🤳EXCLUSIVE: We analyzed real data from over 800 U.S. TikTok users to reveal how the app transforms casual users into power users. Extremely proud of this one, over a year in the making w/ @richardsima.bsky.social Leslie Shapiro @asteckelberg.bsky.social @ence.bsky.social wapo.st/4obueib

Demands from Dems provoked the government shutdown, but Reps are getting most of the blame so far. Why? I talked about it on GD POLITICS today w/ @lennybronner.com and Mary Radcliffe. We also discussed that poll out of PA showing Fetterman is -20 with PA Dems, but +40 with PA Reps.

I'd been delinquent, but I've updated my spreadsheet of special election results. On average, Democrats have done 13 points better than a neutral baseline. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Presidents’ names are getting shorter. Why? incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

On the latest GD POLITICS installment, @lennybronner.com and I answer your questions about the youth gender gap, Democrats' unpopularity, ChatGPT election forecasting, & more. We also chatted about the latest election results in VA 11 and... Norway! www.gdpolitics.com/p/election-u...

inside you are two wolves

NEW: Earlier this month, OpenAI released the latest version of ChatGPT, GPT-5, sparking online backlash at the new chatbot's less friendly tone. The scale of people's emotional attachment to the previous chatbot, GPT-4o, even surprised the company's CEO, Sam Altman. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/b...

still looking for an answer to this

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

Democrats just need to run some ideological extreme candidates in toss-up districts and see what happens. For the science!

NEW from @kashhill.bsky.social and me: Over three weeks in May, a man became convinced by ChatGPT that the fate of the world rested on his shoulders. Otherwise perfectly sane, Allan Brooks is part of a growing number of people getting into chatbot-induced delusional spirals. This is his story.

if you had to set yourself a reminder for 2045, how would you do that?

Data extraordinaire @lennybronner.com and I opened up the mailbag on the latest GD POLITICS episode. It's in your feeds now and it's a good one... "Gaza, Gen Z, And A Gay President"

What if Trump’s gains with minorities weren’t about Trump at all? @andrewvandam.bsky.social and I took a look at recent election results in NYC, Toronto and London and tried to figure out why we're seeing similar trends in all three cities www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Dems' education-based turnout advantage may be reduced in midterms compared to special elections, since turnout is higher in midterms. But it won't be zero. A swing against the President's party is normal. Dems need to gain only 3 seats to flip the House. It's be surprising if they didn't manage.

Democrats are dominating special elections. But is that as good a sign for them as it used to be? I looked at the history -- and what’s shifting now. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

were you looking for another article on the Pew data released today? we got you covered: Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds w/ @sfcpoll.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024 - our story with @lennybronner.com on the @pewresearch.org 2024 validated voter survey www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

sometimes it does also come down to turnout

broke: trying to infer election outcomes from yard signs woke: trying to infer election outcomes from google trends bespoke: trying to infer election outcomes from poll wait times

What exactly happened in 2024? Come crosstab diving with Mary Radcliffe, @lennybronner.com, and me on the latest GD POLITICS episode.

80 years of Vergangenheitsbewältigung and President Trump just...

Something I hadn't noticed before in @electproject.bsky.social analysis: while 2022 was the first midterm since 1990 where the electorate was whiter than the previous midterm, in 2024 earlier trend continues, the 2024 electorate was less white than 2020 michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-votin...

Do we know anyone who lives near Karnes County, Texas, and would be willing to go to the county clerk's office in Karnes City, fill out a form and pay $10 in cash for precinct-level election results? Because that's what they've told us needs to happen.

TIL that MA archives their election results with the correct (if confusing when looking things up quickly) color scheme electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/vi...

A Russian spy story? Obviously must have some Österreichbezug

New article from me about polling in 2024/going forward. Are the pollsters who did the best in 2024 and 2020 on to something? Or are they just pushing their data toward Republicans and getting lucky when everyone else gets hit by nonresponse? Link: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p... 🧵

fwiw, I think the part of my job that is software engineering will be automated before the part of my job that is journalism (at least the non-writing part of journalism)

Tories squeezed: losing seats in the North and Midlands to Reform, and seats in the South and South West to the Lib Dems, eg.

We now have >250 wards/divisions reported and an increasingly clear picture of the Reform vote. It is higher in areas with fewer graduates, more people with no qualifications, areas where more people are employed in primary industries (e.g. manufacturing) and areas with more older people.

Where things stand the morning after the election in Canada: 🔴155 seats called for the Liberals 🔵133 for the Conservatives 🟦21 for the Bloc Québécois 🟠5 for the New Democrats 🟢1 for the Greens The 28 uncalled seats will determine whether Liberals get a majority (172):

There were state elections in my hometown of Vienna yesterday! Contrary to the zeitgeist, the governing coalition gained in % compared to the last election. This is actually the second time in a row that this happened (after 2015-2020), though both times it was caused by falling turnout.

Is FL-01 the KS-04 of this cycle?

Narrowly looking at Dane county precincts only, Crawford saw a larger shift from Harris' in places with lower turnout relative to November

Gonna tell my kids that this was the emerging Democratic majority

Crawford's over-performance in Dane County precincts that have finished reporting already so far is ~6.5

come on Wisconsin, at this point Florida was already at like 73% reporting

and they call this trick the uniform swing

so what are we estimating for FL-06? Another 15 point swing compared to November?

My first deep dive story for NYT: Are You Smarter Than A.I.? Some experts predict that A.I. will surpass human intelligence within the next few years. Play this puzzle to see how far the machines have to go. 🟦🟩🟪 Gift link: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Crystal Ball -- @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on the NH Senate race as well as how the VA Dem electorate might be getting more "efficient" as state House races loom this fall centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

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Head over to GDPolitics [dot] com, where I'm sitting shiva for FiveThirtyEight 🪦 (and sharing a couple updates)

Fantastic graphs by @aatishb.bsky.social + Irineo Cabreros showing how covid broke the trendline on... everything five years ago. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

If you’re missing the 538 Politics podcast, go subscribe to what comes next at GDPolitics [dot] com. I’ll have some updates there later today. You wont be podast-less for long 🫶

As for me, I think I’ve still got some podcasting left to do 🤓. Please go subscribe to what comes next at GDPOLITICS [dot] com. You'll find some longer reflections on today's news there as well. Also, if you’d like to work with me in any capacity, get in touch!...

Not sure what's next for me. I'm going to take some time off but then will be looking for ways to stay in political journalism. In the meantime, please hire my fantastic colleagues, and stay in touch by signing up for my newsletter: baseballot.substack.com/subscribe

Der Spiegel have a neat interactive looking at voter flows. Collapsing centre-left parties along with a rising far-right might give a slightly misleading impression of the election—the biggest movements were SPD and FDP->Union and Union->AfD, not SPD->AfD www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

fwiw, good thing to remember that these are exit polls in Germany. The first projections are still 15-30 minutes away