JOLTS data show dynamism of the labor market slipping further w/ lower quit/hiring/opening rates. An open question is whether declining dynamism is a function of structurally zero labor supply + aging. We may be more vulnerable to shocks tho a zero labor supply suggests a high bar for a rising UR

Four-byline alert: 🚨 “.. A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter.” www.ft.com/content/744e...

"there is no evidence of a reduction in job postings for industries or firms which have higher levels of AI adoption. The overall slowdown in national job postings...does not appear to be driven (even modestly) by AI." AI Adoption & Firms' Job-Posting Behavior by Liu and @dougwebberecon.bsky.social

Good morning! The Strait of Hormuz is still closed...

Harvard economist Claudia Goldin helped WNBA players win a nearly 400% pay raise.

Anyone need some this #Caturday?

Who is Apollos founder again?? 🤔🤔🙄

Houthi involvement means Red Sea disruption and much broader supply chain disruption is a more tangible possibility

Am I crazy, getting ahead of myself, or is the Iran war already shaping up to be systemically significant? Unless the US gets a military victory or clear concessions—not looking good—then Iran keeping Hormuz closed breaks the post-WWII US military dominance in the Gulf, with wide reverberations.

*USPS TO IMPOSE 8% SURCHARGE ON PACKAGES use the Iran war to undermine competitive posiiton of USPS and move to outsourcing...striaght out of Project 2025 playbook

New Dallas Fed energy survey data shows activity rose in Q1 with a positive outlook for future activity. They expect WTI to end the year ~$74/bbl alongside natural gas prices of $3.60mmbtu HH. The survey data were collected March 11-19 from 135 oil and gas firms. 1/n...

Firms needed $66/bbl on average to profitably drill new wells. Half of firms said the number of wells they plan to drill hasn't changed since the beginning of the year. Around 31% of large firms plan to drill more wells while 58% of small firms plan to drill more.

All jokes aside I think the constant headline manipulation has to eventually take a toll on market functioning…

The idea that strong productivity is disinflationary rests on the assumption that markets are competitive so gains are shared b/w firms & consumers/labor. Broad market concentration could see gains accrue more to firms. The late 90s boom saw the labor share of GDP rise, but we are hitting new lows

Good morning! The Strait of Hormuz is still closed...

It’s #Caturday and sproingy boxes that can be sat in and then ripped to shreds are much appreciated

The president who fired hundreds of thousands of federal workers is nonetheless spending far more every day than his predecessors. www.pbump.net/o/trump-like...

So what we’re gonna do is push to re-name all the Cesar Chavez schools and roads after Dolores Huerta. Call your city council people.

SCOOP: The Pentagon asked the White House today for more than *$200 billion* for Iran war supplemental, sources say Some in WH think Congress won't support b/c it's so big Will tee up giant battle in Congress My last story for WaPo: www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Powell didn't want to talk only about the War in Iran so they built in a structural productivity boom to focus on

Eugenio Suarez drove in the winning run to defeat the US & win Venezuela's first ever WBC championship. He had his citizenship interview canceled & he and his family live w/ constant uncertainty. He had nothing but gratitude & love last night even as the US men threw hissy fits...resilience

This game was the best 🇻🇪🔥

“Dilley is a hellhole. It’s a prison for babies, toddlers and children.” Elora Mukherjee of Columbia Law School shares the stories of several families detained at the Dilley Immigration Processing Center in Texas — including several featured in our reporting for @nbcnews. 1/

Some results from our Q1 Shadow Survey of Market Participants (SSMP). Nearly all respondents expect the Fed to hold rates steady w/ 1-2 dovish dissents. Messaging will be challenging--expectations for near term inflation are on the rise...1/5 @courtneyshupert.bsky.social @laurarosner.bsky.social

So much for the idea that Trump was just going to drop the DOJ investigation to get Warsh through—sure that’s the reasonable thing to do but he had the investigation initiated in the first place!

