USG giving more time (dec 13) for Lukoil sales transactions and giving a green light to latest European nationalization of Russian owned refinery (this time in Bulgaria). Differentiating between Rosneft and Lukoil. Nov 21 still key for oil trade ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...

I think a number of countries might have this concern about some of their “agreements” with the US in a range of domains “The Saudis were disappointed that many were "left on paper" without much follow-up, a source with knowledge said.” www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

Lots of cabinet level US saudi meetings this week ahead of next weeks Trump MBS sit down- both econ, mil etc. Increases chance of deliverables even if aspirational. Some timing linked to Syria visit and likely desire of regional actors (saudi arabia, turkiye etc to be present

Useful USG list on which sanctions+ export controls have been eased on Syria including export controls on most software, and parts limited to infra. Many moves help trade, but sanctions supension and SST still a concern. No discussion of other banking qs x.com/reziemba/sta...

Tariff rebate discussions are back, as President Trump wants to revive his and their political capital. So problematic- tariffs (paid by Americans) will fund a dividend to other Americans that he chooses. Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things

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Reported US exemption for Hungarian purchases of Russian oil in context of a set of bilateral coordinations including making Hungary center of eastern Europe SMR push. Also includes switch in nuclear fuel to Westinghouse from Russia. www.state.gov/releases/off...

Strong words from the Treasury dept putting kibosh on the lukoil sale to Gunvor. But not clear what they think should happen or any guidance about the potential stranded assets outside Russia. they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc

Interesting reuters- reliance is looking to re-sell oil snapped up from MENA suppliers as part of hedging and uncertainty around sanctions exposure Dynamics like this are an example of the mixed signals in the coming weeks to assess sanctions impact www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Fun bingo card for tariff hearing. And with my interests extending into wine and alcohol trade the wine as national emergency question is definitely of interest.

Ieepa hearing: Odd that USG lawyers are now saying that revenues raised are “incidental” when other USG docs highlighlighted how loss of tariff revenue would sink US economy - tbc I don’t buy that either. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

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Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers) Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share, Power costs to be key politiical issue

Several references to energy (costs) in m gubernatorial victory speeches. Spanberger noting need to grow energy capacity to reduce costs (va is home to many data centers) Sherill- talking price freeze and large companies paying share, Power costs to be key politiical issue

Latest #thought-provoking read is Ecocide in Ukraine, which takes the lens of environmental impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine by looking at its impact on land, water air and energy (espeically nuclear) including current and future resources. An important facet of ongoing conflict and revival

I imagine quite a number of other foreign companies who exited Russia JVs will also decide not to excercise their right of return. Their home governments would probably block it plus who knows what additional costs they would be charged.

All signs suggest that Russian fuel exports are falling as buyers assess sanctions risk, framing a 190k drop on a level of over 3.5mbd may overstate the word “plunge”? This kind of weekly move not unprecedented esp with other supplies up. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

USG seems to have expanded its sanctions relief on Belarusian airlines, by removing Belavia from SDN list + issuing new general license for select planes even if used for lukashenka travel. Maybe related to hostage swaps but has potential to be used more broadly. ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...

More detail on the Microsoft AI investments in UAE including its partnerships with G42 and work with ADNOC, including some details about chip licenses for top level chips employment and joint technology development blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issue... www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...

More applications to CPTPP this time including Philippines and UAE, later of which has been actively signing CEPAs to reduce non-tariff barriers, as well as negotiating other FTAs more slowly as part of the GCC. asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...

Some thoughts from me about the US china trade truce open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

Details on what the US thinks they and Chinese govt agreed to in a new fact sheet. - China suspending global implementation of new export controls not just for US. General licenses (new policy for China?) for US supply chains on older export controls. US export control adj (50% rule) also global

Us-china trade truce seems to involve - 10% cut in US “fentanyl” tariffs. Any cut from China? (Key for energy) - 1 year delay in implement of export controls (rare earths on Chinese side, affiliates rule on US) - commodity purchases (mostly grain) - maybe delays on shipping fees

Looks like a good event

USG confirms a new general license for Rosneft deutschland + marketing arm, allowing German assets effectively nationalized by Ger govt to continue. Notably not a broad license for all foreign assets associated. divestment challenged by sanctions ofac.treasury.gov/media/934726...

Energy relevant stuff on the US-South Korea discussions- Koreans will buy more LNG via LT contracts via global LNG players. No promises on alaska yet but Lt contracts from global portfolios site agnostic. Also investment to boost uranium enrichment and grid inv. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

US pledging to coordinate AI exports with both japan and south korea, and presumably also others. Mostly about export control coordination and standards. There’s a lot of bilateral coordination being pledged here- is there bandwidth? Or are minilaterals ahead? www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...

