This bill spends $3T+ to make the tax code more complex and Americans less healthy In every regard, it is a mistake: Grows deficits but shrinks the economy, makes gun silencers more available but healthy food less so My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Here is what the distribution of the reconciliation bill looks like including tariffs, hot off @budgetlab.bsky.social presses. Income falls for the *bottom 80%* of households. Full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/com...

LIVE NOW at @columbiaigp.bsky.social 🔴 @awhf.bsky.social, R. Glenn Hubbard, Jennifer Klein, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, & Richard Clarida discuss the far-reaching implications of the federal budget bill Tune in: youtube.com/live/sxYxjDL... @columbiasipa.bsky.social @columbiauniversity.bsky.social

Great to be with Wolf Blitzer and @pamelabrowncnn.bsky.social on @cnn.com Situation Room this morning talking China and the latest inflation numbers. Link here: youtu.be/yQM08o-jM5Q

So fun to join @econjared today for lunch with a healthy dose of econ to talk reconciliation, interest rates, and why we should invest in -- not gut -- the IRS. Link to our conversation here: natashasarin32.substack.com/p/7280ed14-6...

@natasharsarin.bsky.social: Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 preventable deaths. Some estimates based on existing research on Medicaid effects on mortality: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Loss of insurance from GOP bill could mean more than 100,000 deaths. My latest from @postopinions.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Wonderful to join @pbsnews.org last night to talk about the risks of our high and rising national debt. Link here: www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

This is unlawful, un-American, and ultimately -- like so much we've seen recently -- will serve to make this country less great And from a President who just last year thought college grads should get green cards so we retain the brightest foreign talent www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...

Republicans are haggling over the details of how much to cut Medicaid and food stamps while also trying to give bigger tax breaks to the richest Americans. @danamilbank.bsky.social, James Hohmann and @natasharsarin.bsky.social discuss whether Republicans can get this bill over the finish line:

Here are three arguments the Trump administration might try to make to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, none of which should hold water in the eyes of the law, @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes: wapo.st/42ScSPt

Great to be with Sara Sidner @cnn.com last night talking tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social new analysis of the China pause. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbxP...

Join us today at 12 pm for an important conversation between @neeratanden.bsky.social and @larrysummers.bsky.social on the fiscal impact of DOGE's IRS layoffs. Janet Holtzblatt, @jessicabriedl.bsky.social, and @natasharsarin.bsky.social will also be joining in a panel discussion:

No, the Administration cannot legally revoke Harvard's -- or other nonprofits' -- tax-exempt status. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

"The question facing Republican lawmakers in Congress now is a math one," @natasharsarin.bsky.social writes. "They are failing that arithmetic test." wapo.st/43izlVU

This is a bonker bananas statement that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how the IRS works and flies in the face of the vast empirical evidence that shows dollars spent on tax enforcement activities have huge returns. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...

Tax cuts for all — paid for by none — isn’t an equation that makes much sense for the American economy. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Great to be with @cnn.com this morning on the market's latest movements, Fed independence, and @budgetlab.bsky.social's work on how political risks threaten our safe harbor status. Link here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF7-...

The tax code has protections against exactly this: Section 7217 makes it illegal for political officials within the Executive Branch -- incl the President -- to request an audit or investigation of a particular taxpayer Need an investigation to revoke tax exempt status. www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/p...

This is terrible, terrible, terrible news for the American people and the tax system. The only winners are high-cost tax preparers. When fully built out, Direct File would've saved taxpayers ~$20B annually. apnews.com/article/irs-...

Wonderful to discuss tariffs, Tax Day, and our work @budgetlab.bsky.social with @stephruhle.bsky.social on @msnbc.com's 11th Hour last night Also featuring the great @gilliantett.bsky.social, @jonallendc.bsky.social and @lukebroadwater.bsky.social Link here: www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...

Exactly this, from @natasharsarin.bsky.social & former IRS commissioner Danny Werfel: "In other words, an extremely diminished IRS could unlock a race to the bottom and create an evasion advantage for those who are comfortable skirting their tax bills." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

This team is so brilliant, and I'm so grateful to get to learn from them each day. Also so grateful for the icon that is @marthagimbel.bsky.social! Starting something is hard and scary. But much less so with Martha at the helm. We at @budgetlab.bsky.social are so beyond fortunate to have her.

Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/

Today is Tax Day. And while few people enjoy paying taxes, they want a fair system. That system is in danger right now. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social pinions with former IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel is here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Great to be back with Squawk Box @cnbc.com discussing the impact of tariffs on inflation and our work at @budgetlab.bsky.social www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...

