Today on the GD POLITICS pod: 🐀 What if every state gerrymandered to the max? 🗽 New York City mayoral race updates 😠 Voters' mood in 2025 w/ @geoffreyskelley.com www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-if-ev...

Our long, national nightmare is over. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections is back online. uselectionatlas.org

New TX map has 8 safe D seats. The other five Dem seats all become red-leaning: -Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas -Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33 -Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18

New Federal Fallout pod this morning featuring @geoffreyskelley.com Geoff previously was with Crystal Ball and 538 He goes over Virginia and New Jersey this year And looks ahead to redistricting and its potential impact on midterms podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Very excited to see which current “no” vote among Senate Rs flips to ensure passage of the BBB on Monday. Highly skeptical we’re gonna see another failure like the Obamacare skinny repeal in 2017.

This piece from @geoffreyskelley.com recounting Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran's come from behind GOP primary runoff victory 11 years ago today sure brings back memories. Cochran appealed to the state's large and heavily Democratic Black electorate to vote in a Republican contest, and it worked.

Using AP estimates on what's outstanding, there might be ~20k votes left in Richmond City, more than any other locality. Just how much better — or not — Stoney does among the outstanding votes in the city he leads could prove decisive in the LG primary result. #VAprimary

Virginia’s primary is on Tuesday. Looking ahead to November, 2025 could mark the 5th straight state election in which the same party swept all three statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor & attorney general. open.substack.com/pub/national...

The casual irrational confidence that you could move to South Carolina in 2025 and mount a strong challenge against Lindsey Graham in the 2026 #SCSen race. Laughable. www.politico.com/news/2025/06...

Waiting on #NJGov results and looking for something to read? Check out my look at how the Dem primary ended up so crowded and what that might say about the changing politics of the Garden State. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

Today is primary election day in New Jersey! @geoffreyskelley.com has a good preview: nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

Something to watch in New Jersey's primary: 6 Dems might win 10%+ in the gov primary, which would be a 1st in state history. Such a crowded race may result from weakened local party influence & abolishment of the “county line” on election ballots. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

Been playing with my kid, anyone got a tick-tock with the exact order of X/TruthSocial posts/public statements and reactions by Musk and Trump?

This is reasonable. And I thought it for many years. But Jennifer Allen's work on vaccine misinformation changed my mind. Headlines often misinform people because 1) most people don't click through and read stories, 2) misleading headlines don't get misinformation flags from social media companies.

If JD Scholten beats the odds and #IAsen Joni Ernst, it’ll be a windfall for Democrats in the Congressional Baseball Game. He’s spent the last two years pitching in Dutch professional baseball and for the indy team the Sioux City Explorers.

#IASen is definitely a stretch for Dems in 2026, but Ernst just decided to pour gasoline on the fire she started with her bungled statement at a townhall. That’s a decision that suggests she and/or her staff believe she’s safer than she really is.

The three Dem vacancies made it very slightly easier for the GOP, but the 3 Republican present/ abstentions would have likely gotten the GOP over the line even if Connolly, Grijalva and Turner were all still alive and there. This is too important for Trump.

Europa League champs! I will absolutely take it, no matter how ugly it was. #COYS

Most Congressional Republicans have pledged not to raise taxes, but some are considering a tax hike for their own budget deal. 85% have signed Americans for Tax Reform's no-tax pledge, down from 95% after the 2010 Tea Party election. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/in-a-world...

Hi all! Monday I will start my new job as Class Politics Reporter @thenewrepublic.bsky.social. I could not be more excited. I was honored to spend the last 3 years at 538. In March, ABC shuttered the publication. Over more than a decade, the site set a new standard for political journalism.

While everyone gets mad about college students using AI...I am extremely curious about this very vague survey cite in the NY Mag story

🎵thermostatic public opinion🎵

Can we not say that Trump “ruled out” a 2028 presidential run? It wasn’t an option. Not a constitutional one, anyway.

Beware of those ridings that say "206/207 polls reporting" or whatever. Advance and special (i.e., early and absentee) ballots count as a "poll," so those final drops could be game-changers.

