New job alert! Today I started as the new managing editor of @votebeat.org, a nonprofit news site that covers election administration and voting rights issues.

Rep. Jodey Arrington, who chairs the powerful House Budget Committee, unexpectedly announces he will not seek reelection after five terms representing dark red West Texas in Congress. Arrington is 53, an age when many aspiring politicians still want to *reach* the House.

LEAD CHANGE: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Harrell by... 91 votes. That's out of ≈270K! Seattle counted roughly 39K ballots today, & they broke in favor of Wilson by 11.4%, erasing the entirety of the incumbent's lead.

Breaking News: The Supreme Court said that it would hear a challenge to a Mississippi law that could upend mail-ballot rules in many states before the midterm elections.

I wrote this in 2018. This was never going to end any other way.

Clase made $4.5 million last year. Ortiz made $782,600. Something doesn’t add up here.

Emmanuel Clase, a fugitive from the law!?

If a DC sports team is actually good, they’ll get my money. Nats, take note.

Trump's approval rating has fallen the most among the voters who are newest to his coalition: people of color and young people. Good article from Mary Radcliffe (who is a must-read): marywitha4.substack.com/p/trumps-app...

Ranked-choice voting tabulations have been run in Minneapolis, and incumbent Mayor Jacob Frey has defeated democratic socialist Omar Fateh 53–47%.

Yesterday was a notable example of polls actually overestimating *Democrats*! @fiftyplusone.news polling avg ➡️ result #VAgov: D+11 ➡️ D+15 #NJgov: D+6 ➡️ D+13 It’s really hard to predict polling error in advance!

Democrats flipped 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. They'll go into the next session with a 64-36 majority—their biggest since 1989.

In the race for Seattle mayor, moderate incumbent Bruce Harrell leads progressive Katie Wilson 53–46% in the first batch of votes. WA votes by mail, so more batches will drop in the coming days.

First-choice votes for mayor of Minneapolis are as follows: Jacob Frey (Dem incumbent) 42% Omar Fateh (Dem socialist challenger) 32% DeWayne Davis (D) 14% Jazz Hampton (D) 10% Minneapolis uses ranked-choice voting, and RCV tabulations start tomorrow.

If you're a Republican looking for good news tonight: Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) appears to have held on for reelection, defeating Seth Koslow (D) 54–46% in a county Trump carried only 52–48%.

There was also a special election today for the safely Democratic #TX18. This was a jungle primary, and no one got a majority, so there will be a runoff on a TBD date between Christian Menefee (D) and Amanda Edwards (D).

The Albuquerque mayor's race is going to a runoff. Incumbent Tim Keller (D) received 36% of the first-round votes, and Darren White (R) received 31%.

BREAKING: Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield made history Tuesday night, Nov. 4, becoming the city's first woman mayor in an election she led from start to finish.

Also tonight: Voters in Maine—who rejected a background checks ballot measure in 2016—enacted a "red flag" gun safety law by passing Question 2, 63–37%.

BREAKING: Democrat Jay Jones was elected Virginia attorney general after text message scandal, unseating GOP incumbent Jason Miyares. Follow AP for live updates.

Wow—the AP very quickly projects that Prop 50 has passed in California. It currently leads 64-36 with 30% of the vote counted. CA will get a new, gerrymandered congressional map.

New York City voters have narrowly rejected a ballot measure that would've moved city elections to even-numbered years (if Dem lawmakers had also amended NY's constitution). It could've significantly boosted average turnout & reduced demographic disparities (Mamdani's term would've been unaffected)

A big result: Maine voters have rejected the conservative ballot measure that'd have restricted ballot access. The measure was going to impose voter ID, and restrict mail voting significantly. It lost easily, a year before the crucial midterms there. Our coverage: boltsmag.org/maine-questi...

RESULT: Zohran Mamdani will be the next mayor of New York City. The Democratic nominee, and democratic socialist lawmaker, defeats former Governor Andrew Cuomo for the second time this year, after winning against him in the primary.

