I thought this analysis was very well executed (and judging by the like count so did a lot of people!)

this article (and the data behind it) will publish tomorrow at 7:00 am www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-borr...

Tomorrow @ Strength In Numbers: Trump approval split out by demographics *only among 2024 Trump voters*. Very revealing, speaking to fracturing among his base and the theory that he borrowed votes for 2024, did not permanently realign the electorate. Get subscribed! www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Sharing this from a survey I did last month comparing how residents of the Twin Cities, Minnesota and country as a whole feel about immigration and deportations, the 2026 election, and Trump's focus on the issues morrispredictive.com/assets/surve...

Notable favorability rating numbers for Senate candidates in Texas, per new PPP poll: - James Talarico: +6 net (41% favorable) - John Cornyn: –28 net (53% unfavorable) - Ken Paxton: –24 net (54% unfavorable) senatemajority.com/wp-content/u...

america has entered "woke" 2.0 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/64-of-amer...

64% of Americans want to stop changing the clocks www.gelliottmorris.com/p/64-of-amer...

Strength In Numbers coverage in Axios this morning: www.axios.com/2026/03/07/t...

6th this week! Including Crenshaw losing, plus Zinke, Owens, Gonzeles, Issa, and Daines over in the other chamber.

After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence, @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

Trying something new w the podcast next wk & inviting someone on to do a special interview episode rather than the usual framing. We are calling it a “deep dive” episode. What broader, not-so-newsy questions do y’all have about politics or polls right now that I could help answer with a good guest?

If you commit the Strategist's Fallacy then you think that Labour moving right on immigration shores up Tory and Reform defectors But if center/right parties won't vote for you because conditions are poor, all you've done is force your base to flee to the left www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...

By moving right on immigration & other key issues, and generally coming off as incompetent (esp on cost of living), UK Labour is losing vote share to left-wing parties AND to right-leaning ones. This is what happens when a party appeases its opponents & loses its core identity.

Record high support for abolishing ICE in latest YouGov/Economist data

What divides MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans when it comes to foreign policy and Iran? For 50+1's weekly polling roundup, The Trendline, we took a look at the numbers: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/what-divid...

The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February. According to our polling, 24% of Americans say Trump has made the economy better since becoming president, vs 53% who say he's made things worse. Voters say 2:1 Trump isn't focused enough on the things they care about. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/53-of-amer...

liberated... from economic growth

There's been about a 10-point increase in support for attacking Iran since Feb 23, according to YouGov. That's driven entirely by Republicans rallying around Trump

trump is doing everything in his power to make the midterms as bad as possible for the gop

Trafalgar group winning awards for writing the most leading question possible.

All the polls on the U.S. war in Iran so far www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-us-i... If you ignore people who say they “don’t know” how they feel about the war, disapproval of Trump’s actions is already at 56%. That is higher than the resistance to Vietnam in 1971.

department of "limited overseas military operation"

First poll I've seen on support for impeaching Trump over his handling of the Epstein files www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/2/...

noem? more like noe more

Taking questions for the interactive segment of our live podcast taping happening at 2PM Eastern! We love audience questions. Put them in this thread: open.substack.com/chat/posts/b...

Since everyone is talking about new voters, I pulled up the Virginia voter file to check how many 2025 general election voters were non-2024 voters. Per L2, that number is 200k, or about 6% of all ballots cast in the race. These 200k were modeled at 60% Dem and 20% Rep

technically there is no "evidence" that you are conscious either

is daines worried about being the last statewide elected official who hasn’t committed a public assault on someone?

I don't have a problem with Tim. But I do think it is deleterious that so many smart people spend so much time on X, which has essentially become an algorithmically and AI-optimized far-right MAGA message testing and propaganda machine. People assume X posts represent the masses, but they don't!

So one Republican senator from Montana tonight suddenly announced he would not run for re-election this year, and the other Republican senator from Montana broke a guy's hand?

Talarico is running an anti-system campaign that could be very appealing to indies & Trump voters (who you need to win in a Trump +14 state). By highlighting positions that are not correlated with left-right ideology, he can attract right-leaning voters. Smart www.gelliottmorris.com/p/meet-ameri...

59% of Americans Oppose the Military Action in Iran www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...

the conventional wisdom a year ago was that trump was untouchable on immigration and indomitable with independents and democrats shouldn't even talk about the issue

One of the JD Vance lines that worked best with young men in 2024 was that America shouldn't be funding foreign wars when people at home are suffering. I imagine this price tag isn't going to sit well with them

We are getting a lot of polls on the US war in Iran now that pollsters have had time to be in the field. There is a general consensus across surveys, but some notable disagreement to unpack. We will do that tomorrow in the live Strength In Numbers podcast: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

New @nbcnews.com poll On what Americans think about Trump’s handling of Iran: • 41% approve • 54% disapprove • 3% no opinion • 2% not sure Should the U.S. have taken military action against Iran? • 41% say yes • 52% say no • 7% not sure www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...

Texas reaction post www.gelliottmorris.com/p/six-data-d...

Quite literally “we have always been at war with Iran.”

i do not think we have enough publicly accessible data to answer this question. maybe a private campaign was doing some sort of active listening project and can say, but certainly for the public data folks the answer has to be "idk"

Subscribe to Strength In Numbers and join 60,000 people who get a data-driven analysis of the news sent straight to their inboxes* ** *or optionally no email, just the app **and have an equally positive reaction to this one toward everything I write, I’m sure www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Doing another live stream podcast thingy at 2:00 today to talk about polls in Iran. substack.com/@gelliottmor...

Not totally unprecedented but very rare

rick perry oops gif

lack of humility/acknowledgement of the error term in political handicapping is a big problem (we have all been guilty of this, but some of us are more honest about uncertainty than others)

Six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/six-data-d...

Six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026: Democratic candidate James Talarico might be the best chance in recent history to flip a U.S. Senate seat Republicans have held for 65 years (‪@gelliottmorris.com‬) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/six-data-d...

Talarico does not need a +6 ”WAR” score - Texas was Trump+12 in 2024 - Maybe Trump+10 with the Latino reversion we are seeing - That’s R+8 on lean - It’s a D+7 to D+8 year - That puts it at R+0 to 1 - Talarico has potential positive residual -Paxton had documented negative residual

I've been a long-term pessimist about Dems in Texas until this year, and I basically agree with everything @gelliottmorris.com says here. Talarico isn't the favorite...but he doesn't need everything to go right to win, just more things than go wrong.

Texas reaction post www.gelliottmorris.com/p/six-data-d...