Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
š¤ 117610
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š 3235
Contributor
@the-downballot.com
. Elections, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
pinned post!
NEW š§µ: Here's how Dems could redraw 9 congressional maps by 2028 & target more than 20 GOP seats. The GOP tried to rig the national map in 2026, & Dems had few ways to respond. But Dems could fully counteract them by 2028. We have example maps for each state
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...
25 days ago
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him)
2 days ago
My latest
@npr.org
story: New public data for redistricting, policymaking and research may be reduced as Trump officials limit the ways the Census Bureau can protect peopleās privacy when it releases statistics
www.npr.org/2026/06/12/n...
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A Trump push to cut 'statistical noise' could mean less data from the Census Bureau
New public data for redistricting and other uses may be reduced as Trump officials limit the ways the Census Bureau can protect people's privacy when it releases statistics.
https://www.npr.org/2026/06/12/nx-s1-5855734/census-bureau-data-differential-privacy
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Carolina Forward
1 day ago
On Friday evening, the Republican leaders of North Carolina's state legislature dropped a big, unannounced, 36-page omnibus bill stuffed to the brim with new voting restrictions and elections changes. We got a full draft of the bill here:
https://carolinaforward.org/images/hb-958-pcs.pdf
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Ohio Organizing Collective, the target of the FBIās intimidation above, was one of the groups that tried to pass a far-reaching constitutional amendment in 2024 to protect voting access. Ohio Republicans illegally blocked the measure from the ballot, and Republican judges let them get away with it
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3 days ago
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One board member said the FBI approached some without warrants. āThey had agents all across the state going to civil rights leaders and community leadersā doors intimidating them, coming and demanding that they talk about literally anything they would ask.ā āJust straight-up intimidation tactics.ā
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3 days ago
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Neil Stenhouse
2 days ago
Graph of Muskās net worth over time from Jim Bianco
x.com/biancoresear...
pbs.twimg.com/media/HKkGn8...
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Andy Craig
2 days ago
Before Trump / 2020 / covid, the general assumption was that vote by mail was more of a Republican thing (elderly, rural, upper middle class) and early in-person voting was more for Democrats (unions, souls to the polls, working class families, etc.)
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Taniel
2 days ago
A 23-year old influencer who says he is "anti-universal suffrage" and that "women generally do not have what it takes to endure the pressures of a public office" has been hired to help run elections in a Utah county.
www.ksl.com/article/5151...
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Backlash erupts in Utah County after 23-year-old conservative influencer becomes deputy clerk
The Utah County clerk is facing backlash for filling the role of chief deputy clerk with a 23-year-old conservative influencer.
https://www.ksl.com/article/51510073/backlash-erupts-in-utah-county-after-23-year-old-conservative-influencer-becomes-deputy-clerk
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Trende is one of the GOPās go-to guys to testify in court to defend their gerrymanders. Like his statement here, multiple courts have deemed his testimony ānot credibleā
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3 days ago
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Prasad Jallepalli, MD, PhD
3 days ago
this is what "keeping a republic" means
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One board member said the FBI approached some without warrants. āThey had agents all across the state going to civil rights leaders and community leadersā doors intimidating them, coming and demanding that they talk about literally anything they would ask.ā āJust straight-up intimidation tactics.ā
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3 days ago
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jamelle
3 days ago
thatās right
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Murshed Zaheed
3 days ago
š "more black voters (41 percent) now identify the Supreme Court as the top threat to their community than the Trump presidency (39 percent). In June 2024, just 26 percent said the Court was the top threat." The word is getting out re John Roberts MAGA
#SCOTUS
.
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Dems See a Major Black Voter Backlash to SCOTUS
The Supreme Courtās gutting of the Voting Rights Act unleashed a wave of redistricting. Did it unleash a wave of voter anger too?
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/democrats-see-major-black-voter-backlash-to-supreme-court-voting-rights-scotus?r=1ej3t
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Ari Berman
3 days ago
Dems could draw more than 20 new blue districts by 2028, reversing GOPās redistricting advantage They need to maximize their power everywhere they have it to counteract Trump & SCOTUS destroying VRA I break it down here, citing great research by
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
@davidnir.com
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Ohio Republicans have placed an amendment on the ballot to require photo voter ID & have extended the existing law to require photocopy ID for mail voting. In 2024, they illegally blocked voters from putting an amendment to protect voting access on the ballot
ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/06/10/o...
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3 days ago
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Florida voters amended their constitution in 2010 to explicitly ban partisan and racial gerrymandering, and FLās Supreme Court overturned the GOPās congressional gerrymander in 2015. But Ron DeSantis has stacked the court since then, and his appointees have let the GOP get away with it this decade
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4 days ago
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Barred and Boujee aka Madiba Dennie
4 days ago
really upsetting coda to the case of Calvin Duncan, an exoneree who, as I wrote last month, was elected by New Orleans voters in a landslide, prompting state Republicans to pass a law *abolishing* his position: Louisiana Supreme Court upheld the law last week
ballsandstrikes.org/law-politics...
