"What follows now is probably a sustained campaign by Israel. Its airforce has around 300 manned fighter-jets and long-range attack drones, but only a limited number can attack simultaneously due to its small number of refuelling tankers." www.economist.com/middle-east-...

A bit of nuance on regional reactions: plenty of people in the Middle East are happy to see Iran hit. They are also deeply worried about what comes next. But Lebanese, Syrians, Yemenis etc. who suffered for years because of the Islamic republic are glad to see it bloodied. 🧵

"'This has been a bad week for the Army for anyone who cares about us being a neutral institution,' one commander at Fort Bragg told @militarydotcom.bsky.social on the condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation. 'This was shameful.'" www.military.com/daily-news/2...

On further steps Iran might take after the IAEA censure vote: "Sources in Tehran indicated to @amwajmedia.bsky.social that the 'special measures' may include the expulsion of foreign inspectors. Such a step would be a major escalation and potentially cross US red lines." amwaj.media/en/article/i...

The US embassy in Israel today instructed staff and their families not to travel outside greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be'er Sheva. It issued similar restrictions in April and October last year after the Iranian ballistic-missile attacks on Israel

Exactly right: "Regardless of the location, it is hard to see why Saudi Arabia would entertain a significant nuclear partnership with Iran—let alone one that hands the Islamic republic dominance over a sector the kingdom is keen to develop and control." amwaj.media/en/article/d...

One other thing: worth noting that US media leaks overnight were non-specific. No intel about Israel taking operational steps for an imminent strike. Just that it was "considering military action" or "fully ready" to strike, which is common knowledge www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-...

Don't have a clear answer what's happening with US/Iran (no one who's talking about it publicly does!) but will just say that last night's news can be, simultaneously, a stunt to pressure Iran to make concessions *and* the kind of concrete step you'd take before military action

A trade war run by ideologues and buffoons: "[Chinese] exports have risen by 6% overall, owing to increased shipments to Europe and South-East Asia. China's currency, meanwhile, is stronger now against the dollar than it was before April 2nd." www.economist.com/finance-and-...

All of the "flaws" here were entirely predictable. "The military and GHF had prepared for smaller crowds than the tens of thousands who have come to the sites" — what on earth did they expect, setting up only a handful of centers to serve 2m people? www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Well, this explains that Tucker Carlson tweet denouncing Levin last week (and the claim is indeed untrue: it conflates enriching some weapons-grade uranium with building a nuclear weapon)

As ever with Trump, this could be a very newsworthy admission or it could be meaningless word salad, and there's really no way to be sure which it is www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Couple of thoughts here, beyond pointless hand-wringing about how this is an enormous breach of diplomatic norms (🫠). If Huckabee is personally intervening to try and save the Israeli government, it tells you how worried Netanyahu is about losing his coalition www.timesofisrael.com/us-ambassado...

"Every day, we lose more ways to survive. My son is only asking for the bare minimum — a loaf of bread. We're not asking for proper housing or clothes or even meat. All we want is a loaf of bread to stop the children's crying. Is that too much to ask?" www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/w...

In the 1980s Israel allowed an Islamist group in Gaza to start gathering weapons, in the hope that it would fight Fatah, Israel's main enemy at the time. That group went on to become Hamas. Glad to see everyone has learned the right lessons from history www.nytimes.com/2025/06/05/w...

The GHF ignored weeks of warnings that its model would mean overwhelming crowds. And then the inevitable result: "Senior commanders had considered managing the crowds through the use of live fire. 'The intent was to direct the population using gunfire.'" www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...

The idea that Russia might "be helpful" on Iran talks has been floated for months. There's not much evidence it's actually happening. But it's useful for Putin to keep the idea alive in Trump's mind

Iran shipped less oil to China in May, at least according to preliminary data, but it seems unclear how much of that is due to tighter sanctions and how much is down to weak demand + refiners that stockpiled Iranian oil earlier in the year. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Will the UAE break OPEC? "It is only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia and the UAE openly clash. A descent into disorder, fuelled by conflict between OPEC’s largest and third-largest exporters, could then make the cartel unworkable." www.economist.com/finance-and-...

"As leaders from Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh competed to pledge trillions of dollars for US investments during President Donald Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East, bankers behind the scenes quietly agreed: Saudi Arabia isn’t the draw it once was." www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Good @hdagres.bsky.social analysis on how Araghchi is COPYING Trump's communication style, down to his weird Capitalizations: "Since the current talks began, he has methodically cultivated a narrative designed to catch the ear of Trump and his base." www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

If you force large crowds of desperate people to congregate in a war zone in the hope they can obtain scarce aid, it's going to end badly. This isn't just an issue of needing better signage or fences or something. It's a problem with the entire GHF concept www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-aid-gro...

"What awaits them is suffocating overcrowding, one of the densest concentrations of human beings in the world. Unlike in other heavily populated urban settings, such as the slums of south Asia, there is no sanitation and no running water." www.ft.com/content/ba6e...

This sounds as if someone got really creative and proposed building the enrichment facility on the Tunbs or Abu Musa, where theoretically both Iran and the UAE could claim it was on their soil www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...

