New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles: siepr.stanford.edu/publications... Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...

Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK.

I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is. econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...

As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender. *This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.

Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!" contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social "Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..." 1/2

Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.

All here: www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-no...

From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool: 1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US. 2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing. 3) Reduce...

Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)

I am. The BLS is staffed w high integrity staff who are 100% committed to accuracy and best practices. But yes—very worried about this.

When they were little, I also used to make breakfast for the kids on jobs day. I’d ask them to predict payrolls and u rate. They did no better or worse than the pros.

Was just half-listening to Powell presser and thought I heard him implicitly disagree w Waller re labor-market assessment. Gov W says it’s weak: Chair P says it’s solid. Key difference prob where you see labor supply. P sees it slowing at similar rate to labor demand (see u rate).

Very interested in what Nick, one of the nation's premier Fed reporters, with deep historical knowledge, has to say about recent Fed...um..."developments."

Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy. econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...

Fed gov Waller makes a three-part argument for cutting rates at July meeting: 1) tariffs 1-time hit to inflation (raises price level, not growth rate) 2) economy's kinda weak: "Real (GDP) growth was likely around 1% in the first half of this year and... www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Thrilled to do this interview with @jaredb-econ.bsky.social for @contrariannews.org about what the history of capitalism can teach us today. Smith, Marx/Engels, Polanyi, Keynes, Kalecki, Sweezy, Friedman--we packed a lot in!

Very excited to reunite with CEAs former chief econ. Definitely be getting into the new CPI report; I got issues with the inflation outlook (based in part on Ernie's graphics from this AM): econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

Trump and the markets this week: Trump: "Trade war forever!" Markets: "He's bluffing." [TACO rally] Trump: "Markets onboard w forever trade war!" New Canada tariff threat spooking markets today, so maybe this loop will break. But just sayin'...

yeah...um...nope

The most binding changes to Medicaid won't occur until at least December of next year, after the midterms. Politics has a short memory, but we don't.  Jared Bernstein and Elena Patel on the long-term impacts of the BBB.

Hard yes to that.

I've always said "if you really understand something, you can explain it to anyone." That came to mind listening to renowned tax economist Elena Patel (former CEA, now TPC) break down the tax policies in the big, bad budget bill on Let's Do Lunch yesterday: contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

The devolution of American fiscal policy in one annotated graph, told through the history of our publicly-held debt/GDP, including the impact of Trump and the R's budget bill.

Thnx to Greg for giving me a chance to hold forth. We can, should, & do go into many weeds on these policies, but the big pic couldn't be clearer: after running on helping the working class, the Trump admin is attacking them, making them worse off and raising the costs they face.

Though I know it's late in the game for me, I want to be @bbkogan.bsky.social when I grow up. PLS listen to him answering budget questions today on Let's Do Lunch (Tues@noon ET) at the Contrarian. He encapsulates the perfect combination of heart and head. contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

No question, these are confusing econ times. But I still think one can pull an intelligible signal from the dataflow, especially re inflation and the labor market. econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

Who wins/who loses from tax changes in the budget is an important question. But a more important question is who wins/loses from the full tax agenda, including tariffs, a highly regressive tax. Here’s the answer from the Budget Lab. Answer: **everyone** except the wealthy.

Yesterday, Hannah Katch and I had this letter to the ed in the WSJ, critiquing an oped by John Cogan arguing that Mcaid must be cut because it has grown. That's it. Zero reference to decades of quality research, much by folks up here... www.wsj.com/opinion/what...

Good folks are generating a lot a smart analyses and numbers re the big, bad budget bill. Here's a collection of some I find particularly compelling, along with a highly relevant observation about the false promise of trickledown from...*1516.* econjared.substack.com/p/there-are-...

Friends don't let friends cite ADP, or at least we should wait for BLS on Friday. PMI services also came in below exp. GS researchers marked down May jobs forecast to 110K, which is just about breakeven as per Atl Fed. www.atlantafed.org/chcs/calcula...

Very good news: Democracy is alive and kickin' against he who would be king: econjared.substack.com/p/waitwhat-w... Less good news: More chaos will ensue. Worrisome news: Some hard data maybe looking a bit soft: econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

I've seen a lot of budgets. This is the worst. econjared.substack.com/p/ive-seen-a...

What does it mean to say a fiscal path is "unsustainable?" Between growth-diminishing tariffs and the big, skewed deficit-financed tax cut, I'm afraid that abstraction is about to get a lot more real. econjared.substack.com/p/what-do-we...

The tariffs are, of course, a drag on growth. The tax package, otoh, increases the deficit, so + fiscal impulse. What's the expected net impact? According to GS, it's negative. The tariff drag > than the fiscal boost. That said, when I look at this AM...

There's no one better than my former colleague and good pal Shalanda Young to give you the straight talk on what's going on with the R's budget and other other fiscal questions you might have.

My take on April CPI. A bit cooler than expected, some disinflation in core services, and nicely-nicely (@marthagimbel.bsky.social) real wage growth. Tariffs?? Just not much to see here yet. I noodle a bit on why not. econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

Trump this AM: "I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy." This is talking point I use to parody him. Seriously, does anyone hear that as anything but ridiculous? It does, however, raise the question of what role do presidents play...

My take on the solid, better-than-expected, April jobs report. Employers are clearly in wait-and-see mode; elevated uncertainty does not equal layoffs. But if the plural of anecdote is data, and if the trade war persists, we'll see it in the job market. econjared.substack.com/p/april-jobs...

My take on this AMs important first look at '25q1 GDP. There's both real strength and concerning weakness in the report. (bonus: ECI too!) econjared.substack.com/p/gdp-falls-...

Healthy economic expansions don't die of old age. They get murdered. (with @weakinstrument.bsky.social) contrarian.substack.com/p/trumps-sel...

Quick write-up of the solid March retail sales report, likely driven by trade-war frontrunners. I don't know about you, but I'm still very much on shpilkes (a very important Yiddish word we all need right now). econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

Important @ericvannostrand.bsky.social oped in the NYT documenting how Trump's tariffs deter investment. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/o...

We answer all those econ questions you’ve been wondering about tomorrow (Tues) at noon at the Contrarian. Who’s we? Me and…wait for it…Heather Long! She brings the optimal combination of knowledge, experience, and common sense.

I guess I should stop saying this, but "damn...what a week!" Wrap-up including trade war, bonds, things you'll want to read/listen to, data notes. econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...

Great post, @mtkonczal.bsky.social. I understand that tariffs--really, trade war--generating a lasting supply shock isn't the base case, but it's a risk & an interesting, scary frame. Adjacent worries here: econjared.substack.com/p/the-fed-mu...

Thanks for elevating! Cutting spending on low-income services (health care, nutrition) to offset costs of high-end tax cuts is unfortunately a well-known R play. But adding a huge, regressive sales tax on imports...now that's a new--and shameful--wrinkle. econjared.substack.com/p/of-tariffs...

The hard data are holding up. March jobs solid and March inflation, cooler-than-expected. Hard to see tariff madness in either. It's early, of course, and I expect bad soft hits good hard soon. But not yet. Also, short take on Trump cave: econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

Yep. Great clarification from Brent N. Though while dividing by 4 helps a little I guess, much better, as he says, to scrap this madness. Unfortunately, I don't expect "our bad" to be forthcoming.