Kean hasn't voted in Congress in almost two months, but per NOTUS, he "personally certified the disclosure" of one of his recent stock trades, "affixing his digital signature to the document on April 13."

MS Gov. Tate Reeves calls special session of the legislature for three weeks after SCOTUS issues Callais ruling (whenever that might be) for GOP to redraw the state Supreme Court map. Not clear if other maps might be on the agenda, but MS already held its primaries this year. x.com/tatereeves/s...

House Democrats are charging deep into some *very* red turf as they announce their first round of fall ad reservations for 2026, while Republicans are mostly playing defense. We take a close look at the new bookings from HMP & CLF in today's newsletter -->

The NYT waits until the 20th paragraph to credit the @njglobe.bsky.social, which first broke this story last month and re-upped it last week. Politico didn't credit them at all. (We credited them in our first sentence.)

John Seymour, the last Republican to represent California in the U.S. Senate, died last week at 88. Pete Wilson, who was serving as senator when he was elected governor in 1990, appointed Seymour to succeed him. Dianne Feinstein went on to decisively unseat Seymour in 1992 special election.

Here's the definitive answer to the debate over "who started it": Republicans. Before Trump pushed TX to gerrymander last year, the GOP had drawn 42% of all districts, versus just 14% for Dems (the rest were by neutral parties). The maps below from @stephenwolf.bsky.social make this explicit.

Scott died a month after candidate filing closed, so it's too late for anyone else to run to represent Georgia's 13th District in the next Congress. It remains to be seen when GOP Gov. Brian Kemp will schedule a special election for the remaining months of David Scott's term.

Georgia Rep. David Scott's death at the age of 80 came following years of scrutiny about his physical and mental health. Six fellow Democrats were challenging Scott in a race where the issue of generational change was at the forefront, and one of them will now succeed him in the next Congress.

Rep. David Scott, a Democrat of Georgia, has died: www.ajc.com/politics/202... Scott, who is 80, faced a lot of pushback for choosing to run for reelection this year, amid reports he'd skipped voting in many recent cycles (inc. 2024 presidential race) & faced multiple primary challengers in May

Here's the definitive answer to the debate over "who started it": Republicans. Before Trump pushed TX to gerrymander last year, the GOP had drawn 42% of all districts, versus just 14% for Dems (the rest were by neutral parties). The maps below from @stephenwolf.bsky.social make this explicit.

Del. Elizabeth Guzman would be the first Hispanic person to represent Virginia in Congress. She first has to get past an expensive Democratic primary in the new 7th District, where no Democratic incumbent is running.

Now that Virginia's new congressional map has been approved, numerous Democrats across the state have new districts to run for. Many like former Rep. Tom Perriello have been campaigning for months, while Del. Elizabeth Guzman announced Wednesday morning that she'd seek another seat.

So much for that.

Seven states have now drawn new congressional maps this cycle. That’s tied for the most in a non-Census cycle in over 50 years.

When Trump began pressuring Texas and other red states to re-gerrymander their maps, the immediate consensus was that Democratic-led states could do little or nothing to counter it. But it turned out that Democrats were anything but helpless.

The GOP drew 3 times more congressional seats than Dems did for 2024—but that disparity would be far smaller for 2026 with new Dem maps in CA & VA. This cartogram shows the partisan intent behind each state’s map, though it doesn't measure the effect of more extreme new GOP maps in MO, NC, OH, & TX

Trump sparked a mid-decade redistricting frenzy after urging Republicans to re-gerrymander congressional maps nationwide—but they didn't expect Dems to respond. The GOP targeted 9 Dems in 4 states—in response, Dems targeted 9 Reps in 2 states. A court also replaced Utah's GOP map with a fairer map

VA Dems’ new map would make 4 GOP seats bluer: 1—Rob Wittman: Trump+5 to Harris+8.5 2—Jen Kiggans: Trump+0 to Harris+5 5—John McGuire: Trump+12 to Harris+8.5 6—Ben Cline: Trump+24 to Harris+3 Dems already could flip 1 & 2 on the current map, but their odds would greatly improve with the new map

Breaking (🧵): Virginia has PASSED a referendum that would let Dems redraw the congressional map for 2026 in response to new GOP gerrymanders in other states (pending VA Supreme Court review). It targets 4 Rs to elect a 10-1 Dem majority. Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...

The Virginia redistricting referendum looks likely to prevail by a modest margin. "No" leads by 4 points with what's counted so far, but major blue areas are reporting more slowly. The "yes" side is exceeding its benchmarks across the state according to the NYT map www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Why the current "no" lead in Virginia's redistricting referendum is likely a mirage.

New: Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is resigning from Congress. www.notus.org/congress/she...

