Not OK: Before and during the pandemic, lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. But that has changed over the past year Torsten at Apollo

WSJ reports the recent fall in crypto hurts bitcoin treasury companies, like Strategy, which are basically leveraged bets on BTC. Also, not in the story but important: Trump family wealth is tied up in this strategy. Eric Trump and Don Jr have significant stakes in bitcoin treasury companies.

the truth is, I have no idea -- and several states, in fact, did not have any idea -- how this guidance would be implemented and what it would mean in practice. which is the problem, of course. it creates only more confusion around a program in serious trouble.

Brazilian beef is tariffed at 76.4%

What we’re learning here is that the banks under Warren’s jurisdiction aren’t confirming any participation in the $20b private bailout fund. It may be vaporware. Or it could be run through hedge funds, sovereign funds, etc.

Truth Social owner Trump Media took a $54.8 million loss last quarter, the company says. It spent $20.3 million on litigation last quarter related to its process of going public through a SPAC. (There were three felony convictions for insider trading from that process. Other disputes are ongoing.)

Please enjoy Scott Bessent and Larry Kudlow explaining how tariff revenue is just a “coincident” byproduct of the president’s policy of “regulating imports.” Sure, the president has been saying all year tariffs are making us rich, but maybe the Supreme Court won’t notice.

I am no one's idea of a legal analyst, but investors are buying stocks and selling bonds. That is exactly what would happen if the government cut taxes.

"What are taxes" turns out to be the most important legal question of our lifetime.

Treasury yields from 2 years on rose as the Supreme Court tariff hearing began, and they have stayed up. The government's arguments—for now—haven't convinced bond investors that its tariff revenue stream is secure. Perhaps most notably, Chief Justice Roberts said bluntly that tariffs are taxes.

Trump, who acknowledged last night’s elections as a loss, believes that the only antidote for Republicans is more Trump. He is flooding the airwaves today: two speeches and a Fox News interview are on the schedule already.

Stocks will likely rise if the Supreme Court kills the tariffs because it’s more money in companies’ (and your) pockets. Evidence? When he announces tariffs, stocks tend to fall.

Trump on Iraq, 2016: "I’ve always said—shouldn’t be there, but if we’re going to get out, take the oil." NYT 2025: U.S. is considering sending "U.S. counterterrorism forces to seize control of airfields and at least some of Venezuela’s oil fields and infrastructure."

A philosophical question: if 21% of Staten Islanders left the city, would the rest of the city notice?

🚨 BIG 🚨Satmar Ahronim sect is endorsing Mamdani for mayor, two sources familiar confirmed. Mamdani is expected to meet with Satmar leaders in Williamsburg this afternoon. Here is more background ⬇️ forward.com/fast-forward...

Bessent on CNN gives some hints of how he would manage the Fed (a job he says he doesn't want). He says inflation has been driven by federal spending: "If we are contracting spending, then I think inflation would be dropping. If inflation is dropping, then the Fed should be cutting rates."

"Mortgages rates certainly WERE at the lowest levels in more than year when we reported that fact on Tuesday. But what a difference 2 days make. Actual daily average rates are up 0.20% since then--the fastest 2 day rise since the exact same thing happened after last month's Fed rate cut"

The U.S. may conduct air strikes on military targets within Venezuela that the administration associates with drug trafficking, the Journal and Miami Herald are reporting. "The strikes could come at any moment," the Herald reports. www.wsj.com/world/americ... www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...

With Trump still on Air Force One en route back from China talks, the Senate just voted 51-47 to end the national emergency that underpins his tariff powers. This is a symbolic vote that won't get through the House. But the timing is striking between trade talks and next week's Supreme Court ruling.

The American Soybean Association puts Beijing's commitments at the low end of what China has purchased in recent years. “If I was a soybean farmer in the Midwest, I'd be working to decrease my reliance on exports to China,” an analyst says.

Trump’s China deal appears to be the minimum required to be market neutral. A modest tariff reduction, delay of rare earth restrictions, possibility of Nvidia chip sales, some soybean purchases. Maybe more importantly there’s a commitment to ongoing talks. Just enough to shrug at.

Powell's whole discussion of how to manage the balance sheet is something that Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent think should be taken out of the Fed's hands.

Miran dissents again.

Trump-Xi meeting will be 10:00 p.m. U.S. Eastern time Wednesday, the White House says.

