Right-wingers for as long as I can remember: "Why is everything so political nowadays? Can't a guy watch football or watch TV without seeing political stuff?" Right-wingers nowadays: "OUR GLORIOUS LEADER IS NOW ON YOUR CASH, NOW THE TV SHOULD WORSHIP HIM OR BE CENSORED" bsky.app/profile/nbcn...

Here is my first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Arizona! Arizona is one of the premier state legislative backgrounds this year, with the Democrats needing to win several marginal suburban Phoenix/Tucson seats in order to flip both chambers.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of state legislative ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Arizona! After falling short of flipping both chambers in 2024, can the Democrats avenge their loss and potentially give Governor Hobbs a trifecta for her second term?

Here are my first ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Nevada! Thanks to gerrymandering, the Nevada Dems are pretty safe this year. Governor Joe Lombardo is trying to use his popularity to elect more Republicans, but for now, both chambers are Dem-favored.

Here are my first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Iowa! With a strong top of the ticket thanks to Rob Sand running for Governor, the Democrats could get some strong coattails. They'll probably break the House Republican supermajority because of it.

TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Iowa & Nevada are released! With a strong top of the ticket, can the Democrats gain ground in Iowa? And can the Democrats use their gerrymandered maps to their advantage to claw back in Nevada?

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED FLORIDA'S #SD14 (Trump+7): Brian Nathan (D)- 50.2% Josie Tomkow (R)- 49.8%

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED DONALD TRUMP'S STATE HOUSE DISTRICT IN FLORIDA'S #HD87: Emily Gregory (D)- 51.2% Jon Maples (R)- 48.8%

It is TIGHT in Florida's #SD14 (Trump+7): Brian Nathan (D)- 50.4% Josie Tomkow (R)- 49.6% 4 precincts left and Nathan is up by 680 votes!

Near final results in the Florida #HD51 (Trump+14) special election: Hilary Holley (R)- 54.8% Edwin Perez (D)- 45.2% Decent overperformance from the Democrats here in Polk County, but the two big ones are still yet to come in SD-14 & HD-87

Per the always excellent @mcimaps.bsky.social, the early vote electorate here was only D+2. Democratic persuasion go brrrr bsky.app/profile/uncr...

Early vote just dropped in the Florida #HD87 (Trump+11) special election: Emily Gregory (D)- 58.4% Jon Maples (R)- 41.6% Very good start for the Dems as they look to flip Trump's State House district!

Early vote just dropped in the Florida #SD14 (Trump+7) special election: Brian Nathan (D)- 52.7% Josie Tomkow (R)- 47.3% E-day voting has been pretty good for Republicans, so this one will be close!

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now! This time, I’m covering tonight’s special elections in Florida and going over a bunch of ratings launches. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

Final bit of SLEW ratings news tonight, as Illinois gets multiple rating changes thanks to candidates getting removed from the ballot and general rating changes. Overall, the same as it was when I first launched them back in November. The Illinois GOP is in a huge hole.

Here are my first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Tennessee! In a deeply gerrymandered state, the Republicans are heavily favored to keep their majorities. The Dems have a few pickup opportunities in suburban Memphis/Knoxville though.

Here are my first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Maine! Overall, the Democrats are favored to hold on to both chambers, but the State House and its over 30(!) competitive races could make things a bit hard to predict.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative races in Maine & Tennessee! Can the Democrats hold on to power in Maine's legislature after narrowly keeping control of it in 2024? And can the Democrats crawl out of superminority hell in Tennessee?

Can the Florida Democrats flip Donald Trump's State House district? They're certainly making a run at it, heavily investing in flipping #HD87 in coastal Palm Beach County. This district backed Trump by 10, but it's very close in early voting and the Dems raised a lot of money.

Chicago moderates did score a win on Tuesday in #HD12, where Paul Kendrick won the primary to succeed Margaret Croke in this district covering rich areas north of downtown. Kendrick, who bragged about being yelled at by fellow Dems for being "tough on crime," won by 24 points.

Tennessee State Representative G.A. Hardaway might have pulled the laziest move I've ever seen in a campaign. He only needed 25 signatures to make the ballot for the primary. He turned in 47 and 23 of those were struck. He's running a write-in campaign now, but literally no other candidate filed.

Four years after he called Chicago a hellhole, Darren Bailey flopped once again in Cook County, losing it to Ted Dabrowski on Tuesday. Bailey lost it by 17, with Dabrowski destroying him in the northern suburbs. Didn't matter for Bailey, as he won by 25 statewide..

This guy literally rage quit his job as State Representative back in 2024 because a candidate he didn't like won his home town in the #ME02 Republican primary. Now? He's running for State Senate this year. So much for retiring lol

With Hoan Huynh running for #IL09 (and getting a whopping 2% of the vote), his #HD13 on the north side of Chicago featured an open primary on Tuesday. In the end, Army vet Demi Palecek won out, with the progressive turning back some seriously strong opposition to win by 14%.

the 2026 IL CD-09 Congressional Democratic primary, a contest between Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, Journalist Kat Abughazaleh, State Senator Laura Fine, among others (including State Senator Mike Simmons, former FBI agent Phil Andrew and Progressive Bushra Amiwala)

Over in #IL06, Democratic incumbent Sean Casten faced a primary challenge from the left in the form of Joey Ruzevich. Casten was able to easily win, but lost/nearly lost several Muslim-heavy areas, especially around Little Palestine in Cook County.

