Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
đ€ 116073
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đ 2484
Contributor
@the-downballot.com
. Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
pinned post!
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide. Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000. Data & charts below:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
over 1 year ago
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Brian Beutler
about 11 hours ago
If Jared Polis caves to extortion and pardons an unrepentant insurrectionists, he should be impeached and removed. But everyone involved would probably be better off in Colorado Dems brandished the threat, and Polis backed down.
www.offmessage.net/p/impeach-ja...
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Impeach Jared Polis?
It may be necessary...
https://www.offmessage.net/p/impeach-jared-polis
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Jake Grumbach
about 10 hours ago
The top 100 GOP donors gave over half of all GOP funds in the 2024 cycle
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Omar Wasow
about 10 hours ago
âThe Times analysis found 300 billionaires and their families donated more than $3 billionâ19% of all contributionsâin federal elections in 2024. The billionaire families gave an average total of $10 million each in 2024, roughly equal to what 100,000 typical political donors gave, combined.â Gift:
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Billionaires Are Swaying Elections in All Corners of America
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/us/billionaires-federal-election-campaign-contributions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.R1A.Ji9O.uKAZ8NyjfUZk&smid=url-share
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Don Moynihan
about 14 hours ago
New, from me: Trump's retribution against Anthropic is over the top. But it should cause Democrats to think about how they will deal with contractors like Musk or Ellison when they return to power. What do you do with vendors working to oppose you? đ§”
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/procuremen...
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Procurement, Capacity and Soverignity
When your contractors are also your enemy
https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/procurement-capacity-and-soverignity
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him)
about 13 hours ago
My latest
@npr.org
story: The Republican push to alter the
#2030Census
may lead to a radical shift in redistricting for state legislatures â drawing districts that donât take into account children and non-U.S. citizen adults
www.npr.org/2026/03/09/n...
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The next redistricting battle might be who is counted in state legislative districts
A Republican push to alter the census may lead to a radical shift in redistricting for state legislatures â drawing districts that don't take into account children and non-U.S. citizen adults.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/09/nx-s1-5613878/us-census-citizenship-question-redistricting
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Since 2016, Republican legislators in several states have stripped the governorâs powers after losing control of the office to Democrats: North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Kentucky, etc. Iowa Republicans may be taking things a step further and doing it preemptively
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about 10 hours ago
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This is a very good sign for North Carolina Democrats this fall. (Of course, correlation â causation)
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about 10 hours ago
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Utah Republicans have recently advanced several major power grabs: 1) They packed Utahâs Supreme Court after the courts replaced their congressional gerrymander with a fairer map. 2) Theyâre trying to put an initiative on Novemberâs ballot that would re-legalize gerrymandering. 3) And now this:
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about 13 hours ago
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The Downballot
about 11 hours ago
Another conservative justice on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, Annette Ziegler, just announced she'll retire ahead of next year's elections. Her announcement comes just weeks before conservatives are trying to defend a different open seat. Liberals could emerge with a 6-1 majority by 2027.
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Former Wisconsin Chief Justice Annette Ziegler will not run for reelection
MADISON, Wis. -- Former Wisconsin Supreme Court Chief Justice Annette Ziegler will not run for reelection in 2027, she announced Monday, ending two decades of service on the state's top
https://www.channel3000.com/news/former-wisconsin-chief-justice-annette-ziegler-will-not-run-for-reelection/article_df05f330-1feb-4c6b-82ca-f71a7c4ddc4a.html
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A.R. Moxon
about 14 hours ago
If an official commits an impeachable offense and nobody acts to impeach, it is no longer an impeachable offense. People who oppose impeachment as âpointlessâ because it seems unlikely to result in removal do not understand this very simple point and seem unwilling to even try to understand it.
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Noah Shachtman
about 13 hours ago
Why the US is particularly vulnerable to oil price shocks...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...
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Bobby Kogan
about 13 hours ago
What are we even doing here? The bulk of this is like four trillion dollar regressive tax cut that doesnât help the poorest families at all and helps the richest the most. To make it less regressive, he adds like another two trillion in progressive tax cuts that targets families with kids.