Trump hasn’t abandoned his “Canada = 51st state” rhetoric. In February, I explored why Canadian statehood would be exceedingly weird historically because Canada would CLEARLY vote against the party pushing for statehood (Trump as head of the GOP). abcnews.go.com/538/trumps-p...

Are Canadians supposed to write in Trump’s name in every riding or something?

It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts! Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd And much more in this 🧵 below!

My latest post on Substack: What Wisconsin's election might say about what's to come in 2025 and 2026. Turnout practically mirrored a midterm, and trended higher in left-leaning places. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/what-wisco...

Around 2.4 million votes may be cast in Wisconsin, more than 50% of the voting-eligible population. To put that in perspective, that's higher turnout than in the 2016 SC race (46%), when BOTH parties also had competitive presidential primaries taking place on the same day!

While unlikely, were Dems to win FL-06 today, it would mark essentially the biggest flip by either party in a US House special election in the last 25 years, based on the previous presidential vote in the seat. My first post on my new Substack: nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/floridas-s...

Y’all, how can you truly be surprised by this after everything else? www.politico.com/news/2025/03...

When Meta started developing its flagship AI model, employees faced an ethical question, Alex Reisner writes. The program would need to be trained on a huge amount of high-quality writing to be competitive with products such as ChatGPT. Should they just pirate it? Read more: theatln.tc/1P6gPreS

Sometimes headline writers are just tired and figure, hey whatever. (From p. 4 of the Sept. 11, 1976, edition of the Deseret News.)

Nathaniel and his colleagues have done uncommonly clear eyed analysis about what data can and can't tell us about politics and elections. At a time when dara reliability is threatened (as @geoffreyvs.bsky.social wrote: abcnews.go.com/538/matters-...) that's hugely valuable.

Some good things do come to an end. 538/FiveThirtyEight came to an end today. My 6 years there were professionally and personally fulfilling beyond words. I want to thank all of my colleagues for making it an incredible experience and applaud all of their magnificent work.

85-90 years ago is not a long time in the grand scheme of things. The past is still very much relevant to the present. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/u...

"The public and private sector, companies large and small, and even the average person use government data to make decisions about program effectiveness, business prospects and life choices."

My latest for 538: Why it matters that Trump is deleting government data. Data disruptions could cause big issues in both the public and private sectors. abcnews.go.com/538/matters-...

With McConnell retiring, irrationally hopeful Dems will want Andy Beshear to run for #KYSen. Even if he did (unlikely), look at margins for popular ex-govs in recent Sen races where party is obv weaker: '24 Hogan (R-MD) -11.8 '20 Bullock (D-MT) - 10.0 '18 Bredesen (D-TN) -10.8

RFK's nomination advanced to the floor, Tulsi Gabbard confirmed. No surprise here. abcnews.go.com/538/trumps-c...

Shocked, SHOCKED that Senate Republicans are finding their way to yes on all of Trump's Cabinet nominees. abcnews.go.com/538/trumps-c...

Amistad (1997) is a good film but one thing always bugs me: It portrays Martin Van Buren as clueless about the case’s potential impact on domestic politics. Van Buren was arguably one of the greatest political operators in U.S. history and most certainly knew why the case was a big deal.

I took a deep dive into Trump’s executive order to limit birthright citizenship: the history, where the US fits in globally, the legal fight ahead, and the potential consequences if enacted. abcnews.go.com/538/make-tru...

Last time I saw someone salute like Elon Musk did today was in Charlottesville in August 2017.

Democrats aren't thrilled with Biden running again. But they do generally like him and approve of his job performance as president. So he will probably avoid facing a *serious* primary challenger in 2024. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-biden-probably-wont-get-a-serious-primary-challenger/

Sounds like Darren Bailey is going to challenge to Rep. Mike Bost in the IL-12 GOP primary. This map gives some geographical reasoning for Bailey’s decision. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/darren-bailey-expected-to-announce-primary-to-rep-mike-bost