The AP has called #NJgov for Mikie Sherrill (D). With 62% reporting, she leads Jack Ciattarelli (R) 57-42%, so she looks like she’s going to soundly beat her polls.

Pennsylvania voters retain three state Supreme Court justices, preserving Democrats' 5-2 majority 👇 www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...

With 61% of the vote counted in #VAAG, Jones (D) leads Miyares (R) 51–49%—and there are still plenty of votes to count in Dem-leaning areas.

The AP has called #VALG for Ghazala Hashmi (D). With 60% of the vote counted, she leads 53–46%.

The AP now says Loudoun County is virtually done counting. Spanberger is up 28%. Jones is up 19%. (This was McAuliffe +11, Harris +15.) Another, smaller county that's nearly done: red Westmoreland. Earle-Sears is up 9%. Mirayes is up 15%. (This was Youngkin +22, Trump +14.)

With 18% of the vote reporting in Virginia: -Abigail Spanberger (D) leads by 16 points in #VAgov -Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads by 12 points in #VALG -Jay Jones (D) leads by 8 points in #VAAG

A Chester County (PA) judge has ordered that polling hours are extended to 10 PM tonight for all voters, helping to ensure that voters who were affected by today's poll book printing errors will not be disenfranchised. Post 8pm, voters will vote on provisional ballots. Dems/GOP agreed on this.

I have calculated a set of county-level benchmarks for following the statewide elections in VA, NJ, GA and PA tonight. This is smarter than just watching votes roll in because it helps account for unreported areas. Will update the spreadsheet as votes come in. Link: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

I made a spreadsheet for tracking which party overperforms in Virginia's House of Delegates elections tonight. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

TONIGHT: REVENGE OF THE NERDS -- GD POLITICS @ 7PM ET @baseballot.bsky.social @rubashkin.bsky.social @lennybronner.com @erincovey.bsky.social

Not @galendruke.bsky.social still sending emails to my FiveThirtyEight email address!

Registering predictions for tonight: It's pretty clear from polling that Dems will win most of the high-profile races: #VAgov, #NYCmayor, CA Prop 50. The fundamentals point to a Dem win downballot too: PA Supreme Court, VA House of Delegates, GA PSC, etc.

Happy Election Day! As I do every odd year, I made a list of every election taking place today, AFAIK. If you live in one of these places and are eligible, go vote! baseballot.substack.com/p/a-complete...

Much of the Graham Platner discourse has been about his ability to bring younger men and disaffected voters back into the Democratic fold. But that's all felt a little divorced from the reality of what it takes to beat Susan Collins. I explore how she keeps winning and what that means for ME-Sen.

As best I can tell, 38 states are holding elections tomorrow. Ten have statewide races, and 28 are hosting local elections. Did I miss any?

It's good that the NYT is covering other cities' mayoral races and I guess you have to get people's attention somehow, but... these headlines, man.

Details here on how exit polling/poll of election voters! For the in-the-weeds details on methodology, see: ssrs.com/wp-content/u...

DOJ is sending election monitors to California and New Jersey tomorrow, but before you react, read @jessicahuseman.bsky.social: www.votebeat.org/2025/11/01/j...

Looking for young Democratic politicians you can actually get excited about? My old chum @kaleighrogers.bsky.social and I came up with a list for NY Mag: nymag.com/intelligence...

By cWPA, last night had three of the 11 biggest plays of all-time. The game-ender is fourth, the only out in the top 15.

In congratulating the Dodgers, Trump passes on a dig at Canada—but gets in a shoutout to the owners ahead of some contentious CBA negotiations.

Mookie has now played almost as many total games for the Dodgers (807) as he did for the Red Sox (815). And he's played way more playoff games for LA (70-21). Unless he suddenly retires to join the pro bowling tour, it's gonna be clear by career's end which hat he will have on his HoF plaque. ☹️

Mookie Betts has now won the World Series four times (and it still isn’t enough).