Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
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Contributor
@the-downballot.com
. Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
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Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide. Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000. Data & charts below:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
over 1 year ago
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JFKâs grandson Jack Schlossberg, one of the leading primary contenders for New Yorkâs dark blue 12th Congressional District, tweeted in December 2024 that he opposed D.C. statehood. D.C. voted 85% for statehood in a 2016 referendum. House Dems passed it unanimously in 2021
x.com/JBKSchlossbe...
24 minutes ago
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David DeWitt
about 7 hours ago
Commentary: If you are one of Ohioâs nearly 8 million registered voters, Sec. of State Frank LaRose just gave your full name, address, date of birth, driverâs license and partial Social Security number, to Trump's Justice Department.
ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/03/11/s...
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Secretary of State Frank LaRose gives info of 8 million Ohio voters to Trump Justice Department ⢠Ohio Capital Journal
If you are one of Ohioâs nearly 8 million registered voters, your personally identifiable information like full name, address, date of birth, driverâs license and partial Social Security numbers mayâŚ
https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/03/11/secretary-of-state-frank-larose-gives-8-million-ohio-voters-information-to-trump-justice-department/
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This is a direct response to Utah courts overturning the GOPâs congressional gerrymander after voters passed a ballot initiative to ban gerrymandering. Republicans already passed a law to pack the Utah Supreme Court earlier this year
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about 2 hours ago
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Seth Klamann
about 7 hours ago
New: Gov. Polisâ office has told lawmakers that he will hold off on intervening in Tina Petersâ sentence until after the Colorado Court of Appeals weighs in. Delay comes as every Democratic state lawmaker signs a letter urging Polis not to reduce her prison term:
www.denverpost.com/2026/03/11/t...
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Gov. Jared Polis punts Tina Peters clemency decision until after appeals court weighs in, his office tells lawmakers
âWe urge you not to empower those who seek to undermine our elections and Republic by providing them with a figurehead to rally around,â dozens of state lawmakers wrote in a letter to GâŚ
https://www.denverpost.com/2026/03/11/tina-peters-clemency-delay-jared-polis/
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This sounds like a senator who knows heâs doomed in the primary runoff without Trumpâs endorsement. Cornyn was McConnellâs number 2 for years & narrowly lost the race to succeed him as GOP leader. Him actually wanting to give future Dems the power to pass bills with simple majorities seems dubious
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John Cornyn voices support for abolishing Senate filibuster
Cornynâs change of heart comes amid a grueling primary battle with Attorney General Ken Paxton, who said he'd consider dropping out if Republicans scrapped the filibuster to pass a voter ID law.
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/03/11/john-cornyn-filibuster-save-america-act-texas-senate-runoff-voter-id/
about 5 hours ago
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G Elliott Morris
about 6 hours ago
New: The groups Trump made the biggest inroads with in 2024 are the ones most likely to disapprove of how he's doing as POTUS. That includes Black, Latino, working class, and young voters. So much for the new multi-racial, working-class Republican Party?
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-borr...
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Chris Warshaw
about 7 hours ago
PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats.
planscore.org#!predict7D-u...
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PlanScore
PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...
https://planscore.org/#!predict7D-ushouse
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Ogles is a vile bigot whoâs also doing performative cruelty to win his primary. 1) he won a gerrymandered seat 2) local news busted him for pathologically lying about his entire life story 3) his 2026 GOP primary & Dem challengers crushed him in fundraising 4) Dems could beat him if renominated
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about 8 hours ago
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Dems overperformed by a 17-point margin in Georgia's 14th Congressional District special election primary. The combined party vote is 60-40 Republican in a district Trump won 68-31. All candidates ran on one ballot, and Democrat Shawn Harris will face Republican Clayton Fuller in the April 7 runoff
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Georgia 14th Congressional District Special 2026: Live Election Results
Get live results and maps from the 2026 Georgia special election.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-georgia-us-house-14-special.html
about 19 hours ago
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Stephen Wolf
The Downballot
about 18 hours ago
Because you sickos love this, here's the updated flip count in legislative seats since the start of Trump's second term, following tonight's Dem win in New Hampshire: Democrats: 28 Republicans: 0
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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Lawrence Hurley
about 9 hours ago
NEW: Confidence in the Supreme Court has dropped to a new low, according to the latest NBC News polling. Details:
www.nbcnews.com/politics/sup...
