Marie Newman going all in to elect Joey Ruzevich over Sean Casten in #IL06 because she does not like Casten is hilarious. Like she does NOT like Casten. In a downballot State House race between two similar-ish Democrats, she endorsed the primary opponent to Casten's endorsed candidate.

The only State House seat the Florida Dems flipped in 2024 was #HD45 in the Orlando area. That's where former Disney executive Leonard Spencer unseated indicted Republican incumbent Carolina Amesty. Yes, the former Disney executive flipped the district containing Disney World.

While the political world waits for a winner Progressive @analiliafornj.bsky.social leads in the Contest to replace Gov Mikie Sherrill by 0.8% over former Congressman Tom Malinowski — with a Divided field of former LG Tahesha Way, Essex Commissioner Brendan Gill, & others taking the rest

ANALILIA MEJIA TAKES THE LEAD IN #NJ11

Mejia now only trails Malinowski by 400 VOTES in #NJ11. With how well Mejia has done in the election day vote, I think she stands a very good chance at taking the lead

Kind of a crazy early/e-day vote split in #NJ11 so far: Essex Early: Malinowski- 33%, Mejia- 23.3% Essex E-Day: Mejia- 37.8%, Malinowski- 22.2% Morris Early: Malinowski- 43.5%, Mejia- 17% Morris E-Day: Mejia- 37.9%, Malinowski- 21.4% Malinowski has definitely not won yet

Also, Tahesha Way had millions of dollars in support of her campaign (and had the help of AIPAC spending millions to knock down Tom Malinowski) and she's currently sitting in fourth with 14%. bsky.app/profile/uncr...

This is before the Morris County drop (which will net Malinowski a large amount of votes), so Malinowski is probably the favorite to win right now in #NJ11. Of course, election day votes could still swing things!

Anti-woke messaging is a net negative among Democrats

California's #AD27 was a rare district in California that voted for Trump and re-elected a Democratic Assemblywoman in 2024. Said Assemblywoman Esmerelda Soria is running for State Senate this year, leaving this seat open. It's competitive, but it also backed Prop 50 by 13.

Contrary to what my mentions looked like after posting that Klobuchar landslide poll, Klobuchar's still really popular among Democrats minnesotareformer.com/briefs/klobu...

🚨🚨🚨 So......this is interesting A GOP to Dem party change in the NH House! And this is a district that Trump actually WON in 2020 by 8!! @trumpstaxes.com @uncrewed.bsky.social @proptermalone.bsky.social @gilmored85.bsky.social @golikehellmachine.com @ericmgarcia.bsky.social

In another example of the Oregon GOP realizing there are consequences to their actions, they'll have to defend #SD11 this year without their Republican incumbent because she's banned from running for walking out on too many legislative sessions. An own goal in a Harris+5 seat.

It looks like firefighter Chedrick Greene has won the Democratic nomination for Michigan's #SD35, the Harris+1 seat vacated by now-Congresswoman Kristen McDonald Rivet. Greene, who was backed by Rivet and labor groups, defeated Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh.

Yeah it looks like Diana Moreno has won #AD36 easily

And Hwang loses 55.8-43.9, a staggering 16 point swing from his four-point win here in his 2024 State Senate win. This town backed Harris by 26 points, but is more Republican downballot bsky.app/profile/uncr...

The New Mexico candidate filing deadline for statewide offices was today and it appears that Republicans didn't field candidates for both State Auditor & State Treasurer. If true, then it'd be the first time a Democratic state office holder will win uncontested since 1990!

Surprisingly very busy election week ahead: Tonight- Special elections from New York to Arkansas Thursday- #NJ11 primary Saturday- Louisiana special legislative elections (where the first Republican flip of the cycle could happen in a Dem-held, Trump+13 seat)

Scoop – State Sen. Laura Fine's campaign is out with an internal poll by GBAO Strategies that shows her tied with Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss at 21% in #IL09 Kat Abughazaleh is in third at 14%, per the polling memo. The poll was conducted Jan. 26-29.

On top of all the state legislative elections tonight, I also want to draw your attention to the town of Fairfield, CT, which has an election for Town Selectman. Republican State Senator Tony Hwang is running and if he wins, his Harris+18 seat will be up in a special election!

basically yglesias, jain, jentleson, WelcomePAC donors etc all base their prescriptions for Dems on a statistical model that nobody can replicate, and refuse to acknowledge (a) that uncertainty dwarfs the detectable effect of moderation & (b) that the last year has proved their views wrong!!

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now! This time around, we’re covering all of tonight’s special elections. Buckle in, there’s a lot of them! Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

In weird candidate filing news out of Oregon, a new Republican candidate has emerged in the open, Republican-held #HD52 (Harris+6.5) east of Portland. The newest Republican running is Darcy LaPier, who is an ex-model/actress who was married to Jean-Claude Van Damme in the 90s.

