As a new Fed Chair casts doubt on offical statistics after the Aministration drastically cut their funding, it is worth remembering how and why we created federal statistics agencies in the first place...they reduce scope for gaslighting the public www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf...

We *LOVED* technology in the 90s b/c it was making our lives better AND our wages and opportunities were booming, simply not the envionement we are in. Is that around the corner? That is decidedly not what companies are saying in their earnings reports H/T @courtneyshupert.bsky.social

The latest on Trump’s immigration actions.

NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com

BLS response rate issues have made the household survey data noisier and in 2025 they quietly changed the precision thresholds. A recent GAO report noted a 0.3pp change in the unemployment rate is now required to count as statistically significant, up from 0.2pp. files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-...

Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost. Who—or what—becomes the “shadow Fed Chair” when the real one won’t talk? My latest: stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/will-the-s...

Death rate in ICE immigrant detention centers more than doubles under Trump, w/ @kristinacooke.bsky.social @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social www.reuters.com/legal/govern...

NEW: Multiple webpages on the Census Bureau's website are unavailable to the public more than a week after the Trump administration issued a ban on "noise infusion," one of the bureau's main ways of protecting people's privacy when it releases statistics

From former U.S. Census Chief Scientist John Abowd on LinkedIn, what Census data products are affected by Commerce's new policy? A devastating set of answers including all ACS Public Use Micro Samples www.linkedin.com/posts/john-a...

More evidence of wage growth decelerating emerging today, from @atlantafed.org. Within-worker, over-the-year median wage growth rate decelerated to 3.5% in May from 3.6% in April, continuing the trend of weakening. www.atlantafed.org/research-and...

Economists and PMs! Our Q2 survey is live and asks fun questions like: how *SHOULD* Fed communication and policy strategy change under Chair Warsh vs how *WILL* it change? Give us your views and you will receive a copy of the full results tomorrow, ahead of the June FOMC mtg! lnkd.in/g58TKf8x

The Q2 survey is a fun one--how *SHOULD* Fed communication/policy strategy change w/ the Warsh Fed, how *WILL* it change? Give us your views and you will receive a opy of the full results this Friday ahead of the June FOMC meeting. Copy to take the survey here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8870674/M...

The Iran War is lowering real wages: the year-over-year 4.3% inflation outpaced the 3.4% wage growth, leaving American workers worse off.

Still a brutal time for me and all the other US caffeine addicts—coffee prices are up 18% over the last year and 56% since 2020

There is a common market assumption that Warsh will pivot to being an independent centrist, and yet these two guys are radical and their role in part would seem to undermine the input and influence of Fed staff...this highly unusual move suggests he is serious about "regime change"

Consumer purchasing power taking a hit from the war in Iran and other various and sundry self inflicted supply shocks. For now consumers are doing a lot of smoothing but the boost from tax cuts was gobbled up and then some

Thanks @marketplace.org for having me on yesterday to to talk about why Fed communication is important! Markets function better when FOMC officials can openly share how new data and risks are impacting the likely path for policy, especially when there is uncertainty around the outlook.

Warsh is walking into a hawkish hornets nest

PADD 5 (West Coast) distillate inventories getting into danger territory. PADD 2 (Upper Midwest) also stressed. National inventories are historically low despite totally normal USGC inventories...those are waiting for export.

Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as @federalreserve.gov Governor. Confirmation as Chair likely tomorrow.

In today’s post, the authors share that our latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit finds that while student loan balances remained unchanged in Q1 2026, the share of student loan balances past due increased, neared pre-pandemic levels at just over 10%. nyfed.org/433SNF2

“Kevin Warsh is the dog who caught the car. I say that with great affection and sympathy.” My column dispatch from Warsh’s intellectual home: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

April inflation coming in hot on surging food and energy prices, core inflation was a little firm but not a huge surprise. Going to make it hard for Warsh to maintain an easing bias given solid labor market indicators and a core PCE translation that suggests continued acceleration

Prominent WSJ coverage of important research on negative impact of deportations on other workers by @chloeneast.bsky.social and Elizabeth Cox, both at @colorado.edu. www.nber.org/papers/w35129

Prices of bags, containers, cups and utensils have all soared, sparking fears of shortages as manufacturers struggle to source packaging for products such as instant noodles, beverages and cosmetics. www.ft.com/content/3674...

