US and Iran have different definitions of protocol for strait, reconstruction and sanctions relief, and then there’s israel too. Pullling back from more agression and escalation that risks more permanent damage good and maybe best we could get but far from stable situation

Trump appears to have blinked on his timeline and suggests suspending bombing of Iran, with only public ask an full and complete opening of the strait. No word from Iran- would find it hard to believe they allow full opening given leverage, maybe opp to confirm payments?

Leaked pakistani proposal of two week ceasefire proposes Iran open strait. Who benefits and how much from ST opening? could allow stranded vessels out, and some vessels in, but shapes those that would benefit. Would shut in producers restart, probably not given risk recurrence

March was the month that India resumed buying Venezuelan oil (as it has done whenever US allowed). According to early @TankerTrackers data, China also returned to some small purchases in April/ first time since US policies dismantled the discounted oil to teapots channel

Trump speech didnt tell us much new, included recent talking points and greatest hits on US economy. But…it told us he’s not interested in offramps (yet), isnt prioritizing the strait and has a different definition of no harm coming to regional partners substack.com/@reziemba/no...

I’ll be joining @cnbc’s Emily Tan a little after 10am SGT to talk about trump’s speech, the war and macro/market risks and what it means for Asia and the globe. As befits the China Connection, we will likely talk Chinese perspective and response including on diplomacy

Support packages from GCC governments are starting to come in. Following CB liquidity support from several countries, Dubai rolls out a package which is mostly revenue/tax deferrals for affected sectors. not new demand Could offset a little but holding fire www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/202...

The @EBRD is first IFI to come out with a meaningful econ update trying to map impact of the war and risk scenarios. This is a hard time to forecast ofc but key time to map exposures and scenarios. www.ebrd.com/home/news-an...

Scott Bessent at odd long Trump presser: Starting to see more movement out of the gulf region, and we expect to see more. Is he taking credit for new Iran managed maritime pathways? Or at least their semblance?

I will be joining @joumanna.bsky.social on Bloomberg Horizons Middle East and Africa shortly to talk about energy markets and other supply shocks beyond in the context of the war threats.

Good piece from @ACGeoEcon on the importance of swift nimble forecasting to assess new macro scenarios and vulnerabilities stemming from the war and supply chain and financial stresses. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...

Highlights the sort of contingency planning for airlines. Planning on higher for longer

US license on selling Iranian oil at sea is out- UST seems to be hoping volumes are great enough to bring price down and that other sanctions + export controls stop Iran from actually accessing funds (optimistic)All but cuba, dprk +crimea can participate ofac.treasury.gov/media/935376...

I have been wondering what/when USG via OFAC might try to redirect Iranian oil barrels away from Chinese teapots and chinese SPR. The challenge is I cant imagine USG is as comfy with revenues going to Iran’s govt as with Russia. Every volume helps sure but not sure how this fits

Ofac extended the GLs governing sale of Venezuelan oil to allow sale of fertilizer precursors. All other terms same, money owed to PDVSA goes in restricted account, US adversaries not allowed to benefit, but clearly about trying to incent fertilizer ofac.treasury.gov/media/935196...

USG unsurprisingly issuing another Exemption to allow sales of Russian oil. This one allows any buyers not just India but only those loaded as of today. Markets will assume that they will continue with such measures as long as Hormuz shut despite the limit ofac.treasury.gov/media/935191...

A few thoughts on state of the oil markets, why benchmarks are not pricing risk being felt in parts of world and other downstream effects open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

I hope you can join us for an amazing Webinar on Thursday March 19 at 11 am EST on spillovers from the Iran war into the Global South featuring @reziemba.bsky.social, Greg Priddy, and me, moderated by @globalsarang.bsky.social. Registration and other details here. quincyinst.org/events/how-b...

Permanent sanctions exemption on Rosneft Germany shouldnt be seen as sign of broad sanctions relief. The entity is basically managed by Germany and doesnt use Russian oil, a reflection of implicit nationalization. That said other non-enforcement possible ofac.treasury.gov/media/935096...

Took a brief break from writing about Iran and talking to investors to visit the copper-clad and Rio Tinto supported Utah museum of natural history in SLC. Lots of energy (renewable mostly) and mining content as well as fascinating physical and social history

A few imp appointments announced by WH today incl international affairs at DoE, US rep to IAEA (ambassador to Austria), also rep to ASEAN). Filling open amb posts key always esp in crisis. need senate confirmation which has been stalled for many posts www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

There are new sanctions on a few Russian entities today - but relating to cyber insecurity and theft of Cyber tools. Cyber sanctions are vast majority of sanctions imposed on Russian entities in Trump admin and have been an area of coordination, content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...

Lindsey Graham doubling down on secondary tariffs and his long-delayed bill on Russia. His frame that tariffs on India led to its decline in imports of Russian oil is at least incomplete. At minimum sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil were critical and EU product changes helped x.com/lindseygraha...

Sanctions divergence on Russia on full display today on the Anniversary of the full scale invasion- UK out w some powerful measures more impactful on insurance, but EU held off on new measures due to lack of consensus and US uninterested in new measures. www.gov.uk/government/p...

