Still around 100 community reports of ICE activity around the Twin Cities today, the most of any state by far. In case you’re wondering why so many of us aren’t quite taking Homan’s presser today at face value.

The volume & geographic distribution of protest nationwide during year 1 of Trump's second term was extraordinary.

In case you didn't know, The Downballot has a rockin' Discord server that's a true haven for election nerds. If you're a paid subscriber, just click below! And if you're not a paid subscriber, it's tme to become one!

A pre-midterm vote for a MAGA troglodyte is politically dicey for the likes of Susan Collins, but a lame-duck vote also poses risks. What happens w/folks like Tillis, who basically got shoved out by Trump? Or Cassidy, who could lose to a Trump endorsee? And who knows what McConnell's status will be

This episode has been a nightmare for my city and state, but I hope people realize it’s also a profound defeat and political catastrophe for Trump and DHS, who are slinking away having accomplished nothing. Minneapolis simply wouldn’t bend to them and they lost

There's a chance that Maine's next governor could be elected with well short of a majority of the vote, especially with two sitting legislators running as independents. But things could change if Democrats succeed in their drive to have ranked-choice voting cover general elections for state offices.

stop :) voting :) for :) Trump :) judges :)

It's a wonderful tool for getting people to start thinking systematically about *how* people like Epstein got into power, and what role [having billions of dollars at your disposal] played in getting him access and protection.

ICE wanting to put a new concentration camp on the grounds of a former Jewish boarding school is a little too on the nose www.theassemblync.com/news/politic...

Glad to see "the Epstein class" get cemented into the vernacular so quickly

As a very normie Dem like Crow shows, you don’t have to be a raging lefty to speak the language that Democratic primary voters want to hear. As many have said, ideology is hardly even the dividing line anymore. Just show that you hate Trump and will deliver consequences when you win back power.

Poll questions sometimes elicit "social desirability bias," where respondents may be more inclined to answer a certain way if they think they're "supposed" to answer a certain way. There may be some of that here, but if so, it's *amazing* that it's pushing toward, "Yes, I'm doing anti-ICE activism"

Amazing numbers for activism in Minnesota Q: "Since December, have you participated in any neighborhood group discussions, either in-person, by phone, or online, in response to federal law enforcement activity in your area?" Minneapolis/St Paul, 49% said yes www.startribune.com/poll-results...

Progressive activist Analilia Mejia won #NJ11 Democratic primary despite getting massively outspent. According to AdImpact, her total ad support amounted to $215,000, while the best-funded candidate benefited from $2.6 million in spending—and came in third.

“Cut ICE’s budget to restore federal health care funding” is an extremely popular message www.politico.com/f/?id=000001...

In the face of fascism, “Fuck you. Make me.” continues to be the right move.

This was Mike Johnson's third failed rule vote of the 119th Congress, bringing him closer to tying the modern era record for rule failure in the House. Which is currently held by... Mike Johnson, from the 118th Congress

Helluva statement from Colorado Rep Crow (D) on the Trump administration's failure to indict him and others

A Winter Olympics story I'd love to read: athletes from Minnesota getting to know athletes from Ukraine. Obviously extremely different situations in so many respects, and yet...

Excellent mini-thread from a member of The Downballot community -->

Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones is trying to reassert himself as the GOP frontrunner for governor a week after a wealthy outsider suddenly emerged to threaten him.

serious q: doesn't DOJ allowing congress to see additional and (ostensibly) unredacted files still run afoul of the transparency act? the obligations aren't met by "congress can look at documents on a few computers." This seems like an admission additional files exist but will never be provided?

don't carry maga's water for them. don't try to work out how there's some secret loophole in the constitution that magically ends democracy. there isn't. that's the whole fucking point you fucking dopes

I thought about why I’ve been pushing back on stolen midterm fears. What’s the harm of worry, even if it doesn’t materialize? It’s this. The regime has less capacity than it’d like, and tries to make up the difference with bluster. If people act as if it’s true, that grants the regime more power.

This story about Bobby Pulido reminds me of one about Bill Clinton from his legendary 1992 campaign in New Hampshire. Pulido: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u... Clinton: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

A "head-turning social media presence" is fantastic newspaper-speak for, "boy is that guy's timeline seriously weird" www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/n...

Since not *everyone* is obsessively checking election results on a Saturday night, you might've missed that Democrats racked up a massive win in rural Louisiana, defending a Trump+13 seat by a 24-point margin in a special election. Catch up with our complete writeup!

losing track of which new group advocating for centrism within the Democratic Party I'm supposed to be paying attention to as a game-changer

Virginia candidates are already maneuvering in anticipation that the Democrats’ new congressional map will be used in this year’s elections. In our newest Morning Digest, we tell you exactly who is likely to run where—and why.

"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!" Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?

The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas. Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points. Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->

There’s another Saturday special election! This time, Republicans have a shot at notching their first flip since the start of Trump’s second term. But Dems are not giving up without a fight. See our full preview here —>

"Two things are happening at same time: Johnson going whole hog on election conspiracies & Rs trying to distance themselves from Trump's racism. It's a vivid illustration of the problem the GOP has had since Trump showed up on the scene." New ep w/ @davidnir.com: www.publicnotice.co/p/the-gop-ha...

VA Gov. Spanberger (moderate, was in CIA) and NYC Mayor Mamdani (left, is in DSA) both taking steps to block local law enforcement from helping ICE as it violently violates people's rights is a good example of how the relevant divide in the Dem coalition isn't center-left, it's fight-don't fight.

They’re trying to run the Kilmar Abrego Garcia playbook with a five year old boy in a bunny hat because nobody can find peace if they embarrass the Trump administration publicly. Normal people didn’t like it with Garcia and they really aren’t going to like it for Liam.

There has to be something un-fun about running in a random Republican primary and then, without warning, having your chances instantly evaporate because Trump decided to endorse one of your rivals (whom you're sure is *less* MAGA than you are). I mean, my sympathy is nil, but this is all so weird.

Going live at 2pm eastern with @davidnir.com to discuss the GOP learning to love Trump's election fraud delusions and the broader reasons they're starting to panic as the midterms approach. Tune in: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

The replies to this are just perfect. I really can't pick a favorite.

Republicans on Saturday are trying to flip a Democratic-held legislative seat for the first time since they regained the White House. But while Trump carried this rural Louisiana state House seat by 13 points, Democrats aren't giving it up without a fight.

Can someone please explain to me the psychology of people who request *edit access* to publicly available Google sheets that they could *download themselves*? Like, do you seriously think I'm going to allow a stranger to muck up our pres-by-CD table? And for what?

I'd rather be last than be wrong

this is truly some mad king shit. god fucking damn it I am so sick of this

In which @davidnir.com tells everyone "don't be a 'margin bro'" when it comes to looking at polling toplines (I will be stealing this): www.gelliottmorris.com/p/yes-democr...

New coinage from The Downballot Discord: "margin bro." Definition: A polling analyst who only looks at the margin between the top two choices and ignores undecideds. Mildly pejorative. Usage: "The Dem is at -5 favorability!" "He's at 20% fave, 25% unfave, 55% don't know. Don't be a margin bro."

I was thinking about this scene from The Usual Suspects. For some doomers, giving up hope offers a certain kind of freedom or release. You're no longer obligated to fight (in this view) because there's nothing to fight for. It's tragic and corrosive, of course, but I believe it's a real phenomenon.

One of the things I try to instill in my students is that "constitutional" and "unconstitutional" are not legal terms of art. It's OUR Constitution. We're empowered to have views on it, and to view government action or inaction as consistent with our country's norms, values, and traditions—or not.

It's a weird situation to be in, but we need to distinguish between "what the law is" vs. "what SCOTUS says the law is." It may not feel like it, but these are two different things! SCOTUS is now a purely political body—like a House of Lords, or as @jamellebouie.net put it, a Guardian Council. 1/3

Sen. John Cornyn is stuck in an undesirable place less than a month before the Texas GOP primary: His allies are spending a ton but his polls are still bad, and donors reportedly are starting to consider cutting him loose entirely and redirecting their money to other races.

This is the way. "The initiative will send observers, who will wear purple safety vests, to areas of reported immigration enforcement activity to collect information 'that may inform future legal action,' according to Attorney General Letitia James." apnews.com/article/ice-...