"If more and more polls continue to look like the Washington Post poll, then that really does create pressure on Republicans. And I was heartened by Jeffries expanding the message." My full discussion w/ @davidnir.com about how Democrats are winning the shutdown: www.publicnotice.co/p/democrats-...

Excellent overview

Update: Mike Johnson has now extended the House recess through Oct. 13. If he sticks to his refusal to seat Democrat Adelita Grijalva, that means she'll go at least three weeks between winning her special election and getting sworn in. Other special election winners this year waited just one day.

There's been a lot of confusion about which states could redraw their House maps before the midterms, so we've put together a definitive guide to every state that could actually do so—16 in all. We explain the likelihood of new maps, probable targeted districts, and any obstacles to passage.

NEW: November general elections are around the corner, so it’s time to launch my cheat sheet of what’s on the ballot this fall! I guide you thru the *185* elections I'm watching, & why: lawmakers, governors, judges, DAs, mayors, school boards, & dozens of ballot measures. Explore, share, save:

Former Rep. Cori Bush launches rematch campaign against incumbent Wesley Bell, who defeated her in an expensive and closely watched 2024 Democratic primary. Missouri's 1st District in the St. Louis area is safely blue and was untouched by GOP's new gerrymander.

#IASEN Josh Turek: $1 million raised (in seven weeks). Turek is competing in a busy Democratic primary for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat

#PA10: Janelle Stelson (D): $1.2 million raised, "nearly" $1 million cash on hand. Stelson is seeking a rematch against far-right Rep. Scott Perry.

Iowa Auditor and candidate for governor Rob Sand @robsandia.bsky.social joins us on this week's podcast! Sand tells us about the massive lottery scandal he busted, how he won by just 3,000 votes in 2022, and his plan to win the governorship next year. www.the-downballot.com/p/how-rob-sa...

Update: Rutinel's team tells us he raised $475,00 in the fundraising quarter that just ended, not $400,000. #CO08

#MA08: Patrick Roath (D): $142,000 raised. Roath is challenging Rep. Stephen Lynch in next year's Democratic primary

#NY17 Cait Conley (D): $500,000 raised, $900,000 cash on hand. Conley is one of several Democrats challenging GOP Rep. Mike Lawler.

House Republicans are refusing to seat Dem Adelita Grijalva, who won a special election more than a week ago. She's the last signature needed to force a vote on the Epstein files. The soonest the GOP will act is Oct. 7. In three prior specials this year, the winners were all sworn in a day later.

Rep. David Schweikert has twice won tough Republican primaries by making insinuations about his opponent's sexual orientation. In 2012 he sent out mailers saying a fellow congressman "goes both ways." In 2022 he got sued for materials saying primary foe "isn’t being straight with you."

Trump has pressured House members in swing seats to put off their dreams of running statewide and seek reelection instead. How will he feel about this Arizona congressman deciding to leave to run for governor?

He's back: Republican Madison Cawthorn, who was ejected from Congress by primary voters in North Carolina after a single chaotic term defined by scandal, run-ins with the law, and his insinuation that an unidentified colleague had invited him to an "orgy," is seeking a comeback in Florida.

Democrat Jessica Killin announces she raised $1 million in opening quarter in campaign to flip Colorado's 5th District, a Colorado Springs-based seat that the GOP has held since its creation five decades ago. mailchi.mp/05237340bc41...

#MI07 Bridget Brink (D): $600,000 raised mailchi.mp/bridgetbrink...

#TXSEN Colin Allred (D): $4.1 million raised

#TXSEN James Talarico (D): $6.2 million raised (in three weeks)

#MESen: Graham Platner (D): $3.2 million raised (in six weeks)

Retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam announces he's raised $610,000 in opening quarter in busy Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan's 7th Congressional District. His campaign tells The Downballot none of this was self-funded.

Kansas City has reported its election day votes, and it's probably safe to say that Jackson County voters have recalled County Executive Frank White. He's winning just 25% of the vote in Kansas City with 12K votes tallied. Possible that there are more votes out there, but not enough to shift this.

In tonight’s New Jersey Lt. Gov debate, Jack Ciattarelli’s running mate Jim Gannon said - out loud - that new taxes are on the table for NJ residents…EXCEPT FOR MILLIONAIRES!!! Clip via @umichvoter.bsky.social on X.

At event in DC, Sen. Chris Van Hollen keeps it going with Hakeem Jeffries over not endorsing @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social: if you can’t back the kind of campaign he ran, “don’t ask those young people to show up for other Democrats across the country — that’s the message that will be sent.”

The open Internet is so important for sharing information. Unfortunately, a few bad actors choose to rip off the people who work hard to find that info. But we can collectively block the bad actors and both financially support and elevate the profile of the good actors.

Just as you should not freak out because Emerson showed #NJGov tied the other day, you also should not exult because a poll for Fox News now shows Mikie Sherrill up 8. But yeah, Fox—whose polling plays it straight—has Sherrill up 8.

Update: GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who just a month ago dismissed fears about the Medicaid cuts he voted for as "whining and bedwetting," is running for governor of Arizona.

North Carolina -->

Please block @bluedelaware.bsky.social and stop reading them. The Downballot is a tiny independent site, with just two people on staff. We struggle to make it every day. To rip us off is just incredibly low. If you value *original* journalism, please support us: www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

A bottom-feeding trash site called @bluedelaware.bsky.social was stealing our work all year. We noticed it today and called them on it. They hastily deleted lots of posts, but @archive.org saved some. Sample stolen post: web.archive.org/web/20250627... Ours: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

The confusion is understandable, but this from @thehill.com is not correct. NYC only uses ranked-choice voting in primaries, not in the general election. thehill.com/homenews/cam...

Data from The Downballot shows that Donald Trump carried David Schweikert's House district 51-48 last year. Joe Biden took Arizona's 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, 50-49 in 2020.

Some *BIG* news for two major Arizona races: Republican Rep. David Schweikert will run for governor rather than seek reelection to his swing House seat.

Also in our new Digest: • Prominent Missouri leader/former Royals All-Star second baseman faces recall vote tonight • ESPN host considers running for Alabama's open Senate seat • High-profile progressive member of Georgia legislature launches bid for governor

It's been almost six months since Michigan Rep. John James announced he'd run for governor, and his fellow Republicans are still mad they have to defend his House seat without him. "It stings us to have him leave that seat, there’s no question."

What really wounds me is that the author whose name appears on these posts is "Delaware Dem" aka @jasonkmelrath.bsky.social. He was a member of the community at Daily Kos—the very site where I came up. That someone from our same home would do this to us—and not even apologize—is really gutting.

A bottom-feeding trash site called @bluedelaware.bsky.social was stealing our work all year. We noticed it today and called them on it. They hastily deleted lots of posts, but @archive.org saved some. Sample stolen post: web.archive.org/web/20250627... Ours: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

Kansas Republicans are moving forward with plans to gerrymander Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids' #KS03: The Sunflower State Journal reports that GOP leaders are circulating a petition to call the legislature into a special session. They need 2/3rds in each chamber.

Tired: Donors wasting massive amounts on Kevin McCarthy's "Revenge Tour." Wired: Donors not bothering to contribute to Kevin McCarthy's quest to stop California redistricting. www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Following a recommendation from Missouri AG Catherine Hanaway, SoS Denny Hoskins has rejected petitions from @peoplenotpolsmo.bsky.social seeking to put the GOP's new congressional gerrymander up for a veto referendum. www.sos.mo.gov/elections/pe...

@bluedelaware.bsky.social This post of yours: bluedelaware.com/2025/09/27/t... Is an almost verbatim ripoff of our newsletter: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di... You are engaged in both plagiarism and violation of copyright. Remove your entire post immediately. - @davidnir.com, Publisher

State Rep. Ruwa Romman joins the busy Democratic primary for governor of Georgia.

A group funded by conservative megadonor Jeff Yass is falsely insinuating that the gerrymandered congressional map the court invalidated in 2018—which had been drawn by Republican lawmakers—was actually imposed by the court.

Democrats enjoy a huge spending advantage in this fall's crucial races for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ... but the state's richest man is opening his wallet to help the GOP oust three Democratic justices.

Former state cabinet member Missy Hughes has entered the busy race to succeed retiring Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, a fellow Democrat. Hughes previously was an executive at Organic Valley before Evers picked her to run the state's Economic Development Corporation.

Eric Adams, man of principle! www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/n...

I just don't get this from Klein at all. It so happens that all three of these states have held votes on abortion rights in the last few years, and all revealed pro-choice majorities! KS (2022): 59-41 OH (2023): 57-43 MO (2024): 52-48 How would running anti-abortion candidates *help* Dems?

The Dem-backed National Redistricting Foundation has filed a lawsuit challenging the Missouri GOP's new congressional gerrymander. It appears to be the fourth suit challenging the map.

Ultimately, Jeffries is lavishing praise on someone who *left* the Democratic Party—the party Jeffries belongs to—while refusing to support the person who won his party's nomination.