5 things that happened this week: Iran signals • Trump said regime change would be the best thing for Iran • The US is sending a 2nd aircraft carrier to the region • Earlier, Trump said he preferred negotiations to strikes after meeting Netanyahu 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Epstein files fallout: DP World names a new CEO and chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem held both positions www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"A British government ban on Palestine Action under anti-terror laws was unlawful, London judges ruled .. The High Court moved to quash the UK ban on Friday, declaring it “disproportionate” .. an embarrassing reversal for .. Keir Starmer’s government" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Israel has accused 2 suspects of using classified information to bet on Polymarket An account on Polymarket correctly predicted several events during the war between Israel and Iran in June The bets paid out about $150,000 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The US: Trump sees negotiations with Iran stretching for as long as a month www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Also the US: The Pentagon is sending its largest and most advanced aircraft carrier to the Middle East www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

2025 Arab Opinion Index: 87% oppose normalization with Israel, 80% believe Palestine is a collective Arab issue, 87% say Israel’s war on Gaza and Lebanon impacts them personally, 76% rate US policy as bad (seems low). Lots more in this new report: arabcenterdc.org/wp-content/u...

How much of today’s oil price reflects fears of war with Iran? Our estimate: about $4 per barrel of geopolitical risk premium Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

"How Jeffrey Epstein — and an NYC Dentist — Got His Girlfriend Into Columbia .. The exchange is one of the clearest indications that Epstein dangled the promise of paying tuition bills in return for connections to women" www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

"The Pentagon has told a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare to deploy to the Middle East as the US military readies for a potential attack on Iran" www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

After meeting Netanyahu, Trump says he prefers negotiations to strikes on Iran for now www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Does Netanyahu’s US visit raise the odds of war with Iran? • 7th Trump-Netanyahu meeting in a year • Trump is considering sending a 2nd aircraft carrier to the Mideast • Hawkish statements from Israel, some officials even hinting at unilateral strikes www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

For over 2 years, the Middle East has been at war, while oil markets have barely flinched Will this decoupling between geopolitics & oil survive a war with Iran? Dina Esfandiary & I examine the risks in this report – available online & on the Bloomberg terminal www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The ceasefire in Gaza began on 9 October 2025 Since then, Israel has killed 581 people That's nearly 5 Palestinians per day apnews.com/article/gaza...

Egypt is on a positive autopilot: • Inflation fell from 38% in late 2023 to 11.9% in January • The pound is strengthening • Reserves are rising What's helping? • A recent exit from crisis • International support • Falling global interest rates www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I'll take part in a webinar on the economics of Iraq Hosted by Atlantic Council Middle East Programs, this Thursday at 10am ET Interested? Register here 👇 www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/iraqs-...

China is telling banks to limit their purchases of US debt Possible causes: • Concentration risk • China-US competition • Less predictable US policy • Concerns about US debt The question is: if they don't buy Treasuries, what would they buy? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

People caught in the Epstein files fallout so far: • Prince Andrew • Peter Mandelson • Larry Summers Next? "One aide to a cabinet minister said it was 50-50 whether [UK prime minister Keir] Starmer would last the week" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Netanyahu will meet Trump on Wednesday in Washington That would be their 7th meeting since Trump's inauguration in early 2025 www.reuters.com/world/middle...

5 things that happened this week: US-Iran mixed messages • The US & Iran held talks to de-escalate in Oman • Still, some oil tankers are speeding through the Strait of Hormuz • The US urged its citizens in Iran to leave or stockpile food & water 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Anthropic "unveiled Claude Opus 4.6, which it says can scrutinize company data, regulatory filings and market information to come up with detailed financial analyses that would normally take a person days to complete" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A “Saudi prince” called several Lebanese MPs, telling them how to vote He claimed the instructions came from the Saudi royal court The twist? He was no Saudi royal, but an impoverished auto repair worker from northern Lebanon By @malaikatapper.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/7301...

Large tankers, carrying huge amounts of oil, speeding through a narrow waterway, amid a growing presence of warships and dark-fleet vessels – sounds totally safe 👉"Tankers Speed Through Hormuz Chokepoint on US-Iran Tensions" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US strikes on Iran are likely – a lasting oil spike isn’t inevitable What follows the strikes matters: • Does Iran's system survive? • Does Tehran retaliate meaningfully or symbolically? • Does retaliation hit energy flows? On the Bloomberg terminal, with Becca Wasser & Dina Esfandiary

OPEC output fell by 230,000 barrels per day in January compared with December Venezuela accounted for about a third of the decline Oil prices rose from $61 to $71 over the month www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"In the past, the Emirates paid the salaries of some Yemeni fighters, but Saudi Arabia has now pledged to cover salary payments for all Yemeni government employees .. That is a financial commitment of more than $1 billion per year" www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/w...