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Dems overperformed by a 17-point margin in Georgia's 14th Congressional District special election primary. The combined party vote is 60-40 Republican in a district Trump won 68-31. All candidates ran on one ballot, and Democrat Shawn Harris will face Republican Clayton Fuller in the April 7 runoff
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Georgia 14th Congressional District Special 2026: Live Election Results
Get live results and maps from the 2026 Georgia special election.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-georgia-us-house-14-special.html
about 19 hours ago
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Tim Marchman
about 22 hours ago
I talked to dozens of experts in government, academia, cybersecurity, and industry about exactly this scenario last year and not only did not one of them think I was being alarmist, many brought it up unprompted and many said there was zero chance it hadnât already happened
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Radley Balko
1 day ago
This is just astonishingly great reporting. All of the crises the White House has claimed over the last 14 months were planned in advance. All of them. And however much contempt you have for media outlets who reverently relayed Trump's claim to have no relation to Project 2025, it isn't enough.
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Insurrectionist Brunch: Trumpists plotted to deploy military on U.S. soil
Before the 2024 election, a cadre of MAGA loyalists met over brunch to plot ways for Trump to use the military domestically.
https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/trumpists-plotted-deploy-military-on-us-soil-before-election-40650142/
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Billy Corriher
1 day ago
The Kentucky GOP is using a bait and switch bill to make judicial elections partisan. Ten years ago, NC became the first state to adopt partisan judicial races in 100 years. Ohio followed. Now KY?
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Isabella M. Weber
6 days ago
The war on Iran is causing gas and oil price explosions. Our research shows: Fossil fuel prices are the most important prices for inflation and inequality. Energy price shocks are redistribution shocks. The poorer you are, the larger the share of income you spend on essentials.
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Jake Grumbach
2 days ago
This is not trueâdriverâs licenses arenât acceptable under the SAVE Act without additional proof of citizenship. The fact that they keep doing this sleight of hand should make clear that the SAVE Act is not something that âevery American getsâ
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Sandy F.
1 day ago
âOn February 27, citing budgetary constraints, the State Board instructed county boards of elections to stop distributing voter registration forms in bulk â a long-established practice all over the country. Cost concerns aside, the directive likely violates the National Voter Registration Act.â
#nc
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Matthew Gertz
1 day ago
Few people asked for this and few people like it.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/u...
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Brian Beutler
2 days ago
If Jared Polis caves to extortion and pardons an unrepentant insurrectionists, he should be impeached and removed. But everyone involved would probably be better off in Colorado Dems brandished the threat, and Polis backed down.
www.offmessage.net/p/impeach-ja...
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Impeach Jared Polis?
It may be necessary...
https://www.offmessage.net/p/impeach-jared-polis
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Jake Grumbach
2 days ago
The top 100 GOP donors gave over half of all GOP funds in the 2024 cycle
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Omar Wasow
2 days ago
âThe Times analysis found 300 billionaires and their families donated more than $3 billionâ19% of all contributionsâin federal elections in 2024. The billionaire families gave an average total of $10 million each in 2024, roughly equal to what 100,000 typical political donors gave, combined.â Gift:
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Billionaires Are Swaying Elections in All Corners of America
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/us/billionaires-federal-election-campaign-contributions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.R1A.Ji9O.uKAZ8NyjfUZk&smid=url-share
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Don Moynihan
2 days ago
New, from me: Trump's retribution against Anthropic is over the top. But it should cause Democrats to think about how they will deal with contractors like Musk or Ellison when they return to power. What do you do with vendors working to oppose you? đ§ľ
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/procuremen...
