We’re excited to officially welcome‪ @chloergibbs.bsky.social and @moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social to the Upjohn Institute research team! Chloe brings deep expertise in education policy, while Monique’s research explores systemic inequality in economic outcomes. #EconSky

Fed Fight: It’s Trump vs Jerome Powell. Why an Independent Fed matters @chafkin.bsky.social and I talk with @marthagimbel.bsky.social this week on Everybody’s Business from @businessweektr.bsky.social @bloomberg.com #jeromepowell #federalreserve #economy

cordelia is arguably the first mentally well person in the history of literature

If you’re questioning the integrity of BLS statistics “because ADP” I cannot help you

House/Senate are set to eliminate Grad PLUS, and put in place loan limits that would dramatically restrict graduate borrowing. Media coverage emphasizes impact this may have on very expensive programs like Medicine and Dentistry, but @peerresearch.bsky.social finds impact will be much(!) broader 1/

Scratching my head at the CEA estimate that their economic plan will lower debt/GDP by at least 3pp in FY 2025. There are only 3 months left in FY 2025. And tariff revenue < 0.5% of GDP. So would need about 12% annualized GDP growth in Q3 to hit this target.

CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3

Cynthia Erivo just rhymed “Odenkirk and watch Cole werk.” I’m satisfied!

New from @budgetlab.bsky.social: there's been a lot of debate on the macroeconomic impacts of the bill. We find that passing the bill generates SMALL amounts of growth from 2025-2027...but after that it's a drag on growth

A reminder that today is Tony’s day so if you don’t want theater tweets all night mute me now

I finally got the email I’ve been expecting for weeks: my baby’s diaper brand is throwing in the towel and raising prices due to “global economic factors and rising material costs”

USA USA USA www.nytimes.com/2025/05/15/h...

Everybody stop what you’re doing and read @jasonfurman.bsky.social on why trade is good actually www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/o...

Work requirements and price controls - what a Sunday night

Listen to @budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social on the @theatlantic.com podcast episode that explores the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior.

@budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social and @ernietedeschi.bsky.social in the @nytimes.com

Has anyone ever pulled together or done (or seen) a task similarity matrix for the O*Net tasks? Basically - if you have information on a subset of the tasks, has someone done the work to figure out how similar certain tasks are to each other

Video of Hutchins Center conversation on safeguarding the stability of the global banking system and the state of bank supervisinon with ECB’s Claudia Buch, Nicolas Veron, and Michael Silva. @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/events/safeg...

So I just picked up the phone and got hit with a new scam: someone tried to tell me they were with CBP and I had to give them $100 to get the package I ordered into the country. So now we’re using tariffs for phone scams!

ACLU says another three US citizen children were disappeared from their own country today: www.aclu.org/press-releas...

Seeing a redacted birth certificate of a two-year-old attached to a habeas petition is what broke me.

NEW: A federal judge raised alarm Friday that the Trump administration appeared to have deported a 2-year-old U.S. citizen to Honduras with "no meaningful process" — even as her father was fighting to keep her in the country. Details w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

Hello, EconSky! We are hiring a lead economist at CAP. My DMs are open if you want to talk through the position and CAP generally. Crucially, we are right next to a great bubble tea spot. www.americanprogress.org/job/senior-f...

My mother just informed me that when she was a child Easter eggs were real eggs dyed by hand and they didn’t have access to fun plastic eggs with cool toys and candy inside and I refuse to contemplate this type of 1950s future for my child

…isn’t this a version of what Matilda’s dad got up to?

Killing your greatest export is an unusual tactic in the midst of a trade war. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Happy [No] Taco Tuesday!

Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/

Friends coming back online after having been offline the last few days for Passover

A second new position at @capolicylab.bsky.social - this one for a research manager for our criminal justice work.

It's from the Yale Budget Lab. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fis...

I wasn’t alive then but my understand is the inflation situation was A+ in 1981 and we look back on it fondly

JPMORGAN: To argue that today’s 145% China tariff clarification “is somehow less of a shock as a result is very misguided .. The sudden stop of roughly $450bn in US imports and the resulting disruption to US supply chains would be a significant blow .. We maintain our call for a US recession ..”

@hamiltonproject.org’s federal outlay tracker is now updated with the March Monthly Treasury Statement (and the Daily Treasury Statement, obviously.) www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin...

WATCH— @jessicatarlov.bsky.social : “Why are you making fun of smart people that calculate things?” Jessica points out Trump is making it seem like he paused all the tariffs but the Yale budget lab says those remaining will cost each 🇺🇸 household $4400, the highest tariff rate since 1909.

It’s weird to say I enjoyed speaking with @michellesingletary.bsky.social and Jenn White today about the impacts of tariffs because it was quite a depressing conversation- but I felt honored to have it with them! the1a.org/segments/pro...

Come for the actual analysis, stay for me finding out live that my diapers are Canadian

Given clarifications from the Administration about the China tariffs, @budgetlab.bsky.social has updated its estimates to reflect a 145% maximum China rate from 2025 policy versus the 125% we assumed before. The report link is the same. Some key takeaways... 1/7

I talked to @marthagimbel.bsky.social, exec director of @budgetlab.bsky.social and a new mom (along w other experts) about how tariffs will impact families

We've updated our @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff estimates in light of yesterday's announcement of a 90-day 10% "reciprocal" tariff and a 125% China tariff. Some key takeaways... 1/7

Now at 10am ET. Tune into @npr.org 1A to hear @marthagimbel.bsky.social discuss economic uncertainty and the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social reports.

TL;DR: The new U.S. tariff rate against our two largest trading partners is either 10%, 25% or 35%, and so far no one I've reached out to at the White House is able to tell me which.

nvm

Last May @budgetlab.bsky.social published a piece on the political risks to the US's safe harbor premium pointing out that even a relatively modest move in risk premia would be bad - and that markets weren't thinking about the fact that it was a possibility. 1/

We are hiring an education researcher to join the @capolicylab.bsky.social and @berkeleycshe.bsky.social teams. You'll work on projects using administrative data relating to California higher education. Here's more information: capolicylab.org/careers/rese...

Really missing Ben White right now

Here's a quick update to the @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff tracker to incorporate the add'l 50% US tariffs on China & China's add'l retaliation. • The average effective US tariff rate is now 26.8%, the highest since 1903. • US real GDP growth is -1.1pp lower over 2025. 1/3

One important thing to note. Yesterday's report had revenue at $3.009 trillion. Now, with the add'l 50% tariffs on China, it's $2.843 trillion. We've now flipped to the right side of the tariff Laffer Curve.