Hill-Burton Act hospital grants reduced out-of-hospital births and infant mortality, especially among non-white populations, but only when funds went to public hospitals, from Owen Thompson, Jason Fletcher, and Karin Wu www.nber.org/papers/w34976

High school grade point averages are the dominant predictor of academic success at public universities, from Theodore J. Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, and Kyle Du www.nber.org/papers/w34975

Financial noise in exchange rates and stock markets drives output gaps. In this study’s model, targeting a broad financial conditions index recruits arbitrageurs and dampens this noise, from Ricardo J. Caballero and Alp Simsek www.nber.org/papers/w34974

A study on the identification and estimation of dynamic matching models of the labor market shows that usual measures of sorting and monopsony power are biased, from Cristina Gualdani, Elena Pastorino, Áureo de Paula, and Sergio Salgado www.nber.org/papers/w34973

Proposing a new strategy to estimate reserve demand—a middle ground between reduced-form methods and fully structural quantitative approaches, from Ricardo Lagos and Gastón Navarro www.nber.org/papers/w34972

Studying how state Medicaid coverage of GLP-1s for weight management affects prescribing and spending, using staggered adoption across states, from Coady Wing, Wei-Lun Lo, Maddie Potter, Tarik Yuce, Alberto Ortega, @johncawley.bsky.social, Thuy Nguyen, and Kosali Simon www.nber.org/papers/w34949

Open call for papers: AI, Digitization, and Financial Markets. Conference to be held in Hyderabad, India on December 14–15, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on June 17, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...

Characterizing the maximum EPS solution to three companion papers, from Itzhak Ben-David and @alexchinco.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34971

Investigating how gun interest group money and public opinion shape state gun laws, from Takuma Iwasaki, Eric A. Baldwin, John J. Donohue, and Tai Markman www.nber.org/papers/w34970

When jobs are scarce, both men and women prefer that men work—but exposure to just six weeks of women working is enough to shift both partners' support for women's labor supply, from Yueh-ya Hsu, Reshmaan N. Hussam, Erin M. Kelley, and Gregory Lane www.nber.org/papers/w34969

On average national election winners benefit from an incumbency advantage, but this effect is short-lived and differs markedly across contexts, from Raphaël Descamps, Benjamin Marx, @vinpons.bsky.social, and Vincent Rollet www.nber.org/papers/w34968

Developing a spatial voting model in which two candidates from each party choose positions on a left-right spectrum, compete in (within-party) primaries, and then face off in a general election, from Ivo Welch www.nber.org/papers/w34967

Lower-income individuals experience a higher degree of correlation between labor earnings growth and stock returns, from Jason Scott, John B. Shoven, Sita Slavov, and John G. Watson www.nber.org/papers/w34966

Inner probabilities reveal LLM uncertainty: high-inner-confidence signals are more accurate and raise Sharpe ratios about 20 percent, while declared confidence is biased and brings no gains, from Hui Chen, Antoine Didisheim, and Luciano A. Somoza www.nber.org/papers/w34965

Linking AI publications to US Census microdata for 42K researchers shows a massive AI salary explosion (top 1 percent industry pay equals $1.94M) that is pulling talent out of universities, from Ufuk Akcigit, Craig A. Chikis, Emin Dinlersoz, and Nathan Goldschlag www.nber.org/papers/w34964

Working from home (WFH) raises fertility rates. Globally 0.3 extra kids per WFH couple, and in the US 0.5 extra kids per WFH couple, from Steven J. Davis, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, @nickbloom.bsky.social, Katelyn Cranney, Mathias Dolls, and Pablo Zarate www.nber.org/papers/w34963

People across the gun divide share a desire for safety, but disagree about whether lethal firearms provide it. Studying non-lethal firearms as one potential approach, from @marcellaalsan.bsky.social, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Stefanie Stantcheva www.nber.org/papers/w34962

Studying the reallocation of oil and gas wells as production declines. Aging wells pose environmental and safety risks, and the results speak to ongoing policy discussions, from Sarah C. Armitage, Judson Boomhower, and @catiehausman.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34961

Modeling a CEO looking to maximize EPS payout policy, from Itzhak Ben-David and @alexchinco.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34960

Featured in the latest Bulletin on Health: Selective Participation in Clinical Trials Biases Estimates of Side Effects www.nber.org/bh/20261/sel...

Providing a framework that shows blockchain technology is useful in traditional finance for data structure, but not for a trust model. Gains are largest if technology reduces intermediation rents, from Eric Budish and Adi Sunderam www.nber.org/papers/w34959

Recovering the cultural geography of the United States from first-name patterns in census data spanning 1850 to 1930, from Taylor Jaworski and Erik O. Kimbrough www.nber.org/papers/w34958

Open call for papers, Tariffs and Economic Performance. Conference to be held in Cambridge, MA on April 1, 2027. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on December 16, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...

Analysis of school assignment in Oakland shows that simple changes to priorities can meaningfully reduce segregation, accounting for behavioral responses to offers, from Jesse Rothstein, Ini Umosen, and Christopher R. Walters www.nber.org/papers/w34957

Featured in the latest Digest: Pass-Through of Tariffs: Evidence from European Wine Imports www.nber.org/202603/diges...

