"Exporters .. worry about Israel becoming a pariah as images of the destruction in Gaza spark outrage globally. Some European customers are asking Israeli defense firms to keep talks about future orders under wraps" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

PwC has cut 60 partners & 1,500 staff in the Mideast There's a macro and a micro story here: Macro: Saudi spending cuts are hitting the consulting industry Micro: Saudi wealth fund has banned PwC from new advisory work www.ft.com/content/eaaf...

More than 75% of the UN member states already recognise Palestine Now: Australia, Canada & the UK have joined them Soon: France, Belgium, Portugal & Malta plan to follow www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The latest from Dina Esfandiary and me: Until 2 years ago, Iran loomed as the GCC's top threat Today, the order has likely shifted: for many Gulf states, Israel is now a bigger danger Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

one week after Israel struck Qatar, as the US stood watching: Saudi and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact, stating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a UN-commissioned report concluded www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati academic, said there was, for the first time, a “serious conversation [in the UAE] that it is time to freeze the Abraham Accords [with Israel] .. The accord is becoming a political liability, not a strategic asset”" www.ft.com/content/5ca2...

NEW: The Limits of Protections and Profit, Five Years Into the Abraham Accords Arang Keshavarzian reviews Elham Fakhro's new book on the Abraham Accords.

Mideast war boycott: • Coca Cola has lost market share in Turkey & Pakistan • Trigger: perceived links to Israel • Other companies in the crosshairs: Starbucks, McDonald's, Carrefour www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Israel strike on Doha has rattled the GCC-US "oil for security" pact Gulf options from here: 1. Diversify security ties 2. Keep the status quo 3. Try to split the US & Israel 4. Bend the knee to Israel 5. Weaponise energy Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal, with Dina Esfandiary

What’s the chance of a Gaza ceasefire before year-end? A week ago, the likelihood was close to 50% After Israel strike on Qatar, the probability has sunk to 28% polymarket.com/event/israel...

Jeffrey Epstein emails: "[A] spreadsheet attached to a 2007 email describes about $1.8 million in gifts and payments between 2003 and 2006. The document includes big-ticket items, including a $71,000 Lexus that went to Epstein’s lawyer, Alan Dershowitz" www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

In 1973, Arab oil producers embargoed countries backing Israel: US Netherlands Portugal South Africa Today • S. Africa leading a genocide case against Israel • Portugal weighing Palestine recognition • Dutch foreign minister resigned over Israel policy www.britannica.com/event/Arab-o...

‎في هذا الأسبوع فقط، هاجمت إسرائيل قطر وغزة ولبنان وسوريا واليمن، وربما حتى تونس ‎ما كلفة هذه الحرب المستمرة والمتوسعة على الاقتصاد الإسرائيلي؟ ‎وهل تكفي هذه الكلفة لإنهاء الحرب؟ 1/5 apnews.com/article/qata...

5 things that happened this week: Israeli strikes across the Mideast • Its airstrikes on Qatar targeted Hamas leaders • The leaders seem to have survived • Israel also struck Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and possibly Tunisia 1/5 apnews.com/article/isra...

"Epstein told Mandelson that an unidentified person referred to only as “mr. big” would meet with Jay Lefkowitz .. Lefkowitz’s full schedule .. that day isn't public, but years later, he confirmed that he met with Bush at the White House “that night”" www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

"Arab leaders across the Middle East are questioning the value of American security guarantees in the wake of Israel’s unprecedented assault on Qatar" By Sam Dagher www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Saudi: from global lender to borrower Over the past week alone: • The government borrowed $5.5 bn www.bloomberg.com/news/article... • The sovereign wealth fund borrowed $2 bn www.bloomberg.com/news/article... • Aramco borrowed $3 bn www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Total = $10.5 billion

"Spain banned ships and aircraft carrying weapons to Israel from calling at Spanish ports or entering its airspace .. It would not allow anyone who has participated directly in "genocide" in Gaza to enter Spain" It'll also increase aid for UNRWA www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Saudi sovereign wealth fund is prioritising domestic investments It's deploying about 20% of its capital at home Back in 2016, the goal was different: eventually invest half of the holdings abroad www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Is there too much oil, or too little? Average crude price: 2022: $99 2023: $82 2024: $80 2025: $70 so far The trend is clear: prices are falling The conclusion: glut, not shortage

"Associated Press reporting into an Israeli attack on a Gaza Strip hospital that killed 22 people, including five journalists, raises serious questions about Israel’s rationale for the strikes and the way they were carried out" apnews.com/article/isra...

"Netanyahu has frozen his country’s USD 35 bn natural gas export agreement with Egypt last week, amid rising Israeli-Egyptian tensions over the war in Gaza and Cairo’s military deployments in Sinai" enterprise.news/egypt/en/new...