While State Senator Karina Villa came short of winning the State Comptroller primary against the Pritzker-endorsed Margaret Croke, she was able to win Chicago! She put together a coalition of Hispanics and progressives, which overcame Croke's base of moderates and Black voters.

Progressives notched a huge win in Illinois's #HD40 on Tuesday when community organizer Miguel Alvelo-Rivera unseated incumbent Democrat Jaime Andrade. This northwest side district saw one of the last vestiges of the establishment machine fall with Alvelo-Rivera winning by 11.

I know you have to have a little bit of an ego to run for office, but this might be the most egotistical thing I’ve ever heard a politician say lol. Who is Joseph Severino? idk

The 2026 IL-07th congressional election, a contest that pitted longtime rep (Danny Davis’) Chosen successor state Rep La Shawn Ford against Chicago treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, Progressive Anthony Driver, 3 time candidate Kina Collins and the peanut gallery against each other

Found out that the Republican running for US Senate here in Illinois that was most known for working for a Polish-American group won my heavily Polish home town despite almost losing by 30 points statewide. We are NOT beating the allegations

Here's how the city of Evanston voted in last night's #IL09 primary. Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss was able to win his home city thanks to big wins among white voters. However, Kat Abughazaleh was able to win big with Northwestern students and kept it close elsewhere.

Here's how my precinct (Stickney 11) voted in yesterday's primary: US Senate: Raja 44-34 over Stratton Comptroller: Croke 39-35 over Villa Cook County Board President: Preckwinkle +19 Cook County Assessor: Hynes+8 Honestly more progressive than I thought from my home town lol

People know they don’t have to post if they don’t want to right? Right?

One interesting county-level result from last night came from DuPage County, where Democratic County Board member Sadia Covert lost re-election to Naperville City Councilman Ian Holzhauer. Ian is the brother of Jeopardy! legend James Holzhauer!

Hispanic voters were a criminally under discussed demographic in the primary, but they seem to have went to Stratton by a good margin. bsky.app/profile/sage...

The 2026 IL Senate Democratic Primary in Chicago — in Limiting Raja Krishnamoorthi to only the most ethnic-white parts of Chicago Proper, Lt. Gov Julianna Stratton was able to get a 20+ victory over the Suburban Congressman in a city that powered her to a statewide win.

NEWS: The Associated Press calls Demerike Palecek as winner of the Democratic primary in house district 13, a big win for the progressive upstart and vocal anti-ICE protester

One final race call for the night: Republican State Representative/Deputy Minority Leader Norrine Hammond has LOST re-election to Joshua Higgins, who was backed by the Freedom Caucus. Biggest win for the Freedom Caucus in the legislature here that I can think of.

Just to show how bad it got for Raja, when Kane County dropped its early vote, he was winning it by 23 points (53-30 over Stratton). Now that every vote is in, Raja won it by 6 (43-37 over Stratton).

Only major uncalled race left is the State Comptroller race, which is super close with 20% of the vote outstanding: Margaret Croke- 34.9% Karina Villa- 32.5% Holly Kim- 24% Stephanie Kifowit- 8.6% Croke has a 24,000 vote lead and I think she'll probably win.

Overall, good night for progressives. A couple of losses for Congress, but they were able to beat back AIPAC in the most high-profile race (#IL09) and won big in the US Senate primary with Stratton. And that's not getting into the State Legislature, where they had a great night.

She might not have won, but still a very impressive campaign from Kat Abughazaleh. Doing better than three State Legislators, including one heavily backed by outside money, as a first-time candidate (whose connections to the district are shaky) is impressive.

RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI CONCEDES- WGN JULIANA STRATTON IS OFFICIALLY THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR US SENATE IN ILLINOIS!

COOK COUNTY ASSESSOR FRITZ KAEGI CONCEDES- WGN Lyons Township Assessor Pat Hynes unseats the progressive Assessor because of property taxes rising (especially in the suburbs)

One annoying race result came in #HD12, where Paul Kendrick won the race to succeed Margaret Croke in the Gold Coast area. This is guy who bragged about "Democrats getting mad at him" for being tough on crime, so he's as annoying as you'd think he is

Here's where things stand in the State Comptroller race: Margaret Croke- 35.3% Karina Villa- 32.7% Holly Kim- 23.5% Stephanie Kifowit- 8.5% Pritzker-backed State Rep Margaret Croke is up by 23,000 votes with about 30% of the vote left

RACE CALL: Juliana Stratton has WON the Democratic primary for US Senate Raja's vote is just collapsing as E-day votes are tallied, Stratton's late momentum really paid off here

Final Results in the Pennsylvania #HD79 (Trump+32) special election: Andrea Verobish (R)- 57.6% Caleb McCoy (D)- 42.4% 17 point overperformance for the Pennsylvania Democrats in the mighty city of Altoona!

Big day for people using gambling sites as sources of data to tell how a race is going