Tune in to @kqedforum.bsky.social at 9a tmrw to hear me talk rising student loan delinquencies

@jrothst.bsky.social makes excellent points & language is important. I'm estimating "full employment" ~given~ cruel immigration policy. To measure slack, Fed compares actual labor mkt to estimate of current "full emp" (also dicey language as that estimate generally means UR is high for some groups).

This is a good thread. But I want to take exception to the naming of low unemployment and low employment growth as “good.” A thread of my own: 1/7

The California Policy Lab is hiring a Researcher/Senior Researcher, focused on health & safety net in California: capolicylab.org/careers/rese...

More than 330,000 low-income college students in California use #CalFresh to help pay for their groceries. But they may not receive their benefits in November because of the government shutdown. capolicylab.org/news/analysi... #CaLeg

So excited to be working with @jrothst.bsky.social and the amazing program committee to make this year's SoLE annual meeting the best ever-don't forget to submit your paper so you can join us there! www.sole-jole.org/2026-program...

Is there anything more than vibes to the idea that unemployment is up among the young, due to AI? Yes, I am aware that there evidence of impacts in specific occupations like software development. I'm interested in the claim that there's been a change in aggregates. #econsky

@chrishayesg.bsky.social's column is simply correct: What candidates need now is charisma and the ability to get people's attention. Not ideal policies, not tons of rich friends. I think he may underplay the ability of Fox/X/right-wing actors to make gaffes stick to Democrats, but he's still right.

Reminder!

Policy research folks take note - CPL's research is very influential in California state policy and this high-impact role will help expand that influence. Consider applying and share with your networks!

Come join us at the @capolicylab.bsky.social as our new policy director in Sacramento!

Read this, by @jamellebouie.net. These are the stakes. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/o...

New paper alert! The @capolicylab.bsky.social and @thepeoplelab.bsky.social partnered with the CA Dept of Social Services and @codeforamerica.org to help low-income Californians find out about and claim tax credits and pandemic stimulus payments, and to learn what works in outreach.

If you live in the Bay Area, but stand in allegiance with DC’s protest against the national guard policing their city, and all the other violations of law and decency, join us, Saturday, 9/6 Where: Oakland city hall, 12th street BART When: Saturday at 11. #freeDC #indivisible #nokings #50501protest

This action by Lisa Cook is courageous, principled, and deserves broad support.

We are hiring an Executive Director for our Executive Leadership Academy (ELA)! Lead the next chapter of a program that's shaped 623 leaders. Find out more and apply by Sept 22. 🔗 aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF05083 #HigherEdJobs

Society of Labor Economists (SoLE) Annual Conference will be May 1-2, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. Submission portal is now open! Deadline for submissions is October 31--don't forget to submit! It will be a great conference! (organized by me and @jrothst.bsky.social) mailchi.mp/sole-jole/so...

I would like to associate myself with this letter. Key sentence: "It is unconscionable for Israel to treat civilians as liabilities to be contained rather than as human beings entitled to livable conditions." The economics is secondary - but if it gives an excuse to make that point, good.

Just to say this plainly: what you're looking at here is a federal police force accountable only to the president rolling up to intimidate the governor of California as he announces his plan to counter a federal legislative coup out of Texas which will ensure their permanent presence in our streets

I've been hearing that emails to my berkeley.edu address from off campus are bouncing today. It seems to be some configuration issue. For the time being, if you write to me please copy [email protected].

I tried to explain university finances, indirect costs, and the extortionary demands that the Trump admistration is making of many universities.

Looking for a 2 page explanation of CES Benchmark revisions? I wrote one at www.congress.gov/crs-product/...

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased. #econsky

"...escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence & integrity of the federal statistical system. "The president seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. "...firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit & undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics..."

This piece is very moving, and reflects how I am feeling about the Israel/Gaza calamity. Silence in the Face of Gaza's Starvation is Absolute Betrayal of Holocaust Victims By Orit Kamir Originally published in Haaretz substack.com/home/post/p-... Thanks to @deanbaker13.bsky.social for posting it.

