The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering tomorrow’s primaries in Nebraska! They may be nonpartisan, but they might give us an interesting look into how “The Cornhusker State” is faring going into November. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

So we have two State Legislative Election Watches coming out this week for the Nebraska and West Virginia primaries. And then next week? SIX for Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, & Pennsylvania's primaries. Pray for my sanity lol

Back at it

Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Washington! The Washington Democrats have several opportunities to flip seats this year, mostly owing to the fact that the Republicans are defending 14(!) Harris-won seats this year.

COMING TONIGHT: My first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Washington! Can the Washington Democrats continue to pick off the remaining Harris-district Republicans? Or can the Republicans regain a modicum of power in Olympia?

In 2024, the Minnesota GOP flipped the Winona-based #HD26A from blue to red. This Biden+5 seat swung to Trump+0.3, but Republican Aaron Repinski outran the top of the ticket by a healthy amount en route to flipping it red. The Minnesota Dems are hoping to flip it back this year.

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills right now, assuming the expected states redistrict, the Democrats essentially need to flip 10-15 seats in the non-redistricted states to flip the House. And that’s crazy to believe i guess?

Back in March, IL-02 Congresswoman Robin Kelly finished a distant third in Illinois's US Senate primary. She did, however, manage to win Kankakee County (which she has represented in Congress for the last decade). A big win in Kankakee city was enough to get her a 10 point win.

HUGE retirement for the Republicans in the Wisconsin Assembly. Rodriguez won by 3 in 2024 as Kamala Harris carried her #AD21 by 4 points. The Democrats already had a great recruit running with Oak Creek Mayor Dan Bukiewicz, they have to be favorites to flip the district. bsky.app/profile/the-...

The Michigan Democrats kept full control of the State Senate after winning the #SD35 special election last night in a landslide. Democrat Chedrick Greene won this Harris+1 district in the Tri-Cities by 19 points, the best Democratic performance here in decades at least.

In 2024, the Oregon Democrats won a supermajority in the State Senate when they flipped #SD27. This Bend-area seat backed Harris by 23 points, but the Republicans' job was made much harder when the incumbent was banned from running again for walking out on sessions.

Final call of the night: Indiana Republican State Representative Bruce Borders has LOST his bid for re-election. The part-time Elvis impersonator (not kidding about that!) had a Trump endorsement, but still lost to Knox County Commissioner Kellie Streeter by six points.

RACE CALL: In Ohio's #HD40, alleged incestual pedophile/Republican incumbent Rodney Creech has won his primary in this deeply Republican district. Just so you know, let them carry this around their neck. The Ohio Republicans LITERALLY ENDORSED HIM FOR RE-ELECTION

Chedrick Greene is literally outperforming Governor Whitmer in precincts where she got 90%+ of the vote in #SD35

Quick update on those last two anti-redistricting Republican Senators in Indiana: #SD06 (70% reporting): Jay Starkey- 56% Rick Niemeyer (Inc)- 44% #SD23 (>95% reporting): Spencer Deery (Inc)- 50% Paula Copenhaver- 50% Just THREE votes separate Deery and Copenhaver right now!

Two former Congresspeople have easily won their State House primaries in Ohio: Former OH-18 Congressman John Boccieri (D) has won the Democratic nomination in #HD58 (Harris+5), while former OH-02 Congresswoman "Mean Jean" Schmidt easily won re-nomination in #HD62 (Trump+29).

Yeah, Chedrick Greene is easily outrunning Governor Whitmer in precincts reported so far (and she won this district by 13 points), the Dems are going to retain Michigan's #SD35 easily.

The last two anti-redistricting Republican Senators in Indiana's primaries: #SD06 (40% in): Jay Starkey- 51% Rick Niemeyer (Inc)- 49% #SD23: Paula Copenhaver- 54.9% Spencer Deery- 45.1% The anti-redistricting Republicans might honestly go 1-7 tonight.

Early results in Ohio's #HD40, but an accused pedophile/Republican incumbent is currently easily winning his primary:

Most surprising primary result so far in Indiana? Republican Congressman Jefferson Shreve in #IN06 is barely winning his primary against an unheralded opponent with 60% in:

ANOTHER anti-redistricting incumbent has fallen in Indiana, this time Linda Rogers in #SD11 (South Bend suburbs/exurbs): Brian Schmutzler- 55.8% Linda Rogers (Inc)- 44.2% Just have two more anti-redistricting Senators left with races to call, but they've gone 1-4 tonight.

Big win for the Trump team as anti-redistricting incumbent Senator Greg Walker has LOST in #SD41 (Columbus area): Michelle Davis- 54.9% Greg Walker (Inc)- 45.1% Walker was a vocal critic of redistricting, but he's losing by 10 points to State Representative Michelle Davis

Two more anti-redistricting Republican incumbents have fallen in Indiana: #SD01: Trevor de Vries is walloping State Senator Dan Dernulc by a 72-25 margin with 35% of the vote in #SD21: NBC has officially called it for Tracey Powell over Senator Jim Buck, who's losing 37-63.

