Turns out Democrats weren't done making gains from 2025! Politico brings us this update from Orange County, NY www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Ordinarily, special elections that take place after redistricting but before the next general election use old district lines—but not always. A summer 2022 special election for Nebraska’s 1st District was held using the state’s new map, a move that did not face a legal challenge.

Ordinarily, special elections that take place after redistricting but before the next general election use old district lines—but not always. A summer 2022 special election for Nebraska’s 1st District was held using the state’s new map, a move that did not face a legal challenge.

California last year passed a new map that transforms the late Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa's safely red district into a seat Kamala Harris would have carried by double digits. But which set of maps will be used in the upcoming special election to replace him?

An automatic recount is required under SC law if the margin between the two candidates is less than 1% of the total vote, which would be 34 votes. Based on where things stand now, that puts us in recount territory, since the Republican leads by 21 votes. Such margins are tough to overcome though.

With nearly all votes* counted, the Republican in this Trump+7 SC House district is leading by just 21 votes. * It's possible there are provisionals left, but hard gap to make up. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Polls are closed in South Carolina, where we're watching for a potential R --> D flip in the state House. Results here: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

CA special election timing rules: Newsom has 14 days to call an election, which must take place 126 to 140 days later. A primary would happen 9 weeks *earlier*. That gives us a range of: ► Primary: March 10 to April 7 ► Runoff: May 12 to June 9 Key: You *can* avoid a runoff by winning a majority.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has set a March 10 special election to fill the seat of Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14).

Heyo! Special elections are back on the menu, starting tonight! One GOP state House seat in South Carolina stands out as potentially flippable for Ds. Background in today's newsletter, though one extra detail: The Dem is best known as "Dr. SOS." www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

Cunningham voted with the GOP to override a Stein veto of a bill that requires local NC law enforcement to work more closely with ICE. This is how she explained her vote:

This would be big: Axios reports former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is "taking concrete steps toward a Senate run" in Alaska and is "expected" to announce a campaign against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan this month.

Newsom should absolutely call the special election under the new lines. It's the map adopted by the people of California, and on top of being democratically defensible, it's the kind of hardball that DeSantis or Abbott would obviously pull in the converse scenario.

California's new map transformed GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa's 1st Congressional District from a safely red bastion into a constituency that Kamala Harris would have carried 54-42. LaMalfa said before his death he'd run to defend his revamped seat.

The Minnesota state House is tied 67-67, while Democrats hold a slender 34-33 edge in the state Senate. It wouldn't take much for Democrats to win enough races to again make the state a “laboratory in pushing progressive policy,” as NBC put it in 2023—or for Republicans to secure total power.

Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is retiring ahead of a major election year where both parties have the chance to win control of the Minnesota governor's office and both chambers of the legislature. Everyone is eagerly waiting to see which Democrat(s) run in his place.

Cunningham voted with the GOP to override a Stein veto of a bill that requires local NC law enforcement to work more closely with ICE. This is how she explained her vote:

everything keeps getting dumber so I may come to regret this question but does the New York Times have any particular reason to believe the Nazi Pillow guy is a "strong" candidate for governor?

Looking tough for Kansas Republicans to gerrymander Davids out of her seat. sunflowerstatejournal.com/hawkins-on-r...

During Tim Walz’s second term, Minnesota Democrats passed numerous democracy reforms, including: • A state Voting Rights Act • Automatic voter registration • Restoring voting rights after prison for tens of thousands of people • The National Popular Vote Compact • Expanded early voting, and more

Five years ago today: the game-changing #GASen runoffs

The final fundraising quarter of 2025 ended on Dec. 31, but it'll be a lot longer than usual before we see complete FEC reports for federal candidates. Normally, disclosures are due on the 15th after the end of each quarter, but the year-end quarterly report isn't required until Jan. 31!

If you've been on a holiday news break and are looking for a thorough recap of everything election-related that has taken place over the last two weeks, you can't do any better than today's edition of @the-downballot.com. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

The start of the new year is also the start of a new fundraising quarter, and candidates are releasing their hauls going into 2026. Hannah Pingree, a Democrat running for governor of Maine, says she raised $850,000 during the second half of 2025.

The end of 2025 and the start of 2026 saw surprise dropouts, a party switch, big developments of key ballot measures, and more!

The Downballot’s Morning Digest is back, and we’re here to get you caught up on all the election news that broke over the holidays!

A true game of electoral musical chairs! Democrat Jessica Swartz dropped her bid for #MI04 to run for a state House seat that's open because the Democrat repping it is running for the state *Senate* seat that's open because the Democrat repping it is running for #MI04 & essentially froze out Swartz!

Fascinating paper by Hood, McKee & Pittman demonstrating that election deniers were less likely to vote in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff election. If fewer GA Republicans believed the big lie, both GA Senate seats might still be in Republican control. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

With last night's giant 26-point overperformance by Iowa Democrat Renee Hardman, we end the year with Dems doing 13.9 points better than the 2024 presidential results across 67 special elections. Complete data, including prez numbers, can be found on our Big Board -->

Some quick thoughts on GOP retirements and what drives them — as always, thanks to @the-downballot.com for their public service on the historical retirement data. Will be keeping that chart updated on a weekly basis thru the beginning of next year to compare cycles/parties since 2006.

The Brooklyn babka has arrived in SoCal! One of my 2025 highlights was winning this yummy babka in the #elections prediction contest put on by @the-downballot.com! #uspoli If you want one in 2026, subscribe, educate yourself about downballot elections and see if you can win: www.the-downballot.com

Ah, the bounty about being correct about the 2025 elections. Thank you @the-downballot.com @davidnir.com, James Lambert, and of course Green’s Bakery!

As much as I love politics, I’m usually not that good at predicting election results. So I was shocked to learn that I’d won @the-downballot.com 2025 Election Prediction contest! My prize: This gorgeous babka from Green’s Bakery in Brooklyn, NY (see next post for their link). What a yummy treat!

Physician Anil Kumar drops Dem primary bid for open (and safely blue) #MI11, a little more than a month after launching. Most notable Dem running is state Sen. Jeremy Moss, who has big-name endorsements from folks like Gretchen Whitmer.

Final result for the SC #HD88 special election last night was an 11-point Dem overperformance. GOP won by ~25, Trump margin was ~35 (there's some rounding). That's roughly in line with the D+13.7 average in all specials this year. One final special for 2025 in a blue district in Iowa on Dec. 30!

#NEW: The ACLU has filed a lawsuit arguing that the act of turning in the Missouri redistricting referendum signatures has officially paused the congressional map. www.kcur.org/politics-e…

The people who showed up to vote for a write-in dem candidate in a Trump+50 special election 2 days before Christmas are democracy's strongest soldiers.

Want to emphasize that this GOP-held seat became vacant for one of the most appalling reasons possible

There's one contested special election tonight, for a Trump+35 House seat in SC. A couple of notes: One, Chuck Hightower is just the second Dem to contest this seat in 30+ years. Two, the only other SC special this year saw a *36-point* D overperformance. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

Elise Stefanik's 2025: How It Started vs How It Ended

"We've seen a steady decline in Trump's approval and his numbers on issues where he's supposedly strong, like immigration. That slow change is what you should expect in US politics rather than big overnight shifts" 2025 recap ep of @davidnir.com & Rupar is live: www.publicnotice.co/p/2025-recap...

North Carolina Dems are running for 50/50 Senate seats & 118/120* House seats. Republicans are running for 45 Senate seats & just 91 House seats. That's impressive for Dems since gerrymandering gave the GOP nearly 60% in both chambers. *(Dem-leaning indies are running for the other 2 House seats)

She gonna do another one of these? (This article was from February)

Elise Stefanik to continue running from office

You might even say Elise Stefanik tripped over herself on the way out the door (photo from Timmy Facciola x.com/TimmyFacciol...)

If you'd like to give a year-end 'thank you' donation to @the-downballot.com, you can do so here at the ActBlue link below. Another alternative: Become a subscriber! secure.actblue.com/donate/thedo...

Today's @the-downballot.com begins with an excellent year-end editorial that looks back on 2025 and reminds us just how consequential the year was...you guessed it...downballot. Also vital: The Downballot's 2025 coverage. We'd have been lost without them. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

NY GOP chair Ed Cox issued this statement 10 days ago. Few have ever aged as poorly as this one. x.com/_rebeccaclew...

After little more than a month in the race, GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik bails on #NYGov bid against Kathy Hochul and says she won't run for reelection. From @benjacobs.bsky.social at @nymag.com.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., says she won’t run for re-election. Opens on a safe red Senate seat in Wyoming.