DOGE is about stealing data not efficiency: "DOGE operatives could edit and delete data in this system and potentially share it with private entities or foreign actors" So grateful to investigative journalists like @makenakelly.bsky.social & @telliotter.bsky.social

Tax cuts, AI + some reduction in interest rates may be enough to offset the fistfuls of policy sand being lobbed into the gears of the US economy, but 2/3 of growth comes from consumers, & with companies relying on reduced hiring to protect their margins the engine of hiring /spending is at risk

More trouble lies ahead on the US job front - FT column here from the always excellent @jc-econ.bsky.social. The Fed is right to worry about what is happening in employment www.ft.com/content/091c...

#BREAKING: Over dissents from Justices Sotomayor, Kagan & Jackson, #SCOTUS grants a stay in the Slaughter case (allowing President Trump to remove the last Dem member of the FTC), *and* grants certiorari "before judgment" to decide whether to formally overrule its 1935 ruling in Humphrey's Executor.

The man who gifted Musk his infamous chainsaw is now begging the US for a bailout…

More pro growth policies! *TRUMP EXPECTED TO ADD NEW $100,000 FEE FOR H-1B VISAS

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social asked a good Q in yesterday's Fed press conference--could tariffs be reducing labor demand as companies unable to pass them along thru higher prices to cautious consumers protect margins instead by reducing hiring & labor costs. That seems to be just what CEOs are reporting

May you live in placid times --JPow, 2025

JPow: We live life looking thru the windshield not the review mirror Fox boy

The Fed is widely expected to lower rates 25bps today. Much less clear is what the 2025 and 2026 dot plot distribution will show. Our survey of market participants last week revealed views are very mixed on the outlook for future cuts. @jc-econ.bsky.social @laurarosner.bsky.social

The importance of setting up the right incentive structures in designing policy doesn't get the attention it deserves--set up bad incentives, get bad results

BREAKING: The DC Circuit has *rejected* Trump's bid to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed board, allowing her to participate in tomorrow's interest-rate setting meeting. Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Inside the Fed, there is a preoccupation with doing whatever possible to avoid provoking Trump, which at times has meant complying with his wishes. That cautious approach is drawing scrutiny as its independence comes under threat www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social

idk if you've seen this south korean editorial that ran a few days ago. google translate version scorched my eyebrows www.hani.co.kr/arti/opinion...

Well would you look at that, looks like charges against Governor Cook were based on incomplete and misleading information... www.reuters.com/world/us/fed...

Consumers are just not feeling it...

Inflation is getting noisier--a pop in small Southern city rents boosted inflation, but software quality adjustment was a one off chunky decline. An environment of higher volatility and rotation in inflation drivers is captured by the PCE diffusion index which hit net 65% of prices rising thru July

Last call! We close up the survey tonight survey.alchemer.com/s3/8460596/M...

CBO's latest demographic projections feature MUCH lower population growth due to a big decrease in net immigration compared to the start of the year

Smoothing through the monthly volatility in the Producer Price Index we see the slope for goods inflation steepening on balance in 2025

What is notable about the judge's ruling is that is decisive about what is and is not cause as it relates to the Fed. It involves behavior in office and whether an official is executing their statutory duties. It does not involve conduct occurring before their time in office

Please share your views on the US economy and monetary policy through our Shadow Survey of Market Participants and in return we will send you the complete results with the views of >100k market participants. We close it up Thursday survey.alchemer.com/s3/8460596/M...

The benchmark revision to payrolls shows job gains slowed to an avg 70k per month aver the year ending in March 2025 from 196k the prior year suggesting the breakeven rate of NFP needed to hold the UR steady has fallen sharply in light of restrictions on immigration & may not even be positive

The first wave of the survey underpinning nonfarm payrolls has seen falling response rates, but in contrast to accusations the BLS has "failed to take corrective action" several targeted steps have kept 2nd & 3rd wave response rates at or above 90%--Gold standard data from dedicated public servants

Statement from the National Association of Business Economics in light of ongoing attacks on the quality and integrity of US data and BLS staff. It is a pretty transparent effort to reduce transparency and accountability, not increase it @nabe-econ.bsky.social nabe.com/common/Uploa...

Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago

POTUS has steered the U.S. towards a stagflationary ditch. He wants to hide the evidence, so he fired the BLS commissioner last month. His nominee, Dr. EJ Antoni, is unqualified & unfit, prompting the Senate HELP Committee to take a hard look. May go down. Plan B: replace Wiatrowski+ w/loyalists

A male cat is a Tom, a female cat is a QUEEN! Happy #Caturday

Bessent's op-ed criticizing the Fed's lack of independence is through the looking glass...

I don't know who needs to hear this, but crypto bubbles do not create jobs...

The Aug employment report shows the strain from growth negative policies--restrictive immigration means construction job losses, trade war means mfg job losses, budget cuts mean state & local govts and health care sputter as job engines. The economy is v close to a tipping point

Sen. Thom Tillis, a Senate Banking Republican, says he will not consider a replacement for Lisa Cook's seat on the Fed board unless/until a court rules her firing was legal. Suggests Pres. Trump will NOT be able to fill her seat unless that happens. From Politico: www.politico.com/live-updates...

Will the bond market eventually cry uncle? Are we getting there?

Today from the Coors Field scoreboard:

Every five years, the Fed Board in DC votes to approve the reappointment of all 12 regional Fed presidents. This is typically a routine matter. But if Trump has enough governors willing to do so, they could decline to reappoint the regional Fed presidents. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/b...

Happy #Caturday from these growing babies

Good summary and short bio with this excerpt: ‘[In] 2020 [Fed Governor Lisa] Cook told NPR that she still has a “scar where hair won’t grow in my eyebrow and a scar on my leg from having been beaten during that period, during the period of desegregation.” ‘

Some assume Gov Cook's guilt b/c she did not publicly deny the allegations. Serious people don't stage careful legal defense by tweet...but today's filings include such denials if you need to scratch that itch...also: "That the President says he has found a 'cause' does not magically make it so."

Abbe Lowell and I represent CDC Director #SusanMonarez. Contrary to govt statements, Dr. Monarez has neither resigned nor yet been fired. She will not resign. We have issued the following statement:

IP: “.. If Trump’s effort to remove Lisa Cook for cause succeeds, and perhaps even if it doesn’t, this week will go down as one of the most consequential for financial markets in decades.” @wsj.com @opinion.bloomberg.com www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

We are witnessing truly the last stand of Fed independence and financial markets are asleep...what gives? *TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REVIEWING OPTIONS TO INFLUENCE FED REGIONAL BANKS *TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AIMS TO SCRUTINIZE FED PRESIDENT SELECTION

Dear journalists: The President has not fired Lisa Cook. The President is *trying* to illegally fire her. Your words shape people’s reality. Please be accurate in your reporting.

All things considered, you have to look far and wide to find an expert who believes that attacking the Fed in this fashion will lead to good outcomes for the economy. Biggest risk here is the inflation trouble Trump is already stoking with his tariffs gets even worse amid Fed credibility fears.

Lisa D. Cook, Member, Federal Reserve Board of Governors “President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”

Trump posts a letter stating that he is removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook

"Twenty-three Democratic attorneys general now gather on near-daily Zoom calls at 8 AM Pacific, which means the East Coast officials are already on their third coffee. They divide responsibilities and share templates for lawsuits they’ve been drafting since last spring."

Long before she joined the Fed, Lisa Cook stood out in a field dominated by white men. She talked about how her experience with racism informed her approach to economics. Now, she is Trump’s latest target in his effort to exert more control over the central bank. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/23/b...

A reminder: Dr. Cook's mortgages are not the real issue. The threat to US macro stability is the clear intention of the Trump Admin to influence the composition of the FOMC in defiance of the structures designed to insulate the institution from such influence. Thank you for coming to my TED talk

Great post from Acting Census Director @ronjarmin.bsky.social about Census's long experience learning how best to combine survey, administrative, & private data to improve efficiency and reliability & about directions for future innovation. www.census.gov/newsroom/blo...

You guys. The Lisa Cook story isn’t about her mortgages. Please please please stop being so credulous.