“Throughout the North and the South, oil shocks lead to upward redistribution of income and wealth” This month’s Meridional column: @rugitsky.bsky.social on Hormuz, the 2022 energy shock, monetary tightening, and the economic consequences of the war on Iran. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

Dawn of the Electric World Order: Global shockwaves from the war on Iran are accelerating the energy transition “What makes this shock different from the 1970s? As analysts at Ember put it: “this is the first energy shock with a superior alternative.” www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/daw...

“Throughout the North and the South, oil shocks lead to upward redistribution of income and wealth” This month’s Meridional column: @rugitsky.bsky.social on Hormuz, the 2022 energy shock, monetary tightening, and the economic consequences of the war on Iran. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

“In Argentina and Brazil, the economic transformation led by the giant grain traders increased the countries’ foreign vulnerability at the same time as it sowed the seeds of anti-democratic politics.” @rugitsky.bsky.social on the world-shaping business of soy www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/soy...

“States with powerful fossil fuel lobbies, or those that lack fiscal space, may see consumer-led energy transitions, while the state bears the legacy of stranded assets. This is the Pakistan scenario” www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/daw...

“To gird their bottom lines, investment bankers are prepared to sacrifice one of the last public agencies that physically binds the United States together as a nation.” Good account by Benjamin Fong on why privatizing the postal service wouldn’t work. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/uns...

“This is the first energy shock with a superior alternative” www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/daw...

“Carbon shock therapists saw shrinking manufacturing capacity as a necessary adjustment to the 2022 energy shock. By 2025, a new government announced a €1tn defense and infrastructure spending package—a delayed reaction to self-induced deindustrialization.” www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/aga...

“The militarized commitment to “securing” Middle East oil remains a feature of US foreign policy, even as its justification grows more nebulous in light of rising non-Middle East oil production.” From 2022, @gbrew24.bsky.social on the history of oil prices www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/pri...

"The rate at which Trump's war on Iran is fulfilling UN and Obama/Biden energy policy goals is just breathtaking. " - Eric Roston of Bloomberg www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/daw...

“In the short term, the war raises export income for US oil and gas producers. In the longer term, the ‘energy dominance’ strategy is self-defeating—creating profound volatility and repelling investors, consumers, and governments alike.” www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/daw...

NEW: “Once a climate project, electrification is now a geopolitical insurance policy. A fossil fuel supremacist government has made oil and gas costly and unreliable—and accelerated the turn to the electric world order.” @katemac.bsky.social & I @phenomenalworld.bsky.social

“Once a climate project, electrification is now a geopolitical insurance policy. A fossil fuel supremacist government has made carbon costly and unreliable—and accelerated the turn to the electric world order.” NEW @thepolycrisis.bsky.social column up now www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/daw...

From the point of view of US policymakers, American diplomatic leadership stabilizes the world. Without it, the “jungle grows back,” as Robert Kagan put it,& the intl order descends into the chaos of “might makes right” Hows that going www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

Must read by @danielagabor.bsky.social @benbraun.eurosky.social "This, we argue, is the pathway for the Santa Marta countries to achieve the decarbonized sovereignty imperative—the strategic pursuit of decarbonization as a matter of national security" www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/aga...

Trump's petrowars threaten to unleash carbon shock therapy around the world - disorderly decarbonization and deindustrialisation. The answer, we argue w @benbraun.eurosky.social, is decarbonised sovereignty, a pathway for the Santa Marta coalition. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/aga...

This Benjamin Fong essay for @phenomenalworld.bsky.social on the fate of the USPS is really well done

Great analysis here on the havoc that would be wreaked by privatizing USPS www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/uns...

If you want to understand History of Oil read this superb essay by @gbrew24.bsky.social 1) Somebody always does price-setting, both Govts & Big Oil 2) Geopolitics is entangled w Market & neither firms nor govts can set prices for long 3) Big Oil vs wildcatters www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/pri...

“After Wells Fargo published its framework for privatizing the mail, the USPS Board of Governors elected David Steiner, a member of the FedEx board of directors, as Postmaster General. By 2028, the whole USPS Board of Governors will be Trump appointees.“ www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/uns...

For @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, I spoke with Sam Gindin about the auto industry in Canada

NEW: Iran is the seventh country to undergo US military intervention in the first 15 months of Trump’s presidency; 5 of 7 are rich in oil Oil War or not...the disruption will accelerate end of US hegemony @katemac.bsky.social & I @phenomenalworld.bsky.social www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

"Today, Toyota and Honda are the two top assemblers in Canada.  Last year Toyota alone actually assembled more vehicles than GM, Ford, and Chrysler combined." On the Canadian auto industry: Sam Gindin in conversation with PW editor Andrew Elrod. www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/s...

"As the equivalent of the global South right next door, Mexico gives North American companies like GM, Ford, and Stellantis a way to respond to Asian competition." NEW from PW: Andrew Elrod talks with Sam Gindin about the Canadian auto industry www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/s...

