Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as @federalreserve.gov Governor. Confirmation as Chair likely tomorrow.

In today’s post, the authors share that our latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit finds that while student loan balances remained unchanged in Q1 2026, the share of student loan balances past due increased, neared pre-pandemic levels at just over 10%. nyfed.org/433SNF2

“Kevin Warsh is the dog who caught the car. I say that with great affection and sympathy.” My column dispatch from Warsh’s intellectual home: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

April inflation coming in hot on surging food and energy prices, core inflation was a little firm but not a huge surprise. Going to make it hard for Warsh to maintain an easing bias given solid labor market indicators and a core PCE translation that suggests continued acceleration

Prominent WSJ coverage of important research on negative impact of deportations on other workers by @chloeneast.bsky.social and Elizabeth Cox, both at @colorado.edu. www.nber.org/papers/w35129

Prices of bags, containers, cups and utensils have all soared, sparking fears of shortages as manufacturers struggle to source packaging for products such as instant noodles, beverages and cosmetics. www.ft.com/content/3674...

This was added today to the HuffPost’s story about the illegal closure of the Immigration Detention Ombudsman’s office. It’s an easily disprovable lie. Check it out:

It's a very odd feeling to read that the cost of your firing was $20 billion to the US economy. Studies like this are so important. It's hard to put a value on a public service. Trustworthy economic data is vital to so much economic activity in a $29 trillion economy. Worth your time to read.

NY Fed: "We find that, since 2023, wealth has increased the most for high-income households, while inflation has risen the most for low-income households, with both factors helping explain the fact that real retail spending rose the most for high-income households."

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

The U.S. is on track to lose more immigrants than it gains in 2026. It could impact taxes, disrupt labor markets and more.

We got our hands on internal ICE records that show how widespread use of force, like punches, kicks, takedown maneuvers, restraint holds, and less-lethal weapons such as Tasers and pepper spray in detention centers has grown wapo.st/4tdgBRA (1/)

Love employment research and policy? We do too! @upjohninstitute.bsky.social is hiring a full-time research analyst. Our current RAs' degrees range from BA to PhD, so give the opening a look. #econ_ra #EconSky #sociology #policysky

New working paper on the California Fast-Food minimum wage (will come out as NBER WP soon but posting now). Big increase in wages. Big drop in separations. Little change in jobs. (Bonus: sheds light on QWI vs QCEW measurement of jobs.)

In explaining their dissents this week, Kashkari and Hammack cite resurgent inflation risks stemming from the Iran War. Kashkari (below) says a "series" of hikes might be needed if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, "even at the risk of further weakness to the labor market."

ExxonMobil and Chevron are defying calls from the Trump White House to increase oil production as prices soar because of the Iran war. "The crisis has not prompted any change to any of our plans." www.ft.com/content/2a02...

The BEA switched to PPI legal services for estimating PCE legal services in Mar like they did in Jan. In Feb they used CPI legal services which is the official source data. The consistency across Jan/Mar is reassuring because it shows they are treating outliers in a symmetric fashion. However...

This is the first ever party-line vote for a Fed chair out of committee. Until 2020, party-line votes for any Fed nominees were unusual. The previous two Fed chair votes (both Powell) were approved on votes of 22-1 and 23-1.

h/t to @nicktimiraos.bsky.social "Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) told reporters Monday night that he understood why Fed Chair Jerome Powell would want to continue to serve on the central bank's board for a little while after his term as chair expires May 15."

This week’s Fed meeting is set to be Powell's last as chair. But the wait and see policy path that he carved out amid resurgent inflation risks is likely to stay intact long after he leaves the top job. That means rate cuts may be on an extended hold www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/b... @nytimes.com

The BEA produces a regional price parity index to compare costs across states, and it's remarkable that Texas has handled all of its post-2019 growth while becoming *cheaper* relative to the US overall Meanwhile, Florida's growth has given it the highest relative cost increase

I wasn't familiar with the base rates here so I went and looked it up. It was 315 total. The Midwest number was 121. For context, there were 599 farm bankruptcies nationwide in 2019 (the most recent annual peak). That's compared to a tad less than 1.9mm US farms.

I guess it's fine though because the US is a net energy exporter, right? www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

Kevin Warsh is leaning on the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Inflation measure (b/c it’s going down) at a time when the Dallas Fed itself is warning that it maybe misleading because it is calibrated to an era of low inflation that we are no longer in www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Crucially, Tillis has not yet spoken today about whether he will now allow Warsh's confirmation to proceed. Powell, meanwhile, has reason to be skeptical that the legal threats against him and the institution are well and truly over, keeping alive the prospects that he stays on as a governor

*PIRRO SAYS SHE'S CLOSING POWELL PROBE INTO FED BUILDING COSTS

The Dallas Fed conducted a special flash survey of energy companies from April 15-20. Firms expect international flows to have normalized before the end of the year but expect additional disruptions in the next 5 years.

Official data is in today, and US solar power generation continues to grow rapidly, up 25% compared to this time last year!

I recently had the pleasure of joining BBC's World Business Report to recap the state of the US economy. We discussed Kevin Warsh's hearing before the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and what that means for near term Fed policy. www.bbc.com/audio/play/p...

Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights to save fuel as prices soar www.ft.com/content/bd0e...

The propsective Fed Chair refuses to say whether cutting interest rates 250bps would stimulate the economy and boost inflation

We are not happy campers: @newyorkfed.org labor market survey shows fewer people looking for work (22.5%), and only 9.7% expect to change jobs. Satisfaction with wages and promotion opportunities dropped to the lowest since March 2014. www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomi...

@politico.com with the scoop on Warsh's preliminary remarks for tomorrow's hearing with the Senate Banking Committee. Lots for fed watchers to dig into... subscriber.politicopro.com/f/?id=000001...

While sports betting makes up ~90% of prediction market volume right now, the market for traditional or augmented financial market trades also continues to grow. Example: the race for Fed Chair was worth ~$217mn on Kalshi.

Sen Tillis' post from last night...

New @newyorkfed.org piece today "Use of Gen AI in the Workplace and the Value of Access to Training" shows AI adoption is heavily concentrated among higher-income, higher-educated, and full-time workers. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/04/use-...

Kevin Warsh financial disclosures details for those interested... prod-i.a.dj.com/public/resou... #fed #fomc #finsky #warsh

Trump has cut legal immigration more than illegal immigration, as I predicted. While illegal entries have fallen, they continued a prior trend, falling more before he came back. Meanwhile, Trump has drastically cut legal entries, reversing the prior upward trend. www.cato.org/blog/trump-h...

When you add it all up, the collapse in immigration looks like this: a decline of roughly 50K for illegal (even including the people arrested and not released) and a decline of about 132K for legal. Over 70% of the cut in immigration has come from LEGAL immigration.

Fed nominee Warsh clears a hurdle to Senate hearing

NEW: USCIS published its data for all of 2025, and even into Jan. 2026. The result: 2025 began w high numbers of citizenship apps submitted & decided (approved/denied). By winter fewer were applying to become citizens — and fewer were given a decision. Latest: www.npr.org/2026/04/13/g...

Wonk alert: Judgmental decisions by BEA may bias consumer inflation lower. Stats agencies should strive for even handed methdology & transparency @laurarosner.bsky.social @courtneyshupert.bsky.social @bencasselman.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @federalreserve.gov @pkrugman.bsky.social

Before we run with the headline that consumer sentiment is the lowest in history--that is NOT the case in the Conference Board survey that has a much larger sample and stable methodology. Michigan increasingly strains credibility

New release from the Michigan Survey of Consumers for March 2026 #Inflation #expectations of household surge. The median 1-year-ahead increased to almost 5%. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% More there: www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Important investigation into failures with ICE medial care that have likely caused multiple deaths. I'll note that these failures are common in the criminal justice system, and are just as deadly there, which is one reason why a solution is to heavily restrict the use of immigration detention.

Very cool paper from @federalreserve.gov looking at tariff effects over time. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

Inflation expectations are increasing. New @newyorkfed.org data for March shows 1-yr inflation expectations jumped from 3.0% to 3.4%! Meanwhile, 3-yr expectations ticked up from 3.0% to 3.1% while 5-yr expectations rose 0.07pp but still rounded down to 3.0% (unchanged).

"The Strait of Hormuz is no longer operating as a single controlled chokepoint... The operating environment is now defined by parallel routing structures, selective access, diplomatic coordination, and elevated kinetic risk." windward.ai/blog/april-6...

Grateful to chat with @marketplace.org on Friday about the March jobs report! The declining trend in wage growth is happening at a time when inflation is accelerating which is a hit to real disposable income for consumers. www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...