trump rapidly heading for an approval rating among all adults that starts with `36` fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

The “somewhat disapprove” crowd rises again

Trump's job approval rating is hitting all-time lows (-21 on avg) across polling firms this week. Yet Democrats are "only" +6 on the House generic ballot. What explains the difference? I take a deep dive into exclusive raw polling data to find out: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-is-2...

Completely illegal. And at the rate cases have been moving, maybe the courts will do something about it 14 months from now

I'm gonna lose it

Thanks for this! I have found your work invaluable in recent months.

Our latest Strength In Numbers / Verasight.io poll was cited on CNN yesterday alongside three major pollsters. That’s more evidence that independent media can be a real business model for covering public opinion well. More poll results: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/poll

Trump hits new approval low among all adults, rounding to -21 for first time  fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

Yeah, that’s… pretty bad!

Democratic Senate control probability is above 50%. Probably like 53%, but still.

tis the season

Also, treating MAGA like it’s a stable political ideology (akin to liberal, moderate, libertarian, etc) leads to conceptual problems. If someone decides that they don’t approve of Trump, they’re much more likely to decide that they’re not MAGA than to be a Trump disapproving MAGA voter.

My latest Strength In Numbers/ @verasight.io poll found 72% of Americans, including majorities of both parties, oppose sending ground troops to Iran www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-26...

Surveys show only half of Republicans identify as MAGA. Trump’s numbers among the other half are cratering. That’s the electoral threat posed by the political fallout over Iran. It doesn’t matter what “MAGA” does, it matters what non-MAGA Reps do. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-22...

No crowdsourced crowd count from Strength In Numbers this time. Taking the weekend off for a family event. But comparing some city-by-city estimates to Oct quickly, looks like roughly as many or slightly more demonstrators this go around. Trump’s numbers have gotten worse, so that’s expected!

Strength In Numbers podcast episodes are also uploaded to YouTube (and free to watch), for those of you who prefer that platform: youtu.be/pydF_IE8z98

One reason Democrats are lagging Trump’s disapproval (-20) on the generic ballot (D+5) is that there are a lot of voters who say they somewhat disapprove of Trump but are undecided for the midterms. That alone costs Dems about 4 points on the GB www.gelliottmorris.com/p/bonus-why-...

I’m sure the new owners of CNN are thrilled by this www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-22...

Here’s some more data on this (been reporting on the Trump lower-income slippage since last summer): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/workers-tr...

Our new poll finds 1 out of 8 Trump voters regrets how they voted in 2024, and Harris would win a hypothetical redo by almost 3 points www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-27...

new data out tomorrow morning at gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Podcast: Why we trust real polls over prediction markets www.gelliottmorris.com/p/why-we-tru...

X is boiling journalists’ brains

In 10 mins, @gelliottmorris.com and I will go live to discuss two burning topics: whether AI polls (or "polls") and prediction markets offer any value. Let's just say we're pretty skeptical—and there are good reasons why. Tune in here!

Live Strength In Numbers podcast recording today at 2:00 Eastern. David and I will be talking about AI-generated polls and going deep on the predictive value — and values — of prediction markets. Join us live, paying subs can ask Qs! open.substack.com/live-stream/...

James Carville: “6 months ago I didn’t know who [Elliott Morris] was. Now everybody’s asking me to get this guy on the podcast!” podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...

From our new poll: ICE agents are the least trusted law enforcement personnel in the country www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-26...

NEW POLL: - 72% oppose ground troops in Iran — including a majority of Republicans. - 53% of adults oppose ICE at airports - 59% disapprove of Trump rejecting the DHS funding deal Full results from my new Strength In Numbers / @Verasight.io survey: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-26...

earnest skeet time: over the past 6 months strength in numbers has been gaining an average of 150 new readers per day. covering politics/public opinion isn't always fun but i feel truly blessed to be able make this a new career. and big things to come. thank you all for making this possible!!

new poll at 6am tomorrow www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-26...

Maybe a different way of saying the same thing but there’s an inherent reactionary impulse in “sensible centrist” pundits—which is to recoil at anything unfamiliar and new, and to deem it unpopular / unworkable. Some of those ideas later find acceptance despite this but no lessons are learned

Just got data back for a special SIN/Verasight.io survey on the ICE airport deployment, Trump's rejection of the Senate's DHS budget deal, opposition to boots on the ground in Iran, and support for a ceasefire. Results tomorrow morning at www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Tomorrow's live recording for the Strength In Numbers Podcast will cover some exclusive crosstabs from our new monthly poll, plus why you should trust real polls over prediction markets and AI-based predictions. You can submit questions early here! open.substack.com/live-stream/...

trump hits new all time low on average approval for handling prices www.gelliottmorris.com/data/

One of the greatest marketing tricks pulled by centrist opinion writers is to convince people they somehow speak for a silenced, contrarian, rational minority — when in fact what they write is 80-90% exactly what mainstream corporate Dem thought is on any given subject

A lot of what Trump is doing is incredibly unpopular w the average American. The Republican Party is heading for a wipeout in Nov. Yet Trump—and those around him—keep doubling down on the most toxic parts of his presidency to appeal to extremist audiences on social media. The made-for-X presidency.

New poll from @gelliottmorris.com has Trump's approval at 37%, Dems leading the generic House matchup by 49-43, and majorities rejecting the basic premises of Trump's war. Elliott came on our podcast and explained all these numbers. It's an illuminating chat. Enjoy: newrepublic.com/article/2081...

Trump is now flirting with a job approval rating among all adults that starts with the number 37, per our average fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

Figured we had to write down a policy for this: Why @fiftyplusone.news wont be aggregating or reporting on AI-generated “polls” open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...

New @gelliottmorris.com/@verasight.io poll for Strengths in Numbers. 58% of Americans say the war is a bad use of taxpayer dollars. 61% would oppose it if gas prices were to rise by $1 or more per gallon. Additionally, 26% of adults say the war will make Americans safer, vs 51% who say less safe.

The trend in Trump's approval ratings since he was elected has been relentlessly downward - now sub-38%. Trump is not immune from the laws of political gravity. Poll estimates via @gelliottmorris.com @fiftyplusone.news

New poll: Trump’s approval on handling prices, the border hits new low. 51% of adults say the war in Iran makes Americans less safe www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-24...

Seeing some commentary about the perils of turning vote-counting into election-night cable-news drama. So let me just point out that I wrote about this in Nov 2024¹ … and in May 2024² and in Dec 2022³ and in March 2018.⁴ Sort of a hobbyhorse of mine. ¹ www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

It’s not “polling” if part of the sample is generated responses from a large language model. Delete this

Fresh polling data on Trump, the war in Iran, economic sentiment, the midterms and more coming out tomorrow from our latest monthly Strength In Numbers/Verasight.io survey. Get it in your inbox: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Yes bsky.app/profile/gell...

doing more of these now. they seem to do well m.youtube.com/shorts/5a9Ng...

Trump dramatically increasing the visibility of ICE agents, a group with a double digit negative favorability rating, is a real galaxy brain move

58% of voters say the war in Iran is a bad use of taxpayer dollars — new Strength In Numbers/@verasight.io poll. (@gelliottmorris.com) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/opinion-we...