Every post about college football this year must begin with "Wait...whut?"

Trump responds decisively to China's new rare earths trade restrictions by raising import taxes on American companies and consumers.

*TRUMP BUDGET CHIEF VOUGHT SAYS LAYOFFS HAVE BEGUN Just another, another AYFKM day

I have no words. Just another AYFKM day in the United States.

Lost in all the news this morning is the fact that it was a very bad night in Philadelphia.

Two hours in Trump-Land: *HAMAS NEGOTIATING CHIEF ANNOUNCES DEAL TO END WAR WITH ISRAEL *US TREASURY INTERVENED IN ARGENTINA FX MARKETS ON THURSDAY *NEW YORK AG LETITIA JAMES INDICTED BY DOJ: CNN, AP

*HAMAS NEGOTIATING CHIEF ANNOUNCES DEAL TO END WAR WITH ISRAEL

Fed Governor: *BARR: PEOPLE WORKING ON DATA AT BLS ARE 'QUIET HEROES'

It would save us all a lot of time if we didn't have to fact-check his false statements. Just note the couple of things he says that might be true.

Timely reminder that central bank decision-making isn't easy in today's economic environment. From @economistmeg.bsky.social on.ft.com/48mTUnb

Ghosts of 1999, 2007: Last month #Fed's Powell said:  “equity prices are fairly highly valued” and today the #BOE Financial Policy Committee warned "On a number of measures, equity market valuations appear stretched, particularly for technology companies focused on Artificial Intelligence (AI)."

*TRUMP TO HOST CABINET MEETING ON THURSDAY, LEAVITT SAYS No word on whether this is a tuneup meeting, or an attempt to break the 3hr, 16m record he set last time.

College football NIL payments have leveled the playing field. The great teams are now just the very good. The not-so-good are okay and can pull off upsets. Which happened big time today.

Was just thinking people who work at Intercontinental Exchange in Chicago might not want to be wearing company-logo clothing this week....

#Fed's Stephen Miran tells me on @bloombergtv.bsky.social that if service price inflation rises, "the benign inflation forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as a result.” Then ISM reported services prices rose. Also says his dot plot isn't much different than others except for this year.

A well-argued pushback against the conventional wisdom, and that which goes (far) beyond conventional...

It is important to keep in mind that the president has the ability to fire federal workers at any time (providing proper procedures are followed). So the government shutdown would be an excuse, not a reason for any job cuts. And since it's Russ Vought, they likely would have happened in any case.

Trump loses the Lisa Cook case for now. Supreme Court "defers" a judgement on his request to be able to fire her now, while her case goes through the justice system.

BUT... ADP says it used most recent QCEW figures to rebenchmark its figures. So September was revised down by 43,000. Accounts for part of the August revision as well. Very confusing.

Rut-roh. ADP says the economy lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September. August revised down from +54,000 to -3000. ADP measures only private sector employment. But that's what the Fed is focused on. Possibility of no NFP on Friday raises the import of ADP this week.

Biggest waste of time: interviewing members of Congress on the government shutdown. Republicans are blaming Democrats. Democrats are blaming Republicans (and Trump). Nobody - nobody - is saying what should be done.

All of the Bears Were Fat, but Chunk Was the Fattest of All www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/s...

We are there:

It looks like Republican and Democratic leaders reached agreement at their White House meeting - on whom to blame for the government shutdown coming Wednesday. Each side has generously agreed to say it's the other party's fault.

Trump's Gaza peace plan names him chair of the "Board of Peace" that will oversee the territory. A "Trump economic development plan" will guide rebuilding. Reporters should ask if he will commit that none of his relatives, associates, or companies will be involved in or profit from rebuilding Gaza.

It's The Guns

This is UFB:

How does Comey get a fair, impartial jury? This is just one half-hour of tweets: Donald J. Trump: JAMES COMEY IS A DIRTY COP.  Donald J. Trump: Whether you like Corrupt James Comey or not, and I can’t imagine too many people liking him, HE LIED! 1/2

*CANADA'S CARNEY: WE'RE LIVING THROUGH RUPTURE, NOT A TRANSITION Good way to put it

Questions about the #Fed? We have a few... @richmondfed.bsky.social President Tom Barkin joins me on @bloombergtv.bsky.social and radio at 7:30 am EDT!

Can they just drop it off at the nearest Whole Foods?

Another #Fed Cook amicus brief from distinguished economics and law professors. It reads like a Fed Jackson Hole invitation list: Judith Chevalier, John Coates, Darrell Duffie, Claudia Goldin, Jeffrey Gordon, Oliver Hart, Simon Johnson, Kathryn Judge, 1/2

Lisa Cook's filing with SCOTUS argues (as she did in lower courts) "for cause" is limited to in-office behavior, that allowing her firing would give the president "at will" ability to dismiss Fed officials, potentially creating "chaos" in financial markets, 1/4

For policy and the public, very little. It would not change the interest rate. It would change the rate the Fed "targets." Essentially changing the rate they use to measure rates on a daily basis to ensure they are where they want them.

Major change in Fed operations proposed by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: change the central bank's benchmark operating target rate from low-liquidity fed funds to Treasury general collateral repo.

Link to the Fed Chairs/Treasury Secretaries/CEA Members amicus filing in #Fed Cook: www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25...

Poetry in the central bankers/TSecs/CEA members #FED Cook amicus filing: "Central bank independence is the solution that Congress and the President have chosen, effectively tying their hands, like Ulysses as he passed the sirens, to protect against the risk that monetary policy will be mishandled."

Cook amici: "Amici’s practical experience with policymaking in the United States and around the world—including with countries that have threatened or reduced central bank independence—also convinces them that reducing independence can result in higher inflation and higher borrowing costs." 1/3

MAJOR support for #FED Lisa Cook in new amicus filing with SCOTUS: FED: Bernanke, Greenspan, Yellen, Tarullo TSY: Geithner, Lew, Paulson, Rubin, Summers (+ Yellen) CEA: Bernstein, Cochrane, Furman, Hubbard, Mankiw, Rogoff, Romer, Rouse Former Sen. Phil Gramm

Mostly strong data (durables largely Boeing, computer orders fell) undermines the large-and-rapid rate-cut case #Fed Gov Stephen Miran was back on TV making today. The TL;DR argument he seems to be making is IF the Trump fiscal policies work as we designed, the economy will tank...

Ya know, we wouldn't have arguments on TV about who is to blame if there's a government shutdown if members of Congress had actually done their job and passed the necessary legislation to fund the government. They've only had a YEAR to do it.

Now Dallas. It's the guns.

Sadly, the end of a (very long) era: bsky.app/profile/thea...

#Fed's Jay Powell says stocks are "fairly highly valued," Alibaba says "hold our beers" $BABA

Dept of WTF? Now? "I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form." Dept of just WTF: "In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them."

The world sits, stunned into silence.

This is a 9-0 Supreme Court decision from just last year.

When a judge says AYFKM: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Hello, 1999!

*TRUMP'S NYT LAWSUIT DISMISSED FOR NOW FOR BEING TOO LONG It was 85 pages