Some thoughts on the raft of economic documents released on Trump’s Asia tour Tariffs: generally same purchase agreements (energy incl coal, planes) inv plans (differ by country, decentralized) Big mineral focus but tough implementation Lots of Econ security open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

US-japan fact sheet details very specific set of investments Japanese companies plan to make including in nuclear (SMRs), grid infrastructure and power capacity, also energy storage. Also smaller inv in port upgrades and a LIP processing plant www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

bullet in US-jpn fact sheet “Japan will pursue new sanctions frameworks to target vessels linked to shadow fleets and disrupt shadow fleet activity in close coordination with the United States and G7 partners.” 🤔 is US back on shadow fleet enforcement? www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

Good bloomberg report on the Investment piece of the US-korea deal- and how it is exacerbating capital flows Notable how different all of the investment agreements seem to be across different US partners. Another example of decentralized US sov wealth? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Indeed. Lots of frameworks, MOUs, “deals” and other structures for trade/investment agreements.

There’s a lot to unpack in the trade/investment frameworks signed with Malaysia. Plenty of economic security components that could be model for others. Plus a critical mineral one aiming to weaken Chinese extraterritorial application of export controls www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

I seem to have missed that this is Energy dominance month according to the WH www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Clearly just cutting off talks with Canada not enough… tariffs going up on the Canadian items US pays tariffs on ~5% of bilateral trade assuming USMCA exemption remains in effect. Painful for those remaining sectors of course. But another example where watching exemptions matters!

OFAC sanctioned Colombia President Gustavo Petro +his family in the latest increase in pressure on Colombia over drug issues. No other parts of government, energy aparatus or banks (yet). But US definitely willing to use sanctions on perceived cartel links content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...

Joining access middle east @CNBC to chat about the sanctions, energy and dynamics in some EM including Turkey.

VIDEO – Book Launch: A Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and Asia with Justin Alexander, Ehab Elsonbaty, @reziemba.bsky.social, and Robert Mogielnicki. agsi.org/events/book-...

A watchlist of catalysts I’m watching to assess the new US sanctions on Russia and new/ongoing sanctions from others. open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

US Sanctions Russia’s big energy majors reportedly, following UK last week and (maybe EU tmw?). This is big deal as first notable sanction on russian energy in Tadmin. Illicit infra+ intermediaries will blunt Details scarce including timing and exemptions if any. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Join us tomorrow in DC

UK stepping up Russia energy sanctions -adding Rosneft +Lukoil, plus Nayara refinery (Subsidiary of Rosneft, already on EU list) +Chinese port entities including facility accepting Arctic LNG 2 cargo. Will add frictions, but limited w/out US coord assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68ef66...

Join us next week in DC for a chat on GCC and Asian sovereign funds. www.eventbrite.com/e/a-politica...

The new IMF growth forecasts are generally upgrades for this year +next despite continuing deceleration. Most major (G20) countries upgraded for the year almost over except Canada and Russia, with notable upgrades for China, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria substack.com/@reziemba/no...

Useful report @EmiratesNBD_AE on UAE data center dev +energy demand. As with other AI hubs power needs are great, amplified by cooling costs for UAE, still would likely “only” be 6% of local power demand. Pipeline of 46b in data center inv plus new power www.emiratesnbdresearch.com//en/articles...

The Gulf's #SWFs are laying the groundwork to ramp up their investment in Asia. Poaching top CFOs, opening offices in India and China, and striking multi-billion dollar MOUs with the region's state-backed investors. Insights from @reziemba.bsky.social and others on.ft.com/4pRvzMF

Its notable the administration is now looking for deals with industries/companies. Perhaps they think its easier than trade deals and they have more direct leverage? Tho other policies including tariffs may complicate. Either way expect more such swaps www.reuters.com/business/hea...

China adjusting maritime regulations in ways that could involve mirroring of soon to be implemented US port fees. While US does not build many vessels, more being being flagged in US or non-China to mitigate fees. More fragmentation of shipping ahead? www.freightwaves.com/news/china-c...

New US sanctions on Iran, the first post snapback, focuses on ballistic missile program and other military procurement but does include actors based in Germany and Portugal and several in China. No broad economy or oil market links evident. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

USG -via DOE takes stake in vancouver listed Lithium Americas to support its Thacker Pass Lithium project in Nevada (plus taking direct stake in TP project). Shows USG preference for equity vs debt/loan exposure, and conversion of past/new loans. t.co/LiUbbzB3ok