCE index of inflation, which the Federal Reserve target, were not as bad but underscores why Powell was careful in declaring victory on inflation.

Gold wreaks havoc on trade deficit. Gold for investment purposes is asset and not considered in the GDP data, which tracks production of goods and services. The AI boom, which have tariffs waivers to compete in what is rapidly become an arms race in AI.

My take on the Fed and where we are. Long pause, no victory laps yet on inflation. Powell doesn’t expect clarity on whether inflation coming down until at least mid-year. New Fed Chair may want to hold off on rate cut in June to reassure makers that won’t overstimulate.

Coming up on @bloombergtv.bsky.social to discuss Federal Reserve decision at 2 est.

Emerging markets were among the first central banks to hike and deal with the post pandemic inflation. Why?

Read this analysis by KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk to get ready for the first Fed meeting of the year next week. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

My full write up of the personal consumption and income report on October and November. My deepest apologies for earlier typos. My dyslexia is worse when sleep is low. Not an excuse, just the cross I bear. I am so sorry if that had offended people. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

“ “Affluent” households “continue to power the economy forward,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG. “The concentration of gains in the hands of a few households masked the underlying pain many are expressing in consumer attitude surveys.” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/b...

PCE, spending and income out. Resilience ad a price. Consumer spending saps savings, inflation buoyant on Federal Reserve’s favored measure in services as well as goods. Saving rate lowest since blistering inflation of late 2022. Incomes flat, after slight contraction in third quarter. Hard. 💔

New study affirms what all other studies show. Importers and consumers, not foreign exporters bore the brunt of tariffs. Spike in uncertainty in April 2025 during the tariff tantrum showed up as paralysis in hiring much of the year since then - a little more than 84% of all jobs for 2025

Data disruptions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is down ~ 30% on staffing incl leadership roles. That has left them scrambled post shutdown to try to do more w/less, inc key regional survey offices closed. That has meant that tough decisions on filling gaps in the data had to be made.

Notable to remember, if the inflation data is being understated due to problems following government shutdown, the real (inflation-adjusted growth) could be overstated in 4Q.

My take on inflation data, which are now understating y/y gains. Fed’s doubles down on resolve to pause, showing independence & waiting for data dust to settle. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

For perspective on the economy in 2026, look at this publication using Janus, the Roman god with two faces, as a device to look ahead and backwards. @kpmgus.bsky.social @dianeswonk.bsky.social crunches the numbers and sketches in what to watch. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

This month I turned to the Roman god Janus, for whom the month of January is named. He had two faces: one looking to the past while the other looked toward the future. The imagery of past & future linked spoke to me, as did my son. ⬇️ x.com/knyeecon/sta...

Coming up to talk job and why workers are so distraught on CNBC with Kelly Evans at 1:15 EST.

Coming up on CNBC to talk jobs and a miserable year for workers at 1:15 est.

My take on the miserable year for jobs Weakest employment gains since 2020, 2nd weakest since global financial crisis 2009. Lowest hiring rate in late Nov since 2011. Over 80% of all gains for year were in first four months. Stalled after tariff tantrum in April. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

😱 Starting in 2030, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for all population growth. CBO a year ago predicted we would hit a wall on Social Security Trust fund in fiscal 2034. Then in Sept moved to 2031, now…2030? Wow. www.cbo.gov/publication/...

Jobless growth continues ADP saw job gains in December but still subdued. Late timing of Thanksgiving compressed holiday hires into December. Those gains and catch up following the government shutdown buoyed the gains.

Real GDP growth came in at a 4.3% pace in the third quarter, topping the 3.8% rebound in growth in the second quarter. The economy contracted in the first quarter. That marked the strongest gains since the back half of 2023, without a commensurate rise in employment.

Caution on CPI report Pass the salt Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell warned about taking the data on employment and inflation released this week with a grain of salt due to data collection problems following the government shutdown at his press conference following the Fed meeting on Dec 10.

Whacky inflation data. The assumptions on shelter costs in October meant that we essentially zeroed out inflation in one of the largest single sectors. That effect will linger in the CPI data, even if it comes in higher in segment.

Coming up on @cnbc.com to talk jobs, Fed, retail. We still have an economy that adds up on paper to look better than it feels to most Americans. Inflation data out Thursday.

Emp data went into the red for Oct & Nov on net. Losses were dominated by earlier federal worker buyouts; 151K federal workers fell off the payrolls on October 1. This is separate from the government shutdown, which added to temp layoffs in Nov. The overall unempl rate hit 4.6%. WW