US-Iran talks on Friday: • Venue: Turkey or Oman? • Participants: include regional countries or not? • Agenda: nuclear file only or other subjects? The bigger question: will the US eventually strike Iran? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Washington told Iraqi officials it would reduce the country’s access to oil-export revenues if it appointed Nouri Al-Maliki [as prime minister]" The US gave a new warning during a meeting with Iraq's central bank governor in Turkey last week www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US-Iran latest: • The US shot down an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier • Trump says Washington and Tehran are still talking • Iran wants to move Friday's talks from Turkey to Oman www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Oil fell $5 from Thursday to Monday Many attributed the fall to easing war risks with Iran Our take is different: • Weaker demand drove $4.5 of the drop • The trigger: naming Kevin Warsh as Fed chair – markets see a hawk • The war risk premium is still in oil – around $3 now

Peter Mandelson leaked government information to Jeffrey Epstein while a minister: • Emailed Epstein about the EU’s rescue fund for struggling states • Forwarded internal emails on tax policy • Tipped Epstein that Gordon Brown planned to resign www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran foreign minister "is expected to meet US Special Representative Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Istanbul on Friday" "Foreign ministers from Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the [UAE] are also expected to attend the Istanbul talks" edition.cnn.com/2026/02/03/m...

This report says Mark Savaya, US special envoy to Iraq, is no longer in the role It says US ambassador to Turkey & special envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, may be adding Iraq to his portfolio Savaya's X account hasn't been available since Thursday english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5...

Ahead of a possible Mideast war: "Iran’s supreme leader warned of a “regional war”" "Israel’s goal is to try to influence the US to pursue a broad move that would lead to the collapse of Iranian regime, Channel 12 reported without citing anyone" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The UAE president "is cancelling a state visit to Japan amid growing tensions in the Middle East over Iran" Also "Some of Japan’s biggest buyers of liquefied natural gas said they will skip a key conference in Qatar this week because of security concerns" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

5 things that happened this week: Gold swings • Gold rose above $5,500, then crashed to ~$4,700 on Friday • Trigger: Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair • Traders see Warsh as an inflation hawk & high interest rates are bad for gold 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Arab and Muslim states have cautioned Trump against an attack [on Iran], fearing it could trigger a broader conflict in the Middle East and cause Tehran to target oil and gas facilities in the Gulf" www.ft.com/content/a56f...

"The IDF has accepted the estimate of the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry that approximately 71,000 Palestinians were killed during the Israel-Gaza war, noting that the number does not include missing residents who are potentially buried under rubble" www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

UAE: "Abu Dhabi is folding its $263 billion wealth fund ADQ into [L’imad] a sovereign entity overseen by Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, [in] a significant overhaul" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Dollar slump is good for the Middle East One reason: it speeds up diversification from oil Take Saudi: • Weaker dollar → weaker Saudi riyal • That makes non-oil products cheaper abroad • More competitive pricing means higher non-oil exports Full analysis is on the Bloomberg terminal

Saudi spending pullback • Postponing the Asian Winter Games • Considering overhauls to The Line • Reviewing The Mukaab • Re-evaluating other projects www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This article has a good visualisation of the US military buildup in the Middle East It's the largest accumulation of assets since June, when Trump bombed Iranian nuclear facilities www.ft.com/content/c121...

Markets are on edge over possible US strikes on Iran Oil is near $70, up from about $60 before the escalation (white) Gold has surged to a record above $5,500 (blue)

The state of the Middle East today: • Waiting for possible US strikes on Iran • Saudi-UAE rift • Iraq prime minister selection drama • Syria's internal fighting • Gaza devastation • Coping with lower oil prices

"Trump on Tuesday suggested he could manipulate the strength of the dollar, saying “I could have it go up or go down like a yo yo”" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Saudi "is widening its search for capital, turning to some of the kingdom’s wealthiest families as the government looks to ease pressure on public finances .. [It] gathered about a dozen prominent families on the Red Sea .. to assess their appetite" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump on Iraq: "Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again .. if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success"

"The list of speakers again includes figures from .. the RN — whose founder Jean-Marie Le Pen was found guilty of Holocaust denial — and .. Sweden Democrats, which acknowledged last year a history of support for Nazi ideas within its ranks" www.ft.com/content/3eb8...

US military buildup against Iran: • The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier reached the Mideast on Monday • More assets are en route — won't all be there for another week • Trump nearly approved strikes on Iran earlier in the month www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

"Some UAE-based firms have reported problems securing Saudi business visas, the people said. It’s not clear how widespread the issue is or whether it marks a change of policy by the Saudi government" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The world is getting even more dizzying → "China ’s top general is suspected of passing secret information about the country’s nuclear weapons program to the US" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...