Polls shows Americans approve of the deal to re-open the government by a wide margin open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

One thing I learned writing this piece: ~1 in 8 Americans are on SNAP. Way more than I thought (and I grew up lower middle class and we had WIC when I was a kid, so think I had an above-replacement-level prior). “We saved SNAP” is good angle for Dems open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

One way the shutdown deal might actually help Democrats: it gives them ammo to claim they saved SNAP/other benefits, following up recent electoral wins on affordability and prices that in tandem could help repair the party's image with working-class voters www.gelliottmorris.com/p/one-way-th...

democrats love all their moderate, progressive, and top-of-the-distribution leaders <3 they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3

why polls matter!

Today is one of those days when I should have taken my own advice. Flooded with rage tweets on the other platform. Garbage way to communicate that only brings out the worst in people. All dunks, no conversation. Complete waste of time trying to engage there www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...

this article will publish tomorrow at 7:30 am One way the shutdown deal might actually help Dems Dems have an opportunity to claim they saved SNAP and other government programs, which could help repair the party's image as one that fights for working people www.gelliottmorris.com/p/one-way-th...

neat

good job and good people

one of the things that people who spend way too much time arguing on twitter have gotten really good at is completely misreading an argument and attributing a completely different stance to people via quote tweet, instead of replying like someone who was interested in a conversation would do

1/2 One of the big problems for the always-punching-left Democratic consultants is that they are waging ideological battles in public that actually _reinforce_ the left-wing image of the party that they are trying to fight. That is a risk they have decided substack.com/@lakshyajain...

im gonna have a stroke (single-member RCV, or "IRV," does not reduce ideological polarization)

@gelliottmorris.com's wise words on Dem strategists: 'They can’t say “Kamala Harris lost because of inflation, there’s nothing we could have done about that,” or else people won’t give the money, right?' After the Dem Sweep: Talking with G. Elliott Morris paulkrugman.substack.com/p/after-the-...

Centrist Democratic strategists have probably done more to prime voters to think of the Party as a vehicle for wokeism than anyone other than Trump or Fox News. And on very thin data that's not causal or predictive out of sample. The extent of the self-own is remarkable substack.com/@gelliottmor...

11,000 members of Congress, here we come

single member districts are bad

If you're getting bent out of shape about a Pres. Primary horserace poll 3 years out, please turn off your computer and throw it out the window.

nate’s not mad, don’t put in the newspaper that he’s mad x.com/jbarro/statu...

Sure but those are foreigners, look how well it worked for Sinema.

One thing I haven’t seen the “Democrats need to move to the right” camp of the Democratic elite reckon with is the complete and utter failure of Keir Starmer’s drastic move to the right on immigration. He has failed to halt Nigel Farage’s rise in polls substack.com/@gelliottmor...

it's a tail outcome surely, but what's the probability the GOP throws trump under the bus completely based on these files? substantially non-zero, and higher than a weak ago

g

that's right -- and subscribers to Strength In Numbers knew this was coming months ago... www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-lot-of-p...

I didn't put this in my article, but another thing I recommend is turning off iMessage on your computer. That's what your phone is for!

this is technically wrong, as the UMich ICS is a few decimal points higher than its historic low of 50.0 set in June 2022. but that is still a pretty severe indictment of trump's presidency! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...

trump's approval among adults falls below 40% for the first time in his second term: fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv... his net rating is -16.4, statistically indistinguishable from his -17.2 rating at this point in his first term: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data

@fiftyplusone.news !

Adelita Grijalva is finally getting sworn into the House today. Her 50-day stint as a congressperson-elect is by far the longest this century.

this is an interesting survey experiment www.the-downballot.com/p/new-poll-s...

Yes, these are legitimate **candidate quality issues** for Dems. But they are not about ideology! If your evidence is “they’re bad candidates,” that’s not an ideology critique — and actually the very thing I have been saying people should pay attention to more than ideology!

you should quit social media if you can. if you can't, you should use apps that give you and old-school reverse chronological feed of posts from people you follow. yes, like bluesky. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...

this post will publish tomorrow at 7:30 am www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...

well who needs health insurance if you've got 3 pints?

When it comes to how voters feel about the economy, Trump's numbers are now as bad as or worse than Joe Biden's across the board www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...

reading is good. we should celebrate people reading in public instead of being on their phones

closing in on a week among the top ten rising substack publications. thanks to all the newcomers for joining and everyone else for their persistent support!

Eight Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...

Donald Trump is Joe Biden now POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November, www.gelliottmorris.com/p/donald-tru...

AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey. Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p...

Not going to sugar coat it, I think it's a pretty idiotic thing to do to compare Zohran Mamdani's margin in NYC , in 3-person race off the usual left-right spectrum, to Kamala Harris's margin in 2024. So stupid as to make you question the intentions of the author www.thirdway.org/memo/ten-rea...

Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues www.ipsos.com/en-us/lesson...

Can Democrats learn something from Zohran Mamdani’s mobilizing of and strength with first-time voters? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...

the problem with using things like Wins Above Replacement to guide party strategy is that electoral skill can change quickly in response to new events and dramatically out of step policy choices. jared golden support trump's tariffs in a seat where they're probably -10 or -20. that's gonna cost you

scheduled the weekly roundup for tomorrow morning! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...

"overwhelming defeat" is when you lose by a point and a half (historically narrow) www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...

Paul Krugman and I sit down to talk about the 2025 elections. What do Democrats' big wins forecast for 2026? Why are elites from Democratic consultants to The New York Times Editorial Board concluding the wrong lessons from 2024? Why were polls off? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...

Here's a clip from my interview with Paul Krugman on what just happened in the 2025 elections, plus many of the other things I've been writing about US politics recently. Online tomorrow morning www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-wi...

tough numbers for the golden child of the pro-moderation crowd

latino voters swinging 60 points against trump is really something