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Ahead of 2028, Sen. Cory Booker to unveil bill to make $75,000 in income tax-free
The bill is a marker for the next time Democrats get a chance to rewrite the tax code. The New Jersey senator told NBC News he's keeping the door open to a 2028 presidential bid.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/sen-cory-booker-2028-potential-unveil-bill-making-75000-income-tax-fre-rcna262093
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Utah Republicans have passed a bill that would let GOP cities secede from the only big blue county, where Dems may gain full control of county govt in 2026. Salt Lake County has 1/3 of Utahâs residents, but that could drop considerablyâunless courts block this for violating the legislative deadline
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about 13 hours ago
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No mention in the headline/subhead that Trumpâs takeover plot is wildly unconstitutional. The story is better & discusses GOP election subversion but still doesnât note a fed takeover is unconstitutional (or that NCâs GOP takeover attempts were ruled illegal until they flipped the NC Supreme Court)
1 day ago
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Don Moynihan
1 day ago
President threatens to block all legislation in order to disenfranchise large numbers of married women, others
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-save-a...
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Brian Beutler
2 days ago
Seems like the Colorado House Speaker could (and should) preempt this with an impeachment threat.
www.denverpost.com/2026/03/04/j...
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Colorado Democrats blast Gov. Jared Polis as he again hints at intervening in Tina Petersâ prison sentence
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis has again signaled that he thinks Tina Petersâ prison sentence was too harsh as he considers granting some form of clemency â though not a full pardon, his offâŠ
https://www.denverpost.com/2026/03/04/jared-polis-tina-peters-considering-commutation/
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2 days ago
Iran is substantially larger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined is also probably useful info.
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Michael Li (æäčæšž)
3 days ago
61 years ago today at the foot of the Edmund Pettus Bridge, Selma, Alabama.
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In the latest sign that Florida Republicans will go through with re-gerrymandering the congressional map when they reconvene on April 20 for a special session called by Gov. Ron DeSantis, legislators have advanced a bill to delay the candidate filing period from April to June
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Florida closer to delaying candidate qualifying for redistricting
Florida senators moved the congressional candidate qualifying period to allow for redistricting. The House must now agree.
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/state/2026/03/05/florida-closer-to-delaying-candidate-qualifying-for-redistricting/88978894007/
2 days ago
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New York Dems are reportedly still expected to push for a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map in 2028 to counter GOP gerrymanders. Dems could target 3-4 seats currently held by GOP. Dems must pass it both in 2026 & 2027, then win voter approval in November 2027
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Sunnyside Yard and the shifting politics of housing
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2026/03/06/sunnyside-yard-and-the-shifting-politics-of-housing-00816125
2 days ago
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The New York Times reports on how congressional candidates are courting cash from the cryptocurrency industry, which has already spent millions backing their preferred candidates in this yearâs earliest Democratic primaries
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How Candidates Are Using Winks and Posts to Seek Crypto and A.I. Cash
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/us/politics/ai-crypto-money-midterms-congress.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RVA.tjYr.mLZJXRfn1Pjl&smid=nytcore-ios-share
2 days ago
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Jon From CA
3 days ago
Of the five GOP reps who got drawn out by Prop 50: Valadao: Staying and fighting Kiley: Moving to another district that heâll probably still lose (as an independent???) Calvert: Trying to backstab Young Kim Issa: Retiring LaMalfa: Dead
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Robert Saunders
3 days ago
In the second half of 2025, one man accounted for almost 40% of all money donated to political parties in the UK: a crypto-billionaire who lives in Thailand. Britain desperately needs to rewrite its party funding rules.
observer.co.uk/news/the-sen...
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Christopher Harborne has cemented Reformâs status as a mo...
