Ignoring the source of variation in tariff levels yields misleading conclusions regarding the effects of tariff changes, from Andrew Greenland, James Lake, and John Lopresti www.nber.org/papers/w34429

Pollen increases 911 calls, from Shooshan Danagoulian, Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Alberto Ortega www.nber.org/papers/w34428

Do PGS capture genetic endowments? Using a latent genetic measure, combining SNPs with ADHD symptoms, parents compensate for kids’ ADHD risk. PGS estimates flip the story, from Francesco Agostinelli and Zach Weingarten www.nber.org/papers/w34427

Private debt can be viewed as the emergence of a new technology that facilitated the expansion of the high-yield corporate debt market into the middle market, from Victoria Ivashina www.nber.org/papers/w34426

Announcing a new Post-Doctoral Fellowship, New Perspectives on Agricultural Economics. Deadline to apply December 4, 2025, at 5 pm EST. Full details available www.nber.org/calls-papers...

Defendants guilty of identical DWI offenses face sharply different outcomes by race, gender, and resources, revealing systemic inequality in punishment beyond, from Jeffrey T. Denning, Benjamin Hansen, Lars Lefgren, Emily C. Leslie, and Cody Tuttle www.nber.org/papers/w34425

Leading AI firms claim to prioritize social welfare. How should firms with a social mandate price and deploy their AIs? From Nils H. Lehr and Pascual Restrepo www.nber.org/papers/w34424

A study of what happens when all economically valuable work can be done with compute. When bottlenecks disappear, wages fall to their compute-equivalent level, from Pascual Restrepo www.nber.org/papers/w34423

Long, exclusive bank relationships lead to larger loans and less collateral, and banks reestablish some relationships after borrower default, from Howard Bodenhorn and Youwei Xing www.nber.org/papers/w34422

The 1975 Voting Rights Act extension lowered mortality for most nonwhite groups but raised it for white adults and older nonwhite men, patterns consistent with status threat, from Atheendar Venkataramani, Rourke O'Brien, Elizabeth F. Bair, and Christopher A. Lowenstein www.nber.org/papers/w34421

The stock market participants are neither perfectly rational nor perfectly efficient. Yet to what degree? Toward a practical baseline of objective expectation formation, from Francesco Bianchi, Do Q. Lee, Sydney C. Ludvigson, and Sai Ma www.nber.org/papers/w34420

The Ramsey inverse-elasticity prescription can be inverted if the tax system is set by taxpayers who are overly confident of their ability to substitute away from taxed goods, from Luca Micheletto, Dylan T. Moore, Daniel Reck and Joel Slemrod www.nber.org/papers/w34419

Analysis of the optimal tax parameters and the relative performance of two types of dual-regime systems: threshold and minimum tax systems, from Rishi R. Sharma, Joel Slemrod, Michael Stimmelmayr, John D. Wilson, and Peter Choi www.nber.org/papers/w34418

Agricultural innovation increased dramatically in response to environmental damage from the American Dust Bowl, substantially mitigating its economic impacts, from Jacob Moscona www.nber.org/papers/w34438

Fraud needs friends. When work went remote, collusion got harder and corporate misconduct fell, from John M. Barrios, Jessie Jianwen Guo and Yanping Zhu www.nber.org/papers/w34417

New research checks 20-year-old predictions about global currency systems: Although the world has seen financial opening and movement away from intermediate exchange rate regimes as projected, movement has been slower than projected, from Eichengreen and Razo-Garcia www.nber.org/papers/w34416

A novel LLM-based measure of bureaucratic ideology is extracted from 19th century Indian Office reports, offering new insights into how beliefs shape policy implementation, from Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag and Christian Maruthiah www.nber.org/papers/w34415

Providing cash within days of a flood, vs months later, does more than shift the timing of benefits—it leads to overall improvements in food security and mental health, from Christian, Dunsch, Heirman, Kelley, Kondylis, Lane, Waidler, Adusumalli, Batmunkh and Malhotra www.nber.org/papers/w34414

Studying how Elon Musk’s partisan actions have impacted Tesla vehicle sales in the United States, from Kenneth T. Gillingham, Matthew Kotchen, James A. Levinsohn, and Barry J. Nalebuff www.nber.org/papers/w34413

A short-lived tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Cook County, IL reduced purchases by 22.5 percent but after its repeal, purchases bounced back to baseline quantities, from Felipe Lozano Rojas, @johncawley.bsky.social, and David E. Frisvold www.nber.org/papers/w34412

Simulating economic developments as if the discretionary fiscal stimulus enacted in the past two recessions had not occurred and additional automatic fiscal stabilizers had been deployed instead, from Karen Dynan and Douglas Elmendorf www.nber.org/papers/w34411

Both macroprudential regulation and bailouts are essential to manage crises. Limiting either component can lead to welfare losses, highlighting that these policies are complementary, from Gianluca Benigno, @arebucci.bsky.social, and Aliaksandr Zaretski www.nber.org/papers/w34410

Studying the effect of "Liberation Day" on international financial markets through the lens of international equity positions and exchange rates, from Hélène Rey and Vania Stavrakeva www.nber.org/papers/w34409

Uncertainty about the distribution of future tariffs dampens the response of trade to persistent reforms and strengthens the response to transitory reforms, from Joseph B. Steinberg www.nber.org/papers/w34408

Surveying the evidence on intergenerational mobility studies that use alternative measures with a focus on health, consumption and life satisfaction, from Jonathan Davis, Nathan Deutscher, and @bhashmazumder.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34407

Providing comprehensive evidence on how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation, from Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, and Edson R. Severnini www.nber.org/papers/w34406

Workers earning minimum wages typically show stronger future careers, and state minimum wage policies do not significantly alter these relative trajectories, from Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Louis J. Maiden www.nber.org/papers/w34405

Consistent with models of extrapolative expectations, rate hikes reduce prices and investor demand more sharply in overpriced markets, underscoring the stabilizing role of monetary policy, from Nina Biljanovska, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Amir Kermani, and Rui C. Mano www.nber.org/papers/w34404

Repealing certificate of need laws is associated with short-run reductions in cancer mortality but leaves cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates unchanged, from Jonathan H. Cantor, Jill Horwitz, @cwhaley.bsky.social, and Anthony Yu www.nber.org/papers/w34403

Procyclical stocks, those whose cash flows rise with expected economic growth, earn higher average returns than countercyclical stocks, from William N. Goetzmann, Akiko Watanabe, and Masahiro Watanabe www.nber.org/papers/w34402

US solar panel tariffs shifted production from China but reduced US domestic employment and welfare, from Todd D. Gerarden, Bryan K. Bollinger, Kenneth Gillingham, and Daniel Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34401

Subsidizing contraception has large and persistent effects on the choice of contraceptive method, resulting in significantly fewer pregnancies and abortions in the US, from @marthajbailey.bsky.social, Rebolledo, Gorgulu, Figone, Lang, Prettyman, and Dalton www.nber.org/papers/w34400

Low net wealth-to-income households repay debt with stimulus checks rather than consume. Debt-price schedules rising with debt explain this, altering the nature of fiscal stimulus, from Gizem Koşar, Davide Melcangi, @pilossopher.bsky.social, and David G. Wiczer www.nber.org/papers/w34399

A standard debt overhang model with liquidity constraints to guide the design and interpretation of a collateralized debt modification experiment on a publicly traded lender’s delinquent vehicle loans to minibus entrepreneurs, from Eaglin, Gupta, Mezzanotti, and Zinman www.nber.org/papers/w34398

Proposing a novel measure of fiscal capacity—the debt/GDP ratio above which the government must raise surpluses to keep the debt safe—and finding it is about 180 percent for the US, from Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh www.nber.org/papers/w34397

Analysis of German elections shows female candidates underperform mainly because parties nominate them in less favorable districts, not due to voter bias or candidate traits, from Thomas Fujiwara, Hanno Hilbig, and Pia Raffler www.nber.org/papers/w34396

Proposing a new LLM-based survey framework that enables retrospective coverage, economic reasoning, dynamic effects, and clean identification, from Jing Cynthia Wu, Jin Xi, and Shihan Xie www.nber.org/papers/w34308

Log-linear relative asset demand (the basis of Demand System Asset Pricing) is shown to represent a radical deviation from traditional investment and asset pricing models, from Narayana R. Kocherlakota www.nber.org/papers/w34395

Using a structural approach to quantify the distortions induced by career concerns in the FOMC finds that members' career concerns improve the welfare of an unbiased principal, from Matias Iaryczower, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, and Paola Moscariello www.nber.org/papers/w34394

Factor endowment shifts toward capital and skilled labor are more important than productivity catch-up or trade barriers for global trends in productivity and sectoral dominance, from Ting-Wei Lai, Shin-Kun Peng, Raymond G. Riezman, and Ping Wang www.nber.org/papers/w34393

Examining the effects of tariffs along the supply chain using product-level data from a large US wine importer in the context of the 2019–21 US tariffs on European wines, from Aaron B. Flaaen, Ali Hortaçsu, Felix Tintelnot, Nicolás Urdaneta, and Daniel Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34392

China’s college expansion reshaped US higher education, spurring master’s growth, drawing more American and international students, and boosting college-towns’ economies, from Ruixue Jia, Gaurav Khanna, Hongbin Li, and Yuli Xu www.nber.org/papers/w34391

Vertical integration in Chinese films raises welfare on average, but reduces welfare when films are close substitutes and there is limited downstream competition, from Charles Hodgson and Shilong Sun www.nber.org/papers/w34390

Providing systematic evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of war using a new dataset covering 115 conflicts and 145 countries over the past 75 years, from Efraim Benmelech and Joao Monteiro www.nber.org/papers/w34389

Examining the causal effects of cellphone bans in Florida on student test scores, suspensions, and absences, from David N. Figlio and Umut Özek www.nber.org/papers/w34388

Studying the advertising and consumer habits of well-known, intrinsically similar brands, based on the idea that consumers are more likely to demand a good when they recall the pleasure it has previously given them, from Bordalo, Burro, Gennaioli, Nacamulli, and Shleifer www.nber.org/papers/w34387

Technological progress over the 20th century has consistently increased demand for occupations with higher education requirements, occupations that pay higher wages, and occupations with a greater fraction of female workers, from Liu, Papanikolaou, Schmidt, and Seegmiller www.nber.org/papers/w34386

Explaining how ordinary families saved a lot for retirement before the creation of Social Security, from Vellore Arthi, Gary Richardson, and Mark Van Orden www.nber.org/papers/w34385

Studying the optimal path of Social Security benefits for an individual who has retired with a stock of wealth, faces stochastic mortality, and has no access to annuities and no preferences for bequests, from Liran Einav and Amy Finkelstein www.nber.org/papers/w34384

Studying how ethnic identification varies with education among disadvantaged minorities in Romania, from Andreea Mitrut, Gabriel Kreindler, Margareta Matache, Andrei Munteanu, and Cristian Pop-Eleches www.nber.org/papers/w34383