The UK is on the verge of elevating its 7th prime minister in 10 years. Marine Le Pen — now cleared to run for president — is the current front-runner against every potential opponent in France. Today @lennybronner.com and I discuss the reasons for Europe's major political upheaval.

"They basically just picked the town drunk in Maine and made him run for Senate." Had a lively chat with Lakshya Jain and @zacharydonnini.bsky.social on the latest GD POLITICS pod!

Reality check: in every Senate battleground this cycle except for Maine, the majority of the electorate thinks the Democratic Party is too extreme. In none of the battlegrounds does a majority think the Republican Party is too extreme.

Dems leading by just 2 pts in the Maine Senate race... a declining lead for Dems in generic ballot polls... We answered some questions from *concerned* Dems on the latest pod w/ Mary Radcliffe and @baseballot.bsky.social. Plus, SCOTUS, prediction markets & poll methodology 🤓

Why hasn't right-wing populism taken off in Ireland? @hlinehan.bsky.social and I discussed that question and much more in our Inside Elections x GD POLITICS crossover podcast at the Irish Times studio in Dublin!

NEW POD: The weaker Trump gets nationally, the more GOP lawmakers will be incentivized to break with him, and the more Trump will want to enforce party loyalty. Call him a lame duck with teeth. @rubashkin.bsky.social and I talked about this and much more on the latest pod!

NEW POD: @baseballot.bsky.social, Mary Radcliffe, and I talk about the split screen, where on one side Trump's approval numbers are falling apart and on the other side GOP primary voter loyalty remains very much in tact. www.gdpolitics.com/p/trump-hits...

Yikes

LIVE SHOW ALERT: In which we debut the brand new game “True or False: Crosstab Diving Edition” For example, non-college-educated men are more likely to identify as bisexual than college-educated women. True or false? Answer below. Better yet, watch the show!👇

🚨 NEW POD 🚨 It's one of the topics I get asked about most frequently & we're finally dedicating a full episode. Everything you need to know about... *~prediction markets!~* Jacob Studwell digs into how they work, arguments for & against, regulation & what their future holds.👇

May 13 at the Comedy Cellar! Tix here to see Nate Silver @galendruke.bsky.social et moi! shop.comedycellar.com/product/galen/

And stick around for my rankings of which Senate seats are most/least likely to flip this fall!

NEW POD: The Senate Map Has A Maine Character @sahilkapur.bsky.social joined me to talk about what the truncated Maine primary tells us about the Democratic Party right now: the “Biden trauma tax,” the value of “authenticity,” and whether Democrats are experiencing their own Tea Party moment.

NEW POD: One year ago the Liberals in Canada won an election they seemed certain to lose just months prior. Since then, PM Mark Carney has only grown in popularity and power. @ericgrenier.bsky.social, @338canada.bsky.social and I talked about how the past year has unfolded.

Was a lot of fun to join @galendruke.bsky.social with my pod partner @338canada.bsky.social on GD Politics to discuss the state of Canadian public opinion one year after the last election and (still) in the shadow of Donald Trump: www.gdpolitics.com/p/a-year-of-...

LIVE SHOW ALERT: @claremalone.bsky.social, Nate Silver and I are back at the Comedy Cellar on May 13 for rowdy political analysis, games & audience questions. Grab a ticket, grab a beer, and come join us!

NEW POD: Virginia is deciding whether to gerrymander its congressional map today, potentially giving Dems 10 seats & Reps just one. @baseballot.bsky.social & I talked about that election, the gerrymandering landscape & how elex law could change before the midterms.

NEW POD: What The Iran War Did To The Economy w/ @marthagimbel.bsky.social. When we last checked in on the economy, on Feb 23, we were talking about a soft landing and a well-balanced macroeconomy. Five days later, we went to war with Iran. Here's how things have changed...

NEW POD: Trump Declares Victory. Voters Send A Different Message. I spoke w/ Mary Radcliffe & @lennybronner.com about Trump’s ceasefire, how voters are liable to react, & how they’ve already reacted in WI and GA elections. We also previewed the election in Hungary this Sunday.

NEW POD: How low is Trump's approval rating floor? Nate Silver and I talked about that and much more today's pod. He might have even spilled when the midterm forecast is launching 🤓

Hello all! I did a podcast with the fantastic @galendruke.bsky.social on the state of Japanese politics these days. He was a great interviewer---super prepared, interesting questions---so any kudos go to him. Hopefully it'll be useful to some of my friends as well. www.gdpolitics.com/p/can-a-popu...

Calling my lawyer lol

I'm back from Japan and have an episode all about Japanese politics in the GD POLITICS feed today! I talked to @kmcelwain.bsky.social about PM Sanae Takaichi's mandate and the challenges that lie ahead: rising costs, constitutional amendments, immigration policy & more.

I am back from vacation/a news blackout and Mary Radcliffe and @baseballot.bsky.social had me guess everything that happened while I was gone! I got a 70 percent 🤷 www.gdpolitics.com/p/everything...

