China's Belt & Road Initiative triggered strategic & divergent responses among major investment countries. The US increased investment in signatory countries, largely driven by strategic competition, while the UK reduced investment. Y Todo, S Nishitateno, S Brown cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

E Dabla-Norris, D Furceri, Z Munkacsi, & G Sher show reallocating spending to infrastructure, education, health, & R&D and closing efficiency gaps can raise GDP by 11% in EMDEs and 4% in advanced economies, without increases in total spending. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

In a special @voxeu.org Economics podcast episode, Professor Beatrice Weder di Mauro discusses what chances there are of significant multilateral agreements being signed at #COP30 and, given that the chances are low, what plan B might be. 👇 cepr.org/multimedia/c...

M Aquilina, G Gelos, A Schrimpf, & S Zhu highlight two recent advances in the use of #AI tools to anticipate financial market stress. The tools can help policymakers monitor emerging risks in real time, combining quantitative forecast & qualitative insights. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

International relocation of production systematically increases within-country income inequality in the countries that originally specialised in relocated products by compressing the income shares of the middle deciles. Francisco Alcalá, Andres Romeu cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

In 2024, Chinese annual oil demand declined for the first time in 20 years. L Bencivelli, A D'Orazio, S Emiliozzi, & A Gazzani show the rapid adoption of EVs is a major driver of this trend. In 2024 alone, EVs displaced 0.43 million barrels per day of gasoline. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Despite a rise in energy prices in 2023, Dutch households experienced slightly lower average expenditure-to-income ratios as disposable incomes increased faster. Tenants are more vulnerable but most households have become more resilient. M van der Plaat, A Huizinga cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Efraim Benmelech & Joao Monteiro use data for 115 conflicts over the past 75 years and document large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris, & Salma Khalid show that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. They also believe that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The informal sector expands during economic downturns and is highly sensitive to fiscal policy. Francesco Pappadà & Yanos Zylberberg show that limited commitment to repay sovereign debt and imperfect tax enforcement strongly influence fiscal policy during crises. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A Bonfiglioli, R Crinò, M Filomena, & G Gancia find that local #AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shifts from renewable to non-renewable sources. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Hélia Costa and John Hooley argue that the highly localised nature of climate-related natural disasters means impacts should be assessed at the subnational level. Such an approach reveals significant adverse effects of about 0.3% of GDP per year in OECD economies. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Norwegian data show that when children experience income losses, parents adjust their wealth to, either, transfer resources (when the shock is temporary) or increase savings (when the shocks are persistent). A Fagereng, L Guiso, L Pistaferri, @mariusring.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

In this special video episode of VoxTalks Economics, @wederdim.bsky.social joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss “coalitions of the willing” — climate and finance clubs that could drive sustainability when global consensus is out of reach. Watch: cepr.org/voxeu/video/... #EconSky #Podcast

David Martinez-Miera & Carlos Sunyer examine how an increase in political polarisation impacts a region's capacity to attract human capital. They leverage Spain's centralised system of medical resident placements and the 2017 Catalonia referendum as a case study. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A new open-access dataset reveals that African governments now raise more than half of their financing at home, reversing decades of dependence on external lenders. @markya.bsky.social‬, @upanizza.bsky.social, Niccolo Rescia, Christoph Trebesch, Ka Lok Wong cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

📢 Our new VoxDevLit on Political Polarisation is out now! Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation. Read & download here: https://voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-polarisation

Janice Huijun Yan & Randall Morck find that the stocks of firms headquartered in counties that tend to vote Republican fell more than the stocks of firms in 'bluer' counties following Trump's announcement of "Liberation Day" #tariffs. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

⭐Application deadline extended! ReCIPE Big Research Grant applications are open for another week. New deadline: 3 November, 13:00 GMT. All additional information can be found on the ReCIPE website: recipe.cepr.org/funding/big-... #EconSky #DevelopmentEcon #ResearchGrant

Gene M. Grossman & Alan Sykes argue that the Trump #tariffs do not meet two core requirements for the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The text of the Act also does not contain a clear delegation of tariff authority to the president. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Richard Portes discusses the threat that multi-issuer stablecoins pose to financial stability and provides a framework for understanding and mitigating the multi-issuer stablecoin loophole. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Productivity growth in East Asia is slowing. Francesca de Nicola, Aaditya Mattoo, & Jonathan Timmis find that the most productive firms in the region are no longer leading the charge and are falling behind, especially in digital-intensive sectors. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Brazil's Embrapa programme - a large public #R&D effort to create agricultural #innovation - shifted research to local needs and raised agricultural productivity by 110%, far outweighing its costs. Ariel Akerman, Jacob Moscona, Heitor Pellegrina, Karthik Sastry cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Ran Abramitzky & @mdrelichman.bsky.social review the contributions of Nobel Laureate Joel Mokyr. Mokyr's work underlines how economic progress is critically dependent on open intellectual inquiry, free exchange of ideas, and defence of scientific principles. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Nearly a decade after the #Brexit vote, new research shows how images, not just headlines, shaped public perceptions. Wanyu Chung (University of Birmingham) talks to @talknormal.co.uk about the visual politics of Brexit, using AI to measure emotion in media photos. cepr.org/multimedia/v... #EconSky

