Fed Sign of the Times:

Presume he can apply to Trump's lawfare slush fund for restitution...

Tell me you might bomb Iran this weekend without telling me... Trump was scheduled to spend the night at Bedminster after a campaign rally on Long Island. Now he's going back to the White House (and still skipping Don Jr's wedding).

And so it begins... with markets betting the first rate move under Kevin Warsh will be a rate increase:

It is, of course, all about him.

👇

*TRADERS FULLY PRICE QUARTER-POINT FED HIKE BY END OF 2026

Shots fired: “Inflation is not headed in the right direction... I would support removing the ‘easing bias’ language in our policy statement..." And: "I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon.” --Fed Governor Chris Waller

NEC Director Hassett again saying Powell cut rates before the election to help Democrats. 👎

The footnotes have gotta be lit...

Our SCOTUS reporters think it's tied to the Slaughter decision (FTC) and they want the two decisions to cohere. So it's taking longer to write. BTW, all the legal scholars I've talked to think they will rule in her favor.

Bill Dudley channels Rudi Dornbusch: financial crises often take much longer to show up than people expect, and then they hit much faster than expected. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Trump loses ballroom brawl: www.politico.com/news/2026/05...

Trump pardons himself www.politico.com/news/2026/05...

This is going like Dems would have scripted it: A late Trump endorsement after Cornyn/Senate Republicans incinerated ~$100M trying to nuke Ken Paxton as an impeached adulterer who violated ethics left and right.

Markets fall, yields rise, oil jumps - and just like that: *TRUMP SAYS HE HAS CALLED OFF PLANNED STRIKE ON IRAN TOMORROW

Very sorry to hear Ned Phelps has died at 92. Very nice, very smart man. He taught me a lot. RIP

Dept of Just-When-You-Think-He-Can't-Go-Lower: Taking $1.7 billion dollars of taxpayer money -> your money - to pay off people who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Well worth reading. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/m...

I'm old enough to remember when the US government had ethics rules. And astonishingly, officials were actually expected to obey them. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

It seems Mr Market has finally realized...there's a war going on. And we're not winning.

*XI: CHINA-US RELATIONS CAN ONLY BE IMPROVED, NOT WORSENED That bad, eh?

Reuters: Trump clears H200 chip sales to 10 China firms Secretary Bessent: "Well, that's news to me."

Feeling overwhelmed with all of this. LISTEN. Another Louisiana resident (Marshawn is the only name we have) testifies against the state’s racial gerrymander, speaking truth to power up and down the hearing room and predicts how this story will end. Speak your truth, fight and believe.

@bostonfed.bsky.social President Susan Collins goes there: "While it is not in my most likely outlook, I could envision a scenario in which some policy tightening is needed to ensure that inflation returns durably to 2 percent in a timely manner."

Now THAT was an ugly PPI. 6% YoY? Why, that's (checks notes) Joe Biden numbers, Mr President... 30-year over 5% and we have a 30-year auction today.

Senate vote on Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve Board scheduled for 2pm today. Given paperwork, etc, he may not be sworn in for a couple of days. Powell's term ends Friday. Miran's term ends when Warsh is sworn in.

For once he might be telling the truth

Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as @federalreserve.gov Governor. Confirmation as Chair likely tomorrow.

Here's a graph showing interest payments from 1792 to present. The US has a problem, stemming from historically high primary deficits coupled w/ interest rates that have somewhat rebounded. But if we hadn't done the Bush and Trump tax cuts, we wouldn't: the high primary deficits come from tax cuts

The three Fed bias dissenters were not alone. Collins agrees, as Warsh's path gets more difficult. I'm talking with Mary Daly at 12:30 EDT. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

*DOJ PROBING $2.6B IN OIL TRADES RELATED TO IRAN WAR: ABC Overdue. But what if the trades are coming from inside the house?

*TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN’T AGREE TO DEAL, THE BOMBING STARTS 'Twas ever thus

So very appropriate on Cinco de Mayo

Started/Going: Iran media says US warship hit by missiles; US says it was not. Good Monday morning, global Wall Street...

Gotta love it. Golden Tempo wins the Kentucky Derby. Cherie DeVaux first female trainer to win the Derby.

WSJ reporting Spirit Airlines has not been able to reach a bailout deal with creditors and the government, and is preparing to shut down.

Jay's last news conference has attracted quite a crowd. Prices soaring on the secondary market...

WTI: $105 BRENT: $117 Based on past history, we should expect a Trump tweet soon suggesting a deal to open the Strait is imminent.

👇🏻

Started/Going: how oil experts see the crude supply at the end of the year. Yes, the blue line is end 2026.

Presuming a sentient judge will 86 this Comey indictment as soon as it crosses their desk. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Some sad little people at the DOJ.... The new indictment is "related to a photo last May that Comey posted, in which the numbers 86 and 47 had been formed by sea shells. Critics said that could have been a reference to killing Trump, the 47th president."

Ummm... www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/is-the-jus...

Looks like they are letting the president write the government's appeals now. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

*UAE DECIDES TO EXIT OPEC, OPEC+ STARTING MAY 1 Wow

Step 1. Unequivocally condemn political violence and those urging violent actions. Step 2. Recognize that if you fail to unequivocally condemn Trump’s routine employment of violent rhetoric, no one is taking your histrionics against Democrats seriously right now.

Wednesday a Fed rate decision and Chair Jay Powell's likely news conference. Because that morning, the Senate Banking Committee should approve Kevin Warsh's nomination succeed Powell. The Supreme Court also issues orders at that time, and has the opportunity to do the funniest thing...

Many reporters knee-jerk reaction to the WHCD shooting is the cliché line: "raises questions about the Secret Service." That raises questions about the reporters...and their ignorance of how presidential protection works (and it DID work Saturday night). www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/a-quick-an...

Sen Tillis says something weird on MTP: he's okay with Trump demanding the Fed bring inflation down. That's not what Trump has been demanding. He wants the Fed to cut interest rates, which could raise inflation.