Also in today's Digest: • Our previews of tonight's elections in GA, MS & NH • A retired astronaut's campaign for #TNGov quickly crashes back to earth • Kevin Kiley is ditching his party label for the ballot but will still caucus w/the House GOP And much more!

Just weeks before the April 7 election for a conservative-held open seat on the WI Supreme Court, *another* conservative justice announced her retirement. Amazingly, Annettee Ziegler didn't even have an opponent in her last race. Now liberals are poised to expand their majority even further.

Trump "also was irritated when news articles from Axios and The Atlantic published Wednesday declaring that Trump was 'expected' to endorse Cornyn .... Trump and others in his orbit hate when stories get out ahead of official announcements."

In terms of importance, the subhed and hed should be reversed. The real story is that Kiley is still caucusing with the GOP. As long as he keeps voting for leaders' rules packages, that's all that matters. Changing his official designation to "independent" doesn't change how the House operates.

Special election for an R-held seat in New Hampshire's ginormous state House (400 members!). Carroll County District 7, which includes Ossipee, Tuftonboro & Wolfeboro, went for Trump by 9 points in 2024, so potentially flippable for Dems. Our full special elections Big Board is here:

From @dallasnews.com: "Texas Democrats post highest Senate primary turnout in decades, topping Republican vote"

In North Carolina, D share of midterm primary vote predicts general election results (plot has contested Senate & House races since '14) ~57% of votes Tuesday were Democratic — even considering historical reversion to 50%, such a lopsided result indicative of strong tailwind for Ds in must-win race

Are Iowa Republicans worried about losing this year's open-seat race for governor? Democrats say that new GOP bills are trying to weaken the power of the governorship—something Republicans elsewhere have done when faced with a loss of the governor's mansion.

Also in today's Digest: • Kathy Hochul: There's "not an urgency" to pass a redistricting amendment • GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley will seek reelection as an independent while Republicans "hope to God" he doesn't quit caucus • NC Senate prez Phil Berger now trails primary opponent by 23 votes And more!

Darrell Issa in December: “I can hold this seat, I’m not quitting on California, and neither should anyone else.” Darrell Issa on Friday: [quits on California] Our extended recap of the Republican's long and tumultuous career in today's newsletter -->

Another conservative justice on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, Annette Ziegler, just announced she'll retire ahead of next year's elections. Her announcement comes just weeks before conservatives are trying to defend a different open seat. Liberals could emerge with a 6-1 majority by 2027.

Former Nebraska state Sen. Brett Lindstrom has dropped his GOP affiliation and re-registered as an independent. Earlier this cycle, Lindstrom waged a bid for the open #NE02 but bailed last month, saying, “I don’t feel like I fit in this political environment."

Of the five GOP reps who got drawn out by Prop 50: Valadao: Staying and fighting Kiley: Moving to another district that he’ll probably still lose (as an independent???) Calvert: Trying to backstab Young Kim Issa: Retiring LaMalfa: Dead

Current GOP Rep Kevin Kiley will run as an Independent lol

In California, candidates file to run for office in the county they live in, so for Darrell Issa, that's San Diego County. If you wanna keep clicking refresh, it'll be here: www.sdvote.com/content/rov/...

Indiana Republican Blake Fiechter, who was running against a GOP senator who opposed redistricting but dropped out after less than a month, now says he's back in the race after a meeting with Trump at the White House www.facebook.com/blake.fiecht...

NEW: Believe it or not, it’s that time of year: the Wisconsin Supreme Court election is next month. Liberals have a huge opportunity: if they win, they can lock down the majority of this court thru 2030. That means they’d have it in the next presidential race, a big democracy guardrail. Share:

Provisional ballots have now increased Sheriff Sam Page's lead on NC Senate President Phil Berger from 2 votes to 23 votes. Half a dozen later-arriving military/overseas ballots remain to be counted, though, and a recount is certain.

NEW: Rep. Darrell Issa is expected to announce his retirement ahead of California's filing deadline today, two sources familiar w/ the matter tell @axios.com Another R just filed to run for his seat and he changed his website to display his PACs logo. www.axios.com/2026/03/06/d...

With a sudden surge of open House sets on the GOP side, we're once again in record territory. Democrats have slowed the pace recently.

Former Hawaii Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who narrowly lost a memorable 2014 Senate primary against Brian Schatz, has died.

House retirements, especially on the GOP side, have been a bit of a firehose lately! Keep tabs on every open seat with our bookmark-worthy tracker:

Also in today's newsletter: • What will happen to Markwayne Mullin's Senate seat in Oklahoma now that he's been tapped to replace Noem • Looking back at Tony Gonzales career following his decision late last night to quit his reelection campaign • The already-crazy ad spending in #GAGov And more!

Utah Rep. Celeste Maloy has never had an easy primary during her short career, but she finally got some good news on Wednesday. Any celebrations were very brief, though. We explain the tumultuous few days the Utah congresswoman just experienced.

