The White House is suggesting October CPI and employment reports will be skipped entirely. That has been our assumption. Collecting the CPI and HH survey are simply infeasible. Oct NFP can be collected and folded into the Nov report which almost surely will also be delayed by a week or more...1/2

aaaaand we are back to private sector job losses in ADP, 4-wk avg loss of 11k in the week ending Oct 25 implying a sharp deterioration at the end of the month given the 42k monthly gain for October. This new data series is basically averaging zero net private sector job creation since August

New evidence on how ICE is affecting student learning https://drive.google.com/file/d/1erU5Oe0vJYdVjuqQi4sfhUGxS0BGjWl8/view?usp=drivesdk

So this “deal” essentially guarantees ACA subsidies expire which offsets roughly a third of household tax cuts due in Q1

It’s #Caturday! And Axl is looking to the future…

Is Wordle part of the resistance?

The scam economy, surely this portends a productivity boom? 🤔

ADP for Oct showed private sector hiring of 42k after a decline of 29k jobs in Sept, but the 3m avg is barely positive at 3k and it is increasingly clear smaller firms are bearing the brunt of policy chaos. Now add in federal layoffs not captured in ADP data and it is no surprise voters are unhappy

The latest, 11pm: —Prop 50 wins —VA Dems flip Gov, LG, AG; & gain in House —Dems win NJ-Gov —Mamdani wins —PA Dems win supreme court —ME vote-restricting measure loses —Krasner & Bragg win —JD's half-brother loses —GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices + Dem are leading to flip so many local offices.

We should be cautious in interpreting claims filings right now, several hundred thousand people have been fired from the federal govt but most will be ineligible for UI because layoffs were either structured as voluntary deferred resignations (Fork in the Road) or for cause (provisional workers)

I went to the Treasury website to read a recent speech and was greeted with this…the US govt has become an embarrassment

Feliz Día de los Muertos from the *42nd annual* Viva la Vida Fest in Downtown ATX #nativenotimmigrant

This is some good ass baseball

The K was on full display in this week’s earnings calls w/ Amazon beating expectations due to cloud computing (while announcing layoffs) & Chipotle & Shake Shack missing as their young adult customers struggle with renewed student loan payments, rising job insecurity and compressed purchasing power

If the Fed waits until jobless claims spike to move to a neutral policy stance, has it not by definition waited too long?

#NationalCatDay?! Stevie thinks that’s every day

Powell is simply incorrect that Indeed job postings show no further decline in labor demand--they have continued dropping steadily through last week (Oct 24)

Powell notes "strongly differing views" and notes a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion, "far from it"

Why would you not just walk Ohtani every time??

“That's like an existential threat for congressional power…How do you negotiate a longer-term spending deal…when you don't believe the executive branch is going to implement whatever choices it is that you put into that law?" Via Reuters

It's hard to argue that tariffs pressure is materially less than expected--core goods inflation ex autos is running nearly half the pace of the pandemic over the past 6m, but we have a significant offset from cooling rent inflation

Core inflation a little better than expected at 0.23% m/m in the delayed Sept release, the bigger picture is that tariff pass through to goods prices continues and is offsetting moderation in services inflation led by housing keeping inflation stuck at 3.0% for now

Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) webinar this Thursday featuring three former commissioners will: - provide updates, - describe strategies, & - offer a menu of concrete ways for you to engage with Friends of BLS. All are welcome. Register at link. #EconSky #NumbersDay #PolicySky

I am old enough to remember when even fully vetted and authorized construction projects that went over budget were viewed as grounds for dismissal of high level officials...

Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown. Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).

Conflicting signals of a booming stock market & a labor market losing steam can be partly reconciled by small & mid-size firms getting hit harder by tariffs & other policy shocks. Measures of small biz uncertainty are still near all time highs and ADP shows small firms losing steam fastest

On #NoKings Day I present the Dept of Education spending for fiscal year 2025--a more than $230 *BILLION* dollar cut in spending totally unauthorized by Congress in just eight months

BREAKING from PP We found immigration agents have held more than 170 *citizens* The govt doesn't track citizens held. So we did. We tallied: Nearly 20 kids, two w/ cancer More than 20 citizens held for day or more, incommunicado www.propublica.org/article/immi... by @nicolefoy.bsky.social

A little data for the data hungry--the Indeed job postings index dropped 2 points b/2 the Sept employment week & the end of last week suggesting an ongoing loss in momentum in labor demand. Texas & Florida saw the largest drops after being outperformers in the slowdown in recent months

Speaker Johnson, you ready to swear me in?

Rockstar panel of former Fed officials at NABE talking about the importance of central bank independence, there are no examples of political intervention ending well anywhere

A refreshingly frank discussion at NABE on the disruption to construction & agriculture from immigration policy, the chilling effect of raids on willingness to show up to work is a real, material constraint

JPow’s advice to economists: keep your heads up, these are times when people are questioning expertise but your work it’s important and he values & supports it…gets another standing O 😭❤️

Chair Powell gets a grateful standing O receiving NABE’s Adam Smith Award as he strongly hints at an Oct rate cut and and end to QT “in coming months” @nabe-econ.bsky.social

In the last 70 years, federal jobs fell from 4.5% of all employment to below 2%. Civil servants aren't what's driving government debt, and firing them won't address it.

Absolutely fangirling at NABE 2025 Powerhouse panel discussion of currency wars and the future of the dollar. The takeaway? The termites are munching away at the foundation… Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, Catherine Mann

The fiscal outlook discussion at the @nabe-econ.bsky.social annual meeting is not exactly uplifting. Sorry y’all but AI driven productivity cannot plausibly fix the problem, hope for bipartisan approaches seem remote at best, immigration policy hurts, and we keep going until the market cries uncle…

Per CDC source: At internal leadership meeting this afternoon, it was shared that 1,257 people were RIF'd at CDC. Number may not be final. Apparently, chief of staff was unaware that RIFs were going to occur so not clear who is making decisions. (Short 🧵)

There are reports that the *entire* office of special education at the US Dept of Education has been cut. These hardworking folks ensure kids with disabilities get equal access to a quality education. America’s children deserve better than this.

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

Choose your fighter

🙏🏼 for Dolly ❤️

at this point you have to acknowledge that there is no way that these guys don't try to mess with the 2026 midterms. there is absolutely no respect for the legitimacy of the opposition

People are talking about the choice of Bad Bunny for the Super Bowl halftime show as an appeal to an international audience but here’s some data—his 2022 tour was the highest grossing tour in *North America*, Latinos are 20% of the US population, Benito is an American and Latin music is just good

May you find all the audacity and resolve of a 10lb kitten…and happy #Caturday

*SUPREME COURT REFUSES TO LET TRUMP IMMEDIATELY OUST FED'S COOK

Whelp! ADP did a preliminary benchmark to the QCEW and we are already seeing private job losses in August & September...

The Damage Done: @marianneguenot.bsky.social tells the story of clinical trials derailed by the administration's reckless science policy, across kidney disease, HIV, Alzheimer's disease, and cancer. Years of work and money thrown away, at times just short of a cure. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

This fever dream against diversity is just wildly at odds with the reality of the modern US labor market that all employers, including the military must compete for talent in

Todays data suggest the labor market is cooling pretty rapidly despite low layoffs and unemployment. The hiring rate hit a new cycle low alongside a decline in quits suggesting it is weak demand rather than limited supply and consumers are reporting a lack of job opportunities