Florida's #SD03 was a Democratic bastion on the panhandle for decades before former NFL defensive tackle Corey Simon flipped it to the Republicans in 2022. He was able to win re-election last year by 11 points, outrunning Trump's four point win here.

So far today, I've seen three different "WAR" models each showing different outcomes on whether Sean Casten is an overperformer or underperformer. Precisely the reason why you can't really do WAR in politics, especially when you're hiding the formula to do it because it makes you money Split Ticket

Me normally: 😐 Me when Caleb Williams: 😀

This is why I'm really starting to hate the data bros. Matty Y: "Dems should focus less on climate change/renewable energy, it's a losing issue." Sean Casten (an actual Congressman): "I won a purple district multiple times by focusing on those issues" Lakshya: "YEAH BUT YOU DIDN'T OVERPERFORM"

Earlier this year, the most prominent elected Illinois Republican lost re-election. Richard Irvin, the Mayor of Aurora, lost his bid for re-election in Illinois's 2nd biggest city. He lost to City Councilman John Laesch, who won by seven points.

I do find it very funny that every time you see someone on the other site dunking on lefties and proclaiming their brand of politics to be the thing to lead the Democrats out of the wilderness, they're almost always connected to some sort of think tank. Unlike me, my bad opinions are unbiased!

Democratic state legislative recruiting continuing to go extremely well this year. A little over a week after getting a candidate in every Texas legislative district, they get a candidate in all but 2 North Carolina state legislative districts.

The Washington Republicans dumped a lot of money into trying to flip #SD26 last month, but they ended up losing this Harris+9 district by five points. State Representative Michelle Caldier (a proven overperformer) was unable to unseat appointed incumbent Deb Krishnadasan.

Look at my Election Twitter dawg, we ain't ever going back to people not saying dumb stuff

As the North Carolina Democrats look to break the Republican supermajority in the State Senate next year, #SD11 might be the deciding seat. This Trump+4 seat saw Republican Senator Lisa Stone Barnes win by three points in 2024 and she faces a strong opponent next year.

Indiana #SD01 Senator Dan Dernulc was one of 21 Republicans vote against redistricting last week, potentially earning him a primary challenge. That's welcome news to the Democrats, as he only won by 5 points in 2022. A Dernulc primary loss could open the door to a Dem flip.

Should be most of the vote in now for Kentucky's #SD35 (Harris+5) special election: Gary Clemons (D)- 72.6% Calvin Leach (R)- 25.1% Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 2.3% It's an over 40 point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats!

Early in-person results just dropped in the Kentucky #SD37 (Harris+5) special election: Gary Clemons (D)- 77.2% Calvin Leach (R)- 20.9% Wendy Higdon (Libertarian)- 1.9% E-day vote will drop this margin down a lot, but Dems well on their way to winning here

We have a special election tonight in Kentucky's #SD37, a Harris+5 seat covering southern Louisville. It also backed Beshear by over 30 points in 2023. Given that the Republican nominee tonight has a lot of baggage, the result will probably be closer to the Beshear margin.

Despite backing Trump by 15 points last year, the Texas Democrats still control #HD74, which stretches along the border from El Paso to Del Rio. Moderate Democrat Eddie Morales won re-election by 3 points at the time Trump won here, can he do it again next year?

Bald men in Pennsylvania who want to get elected to Congress have two paths bsky.app/profile/poli...

The new #TX09 is really going to be a test of candidate quality vs partisan lean. The Republicans are probably going to nominate far-right State Rep Briscoe Cain, while the Democrats are running former NASA Astronaut Terry Virts. However, it is a Trump+20 district.

The new #NC01 was designed to draw out Democratic incumbent Don Davis and at Trump+12, it stands a good chance at doing that. Still though, Don Davis is a strong overperformer and with 2026 shaping up to be a Democratic year, it's going to be a very competitive race.

Last month, the New York Democrats flipped the Onondaga County (Syracuse) Legislature for the first time in almost 50 years. The downballot strength for the GOP in this Harris+17 county finally crumbled as the Democrats flipped five seats, winning every seat they contested.

Here are my initial ratings for Arkansas's state legislative elections next year. The Democrats are aiming to break the Republican supermajority in the State House, but they need to flip seven seats in order to do so. Not impossible, but it's going to require big suburban gains.

DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED GEORGIA'S #HD121 (Trump+12): Eric Gisler (D)- 50.9% Mack "Dutch" Guest (R)- 49.1%

Final results in the Georgia #HD23 (Trump+47) special election: Bill Fincher (R)- 27.4% Scott Sanders (D)- 26.4% Brice Futch (R)- 22.3% Ann Gazell (R)- 12.1% Raj Sagoo (R)- 11.2% William Ware (R)- 0.3% Fincher and Sanders advance to a runoff in this deeply Republican district.

Final precinct reports in Oconee County, giving the Republican the lead back in Georgia's #HD121 (Trump+12): Mack "Dutch" Guest (R)- 51.6% Eric Gisler (D)- 48.4% Seven precincts left in heavily Democratic Athens, will it be enough to give Gisler the lead?