New from @budgetlab.bsky.social e_Budget_Lab on tariff latest. In aggregate, tariffs are basically at same level they were prior to this "pause" / China increases. And that level is *high* Highest since 1909. Resulting in higher prices for American families, ~$4,400 annually in short-run.

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way. We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.

This morning in my “Big, beautiful bill” newsletter: The potential cost of tax noncompliance. IRS’s deal to share confidential taxpayer data with ICE could cost up to *$479 billion* over 10 years, @natasharsarin.bsky.social’s team at Yale finds. More here: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

So thrilled to get to speak with @kyla.bsky.social this week on the importance of funding the IRS -- and the risks of decimating the agency. Here's a link to our conversation for @leadingindicator.bsky.social: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKqz...

Grateful to @jacobbogage.bsky.social for covering @budgetlab.bsky.social new report on the distributional effects of the House-passed Budget Resolution. Overall: huge tax cuts for higher-income families are partially paid for by cutting healthcare and SNAP, *raising costs* for the bottom 40%

"When you meet those dying children and look into their eyes and hold their hands and feel faint heartbeats flutter, you can’t bear the gleeful laughter. You see children just like your own and hang your head in shame." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

The top 1% already dodges $200 billion in taxes every year. Slashing the IRS means less enforcement ➡️ billions back in the pockets of wealthy tax cheats. It’s anything but efficient. @natasharsarin.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

DOGE says its saving $100 billion. But it's about to lose a lot more. Cuts to the IRS will backfire and add to the deficit by giving tax evaders a free pass. My latest in @postopinions.bsky.social s Link here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Great to be with Wolf Blitzer @cnnsitroom.bsky.social this morning on inflation and tariff risks. Link here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=slJy...

Here is what an IRS cafeteria in Austin looked like just a few years ago. With an understaffed IRS, people were waiting years for these returns to be processed and refunds issued No one picked up when you called with questions. Destroying the agency means more photos like

Every dollar spent on high-end tax enforcement generates $12 for the fisc By gutting the IRS, this Admin is making a giant giveaway for tax cheats the crux of its tax agenda Today we don't collect $600B/year in taxes owed. That will jump if these plans go through www.nytimes.com/2025/03/04/u...

It was great to join @msnbc.com this afternoon to discuss the risks associated with DOGE's actions. Watch here: www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/...

Really looking forward to this timely conversation tomorrow on tax policy in 2025 with George Callas @arnoldventures.bsky.social and @brendanvduke.bsky.social @centeronbudget.bsky.social moderated by @neilirwin.bsky.social @axios.com Join us! Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

IRS Commissioners from every administration from Reagan through Trump 1: cutting the IRS doesn't add up. (No kidding.) www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/o...

I am devastated for the IRS and its employees, who believe so deeply in the importance of a tax system that works for all Americans. It is worth shouting from the rooftops that this purge is going to COST MONEY and make fighting fraud HARDER.

To call this an unusual or alarming request is an understatement. This type of access poses an enormous threat to data privacy, national security, and the stability of our tax system. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Great to be with Major Garrett @cbseveningnews.bsky.social last night on the risks of compromising the Treasury payments system: www.cbsnews.com/video/former...

Post Next 50! Thrilled for @budgetlab.bsky.social's @natasharsarin.bsky.social named by @washingtonpost.com as part of the first-ever Post Next 50, a list of people whose work will shape our society. wapo.st/NatashaSarin

Thrilled to be recognized by @washingtonpost.com as part of their inaugural Post Next 50, a list of people whose work will shape our society. wapo.st/NatashaSarin

Five former Treasury Secretaries: Our Democracy is Under Siege www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/o...

“Any hint of the selective suspension of congressionally authorized payments will be a breach of trust and ultimately, a form of default,” five former U.S. Treasury secretaries write. “And our credibility, once lost, will prove difficult to regain.”

I am looking to hire a pre-doc starting this summer at @yale.edu Tobin Center focused on public finance, with the chance to work with my great coauthors like Larry Summers, Sylvain Catherine, and Max Miller. Please share widely and apply! tobin.yale.edu/opportunitie...

Hi friends, I'm late but taking the leap over here, so please follow me for econ musings, @budgetlab.bsky.social latest, and occasional dog content.

My latest this week in @postopinions.bsky.social -- Elon Musk has your social security number. It's as scary as it sounds. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...