Join us! We are now accepting applications for the Global Linkages Lab, www.globallinkages.org here are the details :: apply.interfolio.com/176873

Super news for @brownuresearch.bsky.social and all. Let us all appreciate growth-openness link. Aghion at the news conference said he is worried about the protectionist wave and warned against obstacles for growth such as deglobalization and tariffs! He said openness is a driver of economic growth!

My new PS column argues that financial markets complacency in the face of US policy uncertainty is profitable for them: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/m...

It was an honor to do a fire side chat with Raghuram Rajan at this amazing conference in Chicago: chicagobooth.edu/research/fam... Finance for small firms and private sector development is more important than ever in a world where big actors like the US chose isolation over integration.

My septemeber PS piece on strongmen and interest rates: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

Administrative data on international portfolios shows that issuers' supply elasticity depends on how investors' demand elasticity changes with arbitrage deviations, from Bertaut, Faia, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Marchesini, Paetzold, and Schmitz https://www.nber.org/papers/w34275

Thrilled to talk about emerging market monetary policies and financial stability at this great conference organized by FLAR and hosted by Central Bank of Colombia: eventos.flar.net/annual-econo...

It was a pleasure to join the world trade dialogue! We need to navigate global uncertainty created by US policies to de-globalize and eliminate knowledge-based economies by diminishing universities. Global integration led to unprecented progress, lifting billions up. studiozx.de/events/world...

Credit support policies in the form of credit guarantees and central bank credit lines can help firms substitute in the event of evaporating external credit for domestic borrowing. Miguel Acosta-Henao, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Thank you Bank of Finland for inviting me to give a talk on tariffs and monetary policy, fantastic papers and conference: www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...

Thanks to all the presenters, discussants, organizers and our host CBRT for making our @nber.org conference an amazing event! Gita Gopinath's keynote posted here: imf.org/en/News/Arti... Videos of all the papers and the policy panel will be posted soon, here: nber.org/conferences/...

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20168 Global Networks, Monetary Policy, #Trade @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Can Soylu, Muhammed A. Yıldırım Access the paper and accompanying slides free! cepr.org/publications... #CEPR_IMF #CEPR_ITRE #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_MG

Work with us at globallinkages.org Be part of our colloborative hub, take part in research, seeking answers to global challenges, promoting evidence based international economic policies for global welfare. Our post-doc and pre-doc positions: apply.interfolio.com/165825 apply.interfolio.com/166437

Tariffs can be stagflationary in a global general equilibrium setting. The net impact of tariffs on inflation, employment, and the US dollar depends on the policy response of all countries in the trade war, from @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Soylu, and Yildirim https://www.nber.org/papers/w33686

Looking forward! @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social www.wcfia.harvard.edu/event/specia...

We are excited to announce that GLL is now live! www.globallinkages.org GLL explores globalization—and the costs of trying to undo it. We undertake, fund cutting-edge research, support collaboration, deliver insights to guide evidence based policy making for inclusive global growth and welfare.

In a new paper, we build a new NKOE global network model and decompose the impact of tariffs on inflation, output, and exchange rate into channels of demand, supply, monetary policy, sectoral nominal rigidities, inflation-exchange rate expectations and global I-O linkages channels.

Tariff-Threats that are later reversed and not implemented are self-defeating, leading to a 4.1\% appreciation of the USD, 0.6pp deflation, a 0.7 pp decline in output. US. Dollar appreciates less or can even depreciate under tariff threats, and increased global uncertainty due to these threats.

Liberation Day Tariffs+Retalation can lead to a decline of ↓ 1.6 pp in US output, an increase of ↑ 0.8 pp in US inflation and also a USD NEER Appreciation of 4.8%.

Our new paper builds a NKOE model to study interaction of monetary policy and trade frictions. Tariffs act as demand and supply shocks and lead to endogenous changes in global networks. Their impact depends on monetary policy's endogenous response both in tariff-putting and tariff-imposed countries.

How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? A key question given increased U.S. policy uncertainty. My op-ed @FT explains : www.ft.com/content/600d...

Thank you so much WorldBank and IFC for the launch of this great book and fantastic panel. How to finance firm growth is one of the key issues of our time especially for countries who need this most and suffer from high policy risk, here is the video: www.ifc.org/en/events/20...

Featured in the latest Digest: "Government Support and Corporate Debt Restructuring" https://www.nber.org/digest/202503/government-support-and-corporate-debt-restructuring

Looking forward!

Stand Up for Science rallies will be held in DC and state capitals on March 7th. Share with friends. Sign-up here to get email updates with details: www.eventbrite.com/e/stand-up-f...

Our work on inflation is cited by 2025 President's Report "robust demand coinciding with massive negative supply shocks put upward pressure on prices (Bernanke and Blanchard; di Giovanni et al.)" whitehouse.gov/cea/written-... We made this point first in 2022 ECB-Sintra (youtube.com/watch?v=Vk5V...)

It is great to talk to amazing @colbylsmith.bsky.social of the @data.ft.com. I will be discussing the macro effects of upcoming tariffs at ASSA2025, during my discussion of the fantastic paper by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrea Presbitero and Petia Topalova. ft.com/content/d6f5...

Using data on Chilean firms to examine whether credit lines and government-backed credit guarantees mitigated the impact of the withdrawal of international capital during the pandemic, from Acosta-Henao, Fernández, Gomez-Gonzalez, and Kalemli-Özcan https://www.nber.org/papers/w33283

Please submit your papers! www.nber.org/calls-papers...

Looking forward to my keynote together with great Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Sydney Ludvingson and the amazing papers at this fantastic conference on geopolitical fragmentation organized by De Nederlandsche Bank! www.dnb.nl/en/research/...

Amazing to participate in the 5th edition of this conference! When we started in 2020 online, this was unimaginable. Thanks to the fantastic new organizers and Princeton IES for hosting us! @anamarias.bsky.social @stefaniagaretto.bsky.social @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social @linnealorentzen.bsky.social

Last week's IMF 25th Annual Research Conference has featured great papers. Here is the video for the policy panel, moderated by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas that I have participated together with Isabel Schnabel, Ricardo Reis and Nathan Sheets: www.youtube.com/live/HI3RDdh...

Here is my first post in bluesky. We live in a world with many economic challenges and economists can provide answers to such complicated questions and solutions to problems. Especially academic economists should engage more in the economic policy debate, worldwide.