Artigo bem escrito e irretocável sobre a gestão de Haddad no ministério da fazenda, marcada pela reconstrução fiscal e tributária e o slogan “o pobre no orçamento e o rico pagando imposto”. www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

"Fernando Haddad deixa a Fazenda tendo cumprido o que para muitos, em 2022, parecia improvável: recolocou o pobre no orçamento e, pela primeira vez, colocou os super-ricos no imposto de renda" NOVO na PW: Rodrigo Toneto avalia a gestão econômica de Haddad www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

My new article on @phenomenalworld.bsky.social www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

In my new piece for @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, I examine Washington’s growing interest in a Venezuelan-style “regime management” approach and explain why Iran does not fit this model. (1/3) www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

“The decapitation of the Iranian leadership has not produced capitulation. It has consolidated power in the hands of a younger and more militant generation.” @eskandarsadeghi.bsky.social on Mojtaba Khamenei www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

Novo na PW: @nasserelamine.bsky.social analisa a entrada do Hezbollah no conflito EUA-Israel e Irã www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

Novo na PW: @yarbatman.bsky.social examina a simples arma iraniana que lançou a economia mundial em desordem: o drone kamikaze Shahed-136 www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

Novo na PW: @kayhanvaladbaygi.bsky.social explica como a estratégia estadunidense de "gerenciamento de regime" utilizada na Venezuela não se aplica ao caso do Irã www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

“The more the Trump administration tries to remake the Iranian power structure, the more cohesive it becomes. It’s regime-protective architecture designed to deflect this kind of threat.” @kayhanvaladbaygi.bsky.social on regime change fantasies in Iran www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

“Hezbollah’s actions since March 2 should be understood as a major, possibly even existential, gamble: a bid to reclaim territories occupied by Israel, and the party’s legacy following the 2024 defeat.” @nasserelamine.bsky.social on Israel, Iran, and Lebanon www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/hez...

Fascinating piece in @phenomenalworld.bsky.social by @yarbatman.bsky.social on the actual production costs of the Shahed-136:

“Hezbollah’s actions since March 2 should be understood as a major, possibly even existential, gamble: a bid to reclaim territories occupied by Israel, and the party’s legacy following the 2024 defeat.” @nasserelamine.bsky.social on Israel, Iran, and Lebanon www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/hez...

Cheap drones are "democratizing" massive destruction, revolutionizing war. Since modern life relies on vulnerable infrastructure, "mutually assured destruction" is universal now. Forget nukes. Anyone can smash other countries' access to energy & water. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

Good read on Iranian drones and their production. Drones Like Bicycles: www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

The Shahed-136 is a cheap weapon. But it’s much cheaper than most reports suggest. In this new analysis, @yarbatman.bsky.social compares production costs in the US and Iran to come up with a better estimate for the cost of a Shahed: $7,000. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

“The US and Israel have tried to try to make the conduct of war too ‘expensive’ for Iran. As this war of choice engulfs the region and the global economy, it is imperative to understand how ‘cheap’ a war can now be.” @yarbatman.bsky.social on the Shahed-136 www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

“…it’s very hard to observe China’s petroleum stocks because they don’t like to report them…The first rule about the strategic petroleum reserve in China is you don’t talk about strategic petroleum reserve…” - @alexbhturnbull.bsky.social www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/o...

Can US maintain European & East Asian buy-in for an extended Iran War? The pain will multiply:energy, food,commodities,refugees, chips, AI.. Coalition mgmt during wartime is very hard because countries face unequal burdens & have their own domestic politics www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/con...

“Sectors of Brazilian society previously uninterested in defense have begun to believe we need to acquire deterrence capability. Venezuela shows this is no simple task. But it is a necessary one.” Lula’s Chief Advisor Celso Amorim on the new world disorder www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/a...

And at @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, Benjamin Fong looks at the increasingly complex logistics of Amazon’s same-day delivery expansion.

"As consequências ainda são difíceis de mensurar, mas é pouco plausível supor resultados de baixo custo, considerando as dimensões demográficas, históricas e políticas do Irã" Entrevista com Celso Amorim, ex-chanceler e conselheiro internacional de Lula www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/entrev...

It's Amazon's world. Benjamin Y. Fong continues his wonderful journey to reveal how we're just living in it. The latest at Phenomenal World: The Apotheosis of Point of Sale Data www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

This is focused on NY, but is broadly applicable. Best analysis of housing costs I have ever seen. Let’s make housing affordable. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/aft...

Over at @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, @lenorepalladino.bsky.social explains how private credit has become the unregulated industry at the heart of the American economy and how we might address this looming crisis.

Uma conversa com Rafael Ramírez, membro mais longevo do gabinete de Chávez e ex-presidente da PDVSA www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/entrev...

"Developing a general framework for regulating finance, holistically and structurally, which could be put to use when reformers have the necessary leverage, is no more utopian than what private markets themselves promise." Excellent piece by @lenorepalladino.bsky.social