vivien leigh defeats truman

Excited to kick off another year of #AAPOR! Sharing some of my slides on a fun little survey experiment for anyone who was at a different panel (or, unfathomably, not attending a polling conference.)

pollsters incapable of setting up a simple numerical cipher because they refuse to make N≤26

I love that "forks" for "yes" has officially gone down in survey lore

idea: conference track where the presentations can be about whatever but the temperature in the breakout room is not 50 degrees

choosing to interpret this as an obscure discworld joke

i am once again reminding people about the California flag

There’s little belief that the economic system works for average Americans — CNN Poll. (@jennagiesta.bsky.social, Annette Choi, @aedwardslevy.bsky.social, Edward Wu, David Goldman) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260513-top...

Paraphrasing the brilliant @mollybrodie.bsky.social “We can’t all have a seat at the political table where the decisions are being made, but the data gets a seat at the table and high quality data represents all the voices.” @aapor.bsky.social @ssrsresearch.bsky.social

Inside you are two wolves. One says “I want everyone to read my story.” The other says “oh God everyone is reading my story” and also that wolf is vomiting.

"Thanks for agreeing to participate! OK, first question: Why are you weird like that?"

From the same #aapor panel this morning, I also really enjoyed this experiment from Jack Miller at BlueLabs - can we curb survey dropoff by telling people a joke but withholding the punchline? (No, alas)

Excited to kick off another year of #AAPOR! Sharing some of my slides on a fun little survey experiment for anyone who was at a different panel (or, unfathomably, not attending a polling conference.)

lanyard tags are one "probably a bit chilly right now" sticker away from capturing most of my essential elements

I’ve been thinking about this chart since I saw it yesterday (h/t @aedwardslevy.bsky.social). I think this maybe supports the idea voters were voting for a return to a time they felt positive about the economy. Feel really salient considering that Trump 2 has been bad on the economy.

next time can we have aapor at the getty villa

the research replicates (I left home at what I believed to be a reasonable time and now I am through security and my flight is in 90 minutes. I am not, in almost any other set of circumstances, an early person)

57% say other political issues matter at least as much as the economy when it comes to this year’s midterms, 43% say the economy matters more than any other political issue. Groups where 50%+ say economy matters more: "true" un-leaned indies, those who don't report closely following politics

I feel like some political scientist out there will enjoy these tabs: is it a bigger problem that the government isn't helping enough people, or that it's helping too many people who don't "deserve" it? www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...

was deeply concerned about the noises my laptop was making until I realized they were in fact emanating from the tea kettle; in conclusion, doing great, thanks

New CNN/SSRS poll from @aedwardslevy.bsky.social and team: "A decade ago, 67% of Americans felt working hard was enough to get ahead. That share fell to 47% in 2026. Drop-offs were particularly steep among Democrats, women and Black and Hispanic adults." www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/p...

Really, really excited to share our new deep-dive polling on affordability and the economy -- what it means for Americans across the country (and, yes, what the potential political ramifications are.) Main story here: www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/p...

i don't especially want to skip ahead to summer but I do want it to be caprese szn

i'm not the friend but I could theoretically be the friend

there should be a way to do things that doesn't require doing them

legitimately think that the youthfully held view that is most damaging to my Brand is that up through like high school, I was a never-cold person

"why do you keep running up to me and screaming 'Knope!' whenever you disagree with something" "affective Poehler-ization"

"why do you keep running up to me and squawking 'Nevermore' whenever you disagree with something" "affective Poe-larization"

got a tip that fermented juice beverages are going to be big this year, so I bought shares in an apple orchard unfortunately, busted for in-cider trading :(

alternately, anyone is welcome to come back to the valley with me to hike treepeople and then go for froyo

the most fun game to play in the newsroom is Has The Rain Picked Up Or Is Someone Just Typing Loud

I may have to actually log into LinkedIn solely so I can post this in its more natural habitat, but: hey, I've been at this gig for five years! Still think public opinion is fascinating and important!

"sing, O muse" is 100% the ancient Greek translation of "ok, buckle up, storytime"

Sharing our fantastic look at the twists and turns in Trump’s declining second term approval rating. cnn.it/3QOnrPX?cid=...

(i turn up on the red carpet wearing a gown made of crosstabs and explain that the cutouts represent differential nonresponse. nobody at the met gala is impressed)

There are six historical polls in the Roper archives containing the word "squirrel" and they are as follows

me (extremely optimistic voice): ok, start of the week, time for focus and uninterrupted productivity also me (extremely Yeah Yeah Yeahs voice): Food Lion gonna show me where the Sprite is

if you let my data go now, that'll be the end of it. but if you don't, i will email you, it will find you, and it will find you well.

when you're stuck on 3-DOWN/and you need some crosses there

legacy (via en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotus_W...)

the existence of nicens baby tuckoo suggests the existence of awful baby tuckoo, in this essay I will

Gallup, 1939: "Do you think Americans were happier and more contented at that time (during the horse and buggy days) than they are now?"

I've discovered a bird, the Fiery-throated Fruiteater, that looks like the embodiment of anxiety in every photo of it macaulaylibrary.org/asset/74014451

cannot tell you how dangerously close I have come on multiple occasions to ordering one of these for our office

men, what is preventing your survey methodology statement from looking like this (via: www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...)

I am begging somebody to make this movie

More fun stuff from the paper collection (if your idea of fun has been twisted by too many years of looking at polls) I’ve never seen a post debate poll that broke down results by hours. Different types of respondents, or narrative taking hold?

A day after the Supreme Court further gutted the Voting Rights Act, GOP-led states are eying changes to boost the GOP’s gerrymandering effort at the expense of voters of color, while voting rights groups are trying to limit the impact of the ruling on this year’s midterms. https://cnn.it/4um2aM0

this is what you get for moving into the Generic House