The fact that the World Baseball Classic has a permitted list of instruments is just one reason it is the best baseball you will ever watch. Have to say I am with 🇩🇴 tonight….

Ad hoc opaque decisions by BEA/BLS are termites eating at confidence in US data… “We are moving to more of a vague, uncertain, cloudy data quality environment that is going to make market participants less confident” said @courtneyshupert.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...

Troubling development--Core PCE inflation was hot in Jan at 0.36% m/m & 3.1% y/y BUT it would have been even hotter had BEA not shifted its source data in an ad hoc fashion to avoid showing an 11.9% m/m rise in legal fees shown in the CPI. The BEA acknowledged they made this choice...not a good look

HONDA SHARES FALL MORE THAN 5% AFTER ANNUAL LOSS GUIDANCE

America's status as the top destination for global talent is being shattered. The Administration only just published (!) what happened last summer to international student visa issuances. It's grim. From the indispensable @karinfischer.bsky.social @chronicle.com —> chronicle.com/newsletter/l...

We close our survey tonight, it is crazy out there but we value your views survey.alchemer.com/s3/8734805/M... @claudia-sahm.bsky.social @skandaamarnath.bsky.social @peark.es @econberger.bsky.social @chriswheeler.bsky.social @conorsen.bsky.social @econparker.bsky.social @gregdaco.bsky.social

The 2026 National Science Foundation budget is $8.75 Billion.

A significant divergence in inflation metrics is opening up w/ core PCE inflation firming but core CPI gradually moderating reflecting broader measures of health care in PCE & differing weights/sources. The diffusion index of prices rising vs falling confirms something broader than tariffs at play

Our Q1 Shadow Survey of Market Participants is in the field! How much will oil prices boost inflation? What will the Fed do? What do you expect from a Chair Warsh? Take a few minutes to share your views and you will get the complete results. Link to survey here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8734805/M...

Quality adjustment in smartphones/watches weighed on goods inflation even as apparel popped--what are people feeling IRL?

*Thom Tillis refuses to budge on blocking Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh confirmation No amount of meetings and KW charm alters the impasse since it is not about KW but the political bullying of the Fed. The DOJ must drop the investigation into the Fed's building renovation. Period.

He allegedly said "he needed help transferring data from a thumb drive “to his personal computer so that he could ‘sanitize’ the data before using it at [the company.] ... [and] that he expected to receive a presidential pardon ... ." www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Sunday was the high water mark for the year in the economic policy uncertainty index, highest since last June. Uncertainty does not map cleanly into eoncomic measures, but in a more general sense it makes it harder to make hiring/investment/spending decisions

"Decentralised infrastructures come with a built-in tendency toward fragmentation that works against the very network effects that give money its social value..."

AI is supposed to result in a productivity boom yet ALL my software providers are raising their prices by 10% or more...

To give you a sense of how big a deal this is: Summers’ PhD advisor made NBER what it is today

RT @WBCBaseball: GRAND SLAM Fernando Tatis Jr. has entered the chat in a BIG way! #WorldBaseballClassic

Our Q1 Shadow Survey of Market Participants is in the field! How much will oil prices boost inflation? What will the Fed do? What do you expect from a Chair Warsh? Take a few minutes to share your views and you will get the complete results. Link to survey here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8734805/M...

Growth in real disposable income was already flat in H2 2025 as hiring & wage growth slowed. The oil shock comes when inflation is already elevated leaving the Fed less room to maneuver as downside risks rise & higher gas prices crowd out much of the stimulus from tax cuts

Statements like this from Trump will make the oil market reaction *worse* No one who has any idea how the oil market works is buying it—all this does is make it seem like Trump believes it, which means the base case length of this disruption is growing ever-longer. Tick. Tock.

It’s going to be a hell of a week/year but can I just say that the San Antonio Spurs might just go all the way this year…

It was astonishing/infuriating how many gave DOGE legitimacy—“maybe technology can be used to make govt more efficient” of course it can, but any reasonably intelligent person understands such an effort requires patience, care & resources & Elon & his minions started from a point of bad faith