This was added today to the HuffPost’s story about the illegal closure of the Immigration Detention Ombudsman’s office. It’s an easily disprovable lie. Check it out:

It's a very odd feeling to read that the cost of your firing was $20 billion to the US economy. Studies like this are so important. It's hard to put a value on a public service. Trustworthy economic data is vital to so much economic activity in a $29 trillion economy. Worth your time to read.

NY Fed: "We find that, since 2023, wealth has increased the most for high-income households, while inflation has risen the most for low-income households, with both factors helping explain the fact that real retail spending rose the most for high-income households."

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

The U.S. is on track to lose more immigrants than it gains in 2026. It could impact taxes, disrupt labor markets and more.

We got our hands on internal ICE records that show how widespread use of force, like punches, kicks, takedown maneuvers, restraint holds, and less-lethal weapons such as Tasers and pepper spray in detention centers has grown wapo.st/4tdgBRA (1/)

Love employment research and policy? We do too! @upjohninstitute.bsky.social is hiring a full-time research analyst. Our current RAs' degrees range from BA to PhD, so give the opening a look. #econ_ra #EconSky #sociology #policysky

New working paper on the California Fast-Food minimum wage (will come out as NBER WP soon but posting now). Big increase in wages. Big drop in separations. Little change in jobs. (Bonus: sheds light on QWI vs QCEW measurement of jobs.)

In explaining their dissents this week, Kashkari and Hammack cite resurgent inflation risks stemming from the Iran War. Kashkari (below) says a "series" of hikes might be needed if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, "even at the risk of further weakness to the labor market."

ExxonMobil and Chevron are defying calls from the Trump White House to increase oil production as prices soar because of the Iran war. "The crisis has not prompted any change to any of our plans." www.ft.com/content/2a02...

The BEA switched to PPI legal services for estimating PCE legal services in Mar like they did in Jan. In Feb they used CPI legal services which is the official source data. The consistency across Jan/Mar is reassuring because it shows they are treating outliers in a symmetric fashion. However...

This is the first ever party-line vote for a Fed chair out of committee. Until 2020, party-line votes for any Fed nominees were unusual. The previous two Fed chair votes (both Powell) were approved on votes of 22-1 and 23-1.

h/t to @nicktimiraos.bsky.social "Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) told reporters Monday night that he understood why Fed Chair Jerome Powell would want to continue to serve on the central bank's board for a little while after his term as chair expires May 15."

This week’s Fed meeting is set to be Powell's last as chair. But the wait and see policy path that he carved out amid resurgent inflation risks is likely to stay intact long after he leaves the top job. That means rate cuts may be on an extended hold www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/b... @nytimes.com

The BEA produces a regional price parity index to compare costs across states, and it's remarkable that Texas has handled all of its post-2019 growth while becoming *cheaper* relative to the US overall Meanwhile, Florida's growth has given it the highest relative cost increase

I wasn't familiar with the base rates here so I went and looked it up. It was 315 total. The Midwest number was 121. For context, there were 599 farm bankruptcies nationwide in 2019 (the most recent annual peak). That's compared to a tad less than 1.9mm US farms.

I guess it's fine though because the US is a net energy exporter, right? www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

Kevin Warsh is leaning on the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Inflation measure (b/c it’s going down) at a time when the Dallas Fed itself is warning that it maybe misleading because it is calibrated to an era of low inflation that we are no longer in www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Crucially, Tillis has not yet spoken today about whether he will now allow Warsh's confirmation to proceed. Powell, meanwhile, has reason to be skeptical that the legal threats against him and the institution are well and truly over, keeping alive the prospects that he stays on as a governor

*PIRRO SAYS SHE'S CLOSING POWELL PROBE INTO FED BUILDING COSTS

The Dallas Fed conducted a special flash survey of energy companies from April 15-20. Firms expect international flows to have normalized before the end of the year but expect additional disruptions in the next 5 years.

Official data is in today, and US solar power generation continues to grow rapidly, up 25% compared to this time last year!

I recently had the pleasure of joining BBC's World Business Report to recap the state of the US economy. We discussed Kevin Warsh's hearing before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and what that means for near term Fed policy. www.bbc.com/audio/play/p...

Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights to save fuel as prices soar www.ft.com/content/bd0e...

The propsective Fed Chair refuses to say whether cutting interest rates 250bps would stimulate the economy and boost inflation