Virginia's Senate Majority Leader confirms to Bolts that Virginia Democrats intend to move the constitutional amendment that'd allow for a mid-decade gerrymander in January. Says it is “going to be one of the first orders of business."

Cherry won by 6 in a Trump +9 district. Dunno if Spanberger carried the district but she probably at least came close.

You know, I hadn't thought about this until just now but man, @statenavigate.org & team fucking NAILED their last poll in VA! And a lot of people were shitting on it They were off by less than 2 points in both the Gov & LG races & were the only ones showing Jones winning with ease. Kudos to them!

Leadership challenge to Virginia House GOP leader Terry Kilgore He took over in summer when Todd Gilbert resigned House GOP was badly outspent by Dems and lost 13 seats Kilgore also hoped Miyares could lead ticket and may have missed top of ticket implications for House

Big swings and upsets in NOVA and North Jersey Arguably Russ Vought was equivalent in this election to Elon Musk in Wisconsin Shutdown RIFs and freezing funds for Hudson River tunnel seized by Dems Really didn’t make sense in middle of those campaigns newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/...

Basically every country with a statewide election on Tuesday shifted toward Democrats, with the shift driven by both differential partisan turnout patterns and persuasion (looks like 30% turnout 70% persuasion in NJ and VA) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...

So Dems won all the Strong Dem (39), Leans Dem (9) and Competitive (10) VA House of Delegates seats; also 6 of the 14 seats that Lean Republican. Amazing. bluevirginia.us/2025/11/poli... h/t @vpapupdates

Delegate Debra Gardner also announces she’s running for State Senate seat being vacated by Ghazala Hashmi Looks like Delegate v. Delegate contest between her and Mike Jones Winner would have to resign House seat So probably going to get another special there

Always use caution with Electoral predictions. The world can change as fast as you can blink.

Word of caution for Dems Big night in 2021 elections for GOP fueled “red wave” talk in 2022 midterms Obviously overturning of Roe changed the dynamics But nothing is predetermined in elections Still lot of time until 2026 midterms Good idea to never take anything for granted

Interesting chart from VPAP comparing 2021 and 2025 turnout in Virginia Dem counties generally ran at or ahead of 2021 GOP counties generally ran behind Lowest turnout was in Buchanan in SWVA But keep in mind persuasion also important as Spanberger won independents

Virginia is for election lovers There will be a special election to replace Ghazala Hashmi in the State Senate Del. Mike Jones announces he’s running as expected There will be party run process to pick Dem nominee This is safe blue seat so nominee very likely to win election

100% correct. The Dem ads about Trump weren't just "orange man bad." They were: I'm focused on lowering costs while my GOP opponent is serving Trump, who is raising costs with tariffs, canceling infrastructure, etc.

Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Elections November 2025 bluevirginia.us/2025/11/poli...

Lot of talk about swing in NOVA But decent swings in Hampton Roads too This tends to be main battleground region that goes back and forth Another place feeling the Federal Fallout VA-2 would have been top target before redistricting and even more now

1961 was the last Virginia gubernatorial election under the Byrd Machine, before the 24th amendment ended poll taxes. In other words, Abigail has the biggest win for any Democrat running for governor, since black people could vote again. Arguably the biggest win for any Dem in a free election.

Spanberger to Virginia Dems (Forgot to post this last night)

A lesson about pace of change I was registering voters in Virginia in 2008 Came across young man who said he couldn’t bc had a felony conviction Seemed impossible at time for system to change Virginians will finally get chance to repeal that part of state Constitution in 2026

Diverse group of Dems who flipped 13 red seats in Virginia House of Delegates 10 women 5 African-American 1 Asian-American (First Chinese-American elected to House) 1 Hispanic Many of them also on younger side Helps to replenish Dem ranks in Virginia

A Spanish speaking voter I canvassed was impressed by Spanberger’s Spanish language ad. Said she did it well.

Big VA-2 news as former Rep. Elaine Luria might jump in Imagine last night’s results and possible Redistricting influences decision Luria was first elected during the first Trump midterm in 2018 The party that has won VA-2 has been in House majority every election since 2008

Tough night for Winsome Earle-Sears Heard from Republicans about missed opportunity in terms of her story Immigrant born in Jamaica First Black woman elected statewide in Virginia Instead her campaign kept focusing on trans issue Even after polls showed wasn’t working

Part of story in Loudoun was good results for Dems in South Asian and Muslim areas Possible some of it was turnout dynamics But heard there were non-traditional efforts geared towards those communities Using apps like Telegram and direct contact Lessons for Dems for midterms

We won 64 seats in the Virginia House with fair maps y’all.

Virginia Department of Elections says 1440 same-day registrations in Harrisonburg in HD-34 Not all of them will be counted But there is also the final mail that will be very blue Seems unlikely final outcome will change, but something to keep an eye on

Sherrill won by almost as much as Spanberger Sorry NJ Dems

New Federal Fallout pod out with initial thoughts on Virginia elections Apologies if a bit rambly Good night for Dems Federal Fallout was a real thing The dramatic swings after Presidential election happened again Now let’s see what lessons parties take away podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Deleted the Falls Church turnout number because hearing there might be error on Department of Elections website Still it had very high turnout! Sorry long night and will double check everything

Fun facts Abigail Spanberger got biggest win for a Dem in Virginia Governor election since 1961 Ghazala Hashmi got biggest win for Dem in Virginia Lt. Governor election since 1965 Virginia Dems won most seats in Virginia House of Delegates since 1987

Ok calling it a night Will have a new Federal Fallout pod out tomorrow Planning on keeping it going for now to provide full analysis I’ve been through my share of Virginia elections in my time A memorable night But good for both sides to remember it swings back and forth

In hindsight, James Walkinshaw’s 50 point win in the VA-11 special was foreshadowing Everyone waved it off as just another Dem special over performance But NOVA results show a huge backlash to changes in DC GOP gains here after 2020 wiped out

After big election win, party in power thinks it was total endorsement of world view Dems thought it after 2020 GOP thought it after 2024 Reality is Americans have lot of different views Many voters lend support temporarily Good for both parties to keep that in mind

To give you the scale of Virginia Dems House of Delegates victories They didn’t even contest this seat in 2023 when they won a majority Now they flip this district in Hampton Roads Really worst case scenario for Virginia Republicans

Because I want to see more data people on BlueSky other than myself, I am shouting out the following accounts whose coverage/analysis I've found helpful and recommend you follow them if you like my data posts: @uncrewed.bsky.social @gelliottmorris.com @samshirazi.bsky.social @djsoke.bsky.social

Virginia Dems will move forward with Constitutional referendums after winning House of Delegates majority Redistricting made a lot of news Also in November 2026 there will be 3 additional referendums: Reproductive rights Restoring voting rights to ex-felons Marriage equality

Every single county in Virginia shifted Blue.

Looks like wipe out for Virginia House of Delegates Republicans Dems on track to get at least 60 seats, if not more GOP had 66 seats in 2017 before the elections then Now will be below 40 in second Trump era Will have full break down tomorrow

Look there was a reason the podcast was called Federal Fallout There was already the historical thing about party out of White House Then soon as DOGE happened, it seemed obvious the outcome in Virginia The results confirm what in hindsight was inevitable since January 20

Dems flip another seat in the Richmond area Lindsey Doughtery pulls it out in a blue leaning district against strong incumbent This is the seat of Delegate Carrie Coyner She was the one Jay Jones sent the texts to More a story in AG race as opposed to this seat

It didn’t end up being that close Jay Jones will become the first Black Attorney General in Virginia The voters gave him a second chance after a difficult campaign

Dems flip their first Northern Virginia house seat Elizabeth Guzman makes a comeback after leaving House previously This seat is in middle Prince William County Federal Fallout and shutdown likely a factor here

The House of Delegates flips are coming in Virginia Kimberly Pope Adams wins after coming up just short in 2023 This district south of Richmond was heavily targeted by Dems They were able to get out there voters in this district with a large Black population

Obviously have to wait for full results, but looks like a blue wave in Virginia Dems on track to sweep statewide offices Going to retain majority in House of Delegates and make gains Spanberger will be first incoming Dem Governor with a trifecta since 1989 election

2025 Loudoun drop looks very different than 2024 Needless to say, Jay Jones on track to win

Another expected result But historic nonetheless Ghazala Hashmi will become the first South Asian and Muslim person elected statewide in Virginia There is some ticket splitting in Lt. Governor race, but far less than AG race

Very little ticket splitting in Petersburg City which has large Black population If Jones pulls it out, a lot could come down to Black voters sticking with him

This is not biggest surprise of night But still a historic moment Abigail Spanberger will become the first woman Governor in Virginia history She is likely going to get a bigger win than 9% that Dems got in 2017 last time Trump was in White House

Initial thoughts on Virginia Clear Spanberger and Hashmi on track to win AG close as expected Ticket splitting is not going to be even around Virginia Keep in mind there will be tens of thousands blue leaning provisional and final mail after tonight Could make difference

Polls are now closing in Virginia As always, if you are in line at 7, still allowed to vote Results should come in quickly and I’ll be posting my hot takes Follow results at link below Virginia Department of Elections: enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/publ...

Just looked up my parents’ NoVa precinct—in the general last year 918 people voted on Election Day. At 2:30 today, my mom was already voter number 730.