The Federal Reserve's case for beginning a monetary-easing cycle this month rests on three judgments. But it is off base on all three, writes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social of the American Enterprise Institute. bit.ly/3VnFsnf

I enjoyed talking yesterday with @jdickerson.bsky.social on CBS Evening News Plus about the jobs report, the overall economy, and the Fed. www.cbsnews.com/video/95-cbs... #econsky @cbseveningnews.bsky.social

Trump is hostile to the Fed’s independence. He wants to bend the central bank to his will. He is willing to threaten officials with criminal prosecution to get his way. We are in dangerous territory. My @nationalreview.bsky.social column. www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-s... #econsky

Summarising his chapter from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the 2nd Trump administration, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social‬ argues that American #manufacturing is not in crisis and the #trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

What to make of the latest news that the US government is converting its billions in grants to Intel into equity shares? @novasafo.bsky.social has the story @marketplace.org with comments from me @michaelrstrain.bsky.social and others. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

Trump’s decision to take an equity stake in Intel is astonishing and troubling. His recent deal with Nvidia and AMD suggests security concerns are being used by the president as a fig leaf for rank corporate shakedowns. My @financialtimes.com column. Link: www.ft.com/content/2ddb... #econsky

I'm proud to work with WorkRise and I am proud of the work WorkRise is doing to advance economic mobility for low-wage workers. Please take a minute for this survey. Link: urban.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_... #econsky

Take a moment to read this by @michaelrstrain.bsky.social on BLS yes, but also on integrity. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #EconSky

The chaos of Trump's sticks, coupled with the absence of carrots, is not on track to set up a manufacturing renaissance, reports @greenhousenyt.bsky.social, with comment from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @drodrik.bsky.social Ann Harrison , Sue Helper, and me. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics shall also collect, collate, report and publish at least once per month full and complete statistics on the volume of and changes in employment, as indicated by the number of people employed, the total wages paid, and the total hours of employment." US law--1913, 1930

1/ On @marketplace.org, I argue that private-sector data are a valuable compliment to government data, but are *not* a substitute for government data, like those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky

Donald Trump should think twice before attempting to install a lackey at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because undermining trust in government data could have cascading effects throughout the US economy, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues.

Trump fired the official in charge of collecting basic statistics about the US economy. He's risking material harm to the economy by politicizing routine data reports, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tells me. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased. #econsky

Even if Donald Trump doesn’t make good on his threat to fire the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, his actions could significantly erode the central bank’s independence. Read more in a new PS Big Picture, with @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, Harold James, and others. bit.ly/3U8OKmr

Strain said maintaining the quality and integrity of federal economic data “is something that I am very concerned about. High-quality government data is extremely important to financial markets, business decisions, households’ decisions.” www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky

3/ My friends, the American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It)! Read about why: www.amazon.com/American-Dre... #econsky

1/ I really enjoyed this conversation with Ipsos Ipsos in US about the American Dream. As I told Mr. Carmichael, my belief in the health of the American Dream has only strengthened in recent years. #econsky

"Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?" Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine present important evidence on their research question, but also on economic methodology. See below for issues all empirical economists should be thinking about. Link to paper: www.nber.org/papers/w33989 #econsky

Great @martinsandbu.ft.com column: "The economic consequences of Donald Trump’s second coming" Link: www.ft.com/content/0892... #econsky

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues that the #trade war will likely decrease the number of #manufacturing jobs in the US and that increasing US manufacturing employment is not even a particularly important or desirable goal to begin with. cepr.org/publications... #EconSky

13/ Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2013) find an average reduction in manufacturing employment of 90,000 jobs per year from 1990 to 2007. But in a typical month, five million workers separate from their employers. In the manufacturing sector, typical monthly separations are 351,000. #econsky

🚨🚨 My new paper, "The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment" is hot off the presses. A 🧵 Link: www.aei.org/wp-content/u... #econsky

🚨🚨 My new paper, "The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment" is hot off the presses. A 🧵 Link: www.aei.org/wp-content/u... #econsky

"The U.S. is giving up on taxing inheritances," by @jeffstein.bsky.social. Link: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

6/ Heckman's "incest coefficient" table. One-third of papers published in the QJE had at least one coauthor with a Harvard PhD. #econsky

Amid this upheaval, might the administration’s appetite for disruption be harnessed to modernize #federalstatistics? Nancy Potok and I have a new editorial (May 29) in Science Magazine, from @aaas.org. Check it out here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

🧵According to Professor Heckman, the ‘tyranny of the top five journals’… 1. …centralizes power in the hands of a select number of editors in a way that can be unhealthy. 2. …contributes to balkanization of the profession and enclaves, and stifles creativity. #econsky

1/ To be clear, Monday’s de-escalation does not merit uncorking the champagne. The economy is not out of the woods — the average effective US tariff rate is still higher than it has been since the Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s. My @financialtimes.com column. www.ft.com/content/c0ae... #econsky

"Leo XIV occupies the Chair of Saint Peter at a time when the moral foundations of free markets are under attack." As a Roman Catholic, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social has many hopes for the new Pope, not least that he offers strong support for free markets – as most of his predecessors did.

2/ My latest column discusses my hopes for the Holy Father and Church teaching on economics. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/l...

1/ Leo XIV proclaimed his desire for the Church always to try “to be close especially to those who suffer.” It is a worthy goal, and one that can best be achieved by promoting the most effective anti-poverty tool in history: free enterprise. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/l... #econsky

As the Supreme Court prepares to consider the question of birthright citizenship, John Yoo and Robert Delahunty make the originalist case for its constitutionality. nationalaffairs.com/publications... #econsky

. @jaredb-econ.bsky.social: "Like Strain (though from a different denomination), I’m happy to listen to Buddhist monks critique materialism. I’m extremely unwilling, and I suspect I’m not alone, to listen to billionaire crypto scammers do so." econjared.substack.com/p/our-gold-p... #econsky

"From prosperity to austerity: Trump’s tone shifts ahead of tariff impacts" Link: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... #econsky

👀Small businesses have 'nowhere to hide' from tariff impacts This is a much under-discussed topic👇

1/ Friends, the lack of viewpoint diversity in the humanities and social sciences -- including in economics departments, and especially in public policy schools -- is a scandal. It is a major obstacle to universities performing their teaching and research missions. #econsky

The administration is moving the rule. Official public (that's us!!) comment period is open. Friends of BLS has resources making it super easy & efficient for you to: 1) submit evidence to the official record & 2) communicate to your federal reps #econsky www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

This is not who we are as a people. "A federal judge in Louisiana expressed concern on Friday that the Trump administration had deported a 2-year-old U.S. citizen to Honduras 'with no meaningful process' and against the wishes of her father." #econsky www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/u...

Cinq raisons pour lesquelles la guerre commerciale de #trump n’augmentera pas l’emploi dans la fabrication. @michaelrstrain.bsky.social explique pourquoi la guerre commerciale ne stimulera pas l’emploi, en soulignant les preuves de 2018-19. #USA www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

S&P 500 change, Inauguration Day through April #econsky www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits... ... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot. Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit. Economists typically say "not so fast"... 🧵1/n

1/ I don’t see the need to drive up manufacturing employment. But even if I shared President Trump's goal, I would still be very concerned about the trade war. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #econsky

Trump's tariffs won't bring back manufacturing jobs. @michaelrstrain.bsky.social doesn’t see the need to drive up manufacturing employment in America. But even if he did, there are five reasons why Donald Trump’s trade war will not succeed in reviving factory jobs.