BLS clarifies that they will NOT do a one-off change of their rent/OER methodology in April, as their updated FAQ yesterday seemed to imply. h/t Omair Sharif, who I think was the first to pin them down on this. #EconSky #NumbersDay

BLS decision on housing locks in a downward bias by removing a month of inflation--this is how data quality erode. Budget cuts may have the agency running scared & erring on the side of methodologies that keep inflation low instead of rigorous best practices www.bls.gov/cpi/addition...

Labor markets weakness is all about uncertainty, not AI. www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...

US coffee bean prices continue to hit new highs in inflation data released today, up 19% over the last year and 47% since pre-COVID

*SOME ORACLE DATA CENTERS FOR OPENAI DELAYED TO 2028 FROM 2027 *ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES Could become a common theme--you can't build w/o workers. Construction workers are mostly immigrants. Tariffs also increase materials costs...hard to have your cake & eat it too

Worth highlighting: our survey correctly picked up the likelihood of 1 dovish and 2 hawkish dissents for the December FOMC meeting. It's a helpful tool for measuring market sentiment and the economic outlook.

In a normal administration, this would be a career-ending, weeks-long scandal

Good news. Good to see it unanimous.

The FOMC's bullish shift in expectations for economic growth in 2026 are pretty staggering! The distribution appears to have shifted up across the board with the median increasing from 1.8% to 2.3%.

Team MPP in NYC 🎄🔥 @courtneyshupert.bsky.social @laurarosner.bsky.social

"Bond investors have told the US Treasury they are concerned about Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as Federal Reserve chair, worrying he will cut interest rates aggressively to please President Donald Trump." @financialtimes.com #finsky #econsky #fed www.ft.com/content/ad4b...

The Trump admin has paused all immigration and naturalization processes for people from one of the 19 travel ban countries; including Cuba and Venezuela. Even people who fully passed the citizenship exam are having their cases put on hold, just inches from the finish line.

New ICE data available today prove that DHS lied in response to my report last week, showing that over 70% of people booked into ICE custody had no criminal convictions, and just 5% had violent criminal convictions. DHS will lie about anything... www.cato.org/blog/new-dat...

(Bloomberg) -- Costco joined a fast-growing list of businesses suing the Trump administration to ensure eligibility for refunds if the US Supreme Court strikes down the president’s signature global tariffs policy. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Our December Shadow Survey is in the field and we are interested in hearing your views on monetary policy, markets and the economy! We have shortened the survey & if you take time to answer we will give you a complete set of results on Friday. Link here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...

ISM manufacturing activity continued to contract for the 9th straight month with both new orders and employment declining 2pp in November. Comments show concerns about tariffs and general uncertainty:

Nov Beige Book: "Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs." This is what I've observed in earnings calls- firms are managing headcount down without layoffs.

THREAD: Judge Ellis is the first federal judge to review extensive body cam video of DHS's actions in Chicago. She finds that DHS *repeatedly* misled the public and made claims that were disproven by agents' own videos. I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.

New international student enrolment drops 17% at US universities. Foreign students make up about 6% of total US enrollment and contributed $55bn (£41bn) to the economy, according to 2024 figures from the commerce department. www.yahoo.com/news/article...

Pretty well established finding that immigration raids of workplaces reduce student test performance for nearby schools, including for non-vulnerable students. The general DHS surge appears to be doing the same for student performance. www.nber.org/papers/w34452

Always great to chat with @npr.org and hear Marketplace's #jobsday coverage. I enjoyed discussing response rates, revisions and what we learned about the labor market in September. www.marketplace.org/episode/2025...

Hey, #EconSky! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social! bsky.app/profile/usbl...

This is propaganda and the fact it is associated with the economics profession is abhorrent. BLS is staffed by dedicated public servants who only report the data, whoever is running the DOL Twitter account is something else entirely.

So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy. It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.

Yes! Quite a jump in response rates, this is the highest response rate for first estimates in about 6 years (since late 2019)

The December decision is between a hawkish cut or a dovish pause. But risk management matters for the FOMC. 4.44% is above the FOMC's long-run estimate of 4.2% and the unemployment rate keeps ticking up. The average m/m change in the unemployment rate is +0.11pp/month over the last three months.

The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral

‼️As expected, we won't ever get complete data on the labor market from the BLS for the month of October due to the government shutdown, including the key statistical indicator for unemployment. Nov data now scheduled for 12/16, after the Dec FOMC mtg ‼️ #bls #fomc #data

The USDA sent an email to grocery stores telling them they are prohibited from offering special discounts to customers affected by the SNAP funding lapse. I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email

Great piece from @shadib.bsky.social and @minnpost.bsky.social! "Government data is really the gold standard for inflation and it’s needed for markets to function,” said Courtney Shupert, economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. www.minnpost.com/economy/2025...

Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown. Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).

“We found over 35 cases in which the judges have specifically said what the government is providing…false information. It might be intentionally false information, including false sworn declarations time and again," says Ryan Goodman, law professor at New York University.

> @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Hi, I'm the ProPublica reporter who's been tracking an unusual stat: U.S. citizens grabbed by immigration agents. I did it because the government isn’t. This is what I found.

New federal data has revealed a 19% year-on-year decline in international students entering the US in August 2025, including a 45% drop from India, America’s largest sending country. thepienews.com/internationa...

Great piece on academic shero labor economist Claudua Goldin picking WNBA advising as a post-Nobel venture. She estimates players should earn 1/3 of what NBA men earn (It’s currently 1/80)

On #NoKings Day I present the Dept of Education spending for fiscal year 2025--a more than $230 *BILLION* dollar cut in spending totally unauthorized by Congress in just eight months

“.. It’s to the point now where .. I could lose everything ... Being a small business owner isn’t worth it when your country turns on you,” said Jared Hendricks, the CEO of Village Lighting, a small business selling Christmas products. @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/h...

Three senior Republican appropriators agree it doesn't make any sense for Democrats to agree to a government funding deal unless Trump actually adheres to the deal. The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.

@albertocavallo.bsky.social's website is worth bookmarking

Very insightful session at NABE’s annual meeting on the “termites” eroding the value of the USD. H/t to @jc-econ.bsky.social for moderating an amazing discussion with Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, and Carmen Reinhart @nabe-econ.bsky.social #NABE #econsky #finsky

The Friends of BLS steering committee is sponsoring a member webinar noon to 1pm ET Thurs, Oct 23. We aim to build nonpartisan support for a strong BLS & need your perspectives & energy. Former Commissioners @ericagroshen.bsky.social, William Beach, & @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social will... #EconSky

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

It is sad and very odd to have a Thursday morning without UI claims data. During previous government shutdowns we at least got this data even if the monthly jobs report was delayed! Weekly, administrative data we've had for years just stopped at a pivotal time for the labor market.

*SUPREME COURT REFUSES TO LET TRUMP IMMEDIATELY OUST FED'S COOK

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social asked a good Q in yesterday's Fed press conference--could tariffs be reducing labor demand as companies unable to pass them along thru higher prices to cautious consumers protect margins instead by reducing hiring & labor costs. That seems to be just what CEOs are reporting

The Fed is widely expected to lower rates 25bps today. Much less clear is what the 2025 and 2026 dot plot distribution will show. Our survey of market participants last week revealed views are very mixed on the outlook for future cuts. @jc-econ.bsky.social @laurarosner.bsky.social

The importance of setting up the right incentive structures in designing policy doesn't get the attention it deserves--set up bad incentives, get bad results

Well would you look at that, looks like charges against Governor Cook were based on incomplete and misleading information... www.reuters.com/world/us/fed...