The Kevins, call your office

Watch this space: "Trump has previously said he isn’t considering Bessent for the job and he repeated that view Monday. Still, several people who have spoken with Bessent said they believe he could still emerge as a contender for the role if Trump isn’t satisfied with the other options"

The White House put out a new US-Japan critical minerals deal. Unlike the Australia deal signed recently, this one doesn’t include specific dollar commitments. Instead it refers vaguely to financial support and investment. There may be more we don’t see, of course.

Trump and Bessent are taking victory laps after their gamble on Argentine elections paid off. We’ll likely see more risk taking with US funds in support of political allies abroad.

"A 9-minute exchange that left Lula increasingly frustrated and eager to move onto the private portion of their meeting." Pool report on Trump's public meeting with Brazil's Lula overnight in Malaysia.

I saw Eric Trump talk to a roomful of investors in Dubai today about his crypto ventures. The family is not remotely concerned about conflicts of interest. www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Going to war with American farmers because you want to help Argentina doesn't seem like great politics, but what the hell do I know?

“Bessent has said he’s coordinating a separate facility that would be financed by banks and other private institutions. Details on the proposal remain unclear — even to the banks involved, some of the people said.”

Good Fortune piece on the economics of beef imports, after Trump said we might increase Argentine imports to bring down prices here. One reason prices are high to begin with: The US is tariffing Brazil, a much bigger source of beef imports.

Is there any reason a member of the Trump administration might think that a Signal chat isn’t automatically off the record? Nope. Can’t think of anything.

"I don't like you either, and I probably never will," Trump tells Kevin Rudd, who is sitting across from the president at the U.S.-Australia meeting. Rudd is the current Australian ambassador to the U.S. and a former prime minister. A reporter had asked Trump about Rudd's prior criticisms of him.

Australia is literally the only significant source of Gallium (from Bauxite) on the planet that isn't already essentially under Chinese control.

The U.S. has concluded a deal on rare earths with Australia, Trump says as his meeting with PM Anthony Albanese begins. Details still to be seen, but this likely involves some mix of investment in Australian mining firms and purchase commitments.

OK, hear me out. What if the Louvre heist was a decoy to distract us from the real heist, which is happening while the internet is down?

Paging Sec Bessent, Sec Bessent please pick up *ARGENTINE PESO DROPS AS MUCH AS 2.1%, HITS RECORD INTRADAY LOW

Trump is considering a deal with Argentina that would allow the US to buy more Argentine beef, he said on AF1 Sunday. That would expand the bailout beyond financial measures and in principle bring down US beef prices. There is still no sign of a US farm bailout otherwise.

Needless to say this is self-defeating for an administration that insists accelerating growth will pay off its debts. It's also how you start to worry the markets, because shutdown damage leaves more scars.

Bloomberg has gotten its hands on some of the details of the $11 billion Army Corps cuts. Apparently, most comes from New York. Includes New York Harbor projects and Queens sewer/water projects. The flooding problems in Queens are no secret. -- www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he will speak to China's vice premier tonight around 8:30 or 9:00 p.m. He says the administration hadn't been able to get in touch with China before this week following the latest round of escalation.

In private sector, Bessent made his money by betting that Central Banks would not be able to control their currencies. In government, he is betting that Argentina’s, of all countries, will manage to do so.

Why is Scott Bessent's credibility on the line? Bessent to Fox News's Laura Ingraham on Oct. 9: "The Argentine peso is undervalued." The peso has since fallen 3.5% despite US Treasury interventions. The market believes a man who made his career trading on policy mistakes is making one himself.

"'You generally don’t want your first use of the E.S.F. to be a failure,' [Brad] Setser said, referring to the Exchange Stabilization Fund. 'I do think it would impact the broader credibility of Secretary Bessent’s financial management.'"

Bloomberg has some details on private-sector moves to support the peso. These efforts are plainly not sufficient. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bessent promised us a lower 10-year. Don't think he meant like this.

Bessent isn't doing the administrations any favors with his messaging. He reportedly said the new $20b was at least partially private funds. Maybe all? How does that work? Are taxpayers taking risks here? No clue! I've asked a bunch, and gotten nothing. Don't think others know either.

Hassett was asked by Axios for thoughts on Fed reform. Among others, he endorsed Scott Bessent's recent essay on "Gain-of-Function Monetary Policy." Bessent there endorses giving the Treasury control of the Fed's QE. Kevin Warsh shares that view. Now, apparently so does Hassett. More power to Treas?