The TX dissent is so unhinged it's making me queasy. It's also wickedly antisemitic, mentioning "Soros" no fewer than 17 times, including gems like: "Plaintiffs’ top expert Matt Barreto is a Soros operative. His CV confirms it. He expects to receive $2.5 million in his Soros piggybank."

> Asked about the inconsistencies, Osse acknowledged he has misspoken in the past about voting in the 2016 election. “I was a strong supporter of Bernie and thought I voted for him"

exciting as the potential overturning of this awful map is, it's worth noting that the 2021 map is *still* a gerrymander, just a less egregious one

New Dem candidate launches campaign for TX land commissioner: Marine vet Jose Loya, a union leader & oil refinery worker. This is a statewide post responsible for managing public lands & also helps fund schools via land sale royalties. Incumbent is Republican Dawn Buckingham, first elected in 2022.

Also in our new Digest: • GOP rising star launches bid to lead Connecticut, and she's already linking herself to Trump • Scandal-plagued Florida congressman gets a GOP primary challenger • National Republicans ramp up expensive rescue campaign ahead of special election for dark red Tennessee seat

Republicans got some sudden and unexpected bad news Tuesday when a three-judge federal court blocked Texas from using its new GOP-drawn congressional districts. Our new Digest examines why a Trump appointee made this momentous ruling and what it does—and doesn't—mean for the redistricting wars.

LOL this quote from the ruling: "It’s challenging to unpack the DOJ Letter because it contains so many factual, legal, and typographical errors."

This is funny. Gov. Greg Abbott delayed in scheduling the #TX18 special—which is taking place under the old lines—and almost certainly did so to keep a Dem seat vacant. The court cites that still-ongoing special as proof that reverting to the old lines would not be disruptive. Oops!

To answer the the most common questions: • The case was heard under a provision of law used in many redistricting cases, where a three-judge district court (incl. one appeals court judge) hears it, then any appeal goes directly to SCOTUS • No, this would not directly affect California’s changes:

In response to the TX ruling, Dem Rep. Lloyd Doggett says that "I have a renewed opportunity to continue serving the only town I have ever called home." Doggett had announced his retirement rather than face an incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary against Greg Casar.

Where things stand right now in states that have drawn new maps: • TX: Blocked by court (+5 R max) • MO: Likely to be blocked by referendum (+1 R) • NC: +1 R at most, could be zero • OH: Up to +2 R, could be zero • CA: Likely +5 Dem • UT: +1 Dem Other new maps could also emerge.

Whoa: A federal court just barred Texas from using its new congressional map, drawn by the GOP to target Dems. "Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map." Court says the old map must be used in 2026. Appeals are certain. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

#BREAKING: The redistricting map submitted by D.D., a teenage resident of Alabama, to the Special Master has been adopted by the federal court. The map has been ordered for use in Alabama's state Senate elections beginning in 2026. www.courtlistener.com/d…

the down ballot 🤝 strength in numbers running the same survey experiments at the same time

NEW: Washington may have folded to Trump, but there is one powerful, underused tool that could stop him: collective state action. By pooling resources, harmonizing policies and coordinating responses, states can help build a future worth fighting for, @gabygoldstein.bsky.social writes.

This split-sample test confirms what a poll from The Downballot/YouGov Blue found last week: The Dems' best path forward is to make 2026 a referendum on the GOP.

Also in our new Digest: • Kansas governor makes endorsement in race to succeed her • Former top NASA official running to take on one of the most scandal-ridden Republicans in Congress • Two of New Jersey's most prominent Democrats back rival candidates in upcoming special election

Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson, who is the chief obstacle to passing a new congressional map, faces a Democratic primary foe angry Ferguson won't "stand up and protect this home and protect my neighbors."

Author Beth Macy, who wrote nonfiction bestseller "Dopesick" that became a miniseries, will seek the Democratic nomination to oppose GOP Rep. Ben Cline. Virginia's 6th District is safely red, but it may not be much longer if Democrats pass a new map. www.the-downballot.com/i/179197084/va

US House Special Elections, 1957-present: t.co/UxriVmsWI2 Updated to include just-announced Jan. 31, 2026 runoff in Texas's 18th Congressional District, vacant since Sylvester Turner (D) died in March #TX18

Dem state Sen. Cheryl Kagan tells @marylandmatters.org that she wants Maryland to pass a new congressional map but says it could be a "risky distraction" marylandmatters.org/2025/11/16/w...

In addition to the criminal allegations, Brockman was notorious for siding with Republicans despite representing a blue district. This change will go along way toward boosting party unity among Democrats in the NC House.

MD Senate President Bill Ferguson, who has blocked mid-decade redistricting, just earned a challenge in next year's Democratic primary from Army veteran Bobby LaPin, a charter boat operator best known in Baltimore as the "Sail Local Guy." LaPin says he's specifically motivated by redistricting.

