The G7 leaders have agreed to a statement on recent developments between Israel and Iran:

‼️Major Mideast Escalation as Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities,takes out 2 senior Iranian commanders (head of IRGC & chief of staff of armed forces),warns more strikes will come Iran vows crushing response Oil was +10% now +7% as Iran says oil infra damage is limited

Who needs White Lotus when there’s Musk POTUS

how it started vs. how it’s going

Betting against S&P 500 futures every time Trump escalated trade rhetoric and buying them five days later would have yielded 12% since the beginning of February- Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott

Came with a chainsaw , left with a black eye - Elon Musk’s political career

I think he said thank you

Good morning. Back for Day 2 in Riyadh! On today’s agenda 10am local : GCC leaders family photo 10.15am: GCC plenary session . MBS opens with remarks then Trump speaks again

Notably, Trump didn't demand Syria normalize with Israel to get out from under sanctions. That would be an impossible task at the moment, but it was something that might have been expected, given how Trump managed the lifting of Sudanese sanctions in 2020 during the Abraham Accords.

Everyone thought this trip was going to be mainly a dealmaking trip Trump just delivered a hugely significant geopolitical speech that has very clearly outlined this administration’s goals and hopes in the region. “The birth of a new Mideast”

US secured $600bn in commitments from Saudi Arabia * this is the same figure MBS and Trump spoke about in January after their phone call

Trump wants a trillion-dollar show of friendship from Saudi Arabia — but MBS’s massive spending spree at home makes that difficult www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Historic greeting Crown Prince MBS and President Trump’s handshake in Riyadh No awkward fist bumps today

Bessent in Riyadh,fresh from Geneva “new mechanism with China will avoid new escalation. We have a very good framework. Both sides agreed we don’t want generalized decoupling between the 2 largest econs in the world. US will decouple in strategic industries” #SaudiUSForum2025

Saudi US Business forum today 850AM: Scott Bessent, Saudi FinMin 910AM: Larry Fink 950AM: David Sacks on crypto 1050AM: Howard Lutnick 240PM: Nvidia's Jensen Huang 340PM: Saudi Energy Min ABS 505PM: LEADERSHIP ADDRESS FROM MBS & TRUMP 540PM: ELON MUSK 600PM: Andy Jassy

How is it only Monday? Today’s news - US China major trade breakthrough - India Pakistan truce - Zelenskyy in Turkey on Thursday for truce talks. Will Putin join? - Trump gets offered a jet as a gift / loan by Qatari royal family - Trump signs Exec Order to lower pharma prices

A big win for Trump - also note this was negotiated directly with Hamas officials sidelining Israeli gov Hamas says it released Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander - www.reuters.com/world/middle...

US odds of a recession have dropped from 65% to 44% (and will likely edge even lower after today's US China news). Data is with 24h lag Source: Polymarket

BREAKING The US is cutting levies on Chinese goods to 30% from 145% for 90 days. China is lowering its levies on US goods to 10% from 125% for the same time period.

Good morning ! صباح الخير! ‎Live in Riyadh today and tracking Trump’s visit through the GCC all week ‎Today talking through what’s on the agenda : diplomacy, deals and a controversial (potential) Qatari Boeing gift

I asked the Saudi taxi driver what he thinks of President Trump’s visit this week He responded : هذا يبغى فلوس Meaning : this guy wants money 🫠🫠

A post on Saudi’s finances below www.linkedin.com/posts/jouman...

“A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner.“ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Life in Gaza two-and-a-half months into an Israeli blockade: people are killing horses, butchering wild rabbits, boiling weeds and scouring the shore for turtles to get something to eat. Livestock are already dead and most of Gaza's farmland is barren. www.ft.com/content/48dc...

Trump’s Scant UK Deal Shows Limits of Frenzied Trade Strategy "As the president began revealing specifics of the deal,it became clear it fell short of the full and comprehensive agreement he had promised,or the US-UK free-trade pact he pursued during his first term" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

UK-US deal- So its a deal to have a deal. Seems to include -streamlining US goods in UK customs - maximum levels (quotas for duty free access) for some items subject to sectoral tariffs. -agreement to keep talking Both countries looking to announce a deal. Terms useful as cues for others

filling time on air until the new pope is announced is known as "pontiffication"

Tough to keep track but in the past 12h, Trump has: - teased big trade deal announcement at 10am ET (NYT saying it's UK) - said he wouldn't consider lowering145% tariff on China to start trade talks - On Gaza "we'll know something in the next 24h" - Houthis "we had good outcome"

China: PBOC cut the policy rate by 10bps and RRR by 50bps BBG Economics: "Using our in-house model SHOK, we estimate the cuts to the policy rate and RRR could lift GDP growth by as much as 0.8-1 percentage point over the four quarters through 1Q26." "This is a powerful signal"

Carney has definitely gone for the flattery approach (that tends to work!)

Trump teases a VERY VERY BIG ANNOUNCEMENT he will make towards end of this week (Into and before his Mideast trip)

Today was Friedrich Merz’s worst and best day ever

Woaaaah Merz fails to be elected chancellor by German parliament - www.reuters.com/world/europe...

I’m not adding anything novel to the discussion here but while there have been plenty of extremely successful investors in the US over the past few decades, Buffett’s the only one who I’d characterize as adding something positive to the American character/culture and he deserves his legacy.

A Houthi missile evaded Israel air defense & struck near its main airport on Sunday Israel says a technical issue caused the failure to intercept the missile Weeks of US airstrikes in Yemen have failed to stop Houthi missiles on Israel www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Stat du jour: Taiwan has a huge pile of overseas assets amounting to $1.7tn, much of it in the form of US bonds — including Treasuries and corporate debt — held by its life insurers. (FT)

Now Trump the first US President in history to also lose an Australian election

OPEC+ agreed to boost oil production further in June, according to delegates, potentially deepening the slump in crude prices. Key nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on to add 411,000 barrels a day next month, the delegates said www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Small-value packages shipped to the US from China will no longer be exempted from tariffs starting Friday, when President Donald Trump’s move against an exception he called a “big scam” takes effect. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Interesting that despite stabilization in risky assets, prediction odds of a US recession keep rising Polymarket odds of recession in 2025: 66%

The US is weighing a potential easing of restrictions on Nvidia sales to the United Arab Emirates, according to people familiar with the matter, who said President Trump could announce the start of work on a bilateral chip deal during his upcoming trip to the Gulf www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

True story My phone …

Why is oil plummeting? - unhelpful global demand signals - reports that OPEC+ may once again look to increase production / add extra barrels at the upcoming May 5 meeting Watch convo with Anthony Di Paola today www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe3O...

Happening at 11.15am Dubai Charting a Path through the Haze: How will Middle East region respond to global uncertainties & lower oil prices? Moderating the IMF REO panel with MECA head Jihad Azour, RBC's Helima Croft, Majid Al Futtaim CEO & TarikYousef Watch here: www.youtube.com/live/P88ytVh...

Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro called the GDP report “the best negative print I have ever seen in my life” in an interview Wednesday with CNBC

Dovish BOJ No hike as expected but change in language "Risks to prices are also skewed to the downside for fiscal 2025 and 2026." Last report had risks to upside! 2027 core CPI forecast is 1.9%, below 2% target

GM. Volvo. Snap. UPS. Companies pulling earnings guidance leads Page One. @wsj.com

Great piece from Javier Blas on what happened in Spain & how to remedy: essentially how to integrate renewables into the grids in a way that is conducive to stability Spanish Blackout Shouldn't Trigger a Green Retreat - Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Global stocks set to end the month in the green (after all that)

First look at China factory activity since tariffs: Worst contraction since December 2023. Offical manufacturing PMI came in at 49 vs 50.5 in March Cargo shipments down 60% according to one estimate Many banks have growth forecasts of 4% or lower for this year