A thing about modern life I don't care for is every service provider hectoring you to give them an online review afterward. Constant texts trying to get me to give gold stars to the plumber, the furniture delivery guy, the pediatric urgent care, etc. THAT'S WHAT THE MONEY IS FOR

Some personal news... I'm leaving Axios at the end of this month! Which means there's now an opening for a markets reporter. Apply here! job-boards.greenhouse.io/axios/jobs/6...

This is very good.

Now, more than ever:

Sometimes you just have to let the robot know who's boss.

Stroll down (unhappy) memory lane with the great @vermontgmg.bsky.social who is out with an oral history of the Bear Stearns collapse/rescue. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

If you're just a guy who has covered central banking for the last 20 years and has known Mark Carney and his mindset for a long time, it is disconcerting to watch this.

Energy executives do not like what they're getting out of the administration. "I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career." www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

And then it was of course smooth sailing in the months and years that followed May 2007.

I like to eat the occasional banana and favor an economic structure that makes this possible.

It's just the preliminary numbers, for which n=~420, and sentiment hasn't been a good guide to consumer activity in recent years. But this is, um, really bad. www.axios.com/2025/03/14/c...

This is maybe the most profound and important take ever for us to all internalize.

I will never tire of a company with a [checks notes] $1.03 trillion market cap sticking with a the 1997-era-Geocities-style website. At this point it would be disappointing if they were to modernize it.

This chart from the BLS's press release tells the not-so-great story of where we are on inflation.

Hurts gets MVP, yes?

Things getting real for Canada-domiciled bourbon enthusiasts. www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/o...

Another Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl is a dark timeline that we cannot avoid. Apparently.

Who’s gonna make the Luvu dive a meme?

Big news in the Fed press corps!

The NFL to everyone: ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED???

Turns out it is enjoyable to watch your city’s NFL team play in a competent manner against excellent competition in the playoffs. Who knew?

Defense, what is it?

NFL weeks, ranked: 1) Divisional playoff weekend 2) Conference championship weekend 3) Week 1 4) Super Bowl 5) Thanksgiving 6) Wild card weekend

"The best way to make a successful transition to the public sector is to do so with humility. The alternative, in many cases, is to have humility thrust upon you." www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...

Turned on Texans-Chargers like 10m ago and every play has been the craziest thing I ever saw.

It’s no longer the Economists’ Hour. Well done from @bencasselman.bsky.social here. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/b...

Anybody up for a little mid-cycle adjustment? The 2019 FOMC transcripts are out! Have at it. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

Robusto! +256k on payrolls in December, unemployment rate edges down to 4.1%

Fed vice-chair for supervision Michael Barr is stepping down from that role, while remaining a Fed governor, front-running a potential legal clash over whether Trump can demote him. Come for the news, stay for the gaming out Trump's options for reshaping the Fed. www.axios.com/2025/01/06/b...

Like all good late-GenXers, I'm using this snow day to teach my progeny the Mr. Plow jingle

Can't help but think the U.S. Steel/Nippon deal would have gone through with minimal controversy if the companies were named, like, SteelCorp and Industriex. Which isn't a great basis for public policy, but here we are.

Jason bringing the 🔥🔥

I feel like the existence of this photo is a piece of evidence that we're living in a simulation.

For some reason over the past few weeks the 20th century is finally starting to feel like a period in the distant past rather than recent history.

2024 is now on the books for financial markets. S&P 500 up 23%, for a total return (including dividends) right at +25%. 10-year Treasury yield ends at 4.57%, up about 70bps from a year ago. Good job, everybody.

Natural gas futures up more than 21% at one point this morning, one of the bigger moves ever.

Fun fact: Nobody anywhere has any idea what day of the week this is. Is it Wednesday? Friday? Sunday?

As a general rule, other peoples’ fantasy football stories are the most boring thing on earth. This is an exception.

That thing when you're glad your local NFL team is fun and good for the first time in your adult life, but really don't care for this "flexing the game into the late late slot" stuff. Two more hours until kickoff, total madness.

I have no rooting interest in Bengals-Broncos, not even a minor wager, but this is OUTSTANDING content.

Can DOGE do something about excessively difficult-to-open toy packaging?

Wow. Take a look at the U Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for December: "About 22% of consumers spontaneously reported that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases—the highest reading since 1990. Many...specifically identified future tariffs as the culprit."

Inbox: Here's Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack on why she dissented from Wednesday's rate cut.

You can imagine an alternate universe where the Fed is a little quicker on its feet and more willing to surprise markets in which it 1) Cut 25bps in July, 2) would have cut only 25bps in September, with no need for a super-sized move, 3) Did another 25bps in November then 3) Skipped this month.

14 out of 19 Fed officials see two or fewer cuts as likely to be justified next year. Consensus view of '25 and '26 inflation (both core and headline) bumped up a good bit. Cleveland Fed chief Beth Hammack dissented, wanting to stand pat. Pretty hawkish mix!

Kind of amazing that the nation's 2d through 5th largest metro areas (LA, DMV, Chicagoland, Bay Area) have a grand total of 3 skyscrapers under construction.

We each have our own definition of "urgent."

The European mind can’t comprehend, etc. etc.

Inbox: Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed's markets group, is heading to the private sector.