I wrote up a few questions about the tariff path head open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

EO imposing global tariff via section 122 of 1974 trade act maintains many most of the key exemptions- energy, critical minerals, fertilizer, most electronics, several food products, and autos (so not stackable on top the 232s) www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Indonesia-US trade deal out finally -includes many similar aspects to recent trade deals including economic security clauses and pledges to buy US energy, planes and ags. More surprising is US agreement to drop some textile tariffs to 0. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

Indonesia’s participation in the Board of Peace and agreement to send military to Gaza seems to have jolted improvement in bilateral ties even though trade agreement has been stalled. Statement on new golden age for bilateral ties is super short details. www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

A few thoughts on energy and EM global investment from the sidelines of IE week and other London meetings open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

Al-monitor on Qatari PM’s visit to Caracas - would imagine they are among those interested in investment tho more in non-energy sector, arguably less an interest in mediating between Ven and US govts. But they may have an interest in NG viability. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Some EU leaders now suggesting formal G7 agreement not needed for the maritime services ban. We hadnt thought formal US approval necessary as US was not enforcing or doing much on price cap. USG generally against the price cap, but hard to see them enforcing a ban www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

So, no metal tariff relief imminent or at least not yet? USG pulling back on reports that cuts to steel or aluminum tariffs coming, or trying to frame as small adjustments. These tariffs help steel/aluminum production but raise downstream costs. www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Good summary @yesar on ongoing discussions about Lukoil divestments in iraq. Challenge remains around compensation. USG doesnt any deal that sends cash to Russia and Lukoil wary of exiting w/out compensation. Will goal of having assets in US hands trump? www.mees.com/2026/2/13/ge...

USG wrote about what they think they are doing here. Reinforces fact that US goods and services and naptha prioritized but global partners can participate as long as contracts set under US law. Relative lattitude for IOCs already present… links-2.govdelivery.com/CL0/https:%2...

I wrote up a little of what I think todays venezuela GLs mean substack.com/profile/2529...

OFAC is currently a Venezuela general license issuing machine, churning out many general licenses in the last week or so, to address loopholes that stopped purchases + investment. Latest allow for contracts for some work needed to explore O&G exploration/prod inv ofac.treasury.gov/media/935011...

Will 2026+ be a big year for global tanker fleet turnover including scrappage @EnergySPG freight folks seem to think so, assuming a lot more scrappage this year and escalating ahead. A lot of new vessels being delivered but will a sanctions-related workaround follow?

Supplemental secondary tariffs on India for purchases of fuel from Russia are being lifted by US… tho secondary tariffs related to Iran are back in play (tho hard to see tariffs on China being imposed) www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

New US sanctions on Iranian energy networks following inconclusive talks today. 14 tankers designated plus many intermediaries including a few Chinese ones (first set of Chinese designations this year) plus some turkish entities, as well as usual emirati. ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...

Treasury requesting public comment by 18 Mar on CFIUS pilot program to pre-qualify investors (Known Investor program) which was announced last year. Not scrapped but seemingly little process so far. This has been big issue from GCC SWFs Et al content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...

As we unpack some of the details of the of yesterdays mineral ministerial, who wasnt there is as interesting as who was. Notable non participants are Chile, Indonesia and South Africa, latter of which was likely not invited but all are important mineral producers.

US signed CM action plans with Eu (plus Japan) and also with Mexico. These plans include intention to create a trade zone for critical minerals and perhaps coordinated external tariffs, but details sparse including on which minerals. Others still waiting on details like Canada.

ADNOC turning to RMB issuance is a sign of a few trends 1) cheapest financing with low Chinese rates, tho RMB valuation edging up 2) increasing GCC turn to China/Asia for capital 3) desire for more cash for investment 4) and may drive some FX matching www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Next general license related to Venezuela allows import of diluents- again as long as doesnt involve iran, Russia, cuba, dprk of associated JVs or the use of crypto, digital assets. One of several factors to modestly reduce production ofac.treasury.gov/media/934891...

New GL allowing more Ven oil transactions is out. Allows more transactions as long as on commercial terms, avoids digital assets or entities involving Russia, Iran, Cuba and some Chinese. Net result will be less reliance on trading cos and less backlog ofac.treasury.gov/media/934886...

Lukoil announcing it agreed to sell most of its foreign assets to Carlyle one of the leading bidders. Still seems far from a done deal given USG approvals needed which likely mean no money changes hands. Surprised Lukoil assets trading up. finance.yahoo.com/news/russias...

More US sanctions on Iran’s energy trade including 9 vessels and associated shell companies operating them (in Oman, India, Marshall Islands and yes UAE). Seems more like maintenance sanctions to keep pressure on not an escalation. Nk chinese corps content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...

Exploring the new national museum in Abu Dhabi, which among other things highlights resources in the Emirate, and does highlight the different oil products produced, from naptha on to heavier residues. Also minerals and extensive national narrative deployment.

I wrote up some thoughts and many questions about Canada-China trade and how it might affect trade and economic relations. Details will matter in this balancing Act that Carney is attempting open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

Predictably China hawks in Congress are against Canada’s select opening to China, and I do see plenty of risks in it, tho its not clear USG was actually interested in making North American auto industry strong just that of US with death of 1000 cuts for Canadian industry