L Best, @bborn.bsky.social, & M Menkhoff survey German firms and find many firms do not adjust #investment after borrowing costs decrease because they have sufficient internal funds. Also, firms' sensitivity to borrowing costs decreases with the size of the change. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

F Cirelli & A Olafsson show, for the average household, low-yield deposits barely respond to interest rate differentials, even when there are equally safe alternatives available. Households forgo significant income by not moving balances to higher-yielding accounts. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

@ambrenicolle.bsky.social @cgenakos.bsky.social & @tkretschmer.bsky.social show how firms can manipulate market dynamics to their advantage by confusing consumers. By addressing obfuscation strategies, policymakers can help create fairer and more efficient markets. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

In many Germanic languages, the word for 'debt' also means 'guilt'. Cevat Giray Aksoy et al. find that using a guilt-laden term reduces willingness to borrow, lowers approval for government debt, & influences firms' financing plans and the framing of fiscal policy. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Variations in lending practices drive cross-country differences in #monetarypolicy pass-through in the euro area. Simple classification as fixed-rate or floating-rate fails to fully capture loan sensitivity to changes in ECB policy rates. Kārlis Vilerts et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Peter Klenow explains how Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt's work transformed creative destruction from an evocative metaphor into a rigorous analytical framework that fundamentally altered how economists understand prosperity and technological progress. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Xavier Vives introduces a framework that outlines the differences between #fintech firms and traditional banks and how fintech affects frictions in lending. New tech influences the differentiation between banks and fintechs and the efficiency gap between them. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

You can find the summary of the new Geneva Report on the World Economy here: cepr.org/voxeu/column...

@kclausing.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld evaluate #tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy and conclude that, combined with the large income tax cuts, Trump’s tariffs will leave most Americans worse off. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Xueyue Liu, Yu Liu, Alexey Makarin, & Jaya Wen study whether export controls accelerate #innovation in targeted rivals using the US’ 2007 ‘China Rule’ as a case study. They find strong evidence of Chinese domestic innovation response. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Livio Stracca presents seven insights on redefining the monetary standard in the digital age, offering a perspective that bridges traditional central banking and the disruptive potential of digital #innovation. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Europe faces slowing growth, ageing populations, and structural shifts. Alfonso Gambardella, Florian Englmaier, & Maria Guadalupe discuss how organisational economics can illuminate the impact of structural forces on Europe and assist in policy design. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The EIB Investment Survey 2025 shows EU & US firms continue to invest, albeit w/weaker appetite. EU competitiveness will increasingly depend on the capacity to deliver the Draghi & Letta agendas. T Bending, M Ferrazzi, P Harasztosi, D Revoltella, H Tran, & V Žďárek cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Jon Danielsson & Robert Macrae argue that innovation-driven bubbles can yield real benefits when financed by equity rather than debt. As of now, they don't see an immediate cause for public concern. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

🎉CEPR is proud to announce that our podcast, VoxTalks Economics, presented by @talknormal.co.uk, won a Bronze Award in the 4th Annual Signal Awards! Thank you for supporting the podcast over the years and tuning in each week to hear from top economic thinkers. cepr.org/about/news/v... #EconSky

Barthelemy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei Levchenko, @nityanayar.bsky.social, & Hiroshi Toma show that trade reorientation mirrors political alliances more than comparative advantage. But, trade redirection has so far produced little loss in global welfare. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

To accompany the publication of their #PolicyInsight, VoxEU is re-promoting Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg's column from earlier this year that summarises what they refer to as 'a new curse of critical minerals' and how to avert it. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Martin Larch outlines a possible way forward on EU budget negotiations by linking EU funds to national reform and investment projects. Such a move offers a pragmatic 'middle way' out of the current 'bipolar' governance trap. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Konrad Kuhmann @latvijasbanka.lv analyses loan data to find that bank specialisation in borrower industries plays a meaningful role for the aggregate and distributional consequences of monetary policy. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

@enghin-atalay.bsky.social, Ali Hortacsu, Nicole Kimmel, & Chad Syverson argue that standard measurements understate true #productivity growth in the US #manufacturing sector, especially in industries were it is difficult to track changes in quality growth. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, & @zymek.bsky.social introduce the new Bilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) database, which tracks services flows between countries over time and at the detailed sector level. They document a declining distance elasticity for services trade. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Nobel Laureate Joel Mokyr, Avner Greif, & Guido Tabellini discuss their recent book in which they argue institutions and culture played a key role in setting Europe and China on divergent paths of economic and political development. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

European scholarly networks in the Middle Ages and early modern period were a key channel for the spread of knowledge across time and space. The long-lasting academic institutions made the difference. David De La Croix, Rossana Scebba, Chiara Zanardello cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Data from Japanese firms from 1997 to 2015 show that rising imports have led many firms to reduce their workforce, but firms that engaged in product switching experienced less severe employment losses. Tadashi Ito, Toshiyuki Matsuura cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Pollution registers can provide an actionable picture of climate transition and physical risks in a simplified and cost-effective framework, ultimately fostering a more resilient and sustainable global economy. Szilard Erhart, Sándor Szabó, Kornél Erhart cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky