Sharing one of my favorite Virginia election facts The party that has won VA-2 has been the majority party in the House every election since 2008 If that holds in 2026, would make it 10 straight elections

Jumping on for a quick take Virginia Supreme Court was put in a difficult spot 4-3 decision shows a divided Court Half of Virginia would be upset no matter what happened Now Virginia will have 2 of most important House races Better to focus on that than dwell on opinion

Quick update Taking a break from posting and podcasting for now It’s been a great experience and enjoyed interacting with so many people But also a lot to balance and it’s a good time to step back I know everyone will keep things going and I’m still in Arlington so hit me up

The good news for Virginia GOP? They have flip opportunities in 2027 The bad news for Virginia GOP? Very difficult to even come close to a majority in House of Delegates Best hope is to narrow the gap And then see it political environment changes by 2029

Folks I’ll respect whatever decision the Virginia Supreme Court comes to It’s a tricky issue of Virginia state law Reasonable minds can come to different conclusions I’m giving my personal thoughts based on what I’m seeing Only people who know what will happen are 7 Justices

Maureen Edobor: “Making Sense of the Supreme Court of Virginia Oral Argument in the Redistricting Case” electionlawblog.org?p=155707

There are 2 possibilities 1. Virginia Supreme Court wants to issue full opinion and won’t rush something 2. This is shadow docket equivalent and may give hints about final ruling My money is on #1 given they let referendum go forward Would be consistent with 1 final opinion

Good point by @samshirazi.bsky.social re: the potential for an incumbent US House Republican (Ben Cline?) potentially running against Morgan Griffith in VA09. As for VA07, also would add JP Cooney as a serious candidate in addition to the ones Sam mentions. bluevirginia.us/2026/04/base...

The text of Virginia Constitution is important The amendment process is often summarized as there needs to be an election in between passage in General Assembly The text says “referred to the General Assembly at its first regular session held after the next general election”

Think everywhere is pretty much 100% reported now Yes expanded its margin with the final votes counted 3.36% margin of victory and over 100K votes Official certification is pending final ruling from Virginia Supreme Court

Fmr. VA Del. Tim Anderson is a right-wing Republican, but this is actually a solid summary of the arguments yesterday to the VA Supreme Court... bluevirginia.us/2026/04/audi... cc: @samshirazi.bsky.social

Florida map is unlikely to be a dummymader In that Florida GOP will still be better off than if they kept current map But that doesn’t mean they will gain all that they wanted this cycle And Dems could still net gain from redistricting war Thank you for coming to my TED talk

Provisional votes are being added in Virginia Yes won Loudoun provisionals with 64% These are mostly same-day registrations and low propensity voters Harris only got 48% in Loudoun provisionals in 2024 (Spanberger got 71%) Shows shifts since 2024 despite close overall vote

Important to note Florida also has a state constitutional provision against gerrymandering But there will not be a referendum like in California and Virginia There is 60% threshold for passage so could fail But Florida GOP doesn’t seem to think courts will intervene

Florida GOP has also released their map today Looks like trying to counter Virginia Not sure if it will hold up in a 2026 blue leaning environment But redistricting battle could now be more about 2030 tbh So not just about this cycle

One final hot take on Virginia Supreme Court oral argument The majority of Justices didn’t say much 2 of the Justices asked a lot of questions Those 2 seem open to rule against referendum Possible other 5 leaning towards upholding Other 2 asking questions to sway rest

The main issue Virginia Supreme Court focused on is an intervening election Essentially did the Dems pass the referendum too close to the 2025 election That’s the most unique aspect of this specific process compared to past referendums Likely issue that decides whole thing

My initial take on Virginia Supreme Court oral arguments Some Justices don’t view Yes vote as determinative and have technical questions about process This was expected and what their previous order said Still need 4 out of 7 Justices to get a majority either way

Oral arguments begin at 9 in the Virginia redistricting case!

Also wouldn’t read too much into oral arguments It will give us clues into the court’s thinking But judges will test lawyers on both sides Famously Obamacare looked like was going down after oral argument Although redistricting upheld as a tax would be an interesting outcome

Tomorrow morning: Virginia Supreme Court Hears Case on Redistricting Measure bluevirginia.us/2026/04/anot...

The Virginia Supreme Court oral argument is now CSPAN official Shows the national implications of a very specific state law case Link to watch: www.youtube.com/live/uTh3MPn...

"Virginia Supreme Court looking through the law to figure out how to avoid ruling on redistricting" - @samshirazi.bsky.social bluevirginia.us/2026/04/anot...

Richmond Circuit Court rules for Dems in redistricting case related to compactness This is rare Sunday ruling and separate from Tazewell case Basically won’t stop map based on district shapes Ultimately VA Supreme Court will rule on redistricting issues www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/u...