VERY close race in Georgia's #HD121 (Trump+12) with most of heavily Republican Oconee in and part of heavily Democratic Athens in: Eric Gisler (D)- 51.3% Mack "Dutch" Guest (R)- 48.7%

Final results in the Florida #SD11 (Trump+39) special election: Ralph Massullo (R)- 59.2% Ash Marwah (D)- 40.8% A 21-point swing to the left in a deeply Republican part of Florida!

Currently looking at the early/mail split in Georgia's #HD121 (Trump+13) and the Democrat is currently outrunning the 2024 State House margin in reported precincts here by around 25 points. The 2024 State House race here was R+22, so this is going to be super close

Close-to-final results in Florida's #HD90 (Harris+10): Rob Long (D)- 63.7% Maria Zack (R)- 35.3% Karen Yeh (NPA)- 1% Nearly 20 point overperformance for the Democrats in this Palm Beach County seat

Sumter County, Florida (The Villages): 2024 President: R+37.5 2025 #SD11 Special Election: R+21 Old people swinging left!

Early vote just dropped in the Georgia #HD23 (Trump+47) special election: Bill Fincher (R)- 31.4% Scott Sanders (D)- 31.3% Brice Futch (R)- 17.5% Ann Gazell (R)- 11.4% Others- 8.4% E-day will determine if the Democrats get a candidate into the runoff here

About 80% in for the Florida #SD11 (Trump+40) special election: Ralph Massullo (R)- 58.2% Ash Marwah (D)- 41.8% Another big overperformance out of Florida incoming

Early vote in the Florida #HD90 (Harris+10) special election: Rob Long (D)- 72% Maria Zack (R)- 26.8% Karen Yeh (NPA)- 1.2% E-Day vote should shrink the margin, but we're looking at a significant overperformance in this Palm Beach County seat

The newest edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch is out now! In this edition, we’re covering all of tonight’s special elections in Florida, Georgia, and Iowa and launching the initial 2026 ratings for Arkansas. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

Guy in the charge of the Indiana Senate committee vote on redistricting is whining about people being mad about Trump before they vote on it

Democrats have their next flip opportunity tomorrow night in Georgia's #HD121, a Trump+12 seat covering southern Athens and neighboring Oconee County. It's a double-digit Trump seat, but the Democrats flipped a similar version of this district in the lead up to 2018 too.

In state legislative scoops news, I’m hearing that the Democrats could be landing an interesting candidate in Oregon’s #HD52 (Hood River, Harris+6, GOP-held) Former Chicago Tribune and NYT Reporter Hank Sanders appears poised to launch a campaign to flip the district blue.

I'm massively indifferent on the idea of Jasmine Crockett running for Senate, but seeing the collective meltdown of Election Twitter over it is really something

I honestly don’t know what to think about Five Nights at Freddy’s 2. Just felt a bit off as a movie with the final act just being sequel bait. 5/10 high as I’ll go

The longest-serving State Legislator in America today is running for yet another term! Texas Republican State Representative Tom Craddick is running for a 30th term in the State House, having first been elected in 1968!

Always funny to see Sean Trende getting dunked on, especially when it's from the GENUINE JUDICIAL SYSTEM

I don't know what gives me the ick more, people who I thought were smart teaming up with centrist scam PACs or people who I thought were smart teaming up with betting sites. A lot of election twitter who fall in these categories belong the the first one, but the second one shouldn't exist at all.

The new #CA48 could be California's premier battleground district next year. This Harris+3 district covering suburban San Diego and the atomic bomb of Democratic votes known as Palm Springs already has a bunch of Democrats running against Republican incumbent Darrell Issa.

WelcomePAC paying over $200,000 in consultants the first half of this year is a funny bit, I must say. What do you even need consultants for? "Hey, grift to centrists and collect billionaire checks." "GENIUS! HERE'S $10,000!"

The New Jersey Republicans hoped to flip #LD11 from the Democrats this year on their quest to flip the State Assembly red. Of course, that failed miserably and they wiped out in LD-11, losing this Harris+4 district by a combined 12 points.

Last month in Virginia's #HD64, we saw a Republican incumbent go down in flames when Republican Delegate Paul Milde lost re-election by six points in his Trump+1 district. Milde, a right-wing culture warrior, lost to Democratic veteran Stacey Carroll in this suburban district.

Everyone has their beats when it comes to politics. For example, I try to tie everything to state legislative elections. I'm just glad my beat isn't trying to dunk on progressives and promoting an ideology that's rapidly dying because being milquetoast in 2025 is lame as hell

It is actually crazy that #TN07 was as close to Generic Republican vs Generic Democrat as you can get (and that's being a little generous to Aftyn Behn) and it's resulting in a D+15 overperformance. Adjust your 2026 priors accordingly!

Meanwhile in Georgia, Akbar Ali won the #HD106 (Harris+20) runoff against a fellow Democrat. Ali's only 21 years old, making him one of the youngest state legislators in Georgia history!

If you're a Tennessee Republican looking at these results in #TN07, you gotta be scared for #TN05 next year. Republican incumbent who's not really raising any money, Democratic opponent who's raised nearly $1 million already, AND it's a district that's 10% bluer than TN-07.

Bring back the needle you cowards

Just to wrap back around on this, this State Rep also endorsed the Republican Mayor of Sandy Springs against a Democrat. Georgia Dems primary PLS bsky.app/profile/uncr...