Me convincing myself to spend money on something I don't need

Another month has passed and things are still looking pretty dire for the Virginia GOP. The lack of improvement at the top of the ticket alongside bad campaign finance numbers means a lot of districts are now more likely to flip blue come November. Safe D chamber at the moment.

Y'know, one of the reasons why the Dems lost the Minnesota Senate election back in 2002 was because many people felt like they politicized the funeral of Paul Wellstone. It caused Mondale to lose, which meant that he had officially lost every single state in the country in one election or another.

Every wave election has a district that flips out of the blue. Think OK-05 in 2018 or TX-27 in 2010 for example. My pick for that type of district in 2026 is #NC11. This western North Carolina district backed Trump by 9 in 2024, which was actually a leftward swing from 2020!

It's actually crazy how many #IL09 candidates were at that ICE protest in Broadview today. Obviously Kat Abu got most of the focus on here, but Daniel Biss was also there and apparently Bushra Amiwala got hit by a car(?). On the Senate side, apparently only Juliana Stratton was there.

Back in 2020, Lauren Underwood won re-election in #IL14 in the state's most competitive congressional race that year. Underwood narrowly defeated Illinois State Senator/dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, who actually declared victory on election night before he ended up losing.

Michigan State Representative Reggie Miller is a Democrat who will probably need to win re-election next year in order for the Michigan Democrats to win back the State House. She represents a Trump+3 district west of Detroit, but won re-election by one point in 2024.

A special edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering what happened in Vermont last year. How did one of the bluest states in the country experience a red wave? Find out in this map-filled edition of the SLEW! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

Guys, I beg y'all, Minnesota has precinct data available on election night for a reason. It's to disprove narratives like these. The most "Republican" part of #HD34B (all the precincts voted for the Dem tonight) saw LOWER turnout than the rest of the district.

Near-complete final results in Minnesota's #HD34B (Harris+26) special election: Xp Lee (DFL)- 61.1% Ruth Bittner (R)- 38.9% Slight underperformance from 2024 as Lee succeeds Melissa Hortman after she was assassinated earlier this year.

It is special election night in Minnesota. Specifically, it's in #HD34B in the Brooklyn Park area. This Harris+26 seat became open when Democratic State Rep Melissa Hortman was assassinated back in June. It should be an easy Democratic win, though one heavily tinged with grief.

The Virginia House Speaker is liking a tweet about an Oregon election?

Shor-ism and its consequences

Last week, Oregon State Rep Cyrus Javadi switched parties, becoming a Democrat. He's running for re-election next year and he's got a good shot at winning re-election. His #HD32 in northwest Oregon backed Harris by 5 points last year as he (as a Republican) won it by 4.

California's 1982 US Senate election saw a battle between two political heavyweights, Republican San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson and Democratic Governor Jerry Brown. In the end, Wilson defeated Brown by seven points, capping off a terrible year for California Democrats.

Funniest part of the 2022 Illinois gubernatorial election was when, in an attempt to better understand the city of Chicago, far-right GOP nominee Darren Bailey decided to rent out an apartment with all the rich people in the Hancock Tower. I am not making this up. abc7chicago.com/post/john-ha...

Two years after nearly unseating Republican Governor Bruce Rauner in a Republican primary, conservative firebrand Jeanne Ives decided to make a run for #IL06 against freshman Democrat Sean Casten. Ives ended up losing this suburban district by seven as Trump was losing it by 12.

Massachusetts Congressman Stephen Lynch has been in office for over 20 years at this point, but did you know his Congressional career got started on 9/11? Back in 2001, Lynch won the Democratic primary for #MA09, which just so happened to take place on/during 9/11.

New Mexico State Representative Martin Ruben Zamora recently announced a run for #NM03 next year. He's an interesting guy, having been in office since 2018. That year he flipped #HD63, defeating one of the last white rural Democrats in New Mexico in the process.

The 2025 Special Election in VA’s 5th Congressional District, a contest between Braddock District Fairfax Supervisor James Walkinshaw and Government relations professional Stewart Whitson saw Walkinshaw landslide Whitson on his path to claim the 11th District for the Democrats

Close-to-final results in #VA11 (Harris+34): James Walkinshaw (D)- 74.9% Stewart Whitson (R)- 25.1% A 16 point overperformance from 2024 in northern Virginia! Definitely not a good sign for the Virginia GOP's hopes in November.

Probably a good sign for Spanberger/Virginia Legislative Dems that the Dems are outperforming Harris by 15 points in a NoVA special election two months before election day.

It's special election night in Virginia! #VA11 to be exact, where the Democrats are defending a Harris+34 seat. This is absolutely an easy Democratic hold, but the margins will be interesting to watch. Maybe it'll even give us a preview of what's to come in NoVA later this year.

If you thought that the Illinois GOP wasn't cooked in 2026 already, well... capitolfax.com/2025/09/08/s...

Illinois Democrats are hoping to flip #SD24 next year in DuPage County. This suburban district backed Harris by three points last year, but elected Republican State Senator Seth Lewis by four points in 2022. Still, most Democrats in 2022 won it so Lewis is a top target.

Chris Pappas is the favorite to become New Hampshire's next US Senator, so here's how he started his Congressional career. Back in 2018, Pappas won a messy primary to win the Democratic nomination in #NH01. Maura Sullivan, who came in 2nd, is running to succeed Pappas in 2026!