New political donation rules wonât stop him giving as much as he likes
https://observer.co.uk/news/the-sensemaker/article/christopher-harborne-has-cemented-reforms-status-as-a-money-making-machine
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The Downballot
3 days ago
Indiana Republican Blake Fiechter, who was running against a GOP senator who opposed redistricting but dropped out after less than a month, now says he's back in the race after a meeting with Trump at the White House
www.facebook.com/blake.fiecht...
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Anna Bower
4 days ago
SCOOP: A prosecutor who helped build the Georgia election interference case against Trump is running to unseat the appeals court judge whose ruling helped bring the case to an end. Will Wooten will challenge Trent Brown, who wrote the opinion disqualifying Fani Willis. Me for
@ajc.com
(link in đ§”đ)
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#1 Nate Blouin for Congress Stan
3 days ago
Georgia Democrats are running in 204 state legislative races, contesting 88% of House seats and 82% of Senate seats â Democratsâ highest number of qualified candidates and contested seats in at least three decades, according to the state party
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[Republican also passed new gerrymanders in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio] Ruffini: Doesnât look like anything to me
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3 days ago
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Joey Politanođłïžâđ
4 days ago
It's remarkable how low this number can get and still keep going down
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Lily Mason
3 days ago
After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence,
@nathankalmoe.bsky.social
and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques.
doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
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How to Measure Public Support for Political Violence
Abstract. With low but rising levels of violent political threats and violent acts by civilians in the United States, researchers increasingly want to meas
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfaf069
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Taniel
3 days ago
Wow, a huge bipartisan coalition passed a bill in the Missouri House to allow anyone who is not presently incarcerated to vote. More than half the states allow this, but Democrats have led this in the last decade. Haven't seen a GOP-led chamber pass this in that time. Big deal.
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Missourians on probation and parole canât vote. Their rights might be restored
The House has approved legislation that would allow the more than 53,000 people supervised by the state to vote.
https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-03-05/missourians-probation-parole-rights-might-be-restored
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Daniel Donner
3 days ago
With a sudden surge of open House sets on the GOP side, we're once again in record territory. Democrats have slowed the pace recently.
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POLITICO Europe
3 days ago
Iceland will hold a referendum on Aug. 29 to decide whether to relaunch its stalled talks to join the EU, its government said today.
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Iceland to hold Aug. 29 referendum on reviving EU membership talks
Icelanders will have the chance to decide their future once and for all, the prime minister said.
https://www.politico.eu/article/iceland-kristrun-frostadottir-august-29-referendum-eu-membership-talks/
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Taniel
3 days ago
NEW: Believe it or not, itâs that time of year: the Wisconsin Supreme Court election is next month. Liberals have a huge opportunity: if they win, they can lock down the majority of this court thru 2030. That means theyâd have it in the next presidential race, a big democracy guardrail. Share:
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Eyeing Voting Rights, Liberals Aim to Secure Wisconsinâs Supreme Court through 2030 - Bolts
After flipping the court in 2023, Wisconsin liberals now hope to expand their majority on a body that could be a critical backstop for voting rights during the next presidential election.
https://boltsmag.org/wisconsin-supreme-court-election-lazar-taylor/
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Deva Woodly
4 days ago
There are a lot of cynical responses to this that are possible, even appropriate, but this finding is an indication of both how we got here & a window into how dire the democratic crisis. Co governance is pretty hard if you assume bad faith from most of your fellows *especially* if itâs warranted.
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Online gambling companies are the 21st century equivalent of Big Tobaccoâwith the bonus of insider trading corruption and providing fuel for election conspiracy theories
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4 days ago
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Andy Grabia
4 days ago
An original Nashville sit-in member, along with Diane Nash, James Bevel, and John Lewis. Trained in non-violence by James Lawson. At age 21, he signed a will before the Freedom Rides, knowing he could die. May his soul be at peace, and may we all have such courage in the face of oppression.
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The Downballot
4 days ago
Oh wow. North Carolina Republican Bob Ruchoâwhose name is on the caption of the infamous 2019 SCOTUS case that greenlighted partisan gerrymandering, Rucho v. Common Causeâhas resigned from the state Board of Elections after violating a ban on board members donating to political candidates.
