Adam Posen (@piie.com & CEPR) joins @talknormal.co.uk to discuss how the multilateral order is changing, how countries are adjusting to the new global trade environment, and whether globalisation as we once knew it can return Recorded at the CEPR Symposium in Paris cepr.org/multimedia/f... #EconSky

🔷With the full-scale Russian invasion of #Ukraine rapidly approaching its 4th year, CEPR & VoxEU look back at through 2025 for our top articles on Ukraine 🇺🇦. #2025inReview #EconSky 👇

1/11 Many of our top VoxEU columns of 2025 tackled the topic of tariffs. Our 10 top pieces on tariffs show the development of the debate throughout the year 👇 #2025inReview #EconSky

Pierre-Louis Vezina, Cevat Giray Aksoy, and Piotr Lewandowski show that, far from displacing local businesses, Ukrainian refugees in Poland sparked an entrepreneurial boom as they inspired Polish entrepreneurs and created new supply chain opportunities. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Global services trade is expanding rapidly, & it is a prime channel for profit shifting. Alexander Klemm & Li Liu show that, at prevailing levels, withholding taxes curb profit-shifting channels w/out hampering countries' ability to import growth-enhancing services. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A dataset that records every earthquake shows that moderate earthquakes can still significantly reduce growth and have lasting effects, especially in low- and lower-middle-income economies. Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Government investment in firms has powerful effects on an economy's crisis resilience, with those effects depending on whether the government injects capital into financial or nonfinancial firms. Markus Haavio & Tuomas Takalo @suomenpankki.fi, Antti Ripatti cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Marcello Antonini & Joan Costa-i-Font find that individuals with better health are more supportive of fair health financing and equal access to care. Improving population health may bolster public backing for more equitable health systems. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Much of the decline of #manufacturing employment at the industry level in #Germany reflects a shift of manufacturing tasks into service sector firms rather than a disappearance of manufacturing work. Dominik Boddin & Thilo Kroeger cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Downside risks to euro area growth are at comparable levels to those during past crisis episodes and financial markets appear to be under-pricing those risks. The economy is left vulnerable to a sharp repricing if risk appetite returns. Frederik Andersen et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

High location premiums can account for the increase in house prices. Policies to address this crisis include building smaller houses in cities, providing efficient rail transit for commuting, & pricing parking for residents appropriately. Y River Chen, C Teulings cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Stronger policy frameworks - from credible inflation targeting to tighter macroprudential rules - now help emerging markets keep growth steadier and inflation contained during risk-off shocks. M Bolhuis, F Grigoli, M Kolasa, R Meeks, A Presbitero, Z Zhang cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Across the developing world, the realignment of production is likely to follow the realignment of #tariffs only where tariff changes are actually sufficient to affect trade flows. Fabien Forge, Jason Garred, Kyae Lim Kwon cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Exploiting a French teacher salary reform, Desislava Tartova (@pse.bsky.social) shows that uniformly increasing salaries improves workforce quality by disproportionately retaining better teachers. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Data on US congressional stock trades from 1995-2021 show while rank-and-file members do not systematically beat the market, once some assume leadership positions, their portfolios start to look very different & outperform regular members. Shang-Jin Wei, Yifan Zhou cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A London Economic Consensus? Amid today’s economic challenges, Andrés Velasco and Tim Besley discuss their new book The London Consensus with @talknormal.co.uk, exploring how policymakers might use it, and why no single paradigm can provide all the answers cepr.org/multimedia/l... #EconSky

The displacement of 1.8 million civilians from Northern Uganda to camps in Eastern Uganda pushed people out of agriculture and into non-agricultural activities and exacerbated spatial inequality. However, children benefitted from schooling in the camps. Ayah Bohsali cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Even more important after the US security strategy document. Our proposal for the future of European defense with @schularick.bsky.social @kiel.institute @voxeu.org and Philipp Hildebrand now in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

@olena-havrylchyk.bsky.social explains how European Central Securities Depositories operate, why Euroclear has become a critical chokepoint holding most immobilised Russian assets & several proposals to use those assets to support Ukraine's defence & reconstruction. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Many economies index their minimum wage to inflation. However, Isabel Di Tella (@mit.edu) shows that the timing and predictability of the policy matter for how inflationary shocks propagate. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

While both the #US and #Italy are running unsustainable fiscal policies, the immediate adjustments needed to restore US fiscal solvency are far greater than those required of Italy, argues Laurence Kotlikoff. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Haruka Uchida (UChicago) finds that 'blinding' - concealing candidate names during evaluations - eliminates the gap in conference acceptance rates between students and senior researchers. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The current exclusion of supranational EU bonds from main sovereign indices limits their investor base and translates into worse behaviour during crises. Giovanni Bonfanti @columbiauniversity.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Increases in Brazil's minimum wage from 2000-2009 show minimum wage policy can positively affect living standards for workers thought beyond the reach of labour law, with limited reallocation effects towards the informal sector. @fgerard.bsky.social et al. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A study of 30,000 Canadian labour agreements shows unions secure a wide range of enforceable rights, including scheduling protections, grievance procedures, and dismissal safeguards. Benjamin W. Arold, @elliottash.bsky.social, W. Bentley MacLeod, Suresh Naidu cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Simplifying #regulation in the absence of functioning digital markets risks entrenching the power of the largest #digital platforms & weakening Europeans’ already limited control over their data. Dennis Snower, Paul Twomey, Vicente Arias González cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A rise in government purchases makes firms overoptimistic about future demand. This sentiment channel overturns the standard theoretical result that public spending crowds out investment. M Bellifemine, @adriencouturier.bsky.social, J Tozzo cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

