"Most European leaders are part of a Cold War generational cohort that was irreversibly socialised into the idea of American primacy. This view of the world is both Panglossian (empire is inherently more stable than multipolar alternatives) and civilisational"

"Much like in the UK, sections of the European political elite are concerned primarily with maintaining their own proximity to imperial power. They underestimate the nihilism of the new order they are hastening in the process. The only rewards for obedience have been humiliation and coercion."

On stubborn Atlanticism: "Sections of the European political elite are concerned primarily with maintaining their own proximity to imperial power. In the spirit of Vichy, many believe that collaborationism is the only way to guarantee some autonomy going forward." www.equator.org/articles/dea...

A lot to chew on here. Very timely and important!

A very good piece on why the left can't jettison the concept of international law altogether, despite its limitations and structural arrangement which at times has repeatedly legitmized colonialism and might-makes-right.

International law is not dead The Iran war cannot lead the left to submit to an anarchic world order By Dominik Leusder

Why does the old regime persist? For this @equatormag.bsky.social symposium, I offer some stylised explanations of what the ECFR calls ‘strategic lunacy’: the tenacity of European servility despite the waning of both US power and the benefits of submitting to it. www.equator.org/articles/dea...

My Weekend Essay for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social: why the 'left-realist' critique of int’l law is a form of disenchantment that obscures more about political reality than it illuminates. A short critique of Perry Anderson via EP Thompson, Carr, Weber. www.newstatesman.com/world/middle...

Excellent piece: a sharp defence of international law against both liberal hypocrisy and cynical “left realism”.

Why does the old regime persist? For this @equatormag.bsky.social symposium, I offer some stylised explanations of what the ECFR calls ‘strategic lunacy’: the tenacity of European servility despite the waning of both US power and the benefits of submitting to it. www.equator.org/articles/dea...

International law is not dead - The Iran war cannot lead the left to submit to an anarchic world order @newlefteviews.bsky.social “The law is an instrument of class warfare not just for the rulers but one that can and should be repurposed by the ruled into real constraints on power.”

I've written an overview of the deindustrialisation discourse in Germany: the elite has been sleepwalking into crisis. The title exaggerates but what I do get at is that two decades of terrible macro policy set up German industry for China trade shock. jacobin.com/2026/03/germ...

My Weekend Essay for the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social: why the 'left-realist' critique of int’l law is a form of disenchantment that obscures more about political reality than it illuminates. A short critique of Perry Anderson via EP Thompson, Carr, Weber. www.newstatesman.com/world/middle...

That coat is just pure Andor.

I've written an overview of the deindustrialisation discourse in Germany: the elite has been sleepwalking into crisis. The title exaggerates but what I do get at is that two decades of terrible macro policy set up German industry for China trade shock. jacobin.com/2026/03/germ...

✍🏼

The tube’s flooring looks like it has ggplot’s viridis colour palette and I need to get a life

Made a chart (Re: EU-Mercosur-India trade deals). Was struck by how small the share of exports with Japan is, but digging deeper, since the 2018 EU-JP Trade Agreement, bilateral total (goods and services) trade soared by 20%, albeit from low baseline. Lends credence to the 'much potential' take?

Made a chart (Re: EU-Mercosur-India trade deals). Was struck by how small the share of exports with Japan is, but digging deeper, since the 2018 EU-JP Trade Agreement, bilateral total (goods and services) trade soared by 20%, albeit from low baseline. Lends credence to the 'much potential' take?

Cross posted:

Agree with Karthik that weaponising centrality in that domain is self-terminating.

*sigh*

The miserable thing about the dollar system is that developing countries get screwed on the way up (refinancing-, debt servicing- and import costs rise) and on the way down (lower value of their dollar-denominated sovereign debt means higher yields).

These USDJPY days must be field days for @rajakorman.bsky.social

whole heartedly agree about this though. an absolutely necessary first step.

Nice dip into the rise of loneliness in China by @newlefteviews.bsky.social jacobin.com/2026/01/chin...

For non-UK, what's more crucial for sovereignty and geopolitical leverage, especially regarding the holdings of US assets, is the creation of a deep market for joint liabilities for a global euro. A great recent piece by the mighty @shahinvallee.bsky.social: www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-g...

A lot of this is custody for US assets owned by non-UK entities under UK jurisdiction. It doesn’t mean they cant be leveraged, but the UK would have diminish London’s status as safe haven for this sort of activity. (hahaha_yes_sickos.jpeg). I’m just curious why they’ve risen so sharply—any ideas?

Great thread on central bank independence by DL. Worth your 2 minutes

Starmer is wrong to opt for suppliance on the basis that the UK has no leverage over the US. British holdings of Treasuries have ballooned and surpassed China's. European holdings overall are major.

Is China exceptional or just another case of industrial development? A striking recent data point implies the answer might be: both. I argue that solo households are both a sign of great success and that China can't escape global 'dual economy' dynamics. jacobin.com/2026/01/chin...

"The more dramatic and speedy the capitalist development, the greater the severity of the social dislocations that generate these dual-economy patterns." Good synthesis of China's political economic and demographic crises

There’s a wonderful clarity to Dominik’s writing here:

Is China exceptional or just another case of industrial development? A striking recent data point implies the answer might be: both. I argue that solo households are both a sign of great success and that China can't escape global 'dual economy' dynamics. jacobin.com/2026/01/chin...

The gist is that the growth of central bank power became a convenient foil for populist politics, both left and right, which in turn has provoked a lot of centrist pearl-clutching about 'independence'. All of this is misguided, but people remain deeply committed to versions of this narrative. 🧵 1/n

My weekend essay in @unherd.com on why central bank independence is a distraction. The real danger lies not with unelected technocrats but in the aggrandisement of power by authoritarians and the global financial sector—that’s true even for the Fed. unherd.com/2026/01/the-...

It’s crazy that Canada would jeopardize its alliance with the US because it needs that alliance in order to protect Canada from the only country that has a potential motive, the geographic proximity, and military capability to invade Canada, which is oh never mind..

Every time I pass a fountain, I toss a euro in and wish for the end of dollar hegemony. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-g...

This is very good but in a way the conclusion is even worse than @newlefteviews.bsky.social describes. The power to be prioritised in the next crisis imv will sit with major hedge funds who are now guardians or purveyors of liquidity in Treasuries and Gilts. unherd.com/2026/01/the-...

Very nice. ICYMI, Luttwak wrote was what a remarkably prescient piece in the 1990s about the antecedents and probably consequences of ceding macroeconomic management to central bankers. Quite apart from what he is now, this piece really does stand out. www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v1...

The other "Incredibly Prophetic Luttwak LRB Piece from the 1990s" is of course this one, tho' I think it's been rediscovered more recently (Blyth I think posted it with some incredulity a few years ago). www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v1...

All of this thread. @newlefteviews.bsky.social nails it on this unherd.com/2026/01/the-... . I wrote some notes with similar breaking points to clients on an asset management side potential outcome perspective that at some point I will release to public.

Simon Kuper in today’s FT on the bamboozled blue-suited governing elite: “Some tribe members did stints at US universities … and fell for a country that’s now outside their circle of trust.” Blue suit Klaas Knot, also FT today: www.ft.com/content/77f4...

Agree with Karthik that weaponising centrality in that domain is self-terminating.

I agree w. Dom re: WH desire to weaponize $ & capture Fed for domestic & int’l reasons. IMO MAGA detests DM CBers as “globalists” (in sense of routinely thinking/interacting across borders) & as technocrats. But IMO it also underestimates MADness of weaponizing a particular aspect of centrality.

Great start to the weekend - new essay from Dominik. The idea that Trump wants Fed control to increase coercion of US allies is a significant unpriced risk. Cc @rajakorman.bsky.social @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social @econreporter.bsky.social

My weekend essay in @unherd.com on why central bank independence is a distraction. The real danger lies not with unelected technocrats but in the aggrandisement of power by authoritarians and the global financial sector—that’s true even for the Fed. unherd.com/2026/01/the-...

I think present those pull factors along with a continued worsening of the other site, I'd be pretty bullish about this place: enough people moving over here would actually change the tone (which I personally find exceptionally off-putting and lacking in demographic- and viewpoint diversity).

"You must reduce your manufacturing share of your economy and shift from tradable goods to non-tradable goods, whether that’s your policy or not." jacobin.com/2025/12/glob...