The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas. Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points. Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->

BREAKING: Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet just won a *massive* landslide to flip a deep-red Senate district. He's up by 14 points in a Trump+17 seat—an overperformance of more than 30 points. How did he do it? Here's our full writeup:

What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly. New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.

LOL. Despite this being a Harris+71 seat, Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai won tonight by a *91-point* margin. Easily one of the wildest overperformances we’ve ever seen, given the district’s deep, deep blue lean.

one takeaway from the grok noncon porn thing is that much of the media just isn't interested in an issue they can't pretend has two sides or that doesn't give them an opportunity to shit on the left. Also it would be uncomfortable to justify remaining on twitter after acknowledging it

It appears that vote-counting may be done in KY. If so, it's an astounding *42-point* overperformance for Democrat Gary Clemons, a union leader and Army vet. This district moved to the right last year, from Biden+10 to Harris+5, but the GOP never seriously contested it. Big Board updated -->

BREAKING: Indiana Republicans FAILED to pass a new 9-0 congressional gerrymander after enough GOP senators sided with Dems. The GOP's 7-2 map stays in place. Trump is trying to re-gerrymander maps nationwide. At least 11 Indiana Rs got death threats after he called for primaries—but it still failed

BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset. It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero. Read our complete writeup here -->

Some (more) very big Dem overperformances on the Big Board tonight so far: FL-SD-11: Republicans hold deep-red district, but Dems overperform by 22 pts FL-HD-90: Dems hold blue-leaning district, outperforming 2024 by 17 and, perhaps more importantly, beating 2020 by 6

It's good—very good, and very important—that district courts keep issuing these 100-page rulings upholding the law. It must be incredibly dispiriting to see them overturned in a two-page, lawless, unsigned order, but please, keep them coming. They expose SCOTUS' corruption like nothing else.

Guy who only remembers #OH02, watching a special election in 2025: "Getting some #OH02 vibes from this..."

Fascinating poll from @the-downballot.com! And I've gotta say, The Downballot has a best-in-class #Substack. Definitely worth a subscription, or at least a #BlueSky follow! They cover all elections, from Chuck Schumer primary challenges to Katie Wilson for Seattle mayor. They'll keep you informed!

After racking up decisive wins across the country last week, how can Democrats keep up the momentum at the ballot box next year, when Congress will be on the line? An exclusive poll for The Downballot offers an answer.

What I want from each and every one of you is a hard target search of every state house, senate, school board, county legislature, coroner's office, residence, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in the United States including all of its territories. Your fugitive's name is Donald J. Trump.

They're cooked.

In Manchester, Democrats texted voters with a picture of Trump, a headline reporting his intent not to fund SNAP, and a simple all-caps message: “VOTE RIGHT NOW!”

GM, Nate Cohn at his best sports pundit last night, already making up reasons why this one doesn't count

Rs want it both ways. They want to mock Democrats and excuse whatever Trump says about them. Senators laugh if you ask about Trump's AI posts - he's just trolling, lol! They also want any crazy or offensive thing *Dems* say to be a horrifying violence-inspiring threat. Can't have both. (2/2)

City of Sickos

We obsessively track overlooked elections all year so that we can bring you special reports like this one—our guide to the top races of 2025. We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more! Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->

It's the most delicious time of the year: The Downballot's annual election prediction contest—aka the babka contest—is back! Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka! Good luck, one and all!

Good news guys turns out we actually won in 2024

The big problem with trying to blame Dems for a shutdown is nobody believes Dems can do shit right now. That's, I guess, the silver lining to Schumer and Jeffries being so passive.

Accept no imitators! This is the one and only special elections Big Board from The Downballot! There are still a few votes left in #VA11 but the vast majority have been tallied. Dem James Walkinshaw is winning by 50 in a Harris+34 district, so a 16-point overperformance—right at the average.

HUGE FLIP: Democrat Catelin Drey wins deep-red state Senate seat in Iowa, breaking the GOP's supermajority. Drey won by 11 points in a district Donald Trump carried by 11 points last year. It's another massive overperformance. The Iowa GOP should be very worried for the midterms. Our full writeup:

Can I do some of these now? --> 🌊🌊🌊

Somehow, we're already celebrating The Downballot's first anniversary today! It's been *quite* the year, and our fiercely loyal readers have made it all possible. We're also marking the occasion with a special 25% off sale! If you haven't upgraded yet, check out all the perks you'll unlock →→

If this draft does reflect what CA Democrats are considering, one key change they'll want to consider before settling on a final version would be to make David Valadao's #CA22 bluer by adding the Salinas Valley. This would not jeopardize Zoe Lofgren's #CA18, which would remain solidly blue.

Tonight, our neighbors to the north will elect a new Parliament after a race dominated by Canada's relations with the U.S. It's our pleasure to present this overview by James Lambert (@hellofasandwich.bsky.social), a lifelong Edmontonian and keen observer of politics in both countries.

It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts! Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd And much more in this 🧵 below!

Some very exciting news: We're releasing our detailed calculations of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 House districts next week! We know a lot of folks have been waiting for this, so if you're hungry for a sneak preview, become a paid subscriber of The Downballot for early access!

CANADIAN REPORTER: Trump's tone on Canada has shifted. He stopped talking about Canada becoming the 51st state. LEAVITT: I would reject that the president's position on Canada has shifted. Perhaps he just hasn't been asked about it. He believes Canadians would benefit from becoming the 51st state.

Yeah, and Democrats will win the other 375.

Want to catch up on all—yes, *all*—the #HandsOff protests this weekend? @donnermaps.bsky.social has collected Bluesky posts of photos from more than 1,100 cities great and small on this interactive map -->

Interactive map of bluesky links to #handsoff protests today - at about 350 so far, mostly via @aramsinn.bsky.social and @maddow.msnbc.com

If in 2025 you’re still doing sneering ‘heh, look at these cringe wine mom protestors’ type shtick I can’t think of any reason anyone should listen to you

Gonna be like buying black-market levi's in Soviet Russia

Like prescribing arsenic for a scraped knee!

every Republican TV hit today

A reminder to reporters: Because Trump tariff numbers are made-up nonsense, using the phrase “reciprocal tariffs” is lying to your audience. The phrase itself is propaganda. They are not reciprocal.

Remarkably, Democrats gained House seats in each of *four* straight elections: 1930: +52 1932: +97 1934: +9 <-- FDR's first midterm! 1936: +12

Me after last night, instructing @the-downballot.com readers to identify hyper-local offices that Democrats can flip this year: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRuY...

DuPage Dems Chair here… we’re leading in 48 of 49 partisan races and only down in the one by 35 votes. Several of our townships have never had an elected Dem, and it’s sweep after sweep tonight.

Wisconsin Democrats have regained the county executive office in light red Winnebago County. Trump won it 52-47 last year. x.com/jrrosswrites...

The chair of the Wisconsin GOP should have spent more than one second worrying about what Democrats say about Elon Musk.