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Jon From CA
4 days ago
State Rep. Luke S. Rankin was the sponsor of the 7-0 map in South Carolina, while Luke A. Rankin was one of the senators who voted to kill it in the Senate. Whether it was because GOP voters had the wrong Luke Rankin or another reason entirely, Luke S. Rankin lost his primary 60-40 on Tuesday.
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Florida voters amended their constitution in 2010 to explicitly ban partisan and racial gerrymandering, and FLās Supreme Court overturned the GOPās congressional gerrymander in 2015. But Ron DeSantis has stacked the court since then, and his appointees have let the GOP get away with it this decade
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4 days ago
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Congress passed the 15th Amendment in 1869. Congress passed the Voting Rights Act in 1965. Congress amended the VRA in 1982 to say āno, we really mean itā after the Supreme Court limited its scope. John Roberts & co. have gutted all of that and would do so again. They have left us no other choice
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4 days ago
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Geoffrey Skelley
4 days ago
Valadao is now at 41% in the top-two primary results, which is an extremely bad sign for the GOP in this seat. If Valadao won after this, it would be the lowest % for a winning incumbent party in a top-two congressional primary in CA (since 2012) or WA (since 2008).
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Rick Hasen
4 days ago
#ELB: āPostal Service wonāt deliver mail ballots for states that donāt hand over voter lists, under plan for Trump directiveā
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=156674
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North Dakota voters have passed a constitutional amendment to limit voter-initiated amendments to a single subject. Itās one of several Republican attempts to stifle ballot initiatives in response to voters creating a government ethics commission in 2018 and trying to pass other election reforms
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North Dakota voters overwhelmingly approve single subject rule for ballot measures
North Dakota voters passed Constitutional Measure No. 1, which restricts all ballot measures to a single subject.
https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/voters-appear-to-approve-single-subject-rule-for-ballot-measures
4 days ago
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Jake Grumbach
5 days ago
Musk buying twitter, Bezos buying WaPo, Ellison buying CBSāall are less profitable now. But theyāre political investments that increase the value of the new ownersā portfolios Wealth concentration makes this possible, and thatās one mechanism by which inequality destroys democracy
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GOP Rep. David Valadao is at just 42% with roughly 72% of votes counted. The GOP has always been >50% in round 1 in his prior House races, & GOP support typically declines in November with higher turnout. This heavily Latino seat passed Prop 50 by 18 points in 2025, & Dems look favored to flip it
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5 days ago
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Dennis Lytton
5 days ago
We should be teeing up multiparty proportional representation for the 2030 midterms quickly in 2029, like by Valentine's Day Not doubling down on the two party single member districts that got us here
@liberalcurrents.com
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@davesredist.bsky.social
has launched a major update to its UI, with new and improved features for drawing, analyzing, and visualizing redistricting maps. One of those new features enables drawing maps on mobile devices (depending on their capabilities). Check it out here:
davesredistricting.org
5 days ago
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Julian Sanchez
5 days ago
You cannot address the underlying causes of bad-faith conspiracy theories. Any measures you introduce to speed up the count will be seized on as a pretext to claim the election is now less secure. (We want only paper ballots meticulously hand-counted by candlelight, and all results instantly!)
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@davesredist.bsky.social
has launched a major update to its UI, with new and improved features for drawing, analyzing, and visualizing redistricting maps. One of those new features enables drawing maps on mobile devices (depending on their capabilities). Check it out here:
davesredistricting.org
5 days ago
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The congressional mapās national Republican advantage is practically all due to gerrymandering, not political geography favoring Republicans on nonpartisan maps. I did a similar project last decade, though unlike this one, it preserved VRA districts. I may have to finally finish the 2020s version
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Congressional gerrymandering was just the beginning after the Supreme Court destroyed the Voting Rights Act. In 2027-2028, Republicans could re-gerrymander roughly a dozen state legislatures in the South and Great Plains to eliminate districts that empower Black, Latino, or Native American voters
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5 days ago
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Molly White
5 days ago
Striking graphic in this latest Reuters piece, which finds that while President Trump and his family have profited by at least $2.3Ā billion since he retook the presidency, their more than a million investors have suffered $2.3Ā billion in net losses.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
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Steve Vladeck
7 days ago
"The Courtās behavior in the Louisiana and Alabama cases over the past six weeks canāt be reconciled with or explained by any coherent understanding of what Purcell supposedly stands for. ... The overall pattern reveals justices behaving in a way that has no obvious explanation other than politics."
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231. The Death of Purcell's "Principle"
There is no coherent defense of the "Purcell principle" that can be rationalized with the Supreme Court's recent behavior in the AL and LA redistricting cases.
https://www.stevevladeck.com/p/231-the-death-of-purcells-principle
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Darin Self
6 days ago
Johnson: Gerrymandering states to remove Black majority districts is just representation Also Johnson: The lack of evidence of fraud in an election is sufficient evidence of a conspiracy in blue states.
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Jesse Eisinger
6 days ago
NEW: The DOJ was criminally investigating the companies of W. Va.'s MAGA Senator Jim Justice. Until then-DAG Todd Blanche's office shut it down.