The Klobslide is the median outcome

If Dan Osborn stands any chance at unseating Pete Ricketts in Nebraska this year, then he's going to have to win Sarpy County in suburban Omaha. He won this Republican-leaning county against Deb Fischer by just under 400 votes, even as Trump won it by 11 points.

They're having anti-ICE protests in the Republican suburbs that have stayed stubbornly Republican in the Trump era, it is so over for them

Do you want to know the funniest part about the Texas #SD09 flip last night? The Republican who lost, Leigh Wambsganss, was the only Republican to file for the November election. All of her weaknesses that led to her losing, the GOP will still have to deal with in November.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED TEXAS'S #SD09 (Trump+17): Taylor Rehmet (D)- 57.2% Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 42.8% A monumental flip in the northern suburbs of Fort Worth!

It looks like the Republicans are conceding Texas's #SD09 to the Democrats. They're conceding a Trump+17 district in an area of Fort Worth that's been favorable to Republicans for decades, just a massive massive loss for them.

We are now up to 20% of precincts + all early vote reporting in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election: Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.6% Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.4% The Democratic lead continues to grow...

Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well

It took Tarrant County two hours to count 7 precincts in the #SD09 election. Could be a long night folks

We are very much in upset territory in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election. Early vote just dropped: Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.2% Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.8% Given that the early vote usually makes up a good chunk of the final vote, I think the Dems will win this one.

UPDATE: West Virginia Democrats are now at 86/100 State House districts contested and 16/19 State Senate districts contested with the filing deadline today. Those numbers might grow as candidates who filed by mail just have to have their paperwork postmarked by today. bsky.app/profile/did:...

It's special election tonight in Texas! It's in #SD09 to be precise, a Trump+17 district in the northern Fort Worth area. Democrat Taylor Rehmet fell short of winning here in November, getting 47% against two Republican opponents. Can he break 50% tonight?

I don't know what the West Virginia Democrats are doing, but they are COOKING so far when it comes to getting candidates to run for the State House/Senate. They're so far contesting 78/100 State House districts (after only contesting 53 in 2024) and 14/19 Senate district (only contested 9 in 2024)

Wisconsin's #AD21 is going to be a hugely competitive district this year in the battle for control of the State Assembly. Republican incumbent Jessie Rodriguez won this Harris+4 seat by 3 in 2024, but she faces a strong challenge from the Democratic Mayor of Oak Creek this year.

Men will make the worst Oscar nominated Best Picture film in the last decade and think that they’re political ball knowers bsky.app/profile/ghos...

Colorado's #HD51 is a rare Trump-Harris district. Centered on Loveland, this district backed Trump by 4 in 2020 before backing Harris by 1 in 2024. Republican incumbent Ron Weinberg recently announced he wasn't running for re-election, giving the Dems a big flip opportunity.

The Illinois Republican primary for Governor is Safe Darren Bailey until proven otherwise. Which means the race for Governor in November is Safe D until proven otherwise

The Alabama GOP is hoping to flip a Black Belt State House seat this year in #HD68. Democratic State Rep Thomas "Action" Jackson is set for a rematch with his 2022 opponent in this Harris+0.4 district. That was a race where Jackson won by 3 despite repping the area for 30 years.

Final results in the Minnesota #HD64A (Harris+71) special election: Meg Luger-Nikolai (DFL)- 95.5% Dan Walsh (R)- 4.5% A 20(!) point overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats in St. Paul!

Over half of the vote now reporting in the Minnesota #HD64A (Harris+71): Meg Luger-Nikolai (DFL)- 95.2% Dan Walsh (R)- 4.8% Not everyday you see an over 20 point overperformance in a district that backed a Presidential candidate by over 70 points, but today is one of those days

Watch out for #IA02 this year. It's an open seat because of Ashley Hinson running for Senate and the Republicans are coalescing behind a TPUSA acolyte who never represented any part of the district. Meanwhile, the Dems are running a Presbyterian minister State Rep from Dubuque in Lindsey James

If you ever think that your political party has hit its floor, just remember it can always, ALWAYS, get worse. Especially if your party is supporting the murder of an American citizen in broad daylight and the election is taking place miles from said murder.

Good lord Putin doesnt even rig it this big

Side note, there is also a special election tonight in Minnesota's #HD47A, a Harris+25 seat in the eastern MSP suburbs, but the Republicans left it uncontested. Yes, the Republicans are contesting a Harris+70 district, but not a district that's 50 points redder. bsky.app/profile/uncr...

We have a special election tonight in Minnesota's #HD64A, a Harris+71 seat in western St. Paul. This will be an easy Democratic hold, but it'll be interesting to see the margins here given MSP's recent time in the spotlight.

Proud to be voting for her in March :) bsky.app/profile/coun...

In "Politico is high" news, apparently one conservative businessman who has given millions of dollars to numerous different Republican gubernatorial candidates in Oregon is a sign that Republicans have become "more involved" in Oregon state politics.