OPEC+ raised the October production ceiling It approved returning 137,000 barrels a day, 1/12 of the 1.65 million barrels it's currently withholding Oil is trading at $67, lower than last week www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

5 things that happened this week: Oil supply boost • Saudi wants OPEC+ to pump more crude ahead of Sunday's meeting • MBS will visit the US in November & Trump favours cheap oil • Risk: Excess supply could flood the market & lower prices 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

UAE: “Annexation in the West Bank would constitute a red line” "A condition for the UAE joining the accords was that Israel would not annex the occupied Palestinian territories of the West Bank and Gaza" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Saudi has revised up foreign investment numbers • Latest (2024): $32 billion • A third higher than previously reported • Close to the 2021 record of $32.5 billion Interestingly: the UAE has been the top source of investments into Saudi for 4 years www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

3 phases of Israel economy 1975-85 • High military spending • Hyperinflation • Incomes falling further behind the US 1985-22 • Falling military spending • Low inflation • Closing the gap with the US 2023-now • War economy • Stalling growth • Still low inflation

What’s the connection between these 2 headlines: • Saudi Arabia is spending trillions on Neom • Jerome Powell says US neutral interest rate is now higher (picture) Answer: the more Gulf states invest at home, the higher US borrowing costs get 1/5

Iraq: The US has sanctioned businessman Waleed al-Samarra’i Reason: Disguising Iranian oil as Iraqi crude before selling it abroad Not the first case — in July, Washington sanctioned Salim Ahmed Said for the same allegations www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Saudi: From global lender to global borrower • Riyadh borrowed $5.5 billion from the bond market • Total bond issuance this year = $20 billion • Close to the 2017 record • One of the busiest issuers in emerging markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

My latest: What's the cost of war on Israel? • Economy used to grow 4% a year; after the war it has stalled to 0% • That has compounded into a 7% shortfall, on par with the US during the global financial crisis • The gap may persist Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

"A leading organisation of genocide experts has passed a resolution declaring that Israel’s conduct during its almost two-year war in Gaza meets the legal definition of genocide" www.ft.com/content/470b...

Iran currency is sinking towards a record low on the parallel market The trigger? Fears that Europe may reinstate sanctions (Chart source: bonbast.com) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bernanke's savings glut theory: Gulf money lowered US borrowing costs How? 3 building blocks: • High oil prices • GCC trade surpluses • Savings going into safe US debt But these pillars are cracking: • Oil is falling • Surpluses are shrinking • Gulf is taking more risks

The US is shifting troops in Iraq — from two bases to Erbil Possible explanations: • Give Iraq’s prime minister a pre-election win • Shield itself from an Iranian backlash if tensions flare www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/us-military-...

Israel killed the prime minister of the Houthis in Yemen "Al-Rahawi wasn’t part of the inner circle around al-Houthi .. His government, like the previous ones, was tasked with running the day-to-day civilian affairs in Sanaa and other Houthi-held areas" apnews.com/article/yeme...

Did Gulf money reduce US borrowing costs? Yes: • 2005–2014: GCC reserves rose by $800 bn, mostly US debt • That’s ¼ the size of quantitative easing, which lowered rates by ~1 percentage point (picture) ⇒ Gulf inflows lowered US yields by ~0.25 points

خبران قد يبدوان منفصلين لكنهما مترابطان: • إنفاق السعودية مليارات على مدينة نيوم • تصريح جيروم باول رئيس البنك المركزي الأمريكي أن المستوى الطبيعي لسعر الفائدة صار أعلى من قبل (الصورة) ما علاقة نيوم بباول؟ كلما زاد إنفاق الخليج في الداخل، ارتفعت تكلفة الدين على أمريكا 1/5

5 things that happened this week: Egypt cut interest rates by 2 percentage points It needs to balance • High rates: attract hot money & stabilise currency • Low rates: ease government borrowing costs A weaker US dollar makes it easier to cut 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Slovenia foreign minister "accused Netanyahu’s government of violating international law and committing “clear genocidal acts” and said that the EU had failed to impose a “single real measure” against Israel" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Mideast war boycott: • Starbucks operator in Malaysia reported a record loss • Revenue fell 36% in the latest financial year • Cause? “the prolonged impact of the ongoing sentiment related to the Middle East conflict” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The Mideast gives the world 3 inputs: • Energy • Capital • Trade routes It takes 2 prices: • Oil • Interest rates Now we're entering a world of: • More oil supply • Less Mideast capital • Disrupted trade • Cheaper oil • Lower rates

If you think Israel wars can cause political turmoil in Europe but not in the Mideast, you probably need to revisit that assumption 👇 “We think they [the Dutch government] should all resign .. Ignoring a genocide is horrible behavior” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"At least 15 Israeli airstrikes took place Wednesday in different parts of the countryside of Damascus [in Syria] .. In Tuesday’s attack .. Syrian soldiers found surveillance equipment and were trying to dismantle it when they were hit by Israeli drones" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bill Dudley: Markets are too complacent • Trump trying to fire a central bank governor is unprecedented • If he succeeds, he'll have appointed 4 of 7 governors • Even a small chance of political takeover is disruptive Yet markets aren't reflecting that www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

China dominates trade with the Mideast But in defense exports, it’s absent Here, the US remains indispensable

Syria accused Israel "of illegally seizing more territory in a military operation on Monday" "Israel’s defence minister has said his country’s military will remain on Syrian territory around Mount Hermon .. vowing to hold land seized from its neighbour" www.ft.com/content/0a0b...

Microsoft has requested help from the FBI "in tracking protests, worked with local authorities to try and prevent them, flagged internal emails containing words like “Gaza” and deleted some internal posts about the protests" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

My latest: The US talked of pivoting to Asia, but the real pivot came from the Mideast By 2010, China had overtaken the US as the region's main trade partner Today, commercial ties with China are three times larger than with the US Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal