Relevant stat, between the #TXsen news and today's #KY04 primary: Incumbent senators, reps, and governors whom Trump targeted for defeat in GOP primaries are 6-10 all-time.

Odd to do this now, when the #TXsen runoff has been, if anything, tightening, per the @fiftyplusone.news polling average. But this should sew things up for Paxton.

If it's Tuesday, it must be election day! Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania are all holding their primaries today.

Democratic Arizona AG Kris Mayes is suing to oust a Republican election official based on a pretty questionable interpretation of state law: www.votebeat.org/arizona/2026...

ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com.politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge.

I’m at #AAPOR, the annual pollster conference, and Andrew Mercer from Pew Research Center had a great proposal for a more accurate margin-of-error statistic called Margin of Total Error.

Upset brewing? With 30% of the vote counted in the GOP primary for Nebraska secretary of state, Scott Petersen is leading incumbent Bob Evnen 52–48%.

This is big. MO’s new gerrymander can stay in place for now despite signatures being filed for a ballot initiative to repeal it.

BIG: South Carolina's GOP-dominated state Senate just *rejected* a measure previously passed by the House that would allow the legislature to reconvene this year and redraw the state's lone majority-Black congressional district. It needed a two-thirds vote. x.com/JoeBReporter...

New Hampshire's long had one of the latest (non-presidential) primaries in the nation. Starting in 2028, though, it will move up to June. www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026...

BREAKING: SCOTUS acts immediately on Alabama redistricting, vacating earlier decisions blocking the 2023 map and sending cases back to the district court — over the objection of Sotomayor, joined by Kagan and Jackson. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...

If South Carolina redraws its congressional map, it would also mean pushing back the June 9 primary—something that election officials say would be difficult and expensive. www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/p...

Tickets are now on sale for the Congressional Baseball Game! June 10 at Nats Park. Proceeds go to DC-area charities: www.mlb.com/nationals/ti...

Note: Virginia's supreme court struck down map based on when Dems passed the amendment. This ends use of the map for 2026 for sure. Dems can do it for 2028, tho. They'd "just" have to keep legislature in 2027, pass bill again in January 2028, & then hold+win another April referendum.

Huge. This is worth 3-4 seats for Republicans—basically equivalent to their possible post-Callais gains in the Deep South.

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the Voting Rights Act. It wasn’t meant to protect the rights of minority *politicians.* It was meant to protect the rights of minority *voters.*

Notably, this lawsuit does not mention the Voting Rights Act.

Before Callais, there was a "sick elegance" to 2026's tit-for-tat redistricting, says @baseballot.bsky.social: -GOP in TX, then Dems CA -Dems in VA, then GOP in FL But post-Callais changes will help Republicans. The DDHQ Podcast analyzed the remaps & long-term redistricting implications.

Tennessee's governor has now signed into law the new congressional map, which is meant to lock in an all GOP congressional delegation and eliminates the Memphis-based majority-Black district.

The legislature has also passed a bill reopening candidate filing for Congress (which had closed) until May 15 so everyone can decide where to run.

It's all but official: Tennessee's legislature approves new congressional map that breaks up the state's lone Democratic-held seat around Memphis. Very likely outcome for this map will be a 9-0 GOP congressional delegation, up from 8-1. Old map vs. New map:

Here is the proposed map for Tennessee redistricting, as just sent out from the Republican Senate press office. #tnleg

Iowa has become the 14th state to share its unredacted voter roll with the Department of Justice. www.iowapublicradio.org/state-govern... The DOJ is suing 29 other states to force them to do so.

Court documents reveal that the Trump administration hasn't yet taken any steps to implement the executive order restricting mail voting. www.newsfromthestates.com/article/fede...

Tennessee Republicans, who gaveled in a special session yesterday, are having trouble agreeing on a new congressional map. www.newschannel5.com/news/tenness...

The AP has called it for Shreve now.