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Procurement, Capacity and Soverignity
When your contractors are also your enemy
https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/procurement-capacity-and-soverignity
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him)
2 days ago
My latest
@npr.org
story: The Republican push to alter the
#2030Census
may lead to a radical shift in redistricting for state legislatures â drawing districts that donât take into account children and non-U.S. citizen adults
www.npr.org/2026/03/09/n...
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The next redistricting battle might be who is counted in state legislative districts
A Republican push to alter the census may lead to a radical shift in redistricting for state legislatures â drawing districts that don't take into account children and non-U.S. citizen adults.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/09/nx-s1-5613878/us-census-citizenship-question-redistricting
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Since 2016, Republican legislators in several states have stripped the governorâs powers after losing control of the office to Democrats: North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Kentucky, etc. Iowa Republicans may be taking things a step further and doing it preemptively
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2 days ago
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This is a very good sign for North Carolina Democrats this fall. (Of course, correlation â causation)
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2 days ago
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Utah Republicans have recently advanced several major power grabs: 1) They packed Utahâs Supreme Court after the courts replaced their congressional gerrymander with a fairer map. 2) Theyâre trying to put an initiative on Novemberâs ballot that would re-legalize gerrymandering. 3) And now this:
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2 days ago
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The Downballot
2 days ago
Another conservative justice on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, Annette Ziegler, just announced she'll retire ahead of next year's elections. Her announcement comes just weeks before conservatives are trying to defend a different open seat. Liberals could emerge with a 6-1 majority by 2027.
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Former Wisconsin Chief Justice Annette Ziegler will not run for reelection
MADISON, Wis. -- Former Wisconsin Supreme Court Chief Justice Annette Ziegler will not run for reelection in 2027, she announced Monday, ending two decades of service on the state's top
https://www.channel3000.com/news/former-wisconsin-chief-justice-annette-ziegler-will-not-run-for-reelection/article_df05f330-1feb-4c6b-82ca-f71a7c4ddc4a.html
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A.R. Moxon
2 days ago
If an official commits an impeachable offense and nobody acts to impeach, it is no longer an impeachable offense. People who oppose impeachment as âpointlessâ because it seems unlikely to result in removal do not understand this very simple point and seem unwilling to even try to understand it.
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Noah Shachtman
2 days ago
Why the US is particularly vulnerable to oil price shocks...
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...
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Utah Republicans have passed a bill that would let GOP cities secede from the only big blue county, where Dems may gain full control of county govt in 2026. Salt Lake County has 1/3 of Utahâs residents, but that could drop considerablyâunless courts block this for violating the legislative deadline
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2 days ago
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No mention in the headline/subhead that Trumpâs takeover plot is wildly unconstitutional. The story is better & discusses GOP election subversion but still doesnât note a fed takeover is unconstitutional (or that NCâs GOP takeover attempts were ruled illegal until they flipped the NC Supreme Court)
3 days ago
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Don Moynihan
3 days ago
President threatens to block all legislation in order to disenfranchise large numbers of married women, others
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-save-a...
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Brian Beutler
4 days ago
Seems like the Colorado House Speaker could (and should) preempt this with an impeachment threat.
www.denverpost.com/2026/03/04/j...
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Colorado Democrats blast Gov. Jared Polis as he again hints at intervening in Tina Petersâ prison sentence
Colorado Gov. Jared Polis has again signaled that he thinks Tina Petersâ prison sentence was too harsh as he considers granting some form of clemency â though not a full pardon, his offâŚ
https://www.denverpost.com/2026/03/04/jared-polis-tina-peters-considering-commutation/
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4 days ago
Iran is substantially larger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined is also probably useful info.
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Michael Li (ćäšć¨¸)
4 days ago
61 years ago today at the foot of the Edmund Pettus Bridge, Selma, Alabama.
