How can Trump turn things around on inflation?—Crucially, Trump should also turn his attention away from distractions like building a White House ballroom and renovating the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool and… www.ft.com/content/0a86... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it - By @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tomorrowsaffairs.com/populists-wr... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #Tax

My colleague @kschake.bsky.social: "Without bases in Europe, US power projection becomes much more difficult and costly. Troops stationed overseas are not a gift to allied countries; they are enablers of America’s global military power." www.aei.org/foreign-and-... #policysky

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS budget — @nickbloom.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social Duncan Hobbs @michaelrstrain.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35135

🧵President Trump has three goals when it comes to the Federal Reserve, including having Kevin Warsh as chairman. But Mr. Trump’s own vindictiveness and lack of discipline are thwarting all three goals. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #econsky

Good from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social: remarkable how long it's taken to admit that with the great exception of trade policy, Trump has governed economically like the think tanks that write his legislation. www.ft.com/content/c8c4...

Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity—Trumpism barely works for Trump — most Americans disapprove of his job performance, including on inflation and immigration, the issues crucial… www.ft.com/content/c8c4... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

Ultimately, most things that make Trumpism distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last because they are not a coherent whole that another politician could easily inherit. My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/c8c4... #econsky

I had the privilege of organizing economist amicus briefs in support of the parties challenging the administration’s most recent round of worldwide tariffs. The cases are Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump. and Oregon et al. v. Trump, both before the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists have been discussing generative AI’s possible effects on productivity. But from a cultural and political perspective, it is useful to ask: How much productivity growth should society desire? My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a... #econsky

An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology- What should the Fed do? On the one hand, increasing interest rates in a weakening economy could be damaging. At the same time, it is imperative — after… www.ft.com/content/b9fd... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

1/ The Fed should treat inflation psychology as fragile — which makes the current situation in the Middle East even more precarious. My @financialtimes.com column. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky

1/ With both the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes & more genteel post-liberal commentators calling for their own religious views to be imposed on others, traditional conservatives and Christians must speak up. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c... #econsky

Though the Fed thinks it has its foot on the economy’s brake pedal, it is actually hitting the gas. Even if the central bank keeps the policy rate at its current level, it may need to raise rates in the second half of this year. My FT column: www.ft.com/content/2422... #econsky

Rich democracies are doing better than ever across many broad measures. While there are genuine concerns about democratic capitalism, it is hardly an obstacle to human flourishing, argues @michaelrstrain.bsky.social. bit.ly/49RnEcn

In the latest FT Swamp Notes newsletter (and before the seizure of Maduro), I asked @constelz.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @sohrabahmari.bsky.social, Lauren Fedor and Rebecca Katz to offer some guidance to the year ahead in US politics as.ft.com/r/faed7e98-5...

🧵 The rot on America’s political right runs deep. Perhaps because of their growing numbers and influence, some on the right apparently seem to believe that the political success of the Republican party requires playing footsie with racists, bigots and antisemites. What are conservatives to do?

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun-The writer is director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. www.ft.com/content/9adf... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

🧵We live in a populist age. Widespread discontent has swept unlikely politicians to the top of both political parties, and those politicians are pursuing unorthodox policies to respond to the concerns of the American people, with a particular focus on workers. #econsky

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social and I recently published a narrower paper using CPS data to understand the role of minimum wages in shaping wage gains over 12-month intervals (reflecting the limits of what one can do in CPS data): onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The centenary of Margaret Thatcher's birth received remarkably little attention, offering yet another reminder of how far the right has strayed, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/47YR2ej

How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers? New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL #EconSky papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The cost of health care is one of the biggest problems facing the US government. But extending the expiring subsidies will make health care more expensive, not less, observes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social. bit.ly/3JdNBrU

Michael sits down with Dr. @michaelrstrain.bsky.social to challenge the idea that the American Dream is out of reach. Is homeownership essential to success? Does hard work still pay off? And are our expectations part of the problem? Listen to the #podcast here 🎧➡️ loom.ly/7l3hQnE

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social explored this topic in a recent column for VoxEU. He argues US manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention. A trade war is likely to decrease employment in the sector rather than increase it. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The Federal Reserve's case for beginning a monetary-easing cycle this month rests on three judgments. But it is off base on all three, writes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social of the American Enterprise Institute. bit.ly/3VnFsnf

I enjoyed talking yesterday with @jdickerson.bsky.social on CBS Evening News Plus about the jobs report, the overall economy, and the Fed. www.cbsnews.com/video/95-cbs... #econsky @cbseveningnews.bsky.social

Trump is hostile to the Fed’s independence. He wants to bend the central bank to his will. He is willing to threaten officials with criminal prosecution to get his way. We are in dangerous territory. My @nationalreview.bsky.social column. www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-s... #econsky

Summarising his chapter from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the 2nd Trump administration, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social‬ argues that American #manufacturing is not in crisis and the #trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

What to make of the latest news that the US government is converting its billions in grants to Intel into equity shares? @novasafo.bsky.social has the story @marketplace.org with comments from me @michaelrstrain.bsky.social and others. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

Trump’s decision to take an equity stake in Intel is astonishing and troubling. His recent deal with Nvidia and AMD suggests security concerns are being used by the president as a fig leaf for rank corporate shakedowns. My @financialtimes.com column. Link: www.ft.com/content/2ddb... #econsky

I'm proud to work with WorkRise and I am proud of the work WorkRise is doing to advance economic mobility for low-wage workers. Please take a minute for this survey. Link: urban.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_... #econsky

Take a moment to read this by @michaelrstrain.bsky.social on BLS yes, but also on integrity. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #EconSky

The chaos of Trump's sticks, coupled with the absence of carrots, is not on track to set up a manufacturing renaissance, reports @greenhousenyt.bsky.social, with comment from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @drodrik.bsky.social Ann Harrison , Sue Helper, and me. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics shall also collect, collate, report and publish at least once per month full and complete statistics on the volume of and changes in employment, as indicated by the number of people employed, the total wages paid, and the total hours of employment." US law--1913, 1930

1/ On @marketplace.org, I argue that private-sector data are a valuable compliment to government data, but are *not* a substitute for government data, like those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky

Donald Trump should think twice before attempting to install a lackey at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because undermining trust in government data could have cascading effects throughout the US economy, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues.

Trump fired the official in charge of collecting basic statistics about the US economy. He's risking material harm to the economy by politicizing routine data reports, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tells me. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased. #econsky

Even if Donald Trump doesn’t make good on his threat to fire the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, his actions could significantly erode the central bank’s independence. Read more in a new PS Big Picture, with @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, Harold James, and others. bit.ly/3U8OKmr

Strain said maintaining the quality and integrity of federal economic data “is something that I am very concerned about. High-quality government data is extremely important to financial markets, business decisions, households’ decisions.” www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky

3/ My friends, the American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It)! Read about why: www.amazon.com/American-Dre... #econsky

1/ I really enjoyed this conversation with Ipsos Ipsos in US about the American Dream. As I told Mr. Carmichael, my belief in the health of the American Dream has only strengthened in recent years. #econsky

"Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?" Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine present important evidence on their research question, but also on economic methodology. See below for issues all empirical economists should be thinking about. Link to paper: www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #econsky

Great @martinsandbu.ft.com column: "The economic consequences of Donald Trump’s second coming" Link: www.ft.com/content/0892... #econsky

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues that the #trade war will likely decrease the number of #manufacturing jobs in the US and that increasing US manufacturing employment is not even a particularly important or desirable goal to begin with. cepr.org/publications... #EconSky