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin has won the Republican primary in #OH09. He'll face Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) for the 2nd cycle in a row, but this time, Kaptur's seat is Trump+11 after redistricting.

8 Indiana state senators who voted against mid-decade redistricting last year faced primary challenges tonight. So far, 5 have lost, and only 1 has won.

The AP has called the #IN04 GOP primary for Rep. Jim Baird, but his performance is also pretty uninspired at 61%. I think one of the most interesting metrics this cycle won't be how many incumbents lose primaries (it'll still be pretty low), but how many get under, say, 60%.

The AP has called the #IN05 GOP primary for Rep. Victoria Spartz, but she turned in another mediocre primary performance. She's currently leading an unheralded challenger 60–40%.

In a surprise, Rep. Jefferson Shreve is barely holding on in the GOP primary for #IN06. He's up 53–47% with 62% of the estimated vote counted.

The establishment-backed candidates for Ohio secretary of state have easily won their primaries. It'll be Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) vs. former state House Minority Leader Allison Russo (D).

New from me: Checking in on the state of redistricting after Callais and Florida's new congressional map. www.votebeat.org/national/202...

A new analysis finds that requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote would affect Dems and Reps equally at the national level—but might be enough to turn Nevada and New Mexico specifically red. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Alabama's calling a special session to reschedule its primary in case the Supreme Court strikes down its 5 🔴, 2 🔵 congressional map (which would revert things to the old 6 🔴, 1 🔵 map).

Georgia, unlike Louisiana, will have House primaries proceed as normal this month and won't redraw its map for 2026. But AJC says both parties anticipate Kemp, who leaves office in January due to term limits, will call a special session while he's still governor to pass a new map for 2028.

Related to this, I still very much miss Google reader, where you could read and share things and also have conversations with friends about the pieces you read! Also linked to buzz. Completely underrated platforms

Interesting—LA plans to postpone the House primaries but not primaries for other races, like #LAsen. www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/...

The #MEsen Democratic primary will now be a coronation for *checks notes* Graham Platner.

Shades of 2020—when Louisiana was the first state to postpone its primary due to the novel coronavirus.

Here's everything we know about the Supreme Court's big Voting Rights Act decision today. It looks like the impact is mostly long-term, but I'm watching to see if any states try to redistrict based on this. www.votebeat.org/national/202...

Louisiana's gonna have to redraw its congressional map (tricky because the primary is in 2.5 weeks!). But no other state's map is illegal under this decision. Other states may WANT to redraw now, but it's so late in the year—it's gonna be very hard for most of them.

The Supreme Court has ruled in Callais v. Louisiana. It's a 6-3 ruling along ideological lines that throws out Louisiana's congressional map as a racial gerrymander.

Something to watch: Three Republican senators voted against the DeSantis map in committee today; four more would need to vote no on the floor, which seems unlikely though at least an outside possibility, in part given bad blood between the legislature and the governor.

ICYMI, I took an early look at this fall's races for the top election official in each state (usually—but not always!—the secretary of state): www.votebeat.org/national/202...

In his letter submitting the new FL congressional map, DeSantis essentially argues that the VRA is unconstitutional, and using that as the main excuse to redraw FL’s map. Jumping the gun on Callais a bit but he may very well end up being right. x.com/FBSaunders/s...

Republicans have unveiled a new congressional map of Florida that they want to pass this week. The map's goal is to deliver *four* new seats to the GOP. (Meaning the GOP's goal here is a delegation that's 24-4, compared to 20-8 now.) Via Fox News: www.foxnews.com/politics/ron...

This event is being held at the Washington Hilton—the site of Reagan’s attempted assassination in 1981.

anyway if you ever wonder why sportsbooks push parlays so hard, well

It's hard to reduce the impact of mid-decade redistricting to a single number of flips, because a lot of the movement (e.g., in NC and OH) was just to make seats slightly redder/bluer. You're better off thinking about it probabilistically.