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In the latest sign that Florida Republicans will go through with re-gerrymandering the congressional map when they reconvene on April 20 for a special session called by Gov. Ron DeSantis, legislators have advanced a bill to delay the candidate filing period from April to June
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Florida closer to delaying candidate qualifying for redistricting
Florida senators moved the congressional candidate qualifying period to allow for redistricting. The House must now agree.
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/state/2026/03/05/florida-closer-to-delaying-candidate-qualifying-for-redistricting/88978894007/
4 days ago
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New York Dems are reportedly still expected to push for a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map in 2028 to counter GOP gerrymanders. Dems could target 3-4 seats currently held by GOP. Dems must pass it both in 2026 & 2027, then win voter approval in November 2027
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Sunnyside Yard and the shifting politics of housing
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2026/03/06/sunnyside-yard-and-the-shifting-politics-of-housing-00816125
4 days ago
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The New York Times reports on how congressional candidates are courting cash from the cryptocurrency industry, which has already spent millions backing their preferred candidates in this yearâs earliest Democratic primaries
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How Candidates Are Using Winks and Posts to Seek Crypto and A.I. Cash
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/us/politics/ai-crypto-money-midterms-congress.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RVA.tjYr.mLZJXRfn1Pjl&smid=nytcore-ios-share
4 days ago
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Jon From CA
5 days ago
Of the five GOP reps who got drawn out by Prop 50: Valadao: Staying and fighting Kiley: Moving to another district that heâll probably still lose (as an independent???) Calvert: Trying to backstab Young Kim Issa: Retiring LaMalfa: Dead
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Robert Saunders
5 days ago
In the second half of 2025, one man accounted for almost 40% of all money donated to political parties in the UK: a crypto-billionaire who lives in Thailand. Britain desperately needs to rewrite its party funding rules.
observer.co.uk/news/the-sen...
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Christopher Harborne has cemented Reformâs status as a mo...
New political donation rules wonât stop him giving as much as he likes
https://observer.co.uk/news/the-sensemaker/article/christopher-harborne-has-cemented-reforms-status-as-a-money-making-machine
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The Downballot
5 days ago
Indiana Republican Blake Fiechter, who was running against a GOP senator who opposed redistricting but dropped out after less than a month, now says he's back in the race after a meeting with Trump at the White House
www.facebook.com/blake.fiecht...
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Anna Bower
6 days ago
SCOOP: A prosecutor who helped build the Georgia election interference case against Trump is running to unseat the appeals court judge whose ruling helped bring the case to an end. Will Wooten will challenge Trent Brown, who wrote the opinion disqualifying Fani Willis. Me for
@ajc.com
(link in đ§ľđ)
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#1 Nate Blouin for Congress Stan
5 days ago
Georgia Democrats are running in 204 state legislative races, contesting 88% of House seats and 82% of Senate seats â Democratsâ highest number of qualified candidates and contested seats in at least three decades, according to the state party
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[Republican also passed new gerrymanders in Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio] Ruffini: Doesnât look like anything to me
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5 days ago
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Joey Politanođłď¸âđ
5 days ago
It's remarkable how low this number can get and still keep going down
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Lily Mason
5 days ago
After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence,
@nathankalmoe.bsky.social
and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques.
doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
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How to Measure Public Support for Political Violence
Abstract. With low but rising levels of violent political threats and violent acts by civilians in the United States, researchers increasingly want to meas
https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfaf069
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Taniel
5 days ago
Wow, a huge bipartisan coalition passed a bill in the Missouri House to allow anyone who is not presently incarcerated to vote. More than half the states allow this, but Democrats have led this in the last decade. Haven't seen a GOP-led chamber pass this in that time. Big deal.
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Missourians on probation and parole canât vote. Their rights might be restored
The House has approved legislation that would allow the more than 53,000 people supervised by the state to vote.
https://www.stlpr.org/government-politics-issues/2026-03-05/missourians-probation-parole-rights-might-be-restored
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Daniel Donner
5 days ago
With a sudden surge of open House sets on the GOP side, we're once again in record territory. Democrats have slowed the pace recently.
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