Also in our new Digest: • The GOP's gerrymandering push falls apart in Indiana • California congressman eyes late entry into packed governor race • Trump offers to back "the right person" against ex-ally Marjorie Taylor Greene

Republicans have launched a rescue mission two weeks ahead of the special election for a U.S. House seat Trump carried by 22 points.

Read about this race before someone tells you that "nobody" is paying attention to it!

Indiana Senate Pro Tem Rod Bray says chamber will not reconvene in December because there aren't enough votes for congressional redistricting. Donald Trump and his allies have tried HARD to pressure Bray and other senators to fall in line.

Republicans will keep their firm control over the Georgia State House no matter how this race turns out, but a win for Democrat Eric Gisler would give his party another sign that they have momentum heading into next year's crucial races for Senate, governor, and other major posts.

Georgia Democrats have a chance on Dec. 9 to flip a legislative seat that backed Donald Trump by 13 points—but that Democrats won by even more last month in two statewide races.

From @puck.news: "In any case, Schumer’s job is probably safe for what is expected to be his final two-ish years in office. (He hasn’t announced whether he’s retiring or running when his term is up in 2028, but Senate Democrats have no expectation he’ll run again.)"

Confirmed: Katie Wilson will be mayor of Seattle, ousting the incumbent from his left. And Erika Evans will be the new city attorney, ousting the GOP city attorney after promising to take the office in a more progressive direction. What do progressives' win mean for law enforcement? NEW IN BOLTS:

Notable stat from @thedlcc.bsky.social: Come January, there will be more women in the VA House Democratic caucus—37 in total—than there are members of the Republican caucus, period—just 34.

By popular demand, here it is broken out by court-ordered and non-court-ordered redraws.

For quite some time, some awful person or group has been trying to sabotage OurCampaigns through "distributed denial-of-service" attacks. It's an essential resource for anyone who follows or covers elections. www.ourcampaigns.com

Really fascinating conversation with @cgaldieri.bsky.social about New Hampshire - great in-depth analysis of why NH "sends Democrats to DC and Republicans to Concord." It is, unfortunately, prefaced by some pollster running his mouth about survey experiments.

This was a fun opportunity to get granular about #NHPolitics!

We've got a jam-packed podcast this week! First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue. Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary. Listen here!

State Sen. Kathleen Riebe said during her 2023 campaign for dark red seat: "Coming to a very rational decision and having very moderate ideas, I think that is what serves us best." She's now denouncing Republicans as well as Democrats who she says haven’t gone far enough to stand up to them.

For decades, any Utah Democrat who wanted to go to Congress had to campaign as a moderate or conservative. Now that the state has a solidly blue congressional seat, though, running as a progressive is suddenly an effective strategy.

Progressive organizer Katie Wilson has unseated Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell, a fellow Democrat, the Seattle Times projects.

This is awesome. Truly one of us.

A reminder about the Epstein discharge petition: If it gets 218 signatures in the House, that will force a vote on *legislation* mandating the release of the files. That legislation is an ordinary bill, which means the Senate would have to pass it and Trump would have to sign it to take effect.

> Gov. Wes Moore had a five letter response to a scathing editorial dressing him down for his pursuit of congressional redistricting in Maryland and, well, IYKYK. “I can respond to the Washington Post with five letters: IDGAF," Moore told NBC’s “Meet the Press NOW" host Kelly O’Donnell on Tuesday.

Also in our new Digest: • Democratic legislator launches bid for governor to Alaska, and he's not committing to deferring to Mary Peltola. • Holda Solis may not be on a glide path back to Congress after all. • Elaine Luria launches comeback campaign for swingy Virginia House seat.

Utah Democrats are getting something they haven't had in a very, very, very long time: a safely Democratic U.S. House seat to run for.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria launches rematch campaign against Rep. Jen Kiggans, the Republican who narrowly unseated her in 2022. Virginia's 2nd District is one of the swingiest House seats in the nation, but Dems can change that if they can pass new map. www.the-downballot.com/i/178643409/va

Pico Rivera Councilmember Monica Sanchez will oppose Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis, a fellow California Democrat who is looking to return to Congress after an 18-year absence, in the new and open 38th District. Sanchez has the support of Reps. Linda Sanchez (no relation) and Norma Torres

With Utah's new congressional map, that's now the sixth state with new districts for 2026—following CA, MO, NC, OH & TX. And it's not over yet.

Fascinating poll from @the-downballot.com! And I've gotta say, The Downballot has a best-in-class #Substack. Definitely worth a subscription, or at least a #BlueSky follow! They cover all elections, from Chuck Schumer primary challenges to Katie Wilson for Seattle mayor. They'll keep you informed!

The inspiration for this polling experiment came from The Downballot's Discord community—and @joshtpm.bsky.social, who recently wondered why the generic congressional ballot is relatively close even as Trump's popularity keeps nosediving. The data yields a very interesting possible explanation!