Big win for the anti-redistricting Republicans, as Greg Goode has held on and won in #SD38 (Vigo/Clay Counties): Greg Goode (Inc)- 54.5% Brenda Wilson- 35.8% Alexandra Wilson- 9.7% The Trump team tried desperately to get Alexandra off the ballot, but it didn't matter anyway.

Remember when George Hornedo got a bit of hype in #IN07 for his challenge to Andre Carson? Yeah it's not going well with the early vote in: Andre Carson- 64.2% Destiny Wells- 22.3% George Hornedo- 9.8% Denise Paul Hatch- 3.7%

50% of the vote now reporting in the Indiana #SD19 primary: Blake Fiechter- 60% Travis Holdman (Inc)- 40% Holdman voted against redistricting and Fiechter nearly dropped out of the race due to lack of support. Now he's looking good to unseat the first incumbent of the night.

Our first substantial results are in for the Indiana redistricting primaries and it comes from #SD41 in the Columbus area: Michelle Davis- 52% Greg Walker (Inc)- 48% 40% reporting

I genuinely believe Griffin is triggered whenever someone brings up Chicago/Illinois to him because it reminds him he wasted tens of millions of dollars on Richard Irvin to come in third place in 2022. bsky.app/profile/wsj....

For reference, Vigo County is the site of a redistricting-driven primary where Trump's lackeys and Turning Point USA have spent a boat load of money. Despite that, turnout at approximately a few hours ago was only tilting in the GOP's direction by 4 points. It's a Trump+18 county!

For those tracking the Indiana primaries tonight, don’t forget that the state is split between Eastern and Central time. Almost all of the State Senators who voted against redistricting come from the eastern standard time portion, but two are in central time, so we‘ll have to wait another hour.

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now! This time, we’re covering the big Michigan #SD35 special election tonight and going more in depth on a few forecast launches. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

I'll go with #TX35, New Hampshire US Senate, and Iowa Gov. TX-35 because if Hispanics and suburbanites are swinging towards Dems, we'll see it there (given it's p much Generic D vs Generic R rn), New Hampshire because it was a good omen in 2022, and Iowa because Rob Sand bsky.app/profile/chic...

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now! This time around, we’re covering all the primaries going down in Indiana tomorrow. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

Corrupt is more electable better be what he takes away from this

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now! This time around, we’re covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in Ohio on Tuesday. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now! This time around, we’re covering all of the state legislative primaries going down in Ohio on Tuesday. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

Here is my first forecast for this year's state legislative elections in Colorado! The Democrats need to win two more seats in the State House in order to regain the supermajority (which I think they'll do) and flip one seat in the Senate to make a supermajority there (toss-up).

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Colorado! Can the Democrats win back their State House supermajority they lost in 2024? And can they go one step further and create one in the Senate?

It's a special election Saturday in Texas! It's in #SD04 to be precise, a Trump+34 district stretching from Port Arthur to the northern exurbs of Houston in Montgomery County. The Republicans should win this one easily.

It's genuinely crazy that: A) Sharif Street was allowed to keep his job as Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman and B) He's running for Congress in the most Democratic district in the country and hasn't been laughed out of the room after proposing this map during the last round of redistricting

Happy May Day everybody! Back in 2017, Missouri tried to pass a Right to Work Law, but voters were able to put the measure up for a veto referendum in 2018. In the end, the voters overwhelmingly defeated Right to Work, with the law being repealed by a 35 point margin!

It's a jumpscare moment when I'm looking up Ohio candidates for the Ohio Primary Preview and I see several Republicans boasting about being endorsed by a former Election Twitter conservative who I have argued with a bunch in the past

The closest Republican win in the Wisconsin Assembly in 2024 came in #AD88, a Trump 2020-Harris 2024 district south of Green Bay. Republican Ben Franklin won here by a smidge over 200 votes while Harris carried this district by a little over 100 votes.

I said this on the other site and Lakshya got very mad that I pointed out that Americans are not in agreement with "tough-on-crime" policies (a majority like the current system/want softer punishments), and his own data shows Dems improving on the crime issue from 2025-2026. bsky.app/profile/gell...

Can confirm, just paid $4.99/gallon in the southwest suburbs of Chicago. I'm tired of winning boss bsky.app/profile/gasb...

The only Trump-district Democrat in the Wisconsin State Legislature is Steve Doyle in #AD94 in the La Crosse area. Doyle won re-election in 2024 by a little over 300 votes as Trump carried his district by two points and Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin lost it by 13 votes!

COLORADO FINALLY POSTED A CANDIDATE LIST A MONTH AFTER THE CANDIDATE FILING DEADLINE

One oddly specific prediction I have for this year is that you are going to see non-Californians on Election Twitter who are like centrists or moderates endorse the Republican for Secretary of State because the vote counts take too long. Please prove me wrong, PLEASE!

Last month's #IL08 Democratic primary saw Melissa Bean get one step closer to a Congressional comeback over a decade after she was swept out of office in the 2010 Tea Party wave. Bean won the messy primary to succeed Raja Krishnamoorthi with the help of millions in AIPAC money.