Comparing physician incomes using four developed countries’ tax data shows doctors in top percentiles of the income distribution, especially in the US and in certain specialties, from Buehler, @gottliebecon.bsky.social, Hicks, Laun, Palme, Polyakova, Udalova, and Ventura www.nber.org/papers/w34956

Doctor supply is capped by training bottlenecks, so mid-level employment has grown to meet demand. Entry barriers and practice restrictions are important for competition policy, from @gottliebecon.bsky.social and Sean Nicholson www.nber.org/papers/w34955

Pandemic stimulus boosted auto purchases by 5.5M vehicles but explains less than 20 percent of the surge in car prices. Trade-ins expand used supply, dampening inflation in durable goods markets, from David W. Berger, Geoffrey Gee, Nick Turner, and Eric Zwick www.nber.org/papers/w34954

Open call for papers, Climate Finance Conference. Conference to be held in Cambridge, MA on October 22–23, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on April 30, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...

Studying where AI actually helps in science by modeling four stages of research. AI excels at screening vast possibilities, but human judgment remains key for new ideas, from Ajay K. Agrawal, John McHale, and Alexander Oettl www.nber.org/papers/w34953

Grade inflating high-school teachers affect their students' long-term outcomes, from Jeff T. Denning Rachel L. Nesbit, Nolan G. Pope, and Merrill Warnick www.nber.org/papers/w34952

A series of randomized controlled trials evaluated the impact of data-driven targeting rules to allocate scarce bandwidth in call times for a program providing agricultural advice, from Susan Athey, Shawn Cole, Shanjukta Nath, and Jessica Zhu www.nber.org/papers/w34951

A randomized controlled trial with an education technology application shows that personalization increases engagement. Benefits are larger for users that gain access after the system has scaled to more users, from Agrawal, Athey, Kanodia, Nath, and Palikot www.nber.org/papers/w34950

When firms take political stances, workers sort accordingly. Firm announcements post Dobbs reshaped who applies and quits, and how politics increasingly organize the labor market, from Pawel Adrjan, Svenja Gudell, Emily Nix, Allison Shrivastava, Jason Sockin and Evan Starr www.nber.org/papers/w34948

Ex ante deep learning dramatically outperforms geophysical models of proposed Clean Water Act reforms. The Supreme Court's 2023 Sackett case deregulates many streams and wetlands, from Simon Greenhill, Brant J. Walker, and @joseph-s-shapiro.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34947

Featured in the latest Digest: The Earnings of Community College Bachelor's Degree Graduates www.nber.org/digest/20260...

Causal machine learning reveals that the heterogeneous impact of job displacement can be predicted in advance; substantial heterogeneity exists within firms and education groups, from Susan Athey, Lisa K. Simon, Oskar Nordström Skans, Johan Vikström and Yaroslav Yakymovych www.nber.org/papers/w34946

Globally comparable corporate taxable income elasticity estimates from 16 countries show large differences in revenue and efficiency effects of tax rate changes, from Agostini, Asatryan, Bach, et al. www.nber.org/papers/w34945

Poor weather when touring a college campus reduces students' likelihood of applying, from Olivia Feldman, Joshua M. Hyman, and @mattmcgann.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34944

How external conditions, state capacity, and policy choices shape development. Analyzing shifting growth drivers, including trade, technology, and the rise of services. Discussing persistent inequality and distributional tensions, from Dupas, Koujianou Goldberg, and Pande www.nber.org/papers/w34943

The dominance of the dollar in the denomination of international debt securities goes in waves. This study finds no evidence of trend dollarization or de-dollarization, from Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Eswar S. Prasad, Előd Takáts, and Judit Temesvary www.nber.org/papers/w34942

The 2016 Brexit referendum generated a sharp decline in UK net migration relative to Germany, driven primarily by a contraction in immigration rather than simple outward flight, from Assaf Razin www.nber.org/papers/w34941

Firms adjust AI/green investments in response to market reactions to announcements of such emerging-technology investment plans, from Sean S. Cao, Itay Goldstein, Jie He, and Yabo Zhao www.nber.org/papers/w34940

Using unique text-based data tracking the introduction and diffusion of thousands of new technologies shows how the pace of technology creation drives the skill premium, from Tarek Alexander Hassan, Aakash Kalyani, and Pascual Restrepo www.nber.org/papers/w34939

Anti-fraud lawsuits targeting hospitals for over-admitting patients saved Medicare money without increasing mortality, from David H. Howard and Jetson Leder-Luis www.nber.org/papers/w34938

AI agents put in simulations of novel settings offer an alternative for applying theory, requiring minimal or no modifications, from Benjamin S. Manning and John J. Horton www.nber.org/papers/w34937

Analysis of NYC data shows that resource augmentation policies (such as closures) generate larger achievement gains than reallocation policies that change student/school matching, from Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag A. Pathak, and Christopher R. Walters www.nber.org/papers/w34936

Tariffs can stimulate domestic entry and benefit some workers, but the gains are unevenly distributed, from Stéphane Auray, Michael B. Devereux, and Aurélien Eyquem www.nber.org/papers/w34935

How adopting an automated review monitoring system allows restaurants to translate consumer feedback into operational quality improvements, from Guangyu Cao, Shenghao He, and Ginger Zhe Jin www.nber.org/papers/w34934

Most 911 calls are not about crime, yet police respond by default. Formal alternatives are rare outside the biggest cities—a product of institutional design, not public preference, from Bocar A. Ba www.nber.org/papers/w34933