44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year (due mainly to Trump's tariffs) We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980) via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers

Fed Chair Powell key takeaways: 1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high." 2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move" 3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over 4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"

Big congrats to @kedseconomist.com on the launch of her great new podcast "Optimist Economy." Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them. Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...

Must read from reporting today from @crampell.bsky.social & @ashendruk.com How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data "The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

NEWS: I'm excited to announce that I'll be interviewing Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, April 4 at 11:25am alongside James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference. There's much to discuss! Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.

Elon Musk said DOGE made a mistake by cutting USAID’s Ebola prevention but it had been “restored.” That’s not true, current and former officials told me and @johnphudson.bsky.social. “There have been no efforts to ‘turn on’” Ebola prevention, said Nidhi Bouri, who oversaw team until January.

Most on this site know that federal workers are good people who work hard. But it's striking to see the data. Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed. Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Important post from one of former Gov. Cuomo’s victims.

Lmao a Nobel Prize winner finds the solution to the global fertility collapse is for men to do the dishes and laundry more often -- more or less the precise opposite of the trad prescription Fabulous @byheatherlong.bsky.social essay www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Take a look at this chart. We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next. This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Former BLS commissioner Erica Groshen on how the policy change to Schedule F that Trump & #Project2025 advocate would destroy the credibility of the federal statistical system. Her comment on LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/posts/erica-... ...

You can really see the high monthly inflation gain in January (0.5%) on the bar chart. [Forecasts were for just a 0.3% gain] Why? -Gas prices up -Energy/utility prices up -Food prices (esp. groceries) up -Transportation costs up -Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)

JUST IN: Inflation ticked back up to 3% (y/y) in January --> the highest since June. The monthly gain was 0.5% (above expectations). Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed. "Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.

Former Treasury official Natasha Sarin writes "there is no legitimate reason for [Elon Musk/DOGE] to have this access" to the federal payment system. Sarin outlines just how scary this is www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

New and important: we built a federal expenditure tracker. All expenditure line items that are available on the Daily Treasury Statement. USAID was zeroed out on 1/28 and has been at zero ever since. www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin... #EconSky

I'm keeping a running list of disappearing federal data in the 🧵 below. If there are others I missed let me know. crampell[at]washpost[dot]com or Signal username crampell.13

President Trump's trade war is here. Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it. 1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1 2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18 3) Oil tariff could be 10% 4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.

This is alarming: The highest career official at Treasury is leaving after a clash w/Elon Musk allies over access to sensitive payment systems. Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments. Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.

Just In: Progress on inflation is stalling. PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer. Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.

Again, universal 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico would hit ~$900B of US imports, ~30% of all goods brought into the country, including pretty devastating impacts on US energy, vehicle, & food supply chains Prices for gas & groceries like tomatoes/beer/cabbages would jump

WAPO: “.. Just 24 hours before the collision of American Eagle Flight 5342 and an Army Black Hawk .. another jet trying to land there had to make a second approach after a helicopter appeared near its flight path, according to an audio recording ..” www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...

Wow. Look at the big surge in Americans buying "durable goods" in Q4 2024. Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs?? We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.

Here's the deeper dive on Q4 GDP growth: US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now. Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.

Just in: The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024, another year of strong growth. President Trump inherited a very good economy. Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending. GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation) 6.1% in 2021 2.5% in 2022 2.9% in 2023 2.8% in 2024

NEWS: Fed Chair Powell says he has "had no contact" with President Trump. [Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]

Must read by @crampell.bsky.social today: "Americans are watching an inflation bait-and-switch" Trump promised to bring down prices on Day 1 "A week into office, he has offered zero plans to do so," Rampell says. "Worse, he has undertaken a litany of measures that would raise the cost of living."

What a chart... The US share of single moms (19%) is actually pretty similar to many other advanced economy nations. What is different? = US child poverty (20%) is way higher than other nations. From @andrewvandam.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

".. Silicon Valley broligarchs focused far too much on making AI that topped the benchmark rankings in an ego-driven, my-model-is-bigger-than-yours-contest .. DeepSeek’s success should serve as a wake-up call .." @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Another great piece @byheatherlong.bsky.social, pointing out that while unemployment rates are low, so is the hiring rate…3.3%, the lowest since 2013. “The current hiring rate is what we typically see when the unemployment rate is 8 percent.” #econsky wapo.st/4jpLyOJ

NEW: In the ‘Great Stay’ economy, Americans feel stuck Hiring right now is anemic (esp. outside healthcare & gov) People aren't moving Promotions and bonuses are down People even keep cars for record time People feel cemented in place. That's tough if you don't like your current job or home.

Number of disasters per year that caused at least $1 billion in damage (in inflation-adjusted dollars) via @byheatherlong.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “.. What happened that day is a stain on Mr. Trump’s legacy. By setting free the cop beaters, the President adds another.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...

Most industries that had the sharpest increases in remote work also saw increased productivity. Three exceptions: funds/trusts; insurance carriers; Fed banks/credit intermediation www.bls.gov/opub/ted/202...

It's official: The 30-year mortgage rate is back above 7% for the first time since May. Freddic Mac says the average rate is 7.04% This is one of the least affordable times to buy a home in the past 40 years. It's a big problem for the US, esp. Millennials and Gen Z.

Inflation is back near 3% (it was 2.9% in December). The Fed's goal = 2% "Core inflation" down in December, but that's not much comfort to the middle class. Bottom line: It's going to be a battle in 2025 to get inflation fully gone. This is a warning to Trump as he readies tariffs and big tax cuts

JUST IN: Inflation remains stubborn. Inflation rose 2.9% (y/y) in December —> the highest annual increase since July. For the month of December alone, inflation rose 0.4% —> the highest since March. Energy (esp. gas) accounted for 40% of the increase. Food also up. Core CPI rose 3.2% (y/y).

Trump wants to create an "External Revenue Service" to collect tariffs. This is clever marketing, but it doesn't change the fact that American consumers will end up paying these higher tariffs. (Note: US Customs and Border Protection currently collects tariffs and duties as goods enter the USA).

Notable: The Sahm Rule Recession indicator is no longer flashing red. It fell back below the 0.5 trigger level in October, November and December. Normally the Sahm Rule is triggered and it keeps going up as a recession becomes clearer. This time? It's coming back down. December level = 0.4

Job gains in 2024 were heavily dominated by healthcare and government. These two sectors made up about 2/3rds of jobs added. Total jobs added: 2.2 million Healthcare: 971,000 --> 44% of total job gains Gov't: 440,000 --> 20% Hospitality: 285,000 --> 13%

JUST IN: A strong December jobs report. The US economy added 256,000 jobs (well above expectations). Overall, the US added 2.2 million jobs in 2024. That’s about the same as 2018. Unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% Wages grew 3.9% in past year (well above 2.7% inflation)

The US economy added 2.2 million jobs in 2024. It's a significant slowdown from recent years, but it's similar job gains to 2017-2019. Bottom line: No recession in sight. 2024: 2.2 million 2023: 3m 2022: 4.5m 2021: 7.2m 2020: -9.3m 2019: 2m 2018: 2.3m 2017: 2.1m

NEW: Trump isn't just threatening "very high" tariffs on Denmark, Canada, etc. He's openly saying that he wants tariffs to pay for his $5T tax cuts. This will leave the bottom 50% (and likely more) of Americans worse off. Let me highlight a few estimates: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

The hiring rate was anemic at the end of 2024. November's hiring rate of 3.3% was the lowest since the early 2010s. We need hiring to pick up in 2025. This is not a healthy labor market dynamic to have such weak hiring.

Fascinating paper by Claudia Goldin on drivers of low fertility in advanced economies. Countries where economic progress outstrips social progress (in particular, gender equality in household division of labour) see the most rapid falls in fertility.. www.nber.org/papers/w33311

News from #ASSA2025: There are only about 30 Black economists who received their PhDs after 2006 in economics departments. The share of economists who are Black has remained at 3% over the last 15+ years. The share of economists who are Hispanic has increased to 6% from 4% over the same timespan.

in the past two weeks, something changed for the first time since Feb. 2020, searches for the flu overtook searches for covid 19 is that symbolic? can we say the pandemic phase is over and we're endemic now? trends.google.com/trends/explo...

Ron Johnson, who sits on the Senate Budget and Finance Committees, writes in a WSJ op-ed that he wants to cut federal spending by $1.3 trillion a year (from $6.8t to $5.5t). He's excluding cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Total discretionary spending is about $1.8 trillion.

Women do 2x as much housework a day as men, BLS data shows. Women still do most of the cleaning, laundry and basic meal prep. Men do more yard work. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Big news from WaPo: Biden has decided to BLOCK Japan’s Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel. Announcement expected tomorrow. Full story: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

The overall solid consumer performance belies a growing divergence in wage growth, wealth, and spending