International #trade will continue to be important for economic performance, but the conditions that enabled export-led growth miracles are fundamentally changing, with profound implications for #development policy. Pinelopi Goldberg @yale.edu, Michele Ruta cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The US now actively challenges the institutions and norms it created. We are moving towards a world with higher trade barriers, weaker institutions, and more fragile growth. Gary Gensler, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social @upanizza.bsky.social @wederdim.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Across metro regions in Europe in the past 20 years, capital cities had the highest growth in productivity, but other cities lagged. Local productivity is more nuanced than simply “cities are good and other places are lagging”. P Proietti, L Dijkstra, M Kompil cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Joan Costa-i-Font, Richard G. Frank, and Nilesh Raut find that positive wealth shocks – from rising home prices or stock market gains – make individuals in the US significantly less likely to buy long-term care insurance and more likely to self-insure. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Laura Juarez and Fernanda Marquez-Padilla find that, in the United States, menopause leads to large declines in women’s probability of employment and increases the probability of a woman receiving social security benefits. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

@nickbloom.bsky.social P Bunn @paulmizen.bsky.social P Smietanka, & G Thwaites estimate that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6%-8%, w/ the impact accumulating gradually due to a combination of uncertainty, reduced demand, & misallocation of resources. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

M Giorcelli, Y Higuchi, Y Takayasu, & M Tanaka study the Japanese Productivity Program, a joint US-Japanese initiative to transfer American management & industrial knowledge to Japan after WWII. The programme helped firms grow in scale & management sophistication. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

While migration can partly offset population ageing, the scale required to fully offset the expected demographic drags substantially exceeds historical experience. Pablo García Guzmán, Federica Coelli, and Emily Nilsson examine the constraints. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

@carlbfrey.bsky.social & @pmllanos.bsky.social show that a higher share of carbon-intensive establishments lowered the probability of a 'Yea' vote in the 2009 House vote on the American Clean Energy and Security Act. District-level climate opinion boosted support. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Closing gender employment gaps and raising elderly labour market participation could substantially mitigate projected employment-to-population ratio declines in many ageing societies. P García Guzmán & F Coelli @ebrd.bsky.social, E Nilsson @warwickecon.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Gary Gensler, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social @upanizza.bsky.social @wederdim.bsky.social discuss the revised & expanded edition of The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration & how Trump's actions undermine his stated goal to "Make America Great Again" cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Martin Larch & Antonino Barbera Mazzola extend the European Fiscal Board's Forecast Tracker, adding forecasts underpinning the projections of member state budgetary plans, which allows for a more detailed analysis of fiscal policymaking in the EU. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

C Fuest, D Gros, P L Mengel, G Presidente, & C Rujan argue the EU Commission's proposed 2028-2034 Financial Framework prioritises large, highly prescriptive, & administratively complex collaboration schemes w/ little evidence that they foster disruptive #innovation. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

F Coelli, P García Guzmán, & E Nilsson discuss the macroeconomic impacts of ageing & how many regions are getting older before getting richer. Policy solutions include labour force participation by women & older adults, tech for productivity, & increased migration. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Pierre Dubois (@tse-fr.eu) argues that to promote sustained innovation in pharma alongside affordable access, drug-pricing policy must integrate global spillovers in design, such as through coordinated value-based pricing, global innovation funds, etc. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Domestic firm-to-firm transaction data & customs records show Italy's exposure to external risks, such as US tariffs and a sudden stop of Chinese supplies, is far larger than standard trade stats suggest. @fpconteduca.bsky.social @fabrizioleone.bsky.social et al cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Juan J. Cortina, Claudio Raddatz, Sergio L. Schmukler, & Tomás Williams document the rapid expansion of green bonds and loans, led by large corporations and particularly by European firms, while those in the US remain dominant in conventional borrowing. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

@katarzynabilicka.bsky.social, Michael P Devereux, & Irem Güçeri argue that the scale of profit shifting from high-tax to low-tax jurisdictions may be larger than many firm-level studies suggest - perhaps twice as large. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Consumer-to-business mobile payments in #Singapore led to increased small business formation & consumption, and banks reduced ATMs in historically cash-intensive areas while expanding credit provision. S Agarwal, W Qian, Y Ren, HT Tiffany Tsai, B Yeung cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Frederik Noack (UBC) discusses with @talknormal.co.uk the economic impact of biodiversity loss. From declining bird populations to rising pesticide use, he outlines the cascading effects on agriculture and the environment. 🎧 Listen: cepr.org/multimedia/c... #EconSky

Stefano Corradin, Alessandro Fontana, @chriskubitza.bsky.social, & Angela Maddaloni find that over the past decade, the balance sheets of euro area insurers have become less liquid and more sensitive to market conditions. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

E Jakucionyte & S Singh show how housing market thickness (how many buyers & sellers are active) affects renovation incentives of Soviet-era apartments in Lithuania. In thick markets, homeowners are more likely to move before gaining the full benefits of renovating. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Alexander Dück & Fabio Verona @suomenpankki.fi show that model uncertainty is the dominant constraint on systematic monetary policy design. Rules optimised across a wide range of models converge toward cautious and stable policy responses. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky