أهم 5 أحداث هذا العام: الحرب التجارية لم تسقط العالم • الرسوم الأميركية قفزت من 2% إلى 14% • توقعات النمو العالمي تراجعت مع فرض الرسوم، ثم عادت إلى مستوياتها السابقة • الأسباب: الاستيراد المبكر، الالتفاف عبر تحويل التجارة، استثمارات الذكاء الاصطناعي غطت تباطؤ قطاعات أخرى 1/5

5 things that happened this year: Tariffs didn’t sink the world • US tariffs jumped from just over 2% to around 14% • Global growth forecasts fell when tariffs hit, then climbed back to pre-tariff levels • Why muted impact? Front-loading, trade diversion, AI investments 1/5

In July, the IMF delayed its review of Egypt's program & the disbursement of a loan tranche Today, the fund has a preliminary deal with Cairo What changed? • Egypt raised fuel prices • It struck a $3.5 billion land deal with Qatar www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The US is intensifying a blockade on Venezuela oil exports The aim: squeeze revenues, maybe force regime change Could Washington try the same playbook on Iran? Harder target: • Farther away • Larger population • Produces more oil www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The Dubai tradition of posting pictures whenever it rains

Why a renewed Iran-Israel war is possible 👇 Head of Mossad: - “Iran has not abandoned its ambition to destroy the State of Israel” - “The idea of continuing to develop a nuclear bomb still beats in their hearts” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Netanyahu approved the gas deal with Egypt • Egypt will buy Israeli gas from 2026 to 2040 • Deal is worth $35 billion • Largest in Israel's history www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Will the Red Sea fully reopen in 2026? Shipping companies are testing the waters — by sending single ships Detours around Africa: • add 10 days of sailing time • tie up 6% of global fleet capacity www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

War shut the Red Sea; a truce hasn't reopened it Shipping traffic is still about half below pre-war levels The economic pain isn’t global, but regional: countries like Egypt are paying the price Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

"House Democrats have released a tranche of new photos from the estate of the late Jeffrey Epstein that include President Donald Trump, former President Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Steve Bannon and Larry Summers" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil ships in Venezuela Oil price? Still below $60 Why? Maths beats politics: • Venezuela exports at risk: ~300k barrels per day • IEA forecast of supply glut next year: ~4 million barrels per day www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The UN "has cut food rations for people in Gaza by half, citing Israeli restrictions that continue to impact the organization’s humanitarian efforts" The “reduced package covers half of the minimum caloric needs per family for the remainder of the month” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"McKinsey has also been hampered by moves in Saudi Arabia, where the government is paring its payments to consulting firms .. In the 10 years up to 2024, McKinsey was earning at least $500 million in fees annually from the country" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Oil has been in a multi-year slide Average prices: 2022: $99 2023: $82 2024: $80 Now? Below $60

5 things that happened this week: The IEA, a leading forecaster, still sees record oil oversupply next year Trafigura, a top trader, goes further, warning of a potential “super glut” The chart: oil has headed downwards this year, now sits at $61 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US-Venezuela tensions: How much oil is at risk? This article says: about 300,000 barrels a day Why? About 30% of Venezuela’s exports move on sanctioned ships news.bloomberglaw.com/internationa...

$24bn of Gulf money for Warner Bros isn’t the unusual part of the story Splitting that across 3 sovereign wealth funds is routine It's the coalition: Saudi, Qatar, the UAE, the Ellison family — aligned in one bid despite different geopolitical interests www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela The action may make it much harder for Venezuela to export its crude Venezuela produces about 1 million barrels of oil per day www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A full economic recovery in Israel rests on two assumptions: (1) the war is over; (2) the conflict hasn’t caused lasting damage Higher defense spending challenges (2) Defense in 2026 budget = $35 bn — the largest item, up 72% from 2023 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Egypt inflation follows a 3-stage script: 1. The spike: 30%+ during the crisis — that has passed 2. The comedown: 10–15% as the pound stabilises — that's the current phase 3. The promise: single digits by late 2026 — that's the central bank's target www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iraq oil sector: Russia out, US in? "The US government is backing Iraq’s plan to transfer Lukoil PJSC’s stake in a giant oil field to an American company, days before a sanctions waiver on the Russian firm is set to expire" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Saudi Arabia has taken further steps to relax rules around the sale of alcohol by allowing non-Muslim foreign residents with monthly earnings of 50,000 riyals ($13,300) or more to make purchases" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"It’s uncommon for a city to have even one sovereign wealth fund; the UAE’s capital has three" This piece is a nice overview of how and where Abu Dhabi invests its wealth www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Look forward to moderating a panel on "The power and potential of the Global South" Happening later today, at Abu Dhabi Finance Week www.adfw.com/agenda/filte...