Our Founder @markpoloncarz.bsky.social joined @the-downballot.com podcast to discuss our effort to elect democrats at the county level, including winning key races like county executive or election officials. Listen in to find out what we are doing and the impact it will have.

Rep. Tony Gonzales R-TX will not seek reelection

Wrote about the past few times US Senators were pulled into party primary runoff elections: news.bgov.com/bloomberg-go...

Oh wow. North Carolina Republican Bob Rucho—whose name is on the caption of the infamous 2019 SCOTUS case that greenlighted partisan gerrymandering, Rucho v. Common Cause—has resigned from the state Board of Elections after violating a ban on board members donating to political candidates.

"yeah I rigged my race, fuck you" is a fascinating message to go with

The effectively treats public office as a property to be inherited or transferred. Hope it becomes enough of an issue to make the race competitive.

Yesterday, I joined David Nir and David Beard of @the-downballot.com podcast to discuss the important of county races and how @boostingleaders.bsky.social will help elect great new leaders nationwide. Listen to the podcast here:

Just last fall, when Dem Rep. Chuy Garcia engineered something similar in Illinois, the House formally voted to rebuke him. So, will the Senate do the same to Daines? If anything, his offense is worse. Garcia schemed over one of 435 House seats. Daines did this for one of just 100 Senate seats.

*County* offices are very powerful but get almost no attention. On The Downballot podcast this week, we aim to remedy that by talking to Erie County Executive @markpoloncarz.bsky.social, whose new group, @boostingleaders.bsky.social, is helping elect Dems to these posts nationwide. Listen here! →

Several Democratic states are moving to bar federal immigration agents from being near polling places and other election sites, Jonathan Shorman reports. https://stateline.org/2026/03/05/blue-states-push-to-ban-ice-at-the-polls-amid-federal-voter-intimidation-fears/

Former Utah state Rep. Phil Lyman, a far-right Republican who took 14% of the vote as a write-in candidate for governor after losing the primary, is challenging Rep. Celeste Maloy for renomination. Maloy, who barely won her last primary before redistricting, is running for the new 3rd District.

Former Sen. Jon Tester argued in January that Montana Democrats need to consolidate behind Bodnar's independent candidacy rather than field their own Senate nominee in this red state. But five candidates are running to seek the Democratic nod.

A truly crazy day in Montana politics began with former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar announcing he'll run as an independent and ended with Republican Sen. Steve Daines suddenly taking his name off the ballot so his chosen replacement could run with minimal primary opposition.

*Quite* the piece from NOTUS about GOP angst with NRSC chair Tim Scott and his top aide! www.notus.org/2026-electio...

I don't have a problem with Tim. But I do think it is deleterious that so many smart people spend so much time on X, which has essentially become an algorithmically and AI-optimized far-right MAGA message testing and propaganda machine. People assume X posts represent the masses, but they don't!

NEW: Clemency for Tina Peters would be unprecedented, based on my analysis of Gov Polis' 25 commutations. Peters hasn't shown remorse, taken accountability, or sought to restore harm. No Polis commutation was for a harsh sentence alone and Peters' would be the shortest by 30+ yrs

We've seen House members end their reelection campaigns at just the right moment to ensure their preferred successor faces no serious opposition. Florida R Bill Posey did it in 2024, while Illinois D Chuy Garcia did it in November. But it's something else to see it at the Senate level.

Multiple reporters are saying that Montana Sen. Steve Daines will NOT seek reelection. The state's candidate filing deadline was *tonight*, and it's already passed. Not clear whether the GOP has a serious alternative in the race. x.com/JSAmbarian/s...

"I made a mistake. I had a lapse in judgment." Rep. Tony Gonzales R-TX admits he had an affair with a female staffer who died after lighting herself on fire. Full interview at www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP9n...

GOP Rep. Burgess Owens has confirmed he's retiring.

"The Republican State Leadership Committee, which works to elect down-ballot Republicans, did not immediately respond to a request for comment."

Excellent piece from @allansmith.bsky.social on special election flips in Trump 2.0, which makes great use of data from The Downballot!

We're still waiting on calls in a number of close primaries from last night. Keep tabs on all of these races on a single page with our handy cheat-sheet. We'll also be using this throughout primary season, so worth a bookmark!

Trump will reportedly endorse John Cornyn in #TXSen GOP runoff against Ken Paxton, per @theatlantic.com. Election is May 26.

Sources say Utah Congressman Burgess Owens will likely retire rather than seek a 4th term. That move reshuffles Utah's GOP congressional board. Utah's new map could turn into an incumbent knife fight...and who runs in Salt Lake County's new D+12 district? Story ➡️ utahpolitics.news/owens-bows-o...

Today's a great day to remember Dan Crenshaw's super weird action film ad from 2020. www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/...