The Virginia Department of Elections has posted info about the redistricting referendum Early voting starts in 1 month Looks like full speed ahead unless Virginia Supreme Court tells them otherwise Some technical legal stuff in next post about GOP lawsuit for those interested

Lucas single-handedly destroying Youngkin’s legacy projects (sports teams in NoVa, suburban GOP that can win) was remarkable to watch

so funny to see republicans complaining about this as if they have not been pulling this shit for 15 years.

Virginia Republicans elect a new Chairman with Jeff Ryer He previously served as a spokesman for Trump’s 2024 Virginia campaign He faces a tough task as Virginia GOP tries to rebuild His first task will be a redistricting referendum if GOP legal challenges don’t work

Most of NOVA is west of I-95 so this would just create 2 blue states

By my back of napkin math, VA6 now has at least 2x as many students as the next competitive district in the country.

8 Winners and 8 Losers (and 8 Mixed) from the New Virginia Redistricting Map bluevirginia.us/2026/02/8-wi... h/t @samshirazi.bsky.social @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

Maybe not great from an optics standpoint But the legislature can simply change the law These provisions were not part of the Virginia Constitution That’s the power of having a trifecta Which Virginia Dems will likely have for 4 years

Shannon Taylor will be running in VA-1 if old map sticks around Or VA-5 if new map is implemented Big question is what Rob Wittman and John McGuire do? Wittman probably retires in new map and might run for Governor in 2029? McGuire doesn’t really good options under new map

The proposed new VA-10 basically looks like the old VA-10 from last decade Back then it was part of GOP gerrymander Now it is part of Dem gerrymander Shows shifting coalitions in Virginia Although Dems probably will be able to hold it rest of the decade h/t @statenavigate.org

[email protected] Launches Re-Election Campaign for Virginia’s (New) 11th Congressional District; The current VA11 is a compact Fairfax seat; the new VA11 stretches from Chain Bridge to Rockingham and Shenandoah counties, but is still solid blue bluevirginia.us/2026/02/rep-...

New Federal Fallout on Virginia Dems proposed map They go 10-1 by cracking NOVA Should hold for 2026 but surprised VA-2 wasn’t bluer GOP incumbents in tough spot and could see interesting primary in VA-9 But first VA Supreme Court and voters have to sign off… podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Wow it happened Progressive Analilia Mejia might pull off upset against former Congressman Tom Malinowski This is Dem primary for seat vacated by Mikie Sherrill Shows there could be some upsets brewing in Dem primaries in 2026

VA-2 was perhaps biggest surprise Barely got bluer although Dems will be favored in 2026 Luria is from Norfolk, but didn’t get any of it Would have made sense to connect Norfolk naval base with Virginia Beach Dean of delegation Bobby Scott saw very little change

Blacksburg and Radford are in the same district But can’t believe they didn’t include Christiansburg VA-6 would have been made marginally bluer Interactive map link below

NOVA residents (They will still vote Yes in the referendum by Assad margins)

Follow Sam for allll the Virginia deets tonight folks.

NEW: Virginia Dems have unveiled their proposed 10-1 congressional map in response to GOP gerrymanders in other states. It targets 4 Republicans & has 10 Harris seats. It will be used in 2026 contingent upon an April 21 voter referendum. Interactive map+data: davesredistricting.org/join/20e0049...

NOVA got cracked like an earthquake hit That’s how Virginia Dems get to 10-1 Beyer and Walkinshaw taking one for the team as their seats obliterated Hampton Roads and Richmond area relatively minor changes College town snake ended up happening in Western Virginia

Hot take on proposed Virginia map Winners: Luria Scott McClellan Taylor Perriello Subramanyam Vindman Mixed: Beyer Walkinshaw Griffith Kiggans Helmer Losers: Wittman Cline McGuire

🚨🚨🚨New Virginia map is out Possible frontrunners for each district VA-1 Vindman VA-2 Luria VA-3 Scott VA-4 McClellan VA-5 Taylor VA-6 Perriello VA-7 Unclear? VA-8 Beyer? VA-9 Unclear? VA-10 Subramanyam VA-11 Walkinshaw?

Virginia Dems right now

"Tomorrow...Gov. Abigail Spanberger will sign bills to set referendums on proposed amendments to the Virginia Constitution — to protect reproductive rights, marriage equality, and automatic voting rights restoration — and Virginia’s redistricting process." bluevirginia.us/2026/02/repo...

Virginia Dems banking on 10-1 for 2026 and 2028 Could lose seats in 2030 if Dem President and red wave But House probably lost either way at that point Then maps are redrawn anyway due to census Goal is to last through the Trump years

More details on Dems proposed Virginia map Honestly ready for the actual maps tbh A major redraw that will look like a gerrymander Dems banking on base being so upset with Trump doesn’t matter Could also see some Dem incumbents seeing primaries such as Beyer in VA-8

Details trickling in about new map from Virginia Dems VA-2 will see some tinkering around edges New central and western Virginia college town district New NOVA seat going down to central Virginia Hopefully get actually map soon

Virginia Dems appear to be in agreement on a 10-1 map Or “peace in the valley” in General Assembly speak The proposed map should be out within next 24 hours This could result in a net pick up of 4 House seats during the midterms

"Enrolled Bill communicated to Governor on February 04, 2026" bluevirginia.us/2026/02/wher...

Pretty unusual for Court of Appeals to send something directly to Virginia Supreme Court But highlights the importance of redistricting case from timing and constitutional standpoint Might as well cut to chase as losing side would appeal ruling anyways

Some of these descriptions leave me wondering if Don Beyer could retire and they will carve up his seat to make room for new ones in northern Virginia

Virginia redistricting alleged backroom maneuvering Seems like map will be closer to 10-1 But members of legislature might want to have a shot at running Normal legislative dynamics of State Senate and House of Delegates tension in play punchbowl.news/article/camp...

Anne Holton attended Richmond Public Schools when her father was Governor A different time when Richmond and Virginia was grappling with how to integrate its schools Now she has been appointed to serve on the Richmond School Board

Virginia GOP will have this issue if there is a redistricting referendum It will essentially become referendum on Trump The nuances of redistricting will not really be the issue Dem base will be super motivated GOP will try to get its base out, but will be uphill climb

Wow! @samshirazi.bsky.social

Meanwhile in Virginia Dem challengers out raise GOP incumbents in VA-1 VA-2 VA-5 and VA-6 Dems have more COH in VA-5 and VA-6 too We’ll see how redistricting shapes up But reminds me of some GOP delegates not taking races seriously last year Dems ended up flipping 13 seats

Yep. What if Democrats' gains with college-educated whites in recent years turn out to be enduring but Republicans' gains with Hispanic voters were transitory. That's how you get a Democratic realignment.

4Q25 Fundraising Reports: Massive $$$ Lead for Sen. Mark Warner; Republican Reps. Rob Wittman, Jen Kiggans, John McGuire, Ben Cline All Outraised By Their Leading Dem Challengers bluevirginia.us/2026/02/4q25...

ICYMI Dems easily flip Trump +17% State Senate seat in Forth Worth area Huge swing with suburban and Hispanic voters Similar to what happened last year in NJ and VA State Senate seats in Texas are size of Congressional district so lots of people voting

Dems on the verge of flipping a State Senate in Texas Not staying up for the official call bc vote count has been super slow But this is big district and equivalent size of Congressional seat No small feat for Dems to even be competitive, let alone ahead

We are very much in upset territory in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election. Early vote just dropped: Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.2% Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.8% Given that the early vote usually makes up a good chunk of the final vote, I think the Dems will win this one.

Video: Fmr. VA Del. Tim Anderson, a conservative Republican, and 2025 VA GOP Lt. Gov. nominee John Reid agree that there WILL be a 4/21 referendum on the VA redistricting amendment (in other words, they're not impressed with the Tazewell judge's ruling). bluevirginia.us/2026/01/virg...

"I spent some time digging into a few sources. I believe what I found strengthens that view considerably....The April 21 referendum will likely proceed...I'm even more confident that reversal is more likely than not." - @KFordCB9 bluevirginia.us/2026/01/anal... cc: @samshirazi.bsky.social

A lot of conservative media focus on Virginia before Spanberger has even signed any laws Dems are likely to have a trifecta through at least 2029 The earliest possible GOP trifecta is likely 2032 That is how deep a hole Virginia GOP is right now

Looks like Virginia Dems may delay release of their proposed map My sense is this more about final lines Lots of different stakeholders have to weigh in and sign off Don’t think it’s about legal challenge as they seem confident VA Supreme Court will rule for them

Honestly can’t tell if it’s a bit at this point

Been slammed with work and having the kids home due to snow. So, haven't had a chance to digest this. But I've got to say that the implication that Hurley sped up the opinion to beat action by the general assembly is odd, to say the least. (1/2) cardinalnews.org/2026/01/29/t...

Would have liked to see all the Virginia ballot questions polled but I'll take it - guessing marriage equality probably passes as well in this sample

The poll's wording, as we all saw in California's redistricting question last year, matters a LOT. Here's how CNU asked the question. www.virginiascope.com/wp-content/u...

My hot take on Virginia redistricting referendum 51% support in this poll is close to close to Harris 2024 number in Virginia Hard to imagine many Harris voters voting No Also Dems will likely have enthusiasm advantage Legal case might be only way for GOP to stop it

New CNU Wason poll of Virginia Redistricting Referendum 51% Support 43% Oppose Reproductive Rights Referendum Support 67% Oppose 28% Voting Rights Restoration Support 64% Oppose 30% Trump Approval Disapprove 62% Approve 34%