Really, everyone following Trump's Iran war should read this. Bet you weren't thinking about this at all... www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

“Whoso pulleth out this sword of this stone and anvil...

On @bloombergtv.bsky.social, #Fed Governor Stephen Miran kind of sums up where the Open Market Committee is now, four days into Trump's Iran War: "I think (Fed policy makers) are more generally where they were last week. And it's just too early to change your mind."

This is cartoonish. Arrogant and silly. Who is he trying to impress? (Rhetorical Q, don't answer)

*SPAIN SAYS TRUMP MUST RESPECT INTERNATIONAL LAW OVER TRADE Bwaa-ha-ha-ha-ha

Trump's Iran war is complicating monetary policy, @minneapolisfed.bsky.social President Neel Kashkari tells me. www.minneapolisfed.org/speeches/202...

Operation Epic Oil Spike continues:

Operation Epic Market Slide continues:

GTFO:

If we have to live in this insane world right now, here's some good news: www.self.com/story/crying...

Although ISM Manufacturing remained positive (52.4, down from 52.6) in February, prices paid has to give @federalreserve.gov officials pause. 70.5 percent, an 11.5 pp jump from January's reading of 59% and its highest reading since June 2022. Tariffs get the blame, companies say.

What does Joe Biden have to do with this badly done Pentagon briefing? Other than propaganda?

Someone has studied Colin Powell's TV performances. But he is no Colin Powell.

It's been suggested to me that a lot of lives could be saved if he just bombed the servers on which the Epstein files are stored.

The dog is wagged again

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Major props to Anthropic for refusing to accede to the Defense Department's desire to be able to use AI against the American people. www.anthropic.com/news/stateme...

I've been watching or reporting on State of the Union speeches since 1985. This one is by any and every measure the worst. A litany of lies interrupted by insults wrapped up in a campaign speech topped by obituaries. The good news is people will remember the tone; nobody will remember what he said.

What if...we only noted the things he says that are true?

What does America remember about last year's Trump State of the Union speech? Those who bothered to watch remember...it was long. What will people remember about this year? Likely nothing more than it was long. He'll do something to change the narrative by the weekend.

Got to root for Anthropic to hold the line here www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

So it is reported that Trump will call for new...tax cuts...to make people feel better about the economy. Because what's another trillion or ten added to the national debt?

OBTW, your by-now regular reminder that winter storms do not have names.

*TRUMP SAYS HE HAS JUST SIGNED GLOBAL 10% TARIFF This would be under Section 122, which allows tariffs up to 15% for 150 days to deal with balance of payments problems. A US trade deficit is a questionable application. But no way does it get to SCOTUS in 150 days. So this probably stays. 1/5

This is quite a tantrum he's throwing.

That trade has been going on for a while. Two people heavily involved are Howard Lutnick's sons, who run Cantor Fitzgerald now.

Another data nerd point to make: the big swings in 2025 imports and exports attributed to gold and silver do not get counted in GDP. So net exports added just 0.08% to Q4 growth. www.bea.gov/help/faq/1478

The BEA shutdown impact calculation is basically based on subtracting from government spending the pay furloughed workers would have received. Because those workers received back pay, the 1 pp decline in GDP attributed to the government shutdown will be made up in Q1, so expect a rebound.

Q4 GDP at 1.4% is significantly slower than forecast. BEA says the government shutdown cut 1 pp from the number. See BEA methodology here: www.bea.gov/help/faq/1483

He's either making it up, or leaking embargoed information

Have to say the new U2 EP is their best work in decades. A somewhat violent objection to the destructuon of the Trump administration. This song a cri de coeur for Renée Good in Minneapolis youtube.com/watch?v=Y3zi...

Technically, no. He can stay as chair of the FOMC even if he's not a governor. If the rest of the Committee wants him to. L

Republic Airways is Delta Airlines way of saying "we hate you" to frequent fliers.

The Fed outlook is more hawkish than thought, with "several" suggesting a "two-sided" risk assessment at their Jan 28 meeting - the first warning in years rate hikes were even a topic. For now, unlikely, but if inflation doesn't move down as expected, we could see that warning noted explicitly.

NEC Director Kevin Hassett calls for @newyorkfed.org researchers to be "disciplined" for a study that shows US companies bear nearly 90% of the Trump tariff burden. Indeed, the NY Fed conclusion differs from the Kiel Institute, which estimates 94%; and the CBO, which estimates 95%...

“You want ICE agents to have to identify themselves before they try to kidnap or kill you, but you don’t want to have to present a birth certificate to be able to vote” I mean… yes

All of us, and our children, have to hope corporate CEOs will not see this as a license to destroy.

It never ceases to shock me that Trump can continually find new and more serious ways to ruin the country, the world, and now the planet.

Read 'em and weep:

Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.

Not to pick on the NYT, but this... "the situation, on paper at least, has gotten only somewhat worse, but not significantly, under Mr. Trump...a $23.1 trillion shortfall...rather than a $21.8 trillion one, a $1.4 trillion wider gap." When $1.4 trillion is not a "significant" amount.

Um...that would be a hard "no."

You wonder how some people can sleep at night. And if they can, how tiny their hearts must be.

Rather disgraceful performance by the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. If Bo Nix hadn't been hurt...

Amazing, fabulous halftime show. Bravo, Bad Bunny.

Watching from the Delta lounge at JFK.

Getting very close... Cold Weather Advisory for NYC: 1:00 PM 2/8 - 10:00 AM 2/9. Very cold wind chills expected. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 17 below. Info: www.weather.gov/okx

It's that "death" part that sort of gets one's attention...

No. Never. And thats me being polite www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/u...

Amazon’s 2026 capex guidance is a range from $200 billion to full white collar unemployment, whichever happens first