Will the Red Sea finally calm down? • Houthis signalled they'd halt attacks if the Gaza truce holds • Maersk says conditions for eventual return are improving A full shipping resumption could restore $9 billion in lost Suez Canal revenue for Egypt www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A full economic recovery in Israel hinges on two assumptions: (1) the war is over; (2) the conflict hasn’t caused lasting damage Recent strikes on Gaza and Lebanon cast doubt on (1) Plunging foreign direct investment is one of several challenges to (2) Latest on the Bloomberg terminal

"After a visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017 .. Trump cited $350 billion in economic deals, including .. “an immediate $110 billion investment.” Official US statistics show direct investment from Saudi Arabia had risen by only about $5 billion by .. 2024" www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Israel: "More than 80,000 of the country's 10 million citizens newly moved abroad in 2024, and similar numbers are expected this year" "workers in Israel's cutting-edge technology sector .. are strongly represented among the émigrés" www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

"Work has started on new alcohol stores in two of Saudi Arabia’s main cities to serve some non-Muslim customers .. The kingdom is building two liquor shops in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah and Dammam in the east" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Saudi Arabia appears to have widened access to alcohol, allowing non-Muslims holding a special residency status to purchase alcoholic drinks from a Riyadh store previously reserved for foreign diplomats" www.semafor.com/article/11/2...

Iraq oil sector: Russia out, US in? "Exxon and its US rival Chevron are interested in Lukoil’s international assets, including the major oil field in southern Iraqi which accounts for about 10% of the country’s production" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Ceasefire: Israel on Sunday struck Lebanon’s capital for the first time since June: apnews.com/article/isra... Israel launches strikes in Gaza: apnews.com/article/gaza...

"Al-Majd was linked to .. [a] company established by Tomer Janar Lind, a dual Israeli-Estonian national .. The group had strong enough connections with the Israeli state .. where ministers have championed the notion of emptying Gaza’s population" www.ft.com/content/f347...

Oil: "If engineers are successful, it would turn shale from a sprinter into a marathon runner. The impact won’t be another gusher, but a steady flow of barrels far longer into the future than the industry anticipated" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

"People in Gaza began seeing ads for Al-Majd early this year promising a route to safe evacuation .. Al-Majd .. is connected to the Voluntary Migration Administration, an office inside Israel's Defense Ministry that helps Palestinians leave Gaza" www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Saudi: "While PIF says it holds nearly $1 trillion in assets, a huge portion of its portfolio is tied up in hard-to-sell assets for which no public valuations are available" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b...

"Former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers will immediately leave his role as an instructor at Harvard while the University investigates his ties to child sex trafficker Jeffrey E. Epstein" www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Saudi raised its US pledge from $600 billion to $1 trillion Over decades, that cash might flow — but during Trump’s term? Unlikely Why: • Trade flows are too small • Riyadh is now a net borrower from the world • Shifting all existing assets to the US is unrealistic

An airstrike by Israel killed at least 13 people at the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump: Thank you because you've agreed to invest $600 bn into the United States MBS: We're going to increase that 600 bn to almost $1 trillion of foreign investment Trump: You're saying to me now that the 600 bn will be 1 trillion? MBS: Definitely www.youtube.com/watch?v=nols...

What did MBS get from Trump? Defense: www.bloomberg.com/news/article... F-35s: www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Nuclear: www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Chips: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Former Harvard President Larry Summers said he plans to step back from his public commitments after his correspondence with the late disgraced sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was made public by US lawmakers" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"South Africa is investigating a flight that brought Palestinians to Johannesburg last week, describing it as suspicious and part of a wider effort to “cleanse” them" Israel "has a department dedicated to encouraging “volunteer emigration” from Gaza" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

MBS meeting with Trump today: all security, no oil Prices are similar to their past meetings in May & 2018, when crude barely came up It mattered when MBS met Biden in 2022 — oil was near $100 & Washington was begging for barrels Latest by Dina Esfandiary & me on the Bloomberg terminal

Trump is expected to reach an agreement with MBS that would allow Saudi to buy F-35 jets "One sticking point is that Israel is the only state in the Middle East that has the fighter jets and is eager to protect that monopoly" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

What could prevent a massive oil glut in 2026? • Stronger-than-expected demand • Non-OPEC producers pushed out • OPEC+ cutting supply How likely are OPEC+ cuts? Less than a third of oil traders surveyed by Bloomberg think that'll happen www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The IEA expects oil supplies could exceed demand by 4 million barrels a day next year — a record glut But the IEA also thinks that the gap is so big, it's unlikely to happen What gives? • Lower prices boost consumption • Cheaper oil curbs supply www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

ما هي الدروس المستفادة من صفقة (علم الروم) بين قطر ومصر؟ 1. الدعم الخليجي تحول من ودائع إلى استثمارات، خصوصا في العقار 2. مصر تجاوزت أزمة 2022-2024 3. الدعم الخارجي يشتري لمصر الوقت، لكنه لن يمنع أزمة في العقد القادم 4. مصر تكتشف مصدر جديد للريع: الأرض لنأخذهم بالترتيب 1/5

5 things that happened this week: OPEC flipped its view on the oil market in the 3rd quarter It once saw supply shortages — now says there was a surplus Yet prices barely budged, holding near $67 that quarter 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

MBS will meet Trump next week in Washington What could be on the agenda? • US-Saudi defense pact • F-35 fighter jets • Chips • Nuclear technology • Normalisation with Israel Oil? Not so much: OPEC+ has been raising production since May www.bloomberg.com/news/article...