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Republican NC elections board member Bob Rucho resigns as Berger-Page race remains undecided
Rucho is quitting in part over recent contributions made to 2026 sheriff candidates, officials say. Rucho also made statements supporting the reelection of state Sen. Phil Berger. Elections board memb...
https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/rucho-resigns-north-carolina-state-board-of-elections-hawkins-appointed-mar-2026/
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đđđ âProportional systems also have a unique advantage when applied to the U.S. context: It is possible to achieve fair representation for voters of color without race-conscious districting. In fact, [PR] makes gerrymandering functionally impossible if enough seats are elected per district.â
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4 days ago
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OlĂșfáșčÌmi O. TĂĄĂwĂČ
6 days ago
this is not an amount of money any individual or household should be able to have and we have to abolish both billionaires as a group and the economic system that makes them possible
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jen rice
4 days ago
A story that really deserves more national attention: Kansans are fighting a new state law that invalidated transgender residentsâ driverâs licenses & birth certificates, depriving them of required voter ID shortly before the 2026 primary election đ§”
www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
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Kansans challenge state law that invalidated trans residentsâ IDs ahead of midterm elections
The new state law went into effect Thursday after Republican lawmakers overrode Gov. Laura Kellyâs veto on Feb. 18, immediately invalidating trans residentsâ identification.
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/kansans-challenge-state-law-that-invalidated-trans-residents-ids-ahead-of-midterm-elections/
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Kim Lane Scheppele
4 days ago
excellent deep dive into all of the ways that the Trump administration has used the federal budget to keep punishing critics and trying to bend them to his will. FWIW, this is precisely how Viktor Orban crushed the opposition in Hungary 15 years ago. The national budget is a powerful weapon.
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A majority of Harris voters lived in Trump states. A majority of Trump voters in 2020 lived in Biden states. Democrats have won 42-46% of the vote in the South in every presidential election over the past three decades. States and regions of the country arenât monoliths
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4 days ago
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Barack Obama
5 days ago
Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of our democracy. But right now, theyâre under attack. Several Republican-controlled states have redrawn their congressional maps to give themselves an unfair advantage in the midterm elections.
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Kyle Clark
5 days ago
NEW: Clemency for Tina Peters would be unprecedented, based on my analysis of Gov Polis' 25 commutations. Peters hasn't shown remorse, taken accountability, or sought to restore harm. No Polis commutation was for a harsh sentence alone and Peters' would be the shortest by 30+ yrs
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Kyle Clark
5 days ago
NEW: Governor Jared Polis (D) tells me Tina Peters would have to show appropriate contrition for her crimes to receive clemency. Polis is clearly leaning strongly toward it. Our conversation tonight on
@nexton9news.bsky.social
at 6pm on 9NEWS/streaming on 9NEWS+.
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đš Virginia Democrats may succeed in implementing their new 10-1 congressional map targeting 4 Republicans this year after the VAâs top court let the April 21 referendum proceed. Litigation remains ongoing, but this removes a major hurdle. Interactive map+data
davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...
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5 days ago
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Pam Herd
5 days ago
Really interesting thread--I did not know that FDR was clear that he was increasing the number of Supreme Court Justices so that he could actually enact the New Deal.
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Thereâs been much talk of Texasâ new 30-8 GOP gerrymander backfiring, but itâs likely nowhere close. The GOP may lose several seats they drew to win yet still be no worse off than before. Dems would have a good shot at a majority without gerrymandering but might win 14/38 seats at best on this map
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5 days ago
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Polis should be impeached if he does this. This would be little different than granting clemency to a January 6 insurrectionist
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6 days ago
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Mark Joseph Stern
5 days ago
I agree, quite apart from the merits of the case. Alito could only defend the Supreme Court's authority to intervene by grievously misrepresenting the facts. The reality is that there's no plausible argument SCOTUS had the power to do what it did. Why didn't that matter to six justices?
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