Many people miss the hits to refined petroleum products due to Russia/Ukraine war. @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social watching closely. Thank you.

watch out: "Ukrainian forces struck the oil refinery in Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow, on Thursday, as drone attacks deepen fuel shortages across Russia." this is a pretty large refinery hit- 300,000bpd- further a reason why oil and refined product prices have disconnected

how much spot/wholesale gasoline prices are up since Monday- bottom line retail prices have a lot of catching up to do: Gulf Coast +30c/gal New York Harbor+39c/gal Plains/Rockies +30c/gal Great Lakes +29c/gal Pac NW +42c/gal NorCal +48c/gal SoCal +46c/gal

Worrisome.

“.. Diesel crack spreads are now higher than the price of crude itself. - WTI: $80 -Diesel crack spread (refining margin): $86 “.. Since the start of the war, diesel crack spreads have surged > 4x ..” - Ekwuwme

🔥The calculation that is coalescing hawks at the Fed and set the stage for dissents with a further pause in July are the inputs to the PCE index for June. Keep in mind that the Fed targets this at 2%. Those inputs leave us with a much hotter inflation scenario than was suggested by the CPI data.

Important post by Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed. The core ranks of hawks within the Fed leadership is growing and hardening their position on rate hikes. The persistence of inflation outside of the oil shock is the reason. Those who worry the Fed went too far in cuts in late 2025 is rising.

🥶 one win at a time. Today’s CPI report revealed a welcome cooling trend that went well beyond the price of oil and showed the cool down was more broad based. It showed up in insurance costs, especially for vehicles which held the line on prices. Shelter costs got a break as well.

Yep & USMCA now under annual review and tariffs designed to recoup revenues lost to Supreme Court Ruling hit again in August, reinforcing upward impulse on the tariffs already enacted but not passed along. The sequencing of tariffs mimics inflation and further unmoors inflation expectations.

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3

CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/

Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity

Took my inspiration for my annual structural change watchlist from Ancient Greek mythology & the story of Sisyphus who was condemned to roll a boulder uphill for eternity. We are in a world where each inch of growth is harder to attain, buffers should the economy stumbled are thin & elevated…

Payrolls slow, unemployment lower for wrong reasons Non-farm payrolls rose by 57K in June, their weakest gain since February. Data for the last two months was revised down. Public sector payrolls expanded modestly, but the largest gain was in May.

This Thursday, at the CBOE in Chicago, CNBC's The Exchange will be broadcasting live. @KPMG_US chief economist @dianeswonk.bsky.social will be joining @kellycnbc22.bsky.social and Brian Sullivan to share her analysis of PCE and the economic outlook.

My take on consumer spending & inflation. Brace for a hot & sticky summer, even as prices at the gas pump cool. I explain the lags in that as well. The economy is accelerating. Those gains mask underlying burn most are feeling. Fed poised to hike rates. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Life is nonlinear and at times messy. Failure doesn’t define you; coping with and learning from them does. Here is a podcast that I did with CEO of the Chicago Network, Maria Doughty. www.buzzsprout.com/1984234/epis...

Hawks flock at Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scored a win with a shorter statement, which ended with the Fed’s commitment to restore price stability. He said only one person discussed a cut and even though he did not want to commit to forward guidance, the shift on the committee is clear.

🔥producer prices came in hot, again in May. Together with the CPI, the imply an increase in the PCE of 0.5% on total and 0.3% on core. That would boost the PCE to an annual increase of 4.2% in May, which easier year on year comps, especially in energy buoying those gains.

I turned to actor Peter Sellers’ character in the movie Being There for my inspiration this month. He was a simple gardener catapulted to fame as by the economic & political elite who heard what they wanted to hear in his literal explanations of the four seasons & how a garden grows.

🔥Job gains surge 172k, aided by a sharp 52K increase in government hires, largely at the local level. Federal employment added 1K jobs, and is down ~ 350K since Oct 2024. A surge in layoffs, quits & retirements have left staffing shortages across fed agencies - it’s at the lowest level since 1966.

Fed’s inflation target came in hot & sticky in April, fueling Fed’s pivot to a rate hike instead of a cut. High inflation & loss of transfers for Medicaid and SNAP (food stamps) sapped income growth & drained saving to 2008 lows. Here’s my take on the data. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

This analysis looks at mobility and highlights a key issue. You can improve income mobility - not easy but possible - but wealth mobility is stickier. It is harder to accumulate wealth even if you manage to break out of the income strata in which you were born.

The labor market has an undercurrent…to some it feels like a rip tide. Not a lot of buffer if low hire, low fire economy loses the low fire side of the labor market.

The job finding rate of people not in the labor force (denom: NILF, "want a job now") has weakened in the past 4-6 mo, just like the job finding rate for unemployed people - even as the job market has shown signs of stabilization or even slight warming. Happened after '09 too.

Fed in hot seat The war in Iran is adding fuel to an already well-kindled fire. Inflation has persisted for five years, with its effects compounding over time. Those shifts create a hard backdrop for new supply shocks tied to tariff & energy. We are developing a muscle memory of price hikes.

🔥 inflation hit, more in the pipeline with PPI soaring as well. Next up import prices. We have had 5 years of inflation compounding, driving a wedge between affluent consumers & rest of economy. Stock market gains narrowing, while those who have a job are clinging to it. Those without…

Here are my thoughts from my international meetings. Intense. Chatham House Rules but have distilled into top 10. This month, Bowie and Queen’s song “Under Pressure” fit the bill. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

My full take on the mixed signals in the labor market report. Suffice it to say that workers have reason to feel anxious, despite upside surprise in payroll employment. The news didn’t extend to the household survey, which shed jobs AGAIN & showed stress under the hood.

Coming up on CNN International to talk the conflict in the Middle East and ripple effects for the US and global economy.

Been abroad in meetings. There was an undercurrent to them this year. (More of a riptide) Collecting my thoughts on what I can share. Still processing & recovering from the exhaustion of the changes we are enduring.

Hawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.25% to 3.5% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.”

Farm bankruptcies soared. Tariffs, retaliation, drought conditions emerging and now oil - fertilizers, chemicals & diesel - all hitting ag sector. Midwest hit hardest. Brace for more food price hikes. Critical issue for households & Federal Reserve as food is what is known as a salient good.

We have a lot of history on tariffs and the unintended or ill-fated consequences that they can trigger. Worth a look. Below

Uncertainty clouds Fed calculus The decision to drop the DOJ investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell clears the way for nominee Kevin Warsh to be confirmed. He should be sworn in by the time that Powell’s term as chairman lapses in mid-May.

Hard world we live in.

The Federal Reserve meets next week. Expect an uncomfortable hold with debate within the Fed intensifying about whether its next move is up or down on rates. Its inflation-fighting credibility is eroding. My take for April FOMC kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Supply chains are fast approaching COVID level disruptions in some countries. There is no Las Vegas in global economy; what happens abroad doesn’t stay there. The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/w...

Future & spot prices for oil are diverging. What matters most for buyers - the actual prices or spot price of oil. That is their cost. They can’t decouple but the effects of higher oil prices linger, before we get to the disruptions to global supply chains. This is not a one & done event.

Coming up on CNBC exchange with Kelly Evans & @steveliesman.bsky.social to talk CPI and the road forward for the Federal Reserve.

🔥CPI surges on higher energy costs, with the largest monthly increase since the nearing the peak of the pandemic in June 2022. Gains were driven by a surge in energy cost. Fuel oil jumped 30.7% during the month, its faster pace since Feb 2000.

🔥The PCE index, which the Federal Reserve targets, rose 0.4% in Feb, up a tick from the 0.3% pace in Jan. That translates to 2.8% y/y, which is same as Feb. Measured of momentum accelerated. The 3 & 6-month annualized pace moved up, to 4.1% & 3.4 from 3.5% & 3.2% in Jan.

open.substack.com/pub/kathleen... Great conversation between Kathleen Hayes and @dianeswonk.bsky.social on inflation, jobs report, dual mandate and current state of the economy. #Economy

This month, I was inspired by Jackson Browne’s Running on Empty. Lots of scenarios for the economy & war in Iran. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Listen to Marketplace radio with Sabri Ben-Achor to hear KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk on the economic outlook.

The threshold for a rate cut rose in March. The Fed could finally bring the debate about risks that the next rate move could be up or down likely to make it out of discussion in the statement in March.

Wow. Pure moment of joy watching Artemis ll launch successfully with my family. To journey where no humans have gone before…hope springs eternal. That which binds us is greater than that which divides us. Break bread, not ties. Be kind; pay it forward. New meaning to the Dark Side of the Moon.

Fed sounding way too dovish…this is more than an oil shock…. Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/p...

Testing the voracity of the K shaped economy. Note. Wealth effects tend to be asymmetric- the hurt mort when wealth hit than help when wealth expands, although there is the largest cushion for affluent household on record - both absolute & after adjusting for inflation.

“People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.