@mtredden.bsky.social
& Avi Asher-Shapiro:
www.propublica.org/article/trum...
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The aftermath of this Los Angeles redistricting scandal: ⢠All three council members caught saying racist crap are now out of office ⢠Nithya Raman won reelection in 2024 despite their gerrymander ⢠LA voters approved an independent redistricting commission ⢠Now Raman could become LAās next mayor
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6 days ago
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Gillian Brockell
7 days ago
Yooooo remember a couple years ago when those three LA city council members were caught on tape saying a ton of insanely racist stuff and conspiring to gerrymander another council memberās district? That other council member was Nithya Raman. The voting bloc they were trying to split? Renters.
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OlĆŗfįŗ¹Ģmi O. TĆ”Ćwò
8 days ago
for reference and comparison: conservatively, the United States spent two-thirds of that figure in the *first week* of the war on Iran. it's genuinely difficult to overstate how many world-historical own goals US politics has accumulated over the past few decades
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I donāt know what itās going to take for enough Mormon voters to break with MAGA for Democrats to finally start winning Utah. But if a shift happens suddenly like in 2016, Republicans may regret fighting so hard to keep gerrymandering a 4-0 House map shutout instead of conceding one seat to Dems
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8 days ago
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Taniel
8 days ago
A conservative candidate in Indiana whose race is presently in a recount is combing votersā social media to try to challenge voters, a practice that state observers say is new & unusual:
www.indystar.com/story/news/p...
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Can a social media post nullify your vote? Indiana recount tests obscure law
In a recount request, Trump-backed state senate candidate Paula Copenhaver argues 11 people voted illegally under a seldom-enforced 1986 state law.
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2026/06/03/copenhaver-uses-social-media-posts-to-argue-votes-shouldnt-count/90275914007/
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mtsw
8 days ago
Ballot measures are a relief valve in states where the GOP has otherwise rigged elections to be unloseable via gerrymandered state legislative seats. They're getting rid of the practice where they can or just ignoring the results of referenda (as they are in florida)
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Edwin Eisendrath
9 days ago
The big primaries are mostly over, now the general election is kicking off. We'll talk about that, the attack on science & more on Saturday with: +
@cdelawalla.bsky.social
+
@nycjayjay.bsky.social
+
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
+
@laurarbelin.bsky.social
š¤³Stream 1-4 CT
heartlandsignal.com/wcpt820/
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A healthy democracy would automatically register all adult citizens to vote (unless they opt out) and provide every resident with a free national ID card so a driverās license is only necessary for driving
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9 days ago
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The Downballot
10 days ago
If Graham Platner were to drop his bid for
#MESen
, could Maine Democrats replace him on the November ballot? As Quinn
@yeargain.bsky.social
explains in a new piece, the potential window to do so is very small.
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What happens if Graham Platner drops out?
As controversies add up, Maine Democrats would face a tight timeline to replace Graham Platner on the ballot if he ended his campaign
https://guaranteedrepublics.substack.com/p/what-happens-if-graham-platner-drops
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Three Dems in June 9ās ranked-choice primary for governor support switching Maine to winner-take-all for the Electoral College if Nebraskaās GOP does it. Shenna Bellows, Hannah Pingree, and Troy Jackson have also urged their supporters to rank the other two. Fellow Dem Nirav Shah opposes the switch
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3 Democratic gubernatorial candidates say they are open to ending Maineās unique presidential election system
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that split their Electoral College votes rather than awarding the whole state to a single candidate.
https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/02/politics/elections/shenna-bellows-hannah-pingree-winner-take-all-electoral-college/
10 days ago
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Jeff Singer
11 days ago
Or as
stephenwolf.bsky.social
has demonstrated, Democrats can counter Republican gerrymandering AND respect the VRA.
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/u...
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Status of 2028 Dem efforts to redraw House maps: CO: 2026 ballot initiative effort. NY: Passed stage 1 of multi-year plan. MD, NJ: 2026 referendums planned. VA: Could undo court ruling in 2027. IL: Considering. MN, OR, WI: May depend on 2026 elections. WI Supreme Court may redraw if Dems canāt
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11 days ago
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BreakingāNew York Democrats have passed the first stage of a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map in 2028 and target 4 seats Republicans currently hold. Dems must pass it again next year and win a November 2027 referendum for it to take effect. Details below ā¬ļø
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11 days ago
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BreakingāNew York Democrats have passed the first stage of a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map in 2028 and target 4 seats Republicans currently hold. Dems must pass it again next year and win a November 2027 referendum for it to take effect. Details below ā¬ļø
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11 days ago
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Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio)
11 days ago
As bad and soul-killing as mid-decade gerrymandering was, the national median seat bias is actually a little better than it was in 2018.
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Lauren McGaughy
12 days ago
ICYMI: The top election official in Texas just announced her retirement, which will take effect less than four months before the stateās most closely watched election in a decade.
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/u...
#TXLEGE
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Top Texas Election Official to Resign, Months Before General Contest
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/02/us/texas-top-election-official-resigns.html
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