Some results from our Q1 Shadow Survey of Market Participants (SSMP). Nearly all respondents expect the Fed to hold rates steady w/ 1-2 dovish dissents. Messaging will be challenging--expectations for near term inflation are on the rise...1/5 @courtneyshupert.bsky.social @laurarosner.bsky.social

I have had COUNTLESS convos where reporters ask me “okay but Trump hasn’t actually deported as many people as Biden (or Obama), right?” and what I try to stress in response is “the real story is how hard it is, and getting harder, for us even to know.” Must-read. apnews.com/article/trum...

Many thanks to @bencasselman.bsky.social for covering the data details on why we got a weaker than expected m/m PCE reading this morning. BEA made ad hoc changes to the source data in Jan lowering the print.

From the other site...

The wedge between core readings of BEA and BLS measures of inflation continues- it would have been even more disparate in Jan absent abrupt methodological changes that lowered the m/m % chg in PCE today

Troubling development--Core PCE inflation was hot in Jan at 0.36% m/m & 3.1% y/y BUT it would have been even hotter had BEA not shifted its source data in an ad hoc fashion to avoid showing an 11.9% m/m rise in legal fees shown in the CPI. The BEA acknowledged they made this choice...not a good look

“.. A wave of layoffs across U.S. supply chains — from EV battery plants and auto parts factories to warehouses and rail terminals — has affected nearly 4,000 workers in recent weeks ..” @scottlincicome.bsky.social www.freightwaves.com/news/supply-...

Intermeeting rate cuts are rare & only used under extreme duress. Markets are focused on Iran and the energy price shock translation into headline inflation; fewer rate cuts are priced in now. In March 2022 when global oil prices spiked in response to Russia/Ukraine the FOMC was still hiking rates!

📣Economists and PMs! Want to know what other market participants are expecting for inflation given Iran/energy shock? What will the FOMC say next week? When will Warsh be confirmed? Will Powell leave? Take our survey! We send the results to all who answer! survey.alchemer.com/s3/8734805/M...

*Thom Tillis refuses to budge on blocking Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh confirmation No amount of meetings and KW charm alters the impasse since it is not about KW but the political bullying of the Fed. The DOJ must drop the investigation into the Fed's building renovation. Period.

Here's my Blooski statement that Sen. Kennedy calls hyperbolic. I will defend natural law until the day I die, Senator. People's rights come from their humanity, not their government. If ordered to act unethically, you should always refuse. Do Republicans now disagree?

Racial profiling is the most important immigration policy in the last year. We went from having effectively no problem with this at all in January 2025 to over 2,000 people per week being arrested for no reason (and that number excludes all the US citizens targeted)

Our Q1 Shadow Survey of Market Participants is in the field! How much will oil prices boost inflation? What will the Fed do? What do you expect from a Chair Warsh? Take a few minutes to share your views and you will get the complete results. Link to survey here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8734805/M...

Growth in real disposable income was already flat in H2 2025 as hiring & wage growth slowed. The oil shock comes when inflation is already elevated leaving the Fed less room to maneuver as downside risks rise & higher gas prices crowd out much of the stimulus from tax cuts

Since April 2025, the US labor market has moved sideways. If you take out healthcare, the labor market has declined significantly. Healthcare added 506k jobs wile other sectors lost 525k jobs. Nearly half the losses (245k) were government related, (168k) were trade, and (89k) were manufacturing.

It cost a combined $53,098,863.70 to detain 708 migrants at Guantánamo in 2025. That's $74,998.40 per person—for an average stay of 14 days. Source: Defense Department IG report at www.dodig.mil/reports.html...

Taking a deep breath the Jan/Feb swing in hiring looks like mostly noise, but we are in a very low hiring environment reflecting our immigration policy + elevated uncertainty. The UR has been stable at 4.4% for 6m so this is not a falling off the cliff report, more a labor market with no mojo

I don't think we talk enough about how much response rates have fallen. This isn't just a BLS issue- survey responses have fallen everywhere post-covid. However, we see it particularly in the household survey and especially post-government shutdown last fall. Feb response rate was 65.9%.

Really looking forward to this event, in which we'll try to tackle one of the most important questions in the economy right now: What does A.I. mean for the labor market, both now and in the near future? Join us next week! www.hamiltonproject.org/event/unders... #EconSky

Same, I hope we hear more of this sentiment from other FOMC officials

In his remarks, John Williams cited the research from NY Fed economists that led Kevin Hassett to call for the researchers to be "disciplined." Williams told reporters afterward that the research was "incredibly well done" and "incredibly important."

NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26) Directorates to follow 1/10

US data center construction rose to a new record high in data released today, exceeding a $45B annualized rate (and this only includes the data center facilities, not the expensive computers within) Growth has slowed slightly, but investment is still up 30% over the last year

‼️The number of bachelor's degree holders 25yo+ as a share of the total number of unemployed people in the labor force has risen to all time highs. While unemployment rates are still low overall, the composition and distribution of levels continues to shift under the surface.

With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**. Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

glad @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and @stanveuger.bsky.social chart making the rounds again

New survey data from @kansascityfed.bsky.social shows nearly HALF of regional manufacturing firms are changing prices more often than last year. 84% of firms reported higher raw material costs in Feb vs last year and they are working on passing through these higher costs over the next 12 months.

The DHS agent surge in Minnesota reduced employees working in the MSP metro by 2.8%, total hours worked by 1.9%, and open business locations by 1.7% through mid-February. Estimated impact: $106 million in lost wages. new research from @aaronsojourner.org and @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social

Hello! I’m the reporter who has been tracking citizens detained by immigration agents. And last night, I noticed something: A lot of them were at the State of the Union, including a number of whom I’ve written about. Their stories should be known:

why do nerds suddenly appear every time I post here

Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about Fed independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain www.atlantafed.org/news-and-eve...

Attn Kevin Hassett: Cleveland Fed survey of 11,000 consumers finds that a 1% increase in tariff uncertainty reduces the probability of a household planning to purchase a durable good (house, car, or other big-ticket item) over the next 12 months by 0.23 pct pt. www.clevelandfed.org/publications...

What @edzarenski.bsky.social describes is the *exact* result predicted by Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2025)... Immigration enforcement causes "significant loss of undocumented workers in construction" AND "net job losses for US-born workers." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

@jc-econ.bsky.social moderating a rockstar panel to wrap up NABE’s annual policy conference on immigration policy and labor supply @nabe-econ.bsky.social with @stanveuger.bsky.social from AEI, Anna Maria Mayda from Georgetown, and Andrew Strain from @migrationpolicy.bsky.social

For the first time since @projectsaltbox.bsky.social launched their DHS warehouse acquisition tracker, the number of canceled sales is higher than any of the other warehouse-related figures. We've reached a tipping point, folks. lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/b0...

72% of Americans support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already here. That includes majorities of Trump's own voters. Congress has bipartisan bills ready. The public is not the obstacle. austinkocher.substack.com/p/new-pollin...

Core PCE: April: 2.6% May: 2.8% Aug: 2.9% Dec: 3.0%

Just a group of macro gals thinking about the future @courtneyshupert.bsky.social

Thoroughly enjoyed hearing another detailed and timely speech by Governor Cook on AI, productivity, and labor markets at @nabe-econ.bsky.social @federalreserve.gov @jc-econ.bsky.social

#Fed Gov Waller: « If employment data support the idea of an improvement in the labor market that continued in Feb, along with additional progress toward 2% inflation, that could result in my outlook turning a bit more positive and my view of appropriate monetary policy may tilt toward a pause… »

Last year, the U.S. was the only major destination to see a decline in international travelers. With increased scrutiny at the border, ICE violence and unpredictable policies, the new year isn’t looking better. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/t...

The price deflator for the federal sector surged 15.6% q/q saar in Q4 but was elevated in H1 as well--when the govt pays employees who don't work that shows up as a higher prices/less real output

The divergence between PCE and CPI measures of core inflation is becoming a bit more clear with Q4 data. Still, both measures have been stubbornly above the Fed's 2% for years. With the labor market appearing to stabilize, Kevin Warsh will likely inherit a cautious, hawkish FOMC.

For more than a decade, Kevin Warsh has advocated reining in the Fed’s pivotal role in the nation’s financial markets. Now, he may finally get the chance to do it. And Wall Street is obsessed with finding out what comes next. w/ @samjsutton.bsky.social www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

I got to pinch hit on labor markets with one of the greatest economists in the business, @jc-econ.bsky.social . Thanks to @nabe-econ.bsky.social for having me! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

There are lots of economists who don't have ties to Epstein, there are other options. This is the worst of the profession on display. Many moral, highly qualified economists exist but that's not what this administration is prioritizing.

The pillars of job growth are extraordinarily narrow. Private education and healthcare accounted for 215% of total job growth since January 2025. More sectors decreased headcount rather than hiring more workers. Government jobs dropped the most.

Benchmark revisions had large impacts in retail (-128,300 to Mar job level), leisure & hospitality (-153,000), wholesale (-114,700), prof & biz services (-126,000) and more Notably, health care almost entirely unaffected. 5/

As expected, the benchmark revision showed notable slowing in job growth in 2025. Final NSA revisions (-862k) were very close to preliminary benchmark revisions (-911k) based on QCEW data we got last year.

"Immigration Raids in South Texas Are Starting to Hit the Economy" www.wsj.com/politics/pol...