Great overview from @ziaddaoud.bsky.social of how the MENA region's rentier model goes beyond oil and gas to encompass land sales, foreign aid, trade routes and more. Looking ahead, renewables will cut CO2 but won't democratize the region so long as deployment remains firmly in state hands.

Not the easiest of times, but it's always engaging to discuss the war, economics, the Middle East, and markets at our Bloomberg office in Dubai. Thanks to everyone who joined us today!

Iraq is offering a $33 discount on oil The catch: Buyers have to transit Hormuz to collect the barrels Number of vessels loading at the port of Basra: • Before the war: 80 a month • March: 12 • April: 2 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Friends at Bloomberg Businessweek asked me to tally the economic costs of the Iran war So far: • Oil: record glut → historic disruption • Borrowing costs: higher • Income growth: slower The worst part? The bill may still rise Read the full assessment here 👇 www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

What happened Monday? • US says 2 destroyers transited Hormuz • UAE says it intercepted Iranian missiles, blamed drones for fire at Fujairah & strike on ADNOC tanker • Calls in US & Israel to renew attacks on Iran Oil rose from $108 to $114 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Why did the UAE ask for a currency swap facility with the US? Minister of Foreign Trade: “It is an elite matter. It is not about bailing out” That was my interpretation too when the news broke www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Iran attacked the UAE for the first time in almost a month" "Several mobile-phone alerts were sent to people in Dubai, urging them to get to safe areas, and other emirates including Abu Dhabi" Oil jumped to $114 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A full economic recovery in Israel hinges on two assumptions: (1) wars are over; (2) the conflict hasn’t caused lasting damage Now there's another war & another consensus downgrade to its growth forecast Full analysis on why Israel's economy can't outrun its wars on the Bloomberg terminal

Another new initiative that doesn't move the needle • Trump says the US will guide ships trapped in the Gulf through Hormuz • The initiative doesn't currently involve navy escorts • Oil markets shrugged: prices are higher now than on Friday www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

OPEC+ agreed to raise production quotas for June 2 issues loom large: 1. Hormuz closure means many members can't get their oil out to the world regardless of quotas 2. UAE's exit from the group means higher non-OPEC+ output if & when the Iran war ends www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Oil isn't the only market where the Iran war is showing up Before the war, markets expected US interest rates to fall this year (blue) Today, they expect rates to stay unchanged (orange) The war is making consumers pay more for energy & more for loans

Oil is at $108 That's the exact number Dina Esfandiary & I warned about in January if war broke out in the Middle East We laid out the history, the scenarios, the maths, and what $108 crude does to the global economy Weekend reading, perhaps 👇 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

What do the UAE’s OPEC exit, Houthi restraint in the Red Sea, and a Saudi loan to Pakistan have in common? They point to 4 alliances shaping the Mideast today: 1. Iran + its axis 2. UAE + Israel 3. Saudi + Pakistan 4. Turkey + Qatar Analysis, with Dina Esfandiary, on the Bloomberg terminal

Had to do with June futures contracts rolling into July

Oil went all the way up to $125 today It has since fallen to $114 I'm struggling to find the news driver

Trump: “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing” Sure: oil is at $119 It's the highest level not only during this Iran war, but since June 2022

How much oil is Saudi exporting from the Red Sea? About 4 million barrels a day in the first 3 weeks of April That compares with about 7 million barrels before the Iran war www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iraqi politicians chose Ali Al-Zaidi as new candidate for prime minister Relatively unknown, he has a month to submit his government to parliament for approval The US Embassy in Baghdad appeared pleased with the choice www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Why did the UAE leave OPEC? It has a different vision from Saudi on: 1. Oil: Saudi seeks higher prices; UAE wants higher output (chart) 2. Region: Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Somalia 3. Iran war: Pakistan loan is another sign of the rift Analysis, with Dina Esfandiary, on the Bloomberg terminal

In Dubai and want to discuss the Middle East, economics, and where the world is heading? Join us in person: • When? Friday, 8 May • What time? 10am • Where? Bloomberg's Dubai office To attend, please register here: go.bloomberg.com/attend/invit...

In January, Dina Esfandiary & I wrote that the Saudi-UAE rift could spill over to OPEC The Iran war didn't heal that fracture And today, the UAE announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+

Oil identity: supply = demand + inventory change What did the Iran war do? • Cut supply by ~10% • Forced adjustment through lower demand & inventory releases – mix unknown • If stockpiles run down, the world may need still-lower demand & higher prices www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

What does the Iran war say about the dollar? Short term: still king • Beat other currencies • Beat gold • Beat bitcoin in 2026 Long term: cracks • US alienating allies • No decisive victory • Hormuz fees in yuan & crypto Full analysis, with Adriana Dupita, on the Bloomberg terminal

The double blockade has frozen Hormuz • Some Iranian ships are moving, but not passing the US blockade line • Other vessels aren't sailing past Iranian control • Oil has risen to $111 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Egypt is relaxing early-closing restrictions on shops, introduced after the Iran war to curb energy consumption Is it because: a) the energy crunch is easing; or b) the costs of the restrictions exceed their benefits? www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz • Extend the ceasefire • Postpone nuclear negotiations • Lift the US blockade What do oil markets think? Price is up to $108 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

On the 10th anniversary of Saudi Vision 2030, I think my late-2024 talk at Harvard still holds Yes, Saudi has made progress on social openness But economically, the kingdom has become more dependent on oil than in 2016 www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ae...

5 things that happened this week: War in Limbo • Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely after saying he was unlikely to • Iran's foreign minister & US envoys are in Pakistan • Israel says it's waiting on US green light to escalate against Iran 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Original US plan: Iran will be like Venezuela That didn't work New plan: Iranian leadership is divided; if we get rid of hardliners, we may pull a Venezuela with the moderates

The war isn't over Israel defense minister: "We are awaiting a green light from the United States--first and foremost to finish off the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty-- and to send Iran back to the Dark and Stone Ages" www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Arab Gulf states have borrowed more than $13 billion since the Iran war began in late Feb Most of the borrowing comes from the richest three: UAE, Qatar, Kuwait Probably a sign they can find willing lenders, not just a need for funds www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The Iran war has pulled emerging-market exchange rates in opposite directions The dividing factor: how much oil each country buys or sells Oil exporters are gaining, importers are losing, the movement is proportional to the shock Full analysis, with Adriana Dupita, on the Bloomberg terminal

Mideast war latest: • Double blockade on Hormuz • Trump announces 3-week extension of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire • Markets aren't liking the limbo: oil is up for the 5th day to $107 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired after clashing with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth The abrupt dismissal comes as the Navy is helping oversee a Hormuz blockade Phelan is only the latest high-level departure from the Pentagon since the Iran war began www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Dubai real estate: "A home price index compiled by ValuStrat fell 5.9% in March from a month earlier, with valuations seeing their first decline since 2020" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

State of Hormuz: • The US intercepted 2 Iranian tankers • Iran attacked vessels & diverted 2 into its waters • Oil rose for the 4th day to $103 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Scott Bessent says many Gulf and Asian nations have requested currency-swap lines with the US "The UAE informally inquired about [a] potential .. currency swap, if the impact of the war worsens, people familiar with the matter previously told Bloomberg" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This is a mess 👇 Trump's special envoy - Paolo Zampolli - seeks to replace Iran with Italy in the World Cup Why? An effort to repair ties between Trump and Meloni, who fell out over Trump's attacks on the pope www.ft.com/content/1ff3...

Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil killed in Israeli strike "Israeli airstrike hit near the car she was traveling in" "A second Israeli strike then hit the house .. where [she] had taken cover" Rescue workers "were fired on by Israeli forces" apnews.com/article/leba...

The US blocked a $500-million shipment of dollar banknotes to Iraq – 2nd time since the Iran war began The cash is Iraq's money, proceeds from oil sales held at the New York Fed Iraq needs the notes to keep its cash-based economy functioning www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Porous blockade: • Iranian ships are sailing past US blockade line at Hormuz • This article says they've moved 9 million barrels of oil to the market • That's about 1 million barrels of oil per day, given that the blockade began on 13 April www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Tuesday TACO: • Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely • After saying on Monday it was “highly unlikely” that he'd prolong the truce • He'll maintain a blockade on ships going to and from Iran Oil reaction? Price is up to almost $100 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump on Iran: • Ceasefire expires Wednesday evening US time • He's unlikely to extend the truce • Pakistan talks to begin Tuesday night or Wednesday morning Iran has yet to confirm participation www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This report says the UAE is asking the US for a currency swap Don't think this is about dollar shortages: • The UAE is wealthy • The Iran war has reduced but not stopped oil exports • It just signed its own swap deal with Bahrain www.wsj.com/world/middle...

"Trump said the Navy stopped and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, “blowing a hole” in its engine room after it ignored warnings to stop" Ceasefire! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I told Vivian Nereim of @nytimes.com that the Saudi story always begins & ends with oil That surging oil prices have helped Riyadh offset export losses from the Iran war And that a decade into Vision 2030, economic performance is still linked to oil www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/w...

Probability of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end-April? Near 40% yesterday Close to 20% today Source: Polymarket

Doesn't look like de-escalation → "The US has already turned back 23 ships that have sought to leave Iranian ports .. the broadening of the campaign will enable the US to take control of .. vessels around the world, including ships carrying Iranian oil" www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Hormuz & Lebanon were always the 2 main hurdles to a ceasefire in the Middle East. They still are. Hormuz: Iran says the waterway is closed. The US blockade continues. Lebanon: A truce came on Thursday. Israel struck targets on Saturday. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

5 things that happened this week: Trump signalled an end to his 7-week Iran war • Claimed Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear programme indefinitely • Said Iran agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again • Iran hasn’t confirmed these claims 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...