On average across multiple polls, only 25% of Americans support military action in Venezuela substack.com/@gelliottmor...

In our recent October poll, 2% of Americans said their primary source of news was CBS. They disapprove of Trump by a net 20 points. I doubt a campaign against elites and academia — left-coded groups, in the Trumpian formulation — is going to help ratings www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-your-...

Wanted to show something cool w/ our polling averages. There's been a slowdown in new data to add bc of the holidays. This increases uncertainty about what the polling avg is 2day (shaded green area). Our avg is the only one with real uncertainty intervals! fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

Fox News viewers love Trump. People who watch MSNBC hate him. And people who get their news primarily from podcasts lean left, esp on the economy. Here's what your news diet says about your politics: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-your-...

I have put together a model of polling data that analyzes issue salience & party trust for 10 political issues & simulates hypothetical elec outcomes by adjusting attention to certain issues and/or giving Dems/Reps more of an advantage on each issue. Can't wait to share. Has any1 here done this b4?

Trump said on "Truth Social" the other day that his "real" approval rating is 64%. He is a liar. It is 40% (56% disapprove). It is important to call out authoritarians when they try to manufacture consent for their unpopular agendas. Remind people how unpopular he is. substack.com/@gelliottmor...

this article will publish tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-your-...

it’s from the kirkland region of france

An official account of the United States government is dreamposting about deporting 80+ million citizens

A little unclear on the proposed positioning of the structure. Is it supposed to arch over the 6 lanes of traffic on Memorial Bridge? Or just go off to the side — directly obscuring the LINCOLN MEMORIAL?

fun fact the nvidia rtx 5090 was actually named for how much it's going to cost next year

I have been feeling a lot of gratitude lately. A humble thanks to everyone who reads and supports Strength In Numbers. You helped turn what started out as tbh a very shitty year into one of the best professional years of my life. Looking forward to everything we can accomplish together in 2026!

rstudio used to have this issue where if you resized the window while a model was running, it would crash the whole program (and your underlying model), sometimes costing your hours of work. i'm glad they fixed that!

season seven of mad men... did they write this plot with chat gpt?

love it when the model works!

❤️

I started Strength In Numbers in March with a goal to hit 25,000 readers by 2026. The site is now just 1,100 people short of fully *doubling* that goal! If you've found my independent, data-driven work valuable, I'd love it if you shared this post with a friend. ❤️ www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

I'm interviewed in this piece www.vox.com/politics/473...

putting that on my tombstone

A bonus post for Strength In Numbers subscribers! Using 10k interviews conducted with voters since May 2025, I've calculated issue approval for Trump's key policies in all 50 states (+DC). Here's how each state thinks Trump is handling prices (it's bleak) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-voter...

a bonus Monday post for subs tomorrow:

Premium subscribers to Strength In Numbers now have access to a dashboard for our monthly survey with Verasight that contains graphics for key trends and full downloadable files. Merry Christmas! gelliottmorris.com/poll/

if not a bubble, definitely bubble-shaped www.nytimes.com/2025/12/26/b...

Trump's job approval in our average at FiftyPlusOne.news is 40% approve, 56.3% disapprove, for a net of -16.3 today. On this day in his first term, Trump was at -17.8. Different, but not really. Current avg: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv... Historical data: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data

good polling

Most Americans don’t have faith that their political leaders care what they have to say. So, we asked them what messages they'd have for Trump and Democratic leaders if they did have the chance to speak their mind. New polling here: www.cnn.com/2025/12/24/p...

no — i do not think the ellisons hired bari weiss to 'dismantle public trust in cbs news.' they hired her to go soft on trump so they can have an easier time getting mergers through. destroying public trust in the org is a byproduct

the GOP has waged a decades-long campaign against the press that has left it weak and frankly paranoid bari weiss and many in her position at other orgs believe the solution to this is to go soft on Trump to win GOP audiences back this will be their downfall www.gelliottmorris.com/i/174183474/...

An early Merry Xmas to everyone who has subscribed to my Substack & made it possible for me to do data-driven work as the news industry implodes. 2026 is going to be a lot of work, but important, and maybe sometimes fun. New readers can get 20% off thru 12/31! www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe?co...

looks like trump's approval rating is heading back down fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

trump at -43 with independents would be catastrophic for republicans in 2028.

but inflation was so low in 2019!!

not just cbs and cnn

seems notable

when they say "take the country back," they're not talking about winning elections

why would someone give their 10 year old access to AI tools, esp with photo/camera capabilities?

10 new charts that show how Americans feel about prices and health care: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/10-charts-...

A November YouGov poll had ICE favorability underwater by 14 points among all Americans and 37(!) points among political independents today.yougov.com/politics/art...

tomorrow's data roundup is scheduled at the blog: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/10-charts-...

also, these "WAR" values (a) are derived from a statistical model that produces ideologically convenient results that no other open-source model replicates, (b) lack controls for important factors like fundraising and candidate experience, and (c) completely ignore uncertainty in the data. not good!

the index of consumer sentiment (current expectations) is at an all time low because trump voters are catching on to the facts the rest of us have been covering for a year

one of the phrases here is 'pissed as a fart'

Can I just say 2 things: First, Matt fails to see how these two sentences are different: "Trump is weak on the economy and highlighting it is bad for him" "Trump is weak on the economy, so Democrats shouldn't talk about immigration" I think this says a lot about his ideological priors

Of course the UMich index of current conditions had to hit a new low 30 minutes after I published this article. Would have been a good peg! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...

"nominal prices remain elevated and people are worried about impacts from leadership" seems like a pretty good explanation of consumer sentiment, IMO

if I was trying to improve consumer sentiment I would simply announce good economic policies instead of bad ones

great read

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote... From @gelliottmorris.com in his excellent weekly in Numbers email.

Trump's White House speech on affordability shows his team is desperate to try anything to help his numbers (except, of course, change the policies that majorities of Americans disapprove of) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-vote...