Make that three baby! #GoSpursGo

“Hard times test us, but one thing stays true: hold tight to the good, surround yourself with the real, and never forget the strength in your own heart.” “The real rebellion isn’t rage, it’s compassion without a costume and curiosity without ego.” 🙏🌮

*TRUMP: ANYONE THAT DISAGREES WITH ME WILL NEVER BE FED CHAIRMAN Great message for global markets/investors in dollar assets...

Whoomp there is is! You knew this was coming…

1 - the exec branch can't decline to spend $ Congress appropriated 2- the fed govt can't use federal $ to extort states over policy/political disagreements 3-the fed govt can't use federal $ to impose conditions unrelated to the funding program 4-the fed govt can't use federal $ to coerce states

The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence shows December assessments of current conditions below the April dip--and the less cyclical expectations component seems to be trending lower after being resilient in the pandemic, it is now in the region of the slow grinding recovery from the GFC

Booming Q3 GDP should suggest some stabilization in the labor market is around the corner, but consumers in December were not seeing it--the Conference Board labor differential shows conditions still deteriorating (another chart illustrating this ain't no late 90s boom for the broader economy)

Happy #Caturday holiday edition

🚨USE THE CONFERENCE BOARD MEASURE OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE! IGNORE MICHIGAN--DO NOT RUN AWAY WITH GRANDIOSE INTERPRETATIONS OF THE WORLD BASED ON UMICH!🚨

UMich sentiment still near all time lows--but if you think it is problematic b/c of phone surveys, etc we always have Conference Board and it shows a much less dramatic but still fairly bearish state of consumer confidence, in part because a cooling labor market raises anxiety @ income prospects

QCEW data through Q2 suggest that Powell's estimate of a 60k upward bias on payrolls may be conservative--the 12m run rate of hiring through June is 35k in QCEW vs 127k in NFP

Private health insurance premiums for our relatively young and healthy employees are rising 13-14% for 2026

Degradation of public statistics is driven so far by underfunding & not manipulation of data--agencies are operating w/ skeleton crews so less data collection & leadership on what methodological assumptions to make w/ current challenges & how to communicate them. Underfunding *IS* a policy choice

This inflation data is a big mess with clear downward bias from methodological assumptions by BLS (essentially assuming zero inflation in Oct)

Labor markets weakness is all about uncertainty, not AI. www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...

Based on the BLS FAQ it seems like Nov will be unbiased except for OER which will be biased downward due to assuming no change in Oct? The methodology builds the index as a price relative off an Oct index level that is assuming no price change? @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social

BREAKING: Mike Johnson just said he won't call a vote this year to extend enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act — effectively guaranteeing they will expire at the end of this month.

The US is losing blue-collar jobs for the first time since the pandemic—year-on-year job losses have hit 65k as manufacturing, transportation, & mining industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction has nearly zeroed out

Shout out to the 1.1mn men who took paternity leave so far in 2025, up from 843k last year with one month to go in the year. Some good things are happening too! h/t @laurarosner.bsky.social

A key indicator that labor demand is running weaker than labor supply is wage growth--average hourly earnings joined other indicators showing a cooling. AHE slowed to 3.5% y/y in Nov, the slowest pace since the pandemic and down from 4.2% y/y a year ago. The Fed's Dec cut is validated by the data

Overall job creation has ground to a halt w/o accounting for any upward bias from the benchmark revisions--some of the public sector weakness won't repeat but we are not really seeing much broadening out in labor demand yet. Private job creation is pretty much just health care jobs

Merriam-Webster’s human editors have chosen ‘slop’ as the 2025 Word of the Year.

CNBC headline is wildly misleading--quote from the WSJ interview on Fed Chair horse race is as follows: “I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both—I think the two Kevins are great. I think there are a couple of other people that are great.”

*SOME ORACLE DATA CENTERS FOR OPENAI DELAYED TO 2028 FROM 2027 *ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES Could become a common theme--you can't build w/o workers. Construction workers are mostly immigrants. Tariffs also increase materials costs...hard to have your cake & eat it too

The Business Roundtable survey of large company CEOs for Q4 shows another moderate gain in the outlook and capex plans, but while the employment plans index ticked up it remains in contractionary territory, a historic gap and a stark contrast to the tech boom of the 90s

The FOMC's bullish shift in expectations for economic growth in 2026 are pretty staggering! The distribution appears to have shifted up across the board with the median increasing from 1.8% to 2.3%.

Whew that FOMC forecast is as Goldilocks as it gets--a world with no jobs and all productivity...falling inflation, unemployment & rates. Cheers! 🥂

Fed to world

Team MPP in NYC 🎄🔥 @courtneyshupert.bsky.social @laurarosner.bsky.social

About 80% of the 108 respondents to our December Shadow Survey expect a 25bp cut in the federal funds rate at this week's Fed meeting. Most also expect that decision to come with a healthy dose of mostly hawkish dissents Do you expect any FOMC voters to dissent at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting?

MacKenzie Scott: *donates $50M every 10 hours° Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir: "I want to see people hang"

It’s #Caturday y’all and Stevie thinks we can all use a little chill

The pandemic burst in goods spending is firmly in the rearview mirror and, aided by tariffs and very high car prices, the goods share of the consumer wallet is back on a downtrend

Market-based core inflation has settled a good 1/2pp above target, now the Fed is faced with the same tough decision it had when inflation was stable below target--how hard do you press to get to 2% vs. letting the labor market breathe? No risk free choices as JPow says @laurarosner.bsky.social

Remember: Trump or Russian propagandists might say otherwise, but Putin is not winning, and the Ukrainians are not losing.

Last call for our Shadow Survey! We close it up tonight. Provide your views & you will get a complete set of results to ponder ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Looking at @peark.es @conorsen.bsky.social @skandaamarnath.bsky.social @claudia-sahm.bsky.social... survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

Initial claims are subject to a big dose of noise around Thanksgiving, but stepping back there are real/growing tensions in layoff indicators. Are ineligible groups (contract workers, some immigrants, sole proprietors & gig workers) playing a bigger role? Are severance packages longer than usual?

Our December Shadow Survey is in the field and we are interested in hearing your views on monetary policy, markets and the economy! We have shortened the survey & if you take time to answer we will give you a complete set of results on Friday. Link here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

Giving children tiny little bank accounts instead of food, education & health care so they can feel like they are "part of the American Dream"....🤔

ADP shows private hiring has essentially ground to a halt overall in recent months led by job losses among small firms

NEW: Reports of DOGE’s death aren’t highly exaggerated, they’re wrong. Follow @makenakelly.bsky.social and @telliotter.bsky.social on a voyage into the federal agencies where all your favorite young engineers are burrowed in ”like ticks.”

Respondents to the ISM Mfg survey draw a straight line from tariffs to reduced hiring...

Our December Shadow Survey is in the field and we are interested in hearing your views on monetary policy, markets and the economy! We have shortened the survey & if you take time to answer we will give you a complete set of results on Friday. Link here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

She was first in her family to go to college. She’d been in the U.S. since she was seven. They grabbed at the airport on her way to surprise her family for thanksgiving. They put her in shackles. Her ankles, her arms, and her waist. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/u...

Consumer confidence down in Nov overall but is that a Mamdani effect in the <35 crowd?

Monthly volatility in nominal retail sales + auto sales has stepped up this year (left) reflecting tariffs/tax credits/seasonal adj challenges, but nominal spending growth is steady y/y (right) implying a step down in real given pick up in prices & auto demand is cooling--moderate trend + volatility

Please join us shortly for: The supply side of inflation: How shocks affect the outlook www.brookings.edu/events/the-s...