Ohio's 15th District was one of the nation’s most competitive congressional districts during the first decade of the 21st century, but that changed after the GOP passed a new gerrymander following the 2010 census. Democrats, however, are now making a serious play to flip it.

Republican Rep. Mike Carey seemed to be in for another easy general election in Ohio until last week, when one of the most influential Democratic super PACs booked $1.8 million to flip his 15th District. Democrats will choose their nominee next Tuesday in seat Trump would have won 55-45.

The GOP doesn’t have a midterm turnout problem. It has a Trump problem. “Republicans just need to get their voters off the sidelines” is a much more comforting story than “voters saw the Trump presidency and decided they don't want it." But the data is clear. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-28...

In this chart, the distribution of the new plan's Biden margins is compared to the current plan. The proposed map counts on Dems doing slightly worse than Biden to fully succeed. However, if I'm an R incumbent, I'm casting a *very* nervous eye at recent results in the FL-01 and FL-06 specials...

NEW: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis proposed a new congressional gerrymander to install a 24-4 GOP majority and replace the current 20-8 GOP map. Trump easily won 24 seats in 2024—though Biden won 2 of those & several were much bluer in 2020. Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/3049165...

Former #MISen Donald Riegle, who left the GOP and became a Democrat in 1973 after breaking with Nixon over Vietnam and the "Southern Strategy," has died at 88

Democrats need to flip just two Senate seats and five Assembly seats to win full control of Wisconsin’s government. The retirements of Republican legislative leaders and several members in key swing districts speaks volumes about their chances of retaining power now that their gerrymanders are gone

Notably, @douglassoule.bsky.social reports that DeSantis' new map was published by Fox News before he sent it to the legislature. x.com/DouglasSoule...

Here’s the Florida GOP’s proposed 24-4 congressional gerrymander (left) compared to their current 20-8 gerrymander (via Taniel’s second post). I’ll create more a detailed graphic with election data once I have it

Some welcome news for Wisconsin Democrats as they try to take control of the state Assembly for first time since 2010 GOP wave. Retiring GOP state Rep. Dean Kaufert won reelection in the 53rd Assembly District 50.5 to 49.4 as Kamala Harris was carrying it 51-47.

Kean hasn't voted in Congress in almost two months, but per NOTUS, he "personally certified the disclosure" of one of his recent stock trades, "affixing his digital signature to the document on April 13."

MS Gov. Tate Reeves calls special session of the legislature for three weeks after SCOTUS issues Callais ruling (whenever that might be) for GOP to redraw the state Supreme Court map. Not clear if other maps might be on the agenda, but MS already held its primaries this year. x.com/tatereeves/s...

House Democrats are charging deep into some *very* red turf as they announce their first round of fall ad reservations for 2026, while Republicans are mostly playing defense. We take a close look at the new bookings from HMP & CLF in today's newsletter -->

The NYT waits until the 20th paragraph to credit the @njglobe.bsky.social, which first broke this story last month and re-upped it last week. Politico didn't credit them at all. (We credited them in our first sentence.)

John Seymour, the last Republican to represent California in the U.S. Senate, died last week at 88. Pete Wilson, who was serving as senator when he was elected governor in 1990, appointed Seymour to succeed him. Dianne Feinstein went on to decisively unseat Seymour in 1992 special election.

Here's the definitive answer to the debate over "who started it": Republicans. Before Trump pushed TX to gerrymander last year, the GOP had drawn 42% of all districts, versus just 14% for Dems (the rest were by neutral parties). The maps below from @stephenwolf.bsky.social make this explicit.

Scott died a month after candidate filing closed, so it's too late for anyone else to run to represent Georgia's 13th District in the next Congress. It remains to be seen when GOP Gov. Brian Kemp will schedule a special election for the remaining months of David Scott's term.

Georgia Rep. David Scott's death at the age of 80 came following years of scrutiny about his physical and mental health. Six fellow Democrats were challenging Scott in a race where the issue of generational change was at the forefront, and one of them will now succeed him in the next Congress.

Rep. David Scott, a Democrat of Georgia, has died: www.ajc.com/politics/202... Scott, who is 80, faced a lot of pushback for choosing to run for reelection this year, amid reports he'd skipped voting in many recent cycles (inc. 2024 presidential race) & faced multiple primary challengers in May

Here's the definitive answer to the debate over "who started it": Republicans. Before Trump pushed TX to gerrymander last year, the GOP had drawn 42% of all districts, versus just 14% for Dems (the rest were by neutral parties). The maps below from @stephenwolf.bsky.social make this explicit.

Del. Elizabeth Guzman would be the first Hispanic person to represent Virginia in Congress. She first has to get past an expensive Democratic primary in the new 7th District, where no Democratic incumbent is running.

Now that Virginia's new congressional map has been approved, numerous Democrats across the state have new districts to run for. Many like former Rep. Tom Perriello have been campaigning for months, while Del. Elizabeth Guzman announced Wednesday morning that she'd seek another seat.

So much for that.

Seven states have now drawn new congressional maps this cycle. That’s tied for the most in a non-Census cycle in over 50 years.

When Trump began pressuring Texas and other red states to re-gerrymander their maps, the immediate consensus was that Democratic-led states could do little or nothing to counter it. But it turned out that Democrats were anything but helpless.

The GOP drew 3 times more congressional seats than Dems did for 2024—but that disparity would be far smaller for 2026 with new Dem maps in CA & VA. This cartogram shows the partisan intent behind each state’s map, though it doesn't measure the effect of more extreme new GOP maps in MO, NC, OH, & TX

Trump sparked a mid-decade redistricting frenzy after urging Republicans to re-gerrymander congressional maps nationwide—but they didn't expect Dems to respond. The GOP targeted 9 Dems in 4 states—in response, Dems targeted 9 Reps in 2 states. A court also replaced Utah's GOP map with a fairer map

VA Dems’ new map would make 4 GOP seats bluer: 1—Rob Wittman: Trump+5 to Harris+8.5 2—Jen Kiggans: Trump+0 to Harris+5 5—John McGuire: Trump+12 to Harris+8.5 6—Ben Cline: Trump+24 to Harris+3 Dems already could flip 1 & 2 on the current map, but their odds would greatly improve with the new map

Breaking (🧵): Virginia has PASSED a referendum that would let Dems redraw the congressional map for 2026 in response to new GOP gerrymanders in other states (pending VA Supreme Court review). It targets 4 Rs to elect a 10-1 Dem majority. Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...

The Virginia redistricting referendum looks likely to prevail by a modest margin. "No" leads by 4 points with what's counted so far, but major blue areas are reporting more slowly. The "yes" side is exceeding its benchmarks across the state according to the NYT map www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Why the current "no" lead in Virginia's redistricting referendum is likely a mirage.

New: Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is resigning from Congress. www.notus.org/congress/she...

The NY Conservative Party, which almost always backs the GOP nominee in general elections, reportedly plans to keep Smullen as its standard-bearer even if he loses the GOP primary. The head of the Conservative Party is currently suing Constantino for defamation. www.dailygazette.com/ade/news/loc...

Donald Trump endorses wealthy sticker magnet Anthony Constantino in GOP primary for Elise Stefanik's seat. Constantino is NOT popular with local GOP leaders, who have consolidated behind Assemblyman Robert Smullen in primary. #NY21

SurveyUSA poll shows Democrats are in danger of a lockout in #CA48, where GOP Rep. Darrell Issa decided to retire after his seat got a lot more competitive. www.surveyusa.com/client/PollR...

I didn't know Daniel Bice, but I cited his work a LOT. Wisconsin elections won't be the same without him.

Virginia votes TODAY on a referendum that would enable Democrats to redraw the congressional map for 2026 in response to new Republican gerrymanders in other states. The map targets 4 of 5 Republicans & aims to elect a 10-1 Dem majority. Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...

Plenty of Republicans are interested in leading this conservative state, including none other than Rep. Thomas Massie. Massie said this month that if he wins his May 19 primary against a Trump-backed rival, he “would consider” running for governor.

The 2027 race for governor of Kentucky is on: Democratic Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman has launched her campaign to succeed termed-out incumbent Andy Beshear, her running mate during the last two gubernatorial campaigns.

A must-read guide from @taniel.bsky.social about this year's state Supreme Court elections from coast to coast.

Democrats still have a tough job flipping the Senate, but Alex Vindman's strong opening fundraising quarter in Florida and Mary Peltola's big inaugural quarter in Alaska show how these strong recruits are putting states on the board that would otherwise be locked down for the GOP.

👀 👀 www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...

A lot of people are worried about midterm disruptions, but what's a serious fear and what's just dooming? We asked 37 experts. www.votebeat.org/national/202...

This looks like fun! From @gelliottmorris.com projects.gelliottmorris.com/senate-2026/

Here's your must-review data dump for the weekend via @the-downballot.com: A full list of all Q1 Senate and House fundraising reports, from money raised to money spent to cash-on-hand. Dive in! www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...

Republicans have decided to delude themselves about what the special elections are saying. From this @politico.com piece (which cites our data!): www.politico.com/news/2026/04... We do the opposite of cherry-picking. We aggregate *all* special elections, for the most complete picture.

“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money, and I can't remember what the second one is." -Sen. Mark Hanna

For your weekend nerding pleasure: We've just published our complete charts of first-quarter fundraising data for *more than 900* candidates for the Senate and House. Some absolutely wild numbers in here. Dive on in!

Quite a quote on #NJ11 from the @newjerseyglobe.bsky.social: “Never again will I vote Republican,” one voter said. “And neither did my parents, and they were Republicans all their lives.” newjerseyglobe.com/congress/mej...

We just discussed this topic on The Downballot podcast this week! www.the-downballot.com/p/good-ridda...