Hi everyone, we have a Goodreads hardcover giveaway for THE WAGE STANDARD going live today through 3/27. Here is the link, in case you’d like to enter the giveaway: bit.ly/4t3XKt8

Really excited about this book

Great to see The Wage Standard on the Next Big Idea Club must-read list! bookoftheday.nextbigideaclub.com/i/189408339/...

A lot of people are understandably commenting on the lack of an exit strategy and a war of attrition. But seems like the biggest question is how long until Trump loses interest? Because that is probably how this will end.

It was great to talk to @petebuttigieg.bsky.social today, about labor market policy, AI, and The Wage Standard.

📢 PSA for #EconSky & #RStats: The GitHub repo for our Local Projections Difference-in-Differences (LP-DiD) paper now has example scripts for R! If you're looking to implement LP-DiD in R, these are for you Here: github.com/danielegirar... #Econometrics #CausalInference @arindube.bsky.social

You market your product as something that will turn human civilization upside down and destroy livelihoods, and somehow everyone is not super excited about it. 🤔

Seems like a simple talking point for the elections: the affordability agenda begins with a refund to American consumers for the illegal tariff price hikes.

When R2 asks you to do those robustness checks you really don't want to do, just replying "The Dow is over $50,000!" is always an option.

In forecasting the future of AI, it's easy to miss the main point. Whether AI largely substitutes or complements human capabilities isn't merely a technological matter. It's a societal choice.

Bad day for bubbles

Twitter/X is not real life, apparently.

The DoorDash discourse is missing the bigger picture: restaurant meals have become more expensive than preparing food at home, and guess what? People are are eating less restaurant meals (whether takeout or going out) and preparing more food at home. Especially poorer and younger folk.

We can learn a lot from Moltbook - by reading how people react to a simulacrum

We will remember Alex Pretti.

This

💯 accurate description.

Breaking: Econometrica is now accepting "Framework of a paper" submissions

The Lucas Cri-taco?

How markets factor in Trump came up in the Fed firing oral argument today at SCOTUS. SG pointed to lack of market reaction to Cook's firing as a reason why the impact is not so bad, but no discussion of whether market assumed courts would intervene, and so on.

The single best theory of the last few months

The TACO cycle: Markets want to price in TACO. But TACO only works if Trump sees stocks tank. So we get a loop: Trump does things → nothing happens (markets already priced in TACO) → that emboldens him to do more → until markets start to think he might not TACO → stocks fall → TACO is restored.

My 2026 market outlook: a tech bubble meets political shocks—Trump's trade and military choices—potentially triggering a 30%+ S&P drawdown. AI will remain valuable, but current asset prices can't be reconciled with plausible earnings. Here's how I see it playing out: 🧵

As @eschatonblog.com used to say, another wild day at the dog track. Amazing what threatening military and economic conflict with your major trading partners and allies can do!

I do not like how close POTUS is getting to declaring war against Minnesotans & ordering the U.S. Army to coerce us. We are standing up peacefully. The only way I see this walk down is enough GOP members of Congress coalesce with Ds to reign him in on this. What can u do to advance that?

This piece by Matt Bruenig is essential reading for AI skeptics on the left. You may or may not agree with the arguments, but very much worth taking seriously. mattbruenig.com/2026/01/19/s...

Some smart takes from Ben. I do think it's interesting that his perspective about impact on workers is substantially mediated by presence of strong collective bargaining protection in the film industry, which are not there for most American workplaces.

There is very little space for trenchant political analysis at the moment.

Honestly, tons of academics who I greatly respect don't realy understand AI including - what it does, how it's evolving, how it's affecting research. That's bad.

Nice post that highlights that while there has been a substantial reduction in wage inequality since 2019, the reduction is substantially smaller than the rise in wage inequality since the early 1980s. Perspective is important.

Trump has become too toxic even for the German far right. www.politico.eu/article/germ...

This is crazy. Apparently this guy was planning to do a mass shooting in Breckenridge (CO) as a way to kill liberals. Relevant for me because my son and I were planning to be in Breck next week to ski (we changed our plans for other reasons but - chilling). www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adve...

Something I want to be very clear about. The tightness fueled reduction in wage inequality is a limited affair - it's mainly about raising wages in the bottom half of the pay distribution, mostly in the bottom 1/3. It doesn't solve all our inequality problems, especially top concentration.

New Substack post: The wage compression that persisted. arindube.substack.com/p/the-wage-c...

New Substack post: The wage compression that persisted. arindube.substack.com/p/the-wage-c...

I think it speaks somewhat poorly of the state of our world that I got really excited using VS code, integrating Python, Stata, Overleaf, with AI all in one platform.

Over 8 million workers are getting a long overdue raise. 19 states increased their minimum wage this month. More workers now live in states with a $15+ wage than those stuck at the federal minimum of $7.25 an hour. Much needed relief for working families as wages lag behind the cost of living

Once upon a time, the American government actually paid attention to the oil men before doing coups and interventions (see next post). We used to be a country, a real country. www.cnn.com/2026/01/09/p...

“When people give me things, I post them.” That’s a terrifying decision rule for someone comfortable wielding unchecked power over anyone in this world.

Interesting! @aaronsojourner.org @arindube.bsky.social

Who is ready for 2027?

"An analysis of footage from three camera angles shows that the motorist was driving away from—not toward—a federal officer when he opened fire." Great video analysis of Minneapolis shooting from NYT. These frames show drawing of gun and exact moment of first shot. www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...

We will remember Renee Good.

It was not "domestic terrorism.” It was state sanctioned violence. A family will forever live with the pain caused by the admin's reckless and deadly actions. Abolishing ICE is not enough. They must be held accountable.

Two biases distort how we judge economic life of ordinary people. One, often elite-driven, downplays the harms, especially inequality. The other is plain negativity bias, often amplified by media. Our goal? Strike the right balance: acknowledge real progress without pretending the work is done.

Beyonce joins the ranks of a policy failure

It's amazing how myopic the tech elite have demonstrated themselves to be. They have very little support among voters in either party, and this will show up in policies. And yet, they seem to show little recognition of this. At some point, a tax on their wealth will be the least of their concerns.