Israel for the past six months: we will work to prevent the new Syrian government from having any authority in the south Israel, yesterday: why doesn't the new Syrian government have any authority in the south? www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

The same issues as ever: "A senior Hamas official said the deal contradicted previous discussions between the group and Witkoff. The official told the BBC that the offer did not include guarantees the temporary truce would lead to a permanent ceasefire." www.bbc.com/news/article...

So an obscure court blocked most of Trump's tariffs, but he can use a different authority to reinstate limited tariffs for five months and start laying the groundwork for open-ended ones on big trading partners. Great news for businesses, who famously love chaos and uncertainty

I mean, it's possible they agree to *something* in the coming weeks (although it will be far short of a formal nuclear deal). But this is also just how Trump talks: excessive, unwarranted optimism about dealmaking is kind of his thing edition.cnn.com/2025/05/28/p...

For all of Witkoff's optimism yesterday, the sticking points here are basically the same as always. Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire in Gaza; Israel does not. Hamas wants to keep hostages as leverage until the end of the deal; Israel wants them out immediately.

Day one of the new "aid mechanism": maybe 2% of Gazan families were able to collect food parcels before thousands of hungry people overran one of the distribution centers and forced it to close temporarily. www.timesofisrael.com/gazans-overr...

On the one hand, yes, this is Israel's "diplomatic nadir". But even at the nadir it's still getting kid-glove treatment: its Western allies are searching for symbolic measures to show their displeasure, not ways to impose real consequences. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/w...

In which the director of the "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation" finally discovers what should have been clear months ago to anyone who did a modicum of due diligence www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

If Trump really wants the horror show in Gaza to end "as quickly as possible", he can tell Netanyahu to end it. Otherwise these sorts of comments are no different than all of the "Biden is fed up with Bibi, for real this time" leaks from last year www.axios.com/2025/05/26/t...

Think Rubio was exaggerating quite a bit when he said Syria was weeks from "full-scale civil war of epic proportions" without sanctions relief. But if that's what it takes to sell the policy and give it some urgency, then exaggerate away, guys www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Headline is dramatic but the details aren't. Israel has been making preparations to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities for years: common knowledge. This reads like a leak aimed at pressuring the Iranians, not a sign that Israel's preparations have accelerated edition.cnn.com/2025/05/20/p...

More details about the "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation", the dodgy group meant to take over aid distribution. It claims to have raised $100m, but won't name its donors; and one of the prominent humanitarian figures listed as a "board member" says he is not, in fact, on the board.

A trickle of aid entered Gaza. But the UN says Israel hasn't yet allowed it to collect that aid from the Palestinian side of the border crossing. So nothing has been distributed yet www.bbc.com/news/article...

"Perhaps there will be a last-minute compromise. Without it, the coming weeks will be bleak. Netanyahu says he will end the war only once he has 'total victory'. Total devastation for Gaza and isolation for Israel are more likely." www.economist.com/middle-east-...

"Crypto has not just facilitated fraud, money-laundering and other financial crime on a gargantuan scale. It has also developed a grubby relationship with the White House that outstrips any other industry. Crypto has become the ultimate swamp asset." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

This by @hooks.bsky.social, about Trump's Greenland fixation, is a thoughtful musing on his second term and this moment of frenetic ferment in American politics. "Why are the Americans doing this? My worry is that the answer is simple: We're bored." newrepublic.com/article/1947...

"The general feeling among Palestinians all over Gaza, not just Beit Lahiya, is that Hamas doesn't care about their lives or suffering. The general feeling is that Hamas cares more about its own survival." www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Insanity. Skeptical that there's a serious "plan" (rather than spitballing). But the underlying premise is correct: the Trump administration has spent months approaching various countries to see if it could bribe them into helping out with the ethnic cleansing of Gaza www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...

This matter-of-fact @cnn.com interview with the head of the new Gaza "aid mechanism" tells you a lot about how shambolic the effort is. He doesn't know when or how many aid trucks Israel will allow into Gaza; he admits that for at least 90 days the mechanism can't feed everyone.

Again, seems as if Saudi is handling relations with Trump better than in his first term: this time it's Qatar and the UAE becoming political footballs in Washington for tawdry financial dealings with the Trump family (and for the UAE also because of Sudan) www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/u...

This from @972mag is a detailed investigation into how Israeli troops are systematically destroying buildings in Gaza. Lots of small war crimes, in pursuit of a much bigger one: "No one knows better than us that the Gazans have nowhere to return." www.972mag.com/israel-gaza-...

If Trump isn't willing to force Netanyahu to end the war, then the war is not going to end www.timesofisrael.com/witkoff-told...

This sounds like Rubio is trying to slow-walk sanctions relief for Syria, even though Trump clearly said he wants them all lifted. Congress doesn't have to wait for the White House to ask, though. It can (and should) repeal the Caesar Act immediately

Either Jake Sullivan is lying or somehow the national-security adviser of the United States never spent any time with the president of the United States www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

The idea that we're headed for an interim nuclear deal (hello again, JPOA!) makes sense. It buys time for Iran, which has been their goal all year. And it fits with Trump's style of seeking quick, easy "wins" while leaving many of the details unresolved. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

"Trump's eagerness to accept such a lavish gift from a Middle Eastern power has put congressional Republicans in the awkward-but-familiar position of defending a move that they would denounce were it made by a Democratic president." www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...