I just donated to Sameer Project and World Central Kitchen. Please join me. Links in the below post.

I just sent this out. The Jewish people have moral frameworks for this moment. It is a choice not to heed them. Please let us meet this moment, let us see the shattered Temple around us, right now, and our responsibility to it.

A timely and trenchant piece by Suresh Naidu. When future generations sift through the wreckage of our era, they’ll find it strewn with the institutional and personal failures of leaders both great and small. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...

Friday is the application deadline for our 2025 Dissertation Award, given to the best policy-focused Ph.D. dissertation on employment-related issues. First prize is $2,500 and up to two honorable mention awards of $1,000 may also be given. Details at www.upjohn.org/dissertation...

Finished a Ph.D. dissertation related to employment during July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2025? Does it have policy relevance? Do you like winning money? Awards? If yeses, consider applying. Get more info and check out the list of past winners. #EconSky #Sociology #policysky #polisky #FundSocSci

I have a hypothesis: June 1 was a Sunday this year, so the reference week was earlier in the month than usual. My guess is that some districts/colleges that are usually out for the summer by the reference wk but were still in session this year, and that accounts for the rise in SA education jobs.

Next up: the World Labor Conference in Toronto! The SOLE Mentoring Program (🙏 @jrothst.bsky.social et al) started off yesterday with a great session on replication with @larsvil.bsky.social - and on Saturday I'll be presenting our work on Human Wealth Inequality (w/ @danielwaldenstrom.bsky.social)!

All of these pictures are filling my heart. I believe we can win.

Shout out to the wonderful @matthewakraft.bsky.social and Papay paper that was the one that convinced me on this. doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

Great article in the JEL about Consumer Credit Panel research: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/... An important correction: Projects with the University of California CCP (UC-CCP) require a U. Calif. coauthor, but if that condition is met all coauthors can access the data, not just the affiliated one.

This is monstrous.

This seems unlikely to me. It just isn't that easy to add lots of undergrads - even if you aren't going to offer more classes and just want to cram more students in, you need classroom space, dorms, etc. Maybe some public elites have spare capacity, but I'd be surprised.

We're thrilled to announce three outstanding researchers are joining the Upjohn Institute: Chloe Gibbs @chloergibbs.bsky.social and Monique Davis @monique-e-davis.bsky.social in August and Ethan Jenkins June 2. Welcome! #laboreconomics #econsky

Thrilled to see (belatedly) that @capitalandmain.bsky.social took home 37 (!!) awards at the California Journalism Awards, including the series I edit, Striking Back. cnpa.com/california-j...

This is horrific.

Help us find our next Executive Editor 🎯

7/n but the white house's presentation is bullshit because the reconciliation stuff is a one-time pot. so if you cut your annual but ameliorate with one-time stuff, that can help for now, but when the one-time runs out, you're fucked.

So this chart, and every other chart I've seen, shows a $163b cut in the topline spending, but then the breakdown adds up to a substantial net increase. So where is the cut coming from that doesn't show up in the breakdowns?

This DOGE Impact Tracker looks really useful - more like this please! And support @capitalandmain.bsky.social - they are a great newspaper.

This gets at a pet peeve of mine. I am convinced that schools should have reopened earlier after COVID. But the passive voice imperative is not policy analysis. Schools reopening required teachers to teach. Without a reason why *they* should have done that, it is just wishful thinking.

I’m proud to see UC Berkeley on this list.

🎓NEW Report: Many low-income students lose #CalFresh benefits after high school — even though most remain eligible. Our new study sheds more light on this drop-off and what can be done: capolicylab.org/supporting-y... #CalFresh #SNAP #HigherEd 🧵 1/8

Reminder: please consider applying to our education researcher position!

@upjohninstitute.bsky.social is a great place to work with good people on interesting research. We're looking for a new full-time, permanent RA. Kalamazoo is cool, too. Reasonable cost of living and probably more microbreweries per capita than oh, say, around 92% of cities its size.

The Upjohn Institute is looking for a research analyst to support our research on employment issues. Please share with your networks. #econsky #hiring www.upjohn.org/employment-o...