It’s pretty wild that Virginia is going to hit over 500K early votes by the end of this week And there is over 3 weeks left Plus most satellite locations have not yet opened up Could always slow down But much higher turnout than I had been expecting so far

Hard to do worse than a 15% loss.

Virginia does not have party registration But L2 models party ID based on voter history and demographics This looks roughly in line with 2025, maybe tad redder Obviously don’t know how people are voting Likely No is doing better than Earle-Sears IMO but hard to know how much

Exciting Federal Fallout pod with @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social from @statenavigate.org back on He goes over the Redistricting referendum and why it could be close Also hear his take on early vote And early details about a poll they will conduct in Virginia podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Honestly any pollster that tries to pull nonsense like this should be called out publicly. Just total clownery.

There have been some pessimistic tea leaves in early voting for the VA referendum, but that does not mean that there aren't also optimistic ones as well. Still, there is no room for complacency. Democrats want a solid win here as a bulwark against any VA Supreme Court decision.

holy loaded question Batman

Really priming people to say No There is still 30! undecided Basically getting to point that polls have to actually ask question on ballot Otherwise really no point to poll “testing messaging”

Mail ballots are keeping Yes in the early vote game at this initial stage They make up roughly 1/3 of all ballots so far Probably going roughly 2-1 Yes Over 400K have been sent out mainly through permanent absentee list Will become smaller part of early vote towards the end

Lots of media stories based on early, spotty information; we'll get a much better read on how the redistricting amendment is doing after 4/11, when these big "blue" jurisdictions (finally) open satellite locations and Saturday early voting bluevirginia.us/2026/03/vide... h/t @samshirazi.bsky.social

Anything can happen, but basically where I’m at too Still lot of range in single digits 2017 was technically single digits, but 9 point Dem win was blue wave 2021 was 2 point GOP win was red wave 2025 style landslide is more of an anomaly in Virginia

Normally there is initial surge, then dip, then final surge in early voting This time, Virginia early voting has not lost steam All points to high turnout But soon 2025 comparisons will be hard until the end bc satellite locations opening later this time

Florida Dems have good night with special elections Looking like flips in Trump 2024 State Senate and House seats Virginia GOP had rare good performance last week in HD-98 Could have been an anomaly or redistricting referendum is separate from national environment We’ll see…

Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf might be “last man standing” Someone with enough pull with different parts of the regime Not too hardline to refuse negotiation with U.S. Not too reformist to not be trusted by IRGC But very much would not be a change in overall nature of regime

U.S. could not allow straight of Hormuz to remain closed Military option was always going to be costly and difficult A negotiated end would be much more likely to immediately fix issue But that’s why the regime closed it in the first place as its main leverage to end the war

The Loudoun GOP "fired" their Chair, Scott Pio, after Abigail Spanberger won Loudoun County last November by a massive 65%-35% landslide (and after Kamala Harris won it 56%-40% in November 2024) bluevirginia.us/2026/03/sund...

People following me for a long time remember when I first posted about this out Honestly still respect the hustle by Tom Davis “Hate the game, not the player”

The asymmetric challenge of the war U.S./Israel have diminishing returns as fewer main targets to take out Regime has exponential returns as longer energy markets disturbed, bigger impact Doesn’t necessarily mean war will end, but shows why regime isn’t willing to back down

Bluer areas of Virginia are picking-up voting: As of Monday, votes cast in the 5-GOP held districts were 60% of all votes cast so far (vs 40% in 6 Dem-held districts). As of today, the gap has shrunk, with 55% in those GOP districts (Most of votes cast since Monday have been in the Dem districts.)

Okay to all yall who dmed me about this please breathe a little 🤪

As @samshirazi.bsky.social had mentioned would happen, there were A LOT of mail ballots still coming in and the GOP's overperformance in VA was literally cut in half. Now only a 5% overperformance and basically identical to 2020 results here. Good stuff!

Ah — the margin in this special election stood at 25% on Tuesday, but it now sits at 19%. Trump won it by 15%.

The final mail ballots were added for Virginia’s HD-98 Margin narrowed to 19% GOP win Still a GOP over performance compared to 2024 About 5% so not as dramatic as Election Night Disproportionate late mail bc of shorter early voting for special Handful of provisionals remain

Anyone interested in following Virginia politics and/or elections needs to follow @samshirazi.bsky.social.

Pace of Virginia early voting has not slowed down Over 300K votes after 2 weeks Only a little behind pace in 2025 That will probably change soon as satellite locations open later this year But not be low turnout election I’m guessing around 3M total votes

Today is the first day of Spring It also marks the Persian New Year or Nowruz An ancient tradition celebrated by Iranians of all backgrounds Normally a time to celebrate with family and mark renewal This year is different, but the hope for a better future endures

Falls Church turnout is slightly higher compared to the same time in the last election, and that election is 2nd only to a presidential in terms of turnout. Many Fairfax voters have come here because there isn't a vote center close to them open yet.

Every good breakdown as always from @samshirazi.bsky.social.

The last 10 days of April 21 Virginia redistricting referendum will be critical Most satellite voting locations don’t open until the first Saturday of early voting: April 11 Dems will really need to crank out the early votes during that window Shorter time frame than last year

We are near the 20 day mark of the war The economic pressure to end the war is increasing The regime is taking losses and feeling the pain too But it’s still executing its plan of disrupting global energy market The questions is who folds first and under what circumstances

Seeing some handwringing over the Virginia redistricting referendum after the VA GOP overperformed in a special election last night. @samshirazi.bsky.social calmly breaks it all down. IMO…I hope VA Dems are nervous. I have no tolerance for complacency. samshirazi.substack.com/p/hd-98-spec...

New Federal Fallout pod on HD-98 special election A rare GOP over performance Could it mean VA GOP digging out of hole from last year? Or backlash to redistricting? Perhaps but just bc referendum will be closer than 2025 doesn’t necessarily mean will go down podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

3 legislative special elections tonight; GOP defends 3 seats. In Virginia, a GOP overperformance: The party is up 25% (with a sliver of mail left) in a district Trump won by 15%. In Pennsylvania, 2 Dem overperformance: GOP won by 15% & by 19%, in districts Trump won by 33 & 38.

Best result for the IL left is the HD40 result I'd say?

Mixed night for progressives in Illinois Most of the House nominations went to more establishment candidates But relatively more progressive candidate won the Senate nomination Perhaps biggest impact as it is a safe blue seat with nominee who could hold it for some time

Underscores just because we are in a very good national environment wins, or over-performances, aren’t just a given and people should be mindful of that One race so idk if there’s much to worry about but I think we shouldn’t just be taking for granted we will win the VA-Redistricting Ballot

If election tightens to 60-40, that's consistent with a tight race statewide. May not mean anything. But this is a GOP base district and the base may be worked up over redistricting.

GOP will hold Virginia’s HD-98 Margin will get closer when final mail added on Friday Still GOP over performance compared to 2024 Easy to read into special elections But VA GOP seems more motivated than last year So Dems shouldn’t take redistricting referendum for granted

h/t @samshirazi.bsky.social for signaling that there's no mail ballots counted yet! (DDHQ was showing nearly all reporting.)

Virginia's GOP appears very likely to have defended HD98: the It leads 65% to 35% with all in-person voting reporting (+2900 votes). But the *final margin* remains unknown: mail-voting has yet to report, & in November the mail vote broke almost 2:1 for the Democrat. (GOP won by 14 here in Nov.)

Republicans on track to hold Virginia’s HD-98 Still need mail ballots to get complete picture They can be accepted until Friday at Noon if postmarked today Expect more late mail than usual due to shorter early voting period So won’t have final margin until those are counted

Getting Election Day precincts in Virginia’s HD-98 Election Day will probably be more red But early voting usually reported last in Virginia Beach Long way to go

Tonight is Chaharshanbe Suri in Iran An ancient celebration before the Persian New Year of Nowruz It involves jumping over fire to celebrate turning the page The regime has discouraged it for many years But it cannot extinguish the spirit of the Iranian people

We’ll see if regime confirms this Larijani was one of the “brains” of the operation while Basij militia is the regime’s “muscle” Continued degradation of command structure At the same time, no single person holds the house of cards together But who knows if enough fall

Today March 17 will have a special election in Virginia’s HD-98 This Virginia Beach seat voted for Trump by 14% in 2024 Think it’s unlikely Dems will flip it, but we’ll see how close it ends up being Voters in the district can cast ballots until polls close at 7

You won’t find two people who know Virginia better than Chaz and Sam. And I’d agree with this assessment around the VA redistricting amendment.

Virginia is pretty inelastic either way That’s why a big deal Spanberger won by 15% Usually not too hard for GOP to get around 45% No should be able to hit that number Then next 5 to get to 50% is bigger hump Only Youngkin was able to figure it out in last 15 years

New poll of VA-6 Dem primary for proposed district Appears to be group backing Del. Sam Rasoul Tom Perriello starts off with the lead, although narrows after informed ballot Rasoul has not formally entered yet, but has expressed interest

Special Federal Fallout pod on impact of war America faces another war in Middle East Rise in gas prices could cause another spike in inflation If it happens, midterms might look more like 2006 when Dems flipped House and Senate But depends how long it lasts podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...