The NY Conservative Party, which almost always backs the GOP nominee in general elections, reportedly plans to keep Smullen as its standard-bearer even if he loses the GOP primary. The head of the Conservative Party is currently suing Constantino for defamation. www.dailygazette.com/ade/news/loc...

Donald Trump endorses wealthy sticker magnet Anthony Constantino in GOP primary for Elise Stefanik's seat. Constantino is NOT popular with local GOP leaders, who have consolidated behind Assemblyman Robert Smullen in primary. #NY21

SurveyUSA poll shows Democrats are in danger of a lockout in #CA48, where GOP Rep. Darrell Issa decided to retire after his seat got a lot more competitive. www.surveyusa.com/client/PollR...

I didn't know Daniel Bice, but I cited his work a LOT. Wisconsin elections won't be the same without him.

Virginia votes TODAY on a referendum that would enable Democrats to redraw the congressional map for 2026 in response to new Republican gerrymanders in other states. The map targets 4 of 5 Republicans & aims to elect a 10-1 Dem majority. Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...

Plenty of Republicans are interested in leading this conservative state, including none other than Rep. Thomas Massie. Massie said this month that if he wins his May 19 primary against a Trump-backed rival, he “would consider” running for governor.

The 2027 race for governor of Kentucky is on: Democratic Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman has launched her campaign to succeed termed-out incumbent Andy Beshear, her running mate during the last two gubernatorial campaigns.

A must-read guide from @taniel.bsky.social about this year's state Supreme Court elections from coast to coast.

Democrats still have a tough job flipping the Senate, but Alex Vindman's strong opening fundraising quarter in Florida and Mary Peltola's big inaugural quarter in Alaska show how these strong recruits are putting states on the board that would otherwise be locked down for the GOP.

👀 👀 www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...

A lot of people are worried about midterm disruptions, but what's a serious fear and what's just dooming? We asked 37 experts. www.votebeat.org/national/202...

This looks like fun! From @gelliottmorris.com projects.gelliottmorris.com/senate-2026/

Here's your must-review data dump for the weekend via @the-downballot.com: A full list of all Q1 Senate and House fundraising reports, from money raised to money spent to cash-on-hand. Dive in! www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...

Republicans have decided to delude themselves about what the special elections are saying. From this @politico.com piece (which cites our data!): www.politico.com/news/2026/04... We do the opposite of cherry-picking. We aggregate *all* special elections, for the most complete picture.

“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money, and I can't remember what the second one is." -Sen. Mark Hanna

For your weekend nerding pleasure: We've just published our complete charts of first-quarter fundraising data for *more than 900* candidates for the Senate and House. Some absolutely wild numbers in here. Dive on in!

Quite a quote on #NJ11 from the @newjerseyglobe.bsky.social: “Never again will I vote Republican,” one voter said. “And neither did my parents, and they were Republicans all their lives.” newjerseyglobe.com/congress/mej...

We just discussed this topic on The Downballot podcast this week! www.the-downballot.com/p/good-ridda...

Weekly polling roundup: Outside of presidential approval ratings, how do Americans feel about Trump? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/soft-measu...

A super-cool announcement: Next week on 4/23, @gelliottmorris.com & @davidnir.com will be recording the Strength In Numbers podcast *live and in-person* at the America Votes Summit in Washington, DC! We're releasing exclusive polling and doing an extended Q&A. Admission is free! Just sign up here:

Trump has expressed his displeasure with James for giving up his competitive House seat to run for governor, and local Republicans are even more grumpy. One said of James' refusal to attend a debate: "[H]e’s abandoning that seat, and he’s not even showing up to a debate to explain why."

Rep. John James spent a year as the undisputed frontrunner in the GOP primary for governor of Michigan. Heavy spending by a wealthy opponent, James' habit of pissing off local GOP leaders, and even TMZ, have changed that.

From @rubashkin.bsky.social, who always has his eye on heavily Latino precincts on special election nights x.com/JacobRubashk...

Given Mejia's reputation as an outspoken progressive, it's notable that she'd on track to outperform the moderate Sherrill.

We're having a debate on The Downballot Discord server right now: Which members of Congress would do the best on Jeopardy!?

Democrat Analilia Mejia easily wins the #NJ11 special election to succeed Gov. Mike Sherrill. We'll update our Big Board as soon as we have final results, though given how slow the counting was during the primary, we may not have those tonight.

NYT results gift link for tonight's #NJ11 special election, courtesy a member of The Downballot's Discord server community. Yes, there's a Thursday election!

A super-cool announcement: Next week on 4/23, @gelliottmorris.com & @davidnir.com will be recording the Strength In Numbers podcast *live and in-person* at the America Votes Summit in Washington, DC! We're releasing exclusive polling and doing an extended Q&A. Admission is free! Just sign up here: