Today. Nov. 12 at 12:10pm ET. Join the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar, "Undermining Democratic Institutions: A Hidden Threat to Economic Growth." Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

New report this morning from @budgetlab.bsky.social thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology. 1/7

New report today featured in @financialtimes.com article, "AI is not killing jobs," by @senojerialc.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/c9f9...

New from me @mollykinder.bsky.social Josh Kendall and Maddie Lee: how should we be tracking the impact of AI on the labor market? Tldr: no signs of major disruptions yet, but we plan to update our trackers monthly 1/

Tomorrow. September 30 at noon EDT. Join this timely webinar to discuss tariffs in an uncertain legal environment. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update out tonight, incorporating the heavy truck, furniture, and pharmaceutical tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday. Details are still sparse; we will update in the future as more specifics about the policy are published. In brief... 1/10

Join us Tuesday, September 30 at noon EDT for the @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar "Tariffs in an Uncertain Legal Environment." Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi... Panelists: @anaswanson.bsky.social, Peter Harrell, @scottlincicome.bsky.social, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social

New report from @budgetlab.bsky.social about the effects of tariffs on poverty. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/eff...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all tariffs through Sept 3. This is a major update. We: • incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares; • show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026. In brief... 1/12

@natasharsarin.bsky.social spoke with @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social on where the economy is going and @budgetlab.bsky.social's latest work. Listen here: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/o...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all 2025 tariffs through today, including the higher 50% rate on India. In brief... 1/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the Administration's new list of "reciprocal" tariffs published last night and going into effect August 7, as well as maintaining the 25% rate on Mexico. In brief... 1/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

We @budgetlab.bsky.social have put together an analysis of the OBBBA's effect on the time burden of filing taxes. The TCJA reduced just about everyone's filing burden - a true benefit of the passage of the bill. However, OBBBA undoes many of those gains.

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief... 1/10

Listen to @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @npr.org discuss the latest on tariffs with @steveinskeep.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/07/28/n...

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief... 1/10

Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 10/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 10/10

New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

@tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com includes @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis in latest article. Read the full report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/dis...

Today. Noon ET. Join this timely webinar about the macroeconomics impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Register here: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Watch @ernietedeschi.bsky.social on @11thhourmsnbc.bsky.social discuss the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social report about the combined distributional effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and of tariffs: www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/wa...

Register for the next @budgetlab.bsky.social webinar on Monday, June 23 at noon ET. A timely discussion of the potential macroeconomic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update through June 16, incorporating: • Broader scope for the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs to include some steel-derivative products. • Relaxation of Chinese export restrictions on magnets & rate minerals. • New distributional methodology. 1/9

👀 Remember these ~distributions~ on Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”? Then, boy, do I have news for you. Taking the bill and tariffs together, the bottom **80%** of households are worse off, @budgetlab.bsky.social found.

New @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis about the combined distributional effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and Tariffs in @jacobbogage.bsky.social's Early Brief @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the...

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3

Two new pieces from @budgetlab.bsky.social (links at end). First, TBL finds that the rise in interest rates associated with OBBBA will raise consumer & business costs. E.g., by 2030, the annual mortgage payment on a typical home purchase would rise by >$1,000, & by $4,000 by 2030. 1/3

@budgetlab.bsky.social report featured in @axios.com today. www.axios.com/2025/06/05/t...

Full @budgetlab.bsky.social report: budgetlab.yale.edu/r... 8/8

@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update is out, incorporating 1) reinstatement of the IEEPA tariffs, given the appeals court stay of the USCIT ruling; 2) the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs announced by the Administration; 3) recent increases in USMCA-compliant trade with Canada. 1/8

Watch @natasharsarin.bsky.social on @cnbc.com this morning discuss the latest news on tariffs and the economy. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0...

Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect? The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff. 1/7

Read the new report from @budgetlab.bsky.social that scores the budgetary effects of the May 2025 Tax Bill. budgetlab.yale.edu/research/bud...

Great to be with Sara Sidner @cnn.com last night talking tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social new analysis of the China pause. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbxP...

New tariff update today from @budgetlab.bsky.social incorporating 1. Today's announcement of lower US-China tariffs (10% instead of 125% reciprocal tariffs); 2. The May 8 US-UK trade deal; and, 3. The April 29 auto tariff rebate announcement. Some high level takeaways: 1/13

Listen to @budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social on the @theatlantic.com podcast episode that explores the impact of tariffs and consumer behavior.

@budgetlab.bsky.social's @marthagimbel.bsky.social and @ernietedeschi.bsky.social in the @nytimes.com

Join @budgetlab.bsky.social for our next TCJA webinar, "The Child Tax Credit," on Thursday, April 17 at noon EDT. @dylanmatt.bsky.social @vox.com will moderate discussion with @meganacurran.bsky.social, Joshua McCabe, and John Ricco. Register: yale.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Today. April 16 at 10am ET. Tune into @npr.org 1A to hear @ernietedeschi.bsky.social discuss the latest on tariffs and @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis. the1a.org

@budgetlab.bsky.social's Tariff Tuesday continues with an update through April 15 reflecting: • China retaliation upped to 125% • China importing export controls on certain minerals & magnets • Clarification on the semiconductor exemption Some high level takeaways: 1/8

Last April @natasharsarin.bsky.social Danny Yagan and I launched @budgetlab.bsky.social. We were excited about our team and what we were planning to produce - but absolutely could not have predicted this wild year 1/

Given clarifications from the Administration about the China tariffs, @budgetlab.bsky.social has updated its estimates to reflect a 145% maximum China rate from 2025 policy versus the 125% we assumed before. The report link is the same. Some key takeaways... 1/7

We've updated our @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff estimates in light of yesterday's announcement of a 90-day 10% "reciprocal" tariff and a 125% China tariff. Some key takeaways... 1/7

Now at 10am ET. Tune into @npr.org 1A to hear @marthagimbel.bsky.social discuss economic uncertainty and the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social reports.

Last May @budgetlab.bsky.social published a piece on the political risks to the US's safe harbor premium pointing out that even a relatively modest move in risk premia would be bad - and that markets weren't thinking about the fact that it was a possibility. 1/