Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
📤 115049
📥 259
📝 1993
Contributor
@the-downballot.com
. Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
pinned post!
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide. Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000. Data & charts below:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
12 months ago
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Florida Politics now relays that Republicans will convene the state House’s select committee on redistricting on Dec. 4
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about 3 hours ago
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Grudgie the Whale
about 4 hours ago
My god it really is The Lost Cause but for a blowout election defeat
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A solidly Democratic and heavily Black congressional district will go without representation for nearly half of the 2-year term thanks to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) delaying the special election. Abbott just scheduled the runoff for Jan. 31, 2026. Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) died on March 5, 2025
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Governor Abbott Sets Runoff Election For Unexpired Term In Previous 18th Congressional District
https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-sets-runoff-election-for-unexpired-term-in-previous-18th-congressional-district
about 6 hours ago
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The Downballot
about 9 hours ago
MD Senate President Bill Ferguson, who has blocked mid-decade redistricting, just earned a challenge in next year's Democratic primary from Army veteran Bobby LaPin, a charter boat operator best known in Baltimore as the "Sail Local Guy." LaPin says he's specifically motivated by redistricting.
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Baltimore influencer to challenge Sen. Bill Ferguson in primary election
Baltimore social media influencer and small-business owner Bobby LaPin will challenge Senate President Bill Ferguson in the Democratic primary in June.
https://www.thebanner.com/politics-power/state-government/baltimore-influencer-bobby-lapin-bill-ferguson-primary-election-QRSSJUPRTVHEBO2MHKXOIIJRIA/
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A Republican state senator was “swatted” just hours after Trump wrote a social media post threatening him if the senator opposed Trump’s effort to re-gerrymander Indiana’s congressional map. Trump’s supporters routinely use death threats against his political opponents
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Indiana Republican called out by Trump on redistricting is swatted
Authorities said sheriff’s deputies responded to the home of state Sen. Greg Goode’s after a false report of violence.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/16/indiana-republican-trump-redistricting-swatted-00654098
about 10 hours ago
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Eric Umansky
about 12 hours ago
“They described being asked to drop cases for political reasons, to find evidence for flimsy investigations and to take positions in court they thought had no legitimate basis. They also talked about work they told to abandon — investigations of terrorist plots, corruption and white-collar fraud”
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Taniel
1 day ago
a big runoff last night, in New Orleans: Calvin Duncan was exonerated after spending *28 years* in prison; he tried to get his own case records from the New Orleans city clerk—but the office dragged its feet. So Duncan ran to become city clerk himself, and yesterday ousted the incumbent.
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Calvin Duncan wins Orleans clerk of court race - Verite News New Orleans
Duncan, a political newcomer and former prisoner, defeated incumbent Darren Lombard by a wide margin in Saturday's runoff.
https://veritenews.org/2025/11/16/calvin-duncan-wins-orleans-clerk-race/
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Kevin Morris
2 days ago
One of the post-election figures that's most stuck in my head. As we wait for SCOTUS to maybe say "race and party can't be separated, so let's call everything partisanship," it's important to remember that these still can be parsed from one another in American politics
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Nicholas Grossman
1 day ago
The Founders were so concerned about bribery that the Constitution forbids it three separate times. Two emoluments clauses ban officials—unambiguously including the president—from accepting things of value, plus bribery is the only named impeachable offense besides treason. Unprecedentedly corrupt.
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Christine Zhang
2 days ago
NEW: New Jersey’s township data is (mostly) in, so
@shanegoldmacher.bsky.social
& I crunched the numbers on NJ’s blue shift/pendulum swing The same majority-Hispanic cities & towns that swung to Trump in 24 shifted back D, to Mikie Sherrill, in the governor’s race
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...
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Maps Show How Latinos Who Shifted Right in 2024 Snapped Back Left in 2025
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/us/politics/latino-voters-new-jersey.html
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Eric Rauchway
2 days ago
“If you support keeping the filibuster you are not serious about moving the country forward in any positive direction.…you should absolutely be primaried with the intent of removing you from office at the first opportunity.”
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G Elliott Morris
2 days ago
The elections last week proved that Trump's success in 2024 was best explained as a *dealignment* in politics, hastened by but not only due to inflation — but not a Trump *realignment*. This week, polls showed POTUS slipping further w/ Gen Z and Latinos
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
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The 2024 Trump "realignment" is over already
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-winning-2024-coalition-has?r=a9pj
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Jake Grumbach
3 days ago
Basically saying "if you do crime for me, I won't only pardon you--I'll give you millions of dollars of public money." Truly unprecedented level of corruption
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Michael Flynn, DOJ in Settlement Talks Over $50 Million Claim
The Justice Department has been discussing settlements with two former officials from Donald Trump’s first term who — like the president — claim they’re owed major payouts from the US government as vi...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/michael-flynn-doj-in-settlement-talks-over-50-million-claim
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I think Republicans could still draw more extreme gerrymanders in many states if they truly wanted to. But so many GOP incumbents don't want their seats to go from Trump+30 to Trump+15 when they'd gain many new constituents & actually have to campaign in a Dem wave, even if they'd likely still win
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3 days ago
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Taniel
3 days ago
Big news: Indiana Republicans signal they still do not have the votes to re-gerrymander the state, and that the Senate won't convene the Senate after all in December. Getting 1-2 seats out of Indiana was central to the GOP's redistricting-war math.
www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
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Indiana redistricting push likely dead despite White House pressure
It’s a massive blow to the White House’s efforts to shore up a Republican House majority next year.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/14/indiana-redistricting-trump-vance-00652288?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky
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Michael McDonald
3 days ago
Having been involved as an expert witness in three documentary proof of citizenship cases I expect DHS will find there are 1,000s of naturalized citizens who haven't updated their drivers' license citizenship status but they'll claim they are noncitizens
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Kyle Cheney
4 days ago
NEW: The Nevada Supreme Court has revived the criminal case against the Trump 2020 fake electors, ruling that AG Ford was correct to bring the case in Clark County.
www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...
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Robinson Meyer
4 days ago
Straightforward confirmation from Angus King that the gang of eight made the deal out of earnest concern for the filibuster.
www.pressherald.com/2025/11/13/w...
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David Nir
4 days ago
Filing a motion to intervene in an *existing* lawsuit is *not* the same as filing a new lawsuit.
@democracydocket.com
's headline gets it right. This one from AP is misleading.
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Melissa Gira Grant
4 days ago
"In 2025, 40% of women aged 15 to 44 say they would move abroad permanently if they had the opportunity. The current figure is four times higher than the 10% who shared this desire in 2014, when it was generally in line with other age and gender groups."
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Record Numbers of Younger Women Want to Leave the U.S.
The percentage of younger women in the U.S. who express a desire to migrate permanently has surged in the past decade.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/697382/record-numbers-younger-women-leave.aspx
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The Downballot
4 days ago
For decades, any Utah Democrat who wanted to go to Congress had to campaign as a moderate or conservative. Now that the state has a solidly blue congressional seat, though, running as a progressive is suddenly an effective strategy.
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Morning Digest: Utah will soon host its first a contested Democratic primary for a blue House seat
Moderate Democrats are starting to refashion themselves as more pugnacious
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-utah-will-soon-host
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Daniel Gilmore
5 days ago
Again, maybe what the takeaway we should have from political reporter after political reporter not just getting chummy w ppl like Trump or Epstein (or RFK Jr 👀) but actively running interference for them—either in their coverage or privately—is that its an industry full of ppl that are Bad Actually™️
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Chris Hayes
5 days ago
I think this helpfully confirms the notion that the end of the filibuster was a big motivator for the eight Dems.
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Taniel
5 days ago
WTF, the Kansas City Star is reporting that a mysterious group hired a fake 'campaign canvasser' who'd join the effort to collect signatures to halt the GOP's gerrymander... but who'd be a spy on the inside.
www.kansascity.com/news/politic...
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Inside mysterious push to block signature-gathering against Missouri redistricting
The source of the contract remains a mystery. But its existence has raised alarm as Missouri gears up for a potential statewide vote.
https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article312808885.html
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mtsw
5 days ago
Our leading news organizations turned a cache of ultimately-innocuous emails into a scandal-coded weeklong series of front page stories leading into the 2016 election. If they do not cover the "emails from notorious pedophile implication the President" emails with the same fervor, it's curious!
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Nicholas Grossman
6 days ago
Said Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) used his massive wealth to buy Paramount, turn CBS from a news org into right-wing propaganda, and get a big stake in TikTok USA. Plus bid for Warner Brothers - Discovery, which owns a lot of media properties (eg CNN), presumably to make it propaganda too.
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sarah jeong
6 days ago
how did i go so long not knowing we were literally teaching people to read wrong. i knew something wasn't right but jesus christ
www.apmreports.org/episode/2019...
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How a flawed idea is teaching millions of kids to be poor readers
For decades, schools have taught children the strategies of struggling readers, using a theory about reading that cognitive scientists have repeatedly debunked. And many teachers and parents don't kno...
https://www.apmreports.org/episode/2019/08/22/whats-wrong-how-schools-teach-reading
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Chris Hayes
6 days ago
The thing to understand about this is that this catastrophe in the UK has redounded to the political benefit of the very same people and political movement that pushed for it! Extremely perverse.
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With new congressional maps in CA, MO, NC, OH, TX, & UT, the national 2026 map would have 207 Harris seats, two MORE than the 2024 map. The median seat would move left from Trump+3.1 (AZ-01) to Trump+2.6 (OH-01). I expect more GOP gerrymanders to come, but CA & UT have done a lot to counteract them
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6 days ago
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Dems will almost certainly flip one seat on Utah's new congressional map if it stands. It creates a safely blue Harris+24 seat in Salt Lake City, replacing a GOP gerrymander that split the SLC area four ways to ensure every seat was dark red. Interactive map:
davesredistricting.org/join/cf1048c...
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6 days ago
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Colin Campbell
7 days ago
The State Board of Elections has hired new top staff members who have previously worked for Republican elected officials:
www.wunc.org/politics/202...
#ncpol
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NC State Board of Elections hires new staff with ties to Republicans
The State Board of Elections has hired new top staff members who have previously worked for Republican elected officials. The hiring moves come after the legislature moved the agency into the state au...
https://www.wunc.org/politics/2025-11-10/nc-state-board-of-elections-hires-new-staff-with-ties-to-republicans
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Hoyer is notable because his desire for certain territory in his district helped prevent an 8-0 map with a third Black district in prior remaps (especially in 2012). If Axios' recent report that he's likely to retire is accurate, it would make an 8-0 map with increased Black representation easier
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7 days ago
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Virginia Dems won 64 of 100 House seats in 2025, their largest majority since they won 64 seats (+ 1 independent) in 1987. The maps of those elections are drastically different (2025 on left). Darker colors represent flips. (Wikipedia has maps going back decades)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Vi...
7 days ago
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Alex Burness
7 days ago
In addition to military/overseas voters, young people and non-white people tend to vote later, and thus are more vulnerable to bans on counting late-arriving ballots. That is why Trump wants this change, and why plenty of red states have lately rushed to do his bidding:
boltsmag.org/restrictions...
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Counting mail ballots that arrive late but were mailed by Election Day ensures postal service delays don’t disenfranchise voters, particularly active duty military and overseas voters. Trump and his movement want to prevent them from voting
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7 days ago
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Aaron Rupar
7 days ago
KILMEADE: Schumer says he's voting no. Did you do this outside leadership? SHAHEEN: No. We kept leadership informed throughout.
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The Republican Senate majority is built on minority rule, enabled by unequal representation & the two-party system. The GOP hasn’t won more total votes or represented more people than Dems since the 1990s. They’ve won the Senate in 7 of 13 elections since 2000 anyway
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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8 days ago
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Max Kennerly
8 days ago
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it. Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
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jamelle
8 days ago
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
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Kevin Elliott
8 days ago
This is why this surrender isn't just about this narrow issue but is rather the whole constitutional ballgame: Democrats are affirmatively signaling they do not want political power at the same time Trump is transitioning the political system into an autocratic one wherein they're denied it forever
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Adam Serwer
8 days ago
Unfortunately still true
bsky.app/profile/adam...
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The insurrection succeeded
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8 days ago
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Quinn Yeargain
8 days ago
reminder to any ambitious Dems waiting in the wings: announcing a primary challenge right now to a squishy Democrat who’s up in 2026, whether they voted tonight to shine Trump’s shoes or not, will almost instantaneously be awash in cash. fortune—and a primary challenge—favors the bold.
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Why nearly all of them up for reelection next year deserve primaries anyway:
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8 days ago
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Matt Ortega
8 days ago
The caucus meeting was just to orchestrate who would fall on the sword but not be up for a vote in 2026.
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A big factor in Virginia: The demise of Republican gerrymandering, which the Trump era’s realignment also eroded. VA’s House had aggressive GOP gerrymanders from 2001-2017. A racial gerrymandering lawsuit then weakened the GOP’s map for 2019-2021. Finally, 2023-2025 used a fairer court-drawn map
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8 days ago
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jamelle
9 days ago
the thing about this is that a) small states do not have any interests that are inherent to their size (no less than james madison understood this) b) the senate is organized along party lines which makes the small/big distinction almost irrelevant and c) the filibuster has never been used this way
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Dems won Georgia’s Public Service Commission elections by 25-point landslides—their largest for any office since 1998—and improved over 2024 everywhere. These maps compare results by state House district for: 2024 president (left) - 96-84 Trump majority 2025 PSC seat 3 (right) - 115-65 Dem majority
9 days ago
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Meanwhile at the Supreme Court, the Republican justices made it practically impossible to challenge racial gerrymandering that benefits Republicans last year and are poised to gut the remaining protections of the Voting Rights Act soon
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9 days ago
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Virginia’s Senate president pro tem has been posting things like this and calling for passing a 10D-1R congressional map next year 👀
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9 days ago
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