ما أهمية الانتخابات العراقية بعد يومين؟ التصويت يحدد كيف تقسم الكعكة، لكن حجم الكعكة يحدده النفط 3 حقائق: • اقتصاد العراق يحيا ويمرض مع النفط • الاعتماد على النفط زاد في آخر 3 سنوات • إذا هبط النفط تحت 53 دولار، فلن تكفي الإيرادات لتغطية أجور الموظفين والمتقاعدين 1/5

5 things that happened this week: Qatar is wiring $3.5 billion to Egypt by year-end & $30 billion over 7 years In return, it gets land on the North Coast The cash could unlock a delayed IMF review — a similar UAE deal ended Egypt’s crisis last year 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I enjoyed chatting with Nur Arafeh about Middle East economies and the world today You may enjoy it too — if you click on this link: carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

4 possible futures await the dollar: 1. Stay supreme 2. Keep the throne but shed some market share 3. Lose its crown to another currency 4. Yield to gold or crypto Adriana Dupita and I looked at a range of indicators Our conclusion: 2nd scenario is the most likely

"The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical of Trump’s sweeping global tariffs .. A decision against Trump could force more than $100 billion in refunds, remove a major burden on the US importers .. and blunt an all-purpose cudgel the president has wielded" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Qatar plans to send $3.5 billion to Egypt Target: another tourism project on the north coast In 2024, the UAE bought land in the same area for $35 billion — a deal that unlocked a $57 billion international bailout for Egypt www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

3 hard truths define Iraq today:‎ • Its economy lives and dies with oil • Recent government policies haven’t reduced oil reliance – they’ve made it worse • If oil drops below $53, revenues won't cover its wage & pension bill Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

China fueled global oil demand this century — could AI be the next driver? The UAE expects demand staying above 100 million barrels a day beyond 2040 And says the energy industry will need annual investment of $4 trillion to meet rising consumption www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Zohran Mamdani spoke Arabic in his victory speech "I'm from you, and for you" www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae0u...

How is the Gaza ceasefire going? Quieter — but not quiet As this chart from a recent piece by Dina Esfandiary shows, battles and attacks have slowed since the truce, but haven’t disappeared

"Officials said earlier this year that the number of Israeli tech workers leaving the country each month had jumped by about 45 per cent in the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war" www.ft.com/content/4636...

"Economists calculate that the AI boom accounted for more than half of America’s 1.6% growth rate over the first six months of 2025" How? 1. Investment: data centres, IT, software 2. Wealth effect: booming AI stocks → people feel richer → consume more www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

My latest: OPEC+ blinked — and Saudi data explain why Why did OPEC+ decide to pause after months of flooding the market? The reason isn’t just at sea, with a glut of oil piling up on tankers It’s also in Riyadh’s books — Saudi has never been more dependent on oil

OPEC+ oil strategy, a timeline: • 2020: Saudi-Russia price war • 2020-21: Covid output cuts • 2021-22: Unwind • 2022-25: Output curbs to lift prices • 2025: Unwind again • 2026: Planned pause Price war → Cuts → Unwind → Cuts → Unwind → Pause www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

5 things that happened in October: Oil slid to $65 • Oversupply fears are rising • OPEC+ is pumping, and is likely to approve another hike today • Only US sanctions on Russia have slowed the fall in prices 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

A ceasefire of sorts: • Israeli strikes on Gaza • Following attacks on Israeli soldiers • Israel has killed 94 Palestinians since truce • Several US officials travelled to Israel to keep the pact intact www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Although US sanctions on Russian giant energy companies Rosneft & Lukoil have jolted the industry .. the oil market remains oversupplied .. The industry is debating the magnitude of the glut, but few disagree that oil supply will run well ahead of demand" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Trump wants the Gulf to pay for rebuilding Gaza — but it's not that simple: 1. The bill is huge: $70 billion 2. Lower oil prices constrain GCC budgets 3. Competing domestic & external spending priorities 4. Politics first, money later www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Austerity and consulting in Saudi In 2016, the government was cutting spending — yet the consulting industry was booming (left image) In 2025, spending cuts are hitting consultants (right image & link) www.ft.com/content/5adf...

Why did Egypt raise fuel prices even as global energy costs fell? Because it promised the IMF to reduce fuel subsidies to cover the government’s costs by December 2025 That target seems met — authorities now say no more price hikes for at least a year www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Morocco boosting social spending after youth protests isn’t surprising — the same happened after the 2011 Arab Spring What's striking is this: young people from Gen Z care more about healthcare than the World Cup www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Where’s the oil glut showing up? 1. At sea: tankers now hold 1 billion barrels — the most since 2020 2. In forecasts: analysts expect at least 2 million barrels a day of surplus in 2026 3. In prices: Brent is sliding toward $60 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Philippe Aghion has won the Nobel Prize in economics — with Joel Mokyr & Peter Howitt His mother left Egypt to France in the 1950s, founded the designer brand Chloé (picture from 'Good Economics for Hard Times' by Banerjee & Duflo) Both parents were part of Henri Curiel's Marxist circle in Egypt

"Netanyahu ordered drone attacks on Gaza-bound humanitarian aid boats off Tunisia .. In September, Tunisian authorities disputed that drones dropping incendiary devices caused the fire, instead claiming that .. the explosion originated inside the boat" www.cbsnews.com/news/netanya...

Trump says Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his peace plan — one day before the Nobel Peace Prize is announced He had also brokered a Gaza ceasefire one day before his inauguration in January — that one didn't last

"Watching Israel’s bombardment [of Gaza] has become a popular pastime; people take turns looking through tower viewers. Some bring popcorn and snacks, and some snap selfies as the thud of airstrikes echo in the distance" edition.cnn.com/2025/10/05/m...

Last week at Chatham House, I argued that $53 oil is Iraq’s line between calm and crisis My initial remarks start around 2:30 Great sharing the panel with Raghad al-Abboodi, Hayder Al Shakeri, Amer al-Adhadh — under the moderation of Lina Khatib youtu.be/c6i5_9KuEks?...

OPEC+ met for 9 minutes & added 137k barrels a day • Saudi wanted to pump more; Russia to defend prices • Some members are nearing capacity, restoring only 60% of agreed supply hike since May • Signs of oil glut: unsold Mideast cargoes are accumulating www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

كيف تحولت سيرة مؤرخ إلى مفتاح لفهم الاقتصاد؟ يعتبر آفي شلايم، المولود في بغداد، من أبرز مؤرخي الشرق الأوسط، خصوصا في موضوع الصراع مع إسرائيل لكن في كتابه "العوالم الثلاثة: مذكرات يهودي-عربي"، لم يكتب عن الماضي فقط، بل لامس جوهر الاقتصاد السياسي في المنطقة اليوم 1/5

5 things that happened this week: Trump proposed a 20-point plan to end the Gaza war Hamas agreed to release Israeli hostages, and Trump responded positively Betting markets now put the odds of a Gaza ceasefire by end-October near 50% 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Join us for two in-person Bloomberg events in the US Washington, DC — October 14 Agenda: left panel in the image Register: www.bloomberg.com/event-regist... New York — October 15 Agenda: right panel in the image Register: go.bloomberg.com/attend/invit...

Iraq prospers when oil is high — and falls into crisis when it drops Where’s the tipping point between calm and chaos? Our estimate: $53 a barrel Today oil is at $65, but a supply glut could push prices closer to the threshold Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

In Washington DC and interested in learning more about Trumponomics, the Fed, trade, and global security Join us in our office on October 14th Registration is open here 👇 www.bloomberg.com/event-regist...

How Italy is shifting on Palestine • Meloni: from Israel ally in 2022 to presenting a motion to recognise Palestine • Public: 88% in favour of recognition, from 54% a year ago • Defense ministry: dispatched frigates to protect Global Freedom Flotilla www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“Netanyahu might have to choose between Trump and his coalition members” Trump may demand a ceasefire in Gaza; Netanyahu has vowed to continue the war Prediction markets put the odds of a ceasefire this year at 60% — down from over 90% in July apnews.com/article/trum...

The IEA is predicting a record oil glut, yet prices have climbed in September Why the disconnect? Possible reasons: • Temporary summer demand • China stockpiling crude • Geopolitical risks (Russia & Iran) • The IEA's forecast is wrong www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

5 things that happened this week: Oil rose to $70 Why? Worries about Russian supplies • Trump told Turkey to stop buying crude from Russia • He warned Hungary could be next • Ukrainian drones are striking Russian energy infrastructure 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Exporters .. worry about Israel becoming a pariah as images of the destruction in Gaza spark outrage globally. Some European customers are asking Israeli defense firms to keep talks about future orders under wraps" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

PwC has cut 60 partners & 1,500 staff in the Mideast There's a macro and a micro story here: Macro: Saudi spending cuts are hitting the consulting industry Micro: Saudi wealth fund has banned PwC from new advisory work www.ft.com/content/eaaf...

More than 75% of the UN member states already recognise Palestine Now: Australia, Canada & the UK have joined them Soon: France, Belgium, Portugal & Malta plan to follow www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The latest from Dina Esfandiary and me: Until 2 years ago, Iran loomed as the GCC's top threat Today, the order has likely shifted: for many Gulf states, Israel is now a bigger danger Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

one week after Israel struck Qatar, as the US stood watching: Saudi and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact, stating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a UN-commissioned report concluded www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati academic, said there was, for the first time, a “serious conversation [in the UAE] that it is time to freeze the Abraham Accords [with Israel] .. The accord is becoming a political liability, not a strategic asset”" www.ft.com/content/5ca2...

NEW: The Limits of Protections and Profit, Five Years Into the Abraham Accords Arang Keshavarzian reviews Elham Fakhro's new book on the Abraham Accords.

Mideast war boycott: • Coca Cola has lost market share in Turkey & Pakistan • Trigger: perceived links to Israel • Other companies in the crosshairs: Starbucks, McDonald's, Carrefour www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Israel strike on Doha has rattled the GCC-US "oil for security" pact Gulf options from here: 1. Diversify security ties 2. Keep the status quo 3. Try to split the US & Israel 4. Bend the knee to Israel 5. Weaponise energy Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal, with Dina Esfandiary

What’s the chance of a Gaza ceasefire before year-end? A week ago, the likelihood was close to 50% After Israel strike on Qatar, the probability has sunk to 28% polymarket.com/event/israel...

Jeffrey Epstein emails: "[A] spreadsheet attached to a 2007 email describes about $1.8 million in gifts and payments between 2003 and 2006. The document includes big-ticket items, including a $71,000 Lexus that went to Epstein’s lawyer, Alan Dershowitz" www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

In 1973, Arab oil producers embargoed countries backing Israel: US Netherlands Portugal South Africa Today • S. Africa leading a genocide case against Israel • Portugal weighing Palestine recognition • Dutch foreign minister resigned over Israel policy www.britannica.com/event/Arab-o...