Scary scenes at the WHCD Hope everyone is safe and thank you to law enforcement on the scene

Given it’s in the news I once went down a Falklands War rabbit hole Such a random and fascinating conflict

The conflict with Iran is in a tough spot Not quite war and not quite peace War would be hurting the regime Peace would lower oil prices Right now neither is happening Instead oil continues to be around $100 per barre

The Redistricting Amendment Passed by 3 Points. Now, on Monday, It’s “Next Stop: Virginia Supreme Court”; Some thoughts on what might happen next... bluevirginia.us/2026/04/the-... h/t @samshirazi.bsky.social

The main proposal to deal with this problem is giving parts of NOVA back to DC Even if Arlington and Alexandria were returned, the referendum still would have passed Political winds are tough, but doesn’t make sense to give up on such a populated area cardinalnews.org/2026/04/24/r...

New Federal Fallout pod on the next stop in Virginia redistricting The Virginia Supreme Court will be forced to make a ruling Both sides feel confident in their legal positions Will they overturn the results or will they defer to the voters? We will find out podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Wealthy suburban voters in Albemarle probably didn’t love the concept of gerrymandering Yes underperformed Harris there Something to keep in mind as we look at general election Don’t expect that to happen in November

Eastern Loudoun being that blue is telling me South Asian and Muslim voters swinging hard back to Dems Any gains GOP made in 2024 with those voters seems to be gone Similar story with Hispanics around Manassas and Woodbridge in PWC

Delegate Sam Rasoul opts against a run in the new VA-6 This will be most competitive seat this year in Virginia under new maps But Dems still favored to pick it up in November Tom Perriello and Beth Macy top Dem contenders

Another data point for Special Election truthers GOP over performance in HD-98 special previewed a close referendum I’m guessing this district voted roughly this way in referendum too

Based on What We Know Now, Who’s Running in the NEW Virginia U.S. House Districts?; Also, some thoughts on who the favorites are.... bluevirginia.us/2026/04/base...

First moderately-sized locality to report provisionals is Spotsylvania (No +10 overall, No +22 on Election Day) A little under 300 provisionals broke Yes +9

Legal issues often come down to framing There are technical legal ?s in Virginia redistricting But majorities in General Assembly approved referendum twice Then majority of voters approved it Does VA Supreme Court focus on big picture or the details? That might decide case

I analyzed turnout by race and Hispanic ethnicity in Virginia's redistricting amendment vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/how-did-vi...

Observations held up pretty well Honestly Virginia GOP did better than expected 2025 was probably low point Will make 2027 General Assembly races more interesting Still expect Dems to maintain majorities But Governor midterms can be challenging as Glenn Youngkjn found out

Virginia Supreme Court has about a month to rule Congressional filing deadline is May 26 Expecting a ruling before then Candidates need to know if they are running in old or new districts I’m guessing they used time during referendum to think about issue

@samshirazi.bsky.social will join us Friday as well! We will talk about the YES campaign and the win!

Reminder Virginia has 3 more referendums on the November ballot Adding language to Virginia constitution: - Protect right to abortion - Remove ban on Same Sex marriage - Restore voting rights to those convicted of felonies once they serve their sentence Expect all 3 to pass

The polarization is not good for Virginia All parts of the Commonwealth are connected From the hallowed grounds of Arlington National Cemetery to the hills of Appalachia From the shores of the Chesapeake to the bends of the Shenandoah Let us work to come together

Virginia GOP incumbents are in tough spot But seats might be competitive in 2030 and will be redrawn after that Could go down with ship this year Then run again in more favorable environment Cline, McGuire, and Kiggans could do that Wittman could run for Governor in 2029

Rural GOP turnout was impressive, especially in SWVa and the Shenandoah Valley. But turnout will only get you so far in a state that leans D. They needed to persuade a lot of Harris voters. That didn't happen.

The Virginia GOP legal challenges continue Looks like the same judge in Tazewell county that ruled for GOP before continues to rule for GOP Ultimately Virginia Supreme Court will make final call on state legal issues

Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Redistricting Referendum April 2026 bluevirginia.us/2026/04/poli...

Virginia GOP did good job getting their voters out But they were digging out of a 15% hole in the Governor’s race Made up a lot of that with turnout and persuasion But ultimately couldn’t get margins they needed in the blue parts of Virginia

Video: After Passage of Redistricting Amendment, Del. @guzman4virginia.bsky.social Announces Campaign for Congress in the New VA-07; "An immigrant, mom, union member, and social worker who is ready to fight back against Trump’s attacks on her community" bluevirginia.us/2026/04/vide...

“Virginia Dems tapping the roof of NOVA This baby can handle anything” But there is a risk of getting too dependent on one part of Virginia A swing away for whatever reason could lead to another 2021 Something to keep in mind if political winds shift by 2029