Every Dhaaruni tweet is just “I’m a Democrat, but *insert right wing talking point here*” I believe her when she says that Republicans are too right-wing for her, but that doesn’t mean that Dems should be listening to her spewing weird shit like this bsky.app/profile/rod3...

Over in Michigan, Governor Gretchen Whitmer finally scheduled the special election for #SD35 last week. The seat had sat vacant since January when State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet resigned it to become MI-08 Congresswoman. Despite the district backing Harris by 1, the Dems should hold it.

Lakshya is a great example of someone going "Hey, do you know how I'm really good at data modelling and election modelling? Yeah, well FUCK THAT I'M GOING INTO THE CULTURE WAR!" bsky.app/profile/conv...

The Virginia Democrats have plenty of targets to flip in the State House this year, but one stands out, #HD34 in Harrisonburg. This district backed Trump by seven, but the Democrats are hoping for big youth turnout out of Harrisonburg (James Madison University) to flip it blue.

There's only one Democratic target in the Arkansas State Senate next year, #SD13 in the northern Little Rock suburbs. The district has been trending to the left over the last decade, with Trump only winning it by 1.5%. Plus it has a term-limited Republican incumbent!

Final results in Florida's two special state legislative elections: #SD15 (Harris+23): LaVon Bracy Davis (D)- 72.6% Willie Montague (R)- 27.4% #HD40 (Harris+35): RaShon Young (D)- 75.1% Tuan Le (R)- 24.9% 22 and 15 point overperformances from 2024 respectively!

Early/Mail-in votes in for the two Florida special elections tonight in #SD15 (Harris+23) and #HD40 (Harris+35). Dems are up by 49 and 51 points respectively. Election day should lower those margins, but big overperformances from 2024 should be the final outcome.

We need to have a serious discussion about Democratic politicians becoming involved with terminally online conservative freaks

We have two special state legislative elections in Florida tonight! Specifically, in the Orlando area where SD-15 and HD-40 are up for grabs. Both are solidly blue districts (SD-15 is Harris+23 and HD-40 is Harris+35), so both should be easy Democratic holds.

Happy Labor Day everybody! Last year, Massachusetts became the first state in the country to give rideshare drivers the right to unionize with the passing of Question 3. The referendum passed by 8 points, with the YES side winning big in urban areas.

Have you wondered why Kevin Kiley is now suddenly all about nonpartisan redistricting? Well, it's because Gavin Newsom wants to turn his #CA03 into a Harris+10 district, simple as that. He currently represents a Trump+3 district, so he'd be screwed if Prop 50 passes in November.

With Indiana Republicans looking at gerrymandering #IN01, it's worth wondering why. On the surface, it's a district that backed Harris by just one point last year. On the other hand, it's a lot more Democratic downballot as Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan won by 8 last year.

The Argument is bad because it causes talented, data-driven people who have spend way too much time arguing online to now focus more on arguing with people online instead of working on what they’re actually really good at. Send post

One of the more proficient ticket-splitting State Reps in Illinois is Anthony DeLuca in #HD80. Representing a sprawling district from rural Will County to the outskirts of Chicago, DeLuca won his Harris+6 seat by 18 points last year.

The proposed Democratic gerrymander of California doesn't just target Republicans, it also shores up some vulnerable Democrats, take #CA27 for example. By cutting out parts of the northern part of LA County and adding in more of Los Angeles, it goes from Harris+3 to Harris+10.

The 2025 IA SD-1 Special Election, Following Sen. Rocky De Witt’s death due to pancreatic cancer saw strong fund raiser Catelin Drey best the Right wing Republican Chris Prosch in her quest to flip this seat blue & successfully break the GOP supermajority in the Iowa state senate

Final results in the Alabama #HD11 (Trump+82) special election: Heath Allbright (R)- 88.8% Alexandria Braswell (D)- 11.2% Four point overperformance from 2024 in deep red north Alabama!

Final results in Iowa's #SD01 (Trump+11): Catelin Drey (D)- 55.2% Christopher Prosch (R)- 44.8% That's a 22 point overperformance from 2024 AND a broken Republican supermajority in the State Senate. bsky.app/profile/uncr...

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED IOWA'S #SD01 (Trump+11), BREAKING THE REPUBLICAN SUPERMAJORITY IN THE STATE SENATE: Catelin Drey (D)- 54.5% Christopher Prosch (R)- 45.5%

Half of the vote in so far in Iowa's #SD01 (Trump+11) special election: Catelin Drey (D)- 55.1% Christopher Prosch (R)- 44.9% Flip incoming?

Early/Mail-in votes have reported in Georgia's #SD21 (Trump+34) special election: Debra Shigley (D)- 46.2% Steve West (R)- 15.8% Jason Dickerson (R)- 15.6% Brian Will (R)- 10.6% Other Republicans- 11.8% If nobody gets over 50% (very likely), we go to a runoff in September.

Found a guy on TikTok who hates "corporate Democrats" for not trying populism and then has multiple videos promoting Mikie Sherrill for Governor of New Jersey

The newest edition of Uncrewed’s State Legislative Election Watch is out now! This time around, we’re covering all the special state legislative elections going down tonight from around the country. Check it out below! open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

Tomorrow we have a special election in California's #AD63, a Trump+13 seat in western Riverside County. This has been a pretty solidly Republican district in the Inland Empire, but the Democrats overperformed in the first round back in June. Should still be a GOP hold though.