NEW POD: What is the endgame in Iran? I talked to former Assistant Secretary of Defense Mara Karlin about what the apparent strategy is in Iran, conflicting messages from the White House aside. We also talked about the likeliest outcome. www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-is-th...

It's time we open up the mailbag and answer some listener questions on the GD POLITICS pod. Any questions about polls, elections, politics, the meaning of life... drop 'em below and we'll dig into them soon! 👇

Great live show last night with @claremalone.bsky.social, Nate Silver and special guest Eli McKown-Dawson! We talked Texas results, war in Iran, AI doomerism... AND did our first-ever 2028 GOP primary draft. Did Ted Cruz make the draft? Only one way to find out. 👇

After a week of think pieces and market gyrations, I sat down with @jburnmurdoch.ft.com for a data-driven conversation about how AI is impacting the world so far. It's today's episode of the GD POLITICS podcast! Is It Time To Freak Out About AI? www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FsM...

On the latest GD POLITICS episode... ➡️ Epstein fallout ➡️ DHS shutdown fight ➡️ Gallup's farewell to prez approval ➡️ Election updates w/ friends of the pod Mary Radcliffe & @lennybronner.com!

The Comedy Cellar residency continues! March 4 I'll be there with Nate Silver and @galendruke.bsky.social doing a live 2028 GOP draft. Get your tickets! www.gdpolitics.com/p/a-live-202...

After a rowdy live 2028 Dem primary draft last month, @claremalone.bsky.social, Nate Silver & I are returning to the Comedy Cellar on March 4 to tackle the GOP side of the ledger! Grab a ticket and join us for our first-ever 2028 GOP primary draft. (Plus, it’s the day after the TX primaries!)

The Texas Senate primaries are MESSY I talked to @patricksvitek.bsky.social about it: www.gdpolitics.com/p/the-texas-...

The midterms are 9 months away and the primaries begin in just 4 weeks! Jacob Rubashkin and Leah Askarinam joined me on the GD POLITICS podcast to discuss the early math heading into the 2026 elections:

We frequently get listener questions on the GD POLITICS podcast about “abundance.” After our live show this week a listener approached me to ask about specific zoning laws (beyond “make it easier to build housing” type stuff). It’s not something I’m very deep into, but what I told him is that…

This week Nate Silver, @claremalone.bsky.social and I hosted a live 2028 Democratic primary draft at the Comedy Cellar in New York City. Two moments stuck out to me. Both were when we asked the audience whether they wanted to see Kamala Harris run for president in 2028.

Is Alex Pretti's killing a turning point? On the latest episode of GD POLITICS I discussed that question with Mary Radcliffe and @baseballot.bsky.social My answer: yes

Gabe Fleisher and I tried to assess Trump's first year back in office according to his own standards of success and failure. We also looked at how Americans have reacted to him and where his new assertions of presidential power have been allowed to stand vs. batted down. Check it out!

I asked Sen. Lisa Murkowski what I thought was something of a throw away question last summer: "Is the president right that America would be better served if Greenland were part of the United States?" She was clear: "No."

Join Gabe Fleischer and me at 3pm ET to chat about year one of Trump 2.0!

Americans are facing a torrent of political news 🤪 @lennybronner.com and I answered your questions on ICE, Iran, the Senate and more on today's episode of GD POLITICS. www.gdpolitics.com/p/we-answer-...

It’s been a really slow news cycle, so I assume no one has any questions, but jic, drop them bellow. Recording a mailbag episode tomorrow! 📨

Former lieutenant governor of Georgia Geoff Duncan served as a Republican, but recently switched parties and is now running for governor as a Democrat. I asked him about another Georgian who has recently had a change of heart: Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Can a former Republican win Georgia for Democrats? I talked for former lieutenant governor of Georgia Geoff Duncan about his bid to win the governor's race as a Democrat. www.gdpolitics.com/p/video-can-...

On today's episode of GD POLITICS, I spoke with Peter Viggo Jakobsen, a leading Danish national security expert, about Trump's threats against Greenland. I asked him if the U.S. or Russia is a bigger threat...

Welcome to 2026! By year's end, presidential primary contenders are likely to have begun announcing. What are we going to do about it? @claremalone.bsky.social, Nate Silver and I are hosting a live 2028 Democratic primary draft at the Comedy Cellar in New York City on Jan. 27!

Americans didn't support U.S. intervention in Venezuela, but now that it's happened, what will the political consequences be? Mary Radcliffe, @baseballot.bsky.social and I discuss on today's episode of GD POLITICS. www.gdpolitics.com/p/how-will-a...

2026 In: anxious homo Out:

Getting ready to bury our 2025 time capsule...

Friends of the pod @baseballot.bsky.social and Mary Radcliffe helped me come up with the 10 numbers that defined 2025 in politics. Can you guess what they represent? -43 -225 -106 -62 -170 billion -271,000 -12 -1 -12 -70

On today's GD POLITICS pod... "Roman Empire" elections w/ @rubashkin.bsky.social & Leah Askarinam. In other words, the elections we just can't stop thinking about, i.e. the reboot of Star Trek indirectly leading to Barack Obama’s election or a coin flip making Glenn Youngkin’s career!