Come for Mary's analysis of Iran polling, stay for my terrible Hungarian

Is online discourse getting worse? To bring actual data to bear on this question, we launched the Public Discourse Indicator, a dashboard tracking online comments submitted to several major Swiss newspapers. Our aim here is twofold: www.public-discourse.org/en/public-di...

On the latest GD POLITICS episode... ➡️ Epstein fallout ➡️ DHS shutdown fight ➡️ Gallup's farewell to prez approval ➡️ Election updates w/ friends of the pod Mary Radcliffe & @lennybronner.com!

ok, but have they considered an ensemble model?

Americans are facing a torrent of political news 🤪 @lennybronner.com and I answered your questions on ICE, Iran, the Senate and more on today's episode of GD POLITICS. www.gdpolitics.com/p/we-answer-...

Today on GD POLITICS: Celebrity Politicians, Dummymandering, And The Texas Primary w/ @lennybronner.com! www.gdpolitics.com/p/celebrity-...

This is a great job for early-career polling folks. Plus, you’d get to work with the delightful @emgusk.bsky.social ! www.disneycareers.com/en/job/washi...

Quite the survey from earlier this month in Germany. 61% of Left and 52% of Green voters would like Angela Merkel back as chancellor. Compared to only 22% of voters from her own center-right party.

Ich bin gezeichnet von einem 1:1 Match, das wir gewonnen haben!

id a 2025 post-mortem on the latest GD POLITICS pod w/ @lennybronner.com, @linleyann.bsky.social & Lakshya Jain. We discussed the who, where & why behind Democrats' impressive performance + what it portends for '26. There's some Epstein file polling and moderates vs. progressives discourse too.

Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%) 1/2

Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%

broke: age differential voting woke: age differential in turnout

Mamdani's gains relative to the primary was really driven by the Bronx and Brooklyn, elsewhere it stayed relatively constant.

TONIGHT: REVENGE OF THE NERDS -- GD POLITICS @ 7PM ET @baseballot.bsky.social @rubashkin.bsky.social @lennybronner.com @erincovey.bsky.social

Teamed up with @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social to take a look at the NJ governor’s race & what its results could tell us about the durability of Trump’s 2024 gains/“realignments” www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...

the naming of cats is a difficult matter

Rebranded!!!

try and beat me

How America’s favorite sports bet is fueling sportsbook profits Parlays are becoming more popular, accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Post analysis of betting data. Bettors lose billions a year on these bets. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/inter...

🤳EXCLUSIVE: We analyzed real data from over 800 U.S. TikTok users to reveal how the app transforms casual users into power users. Extremely proud of this one, over a year in the making w/ @richardsima.bsky.social Leslie Shapiro @asteckelberg.bsky.social @ence.bsky.social wapo.st/4obueib

Demands from Dems provoked the government shutdown, but Reps are getting most of the blame so far. Why? I talked about it on GD POLITICS today w/ @lennybronner.com and Mary Radcliffe. We also discussed that poll out of PA showing Fetterman is -20 with PA Dems, but +40 with PA Reps.

I'd been delinquent, but I've updated my spreadsheet of special election results. On average, Democrats have done 13 points better than a neutral baseline. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Presidents’ names are getting shorter. Why? incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

On the latest GD POLITICS installment, @lennybronner.com and I answer your questions about the youth gender gap, Democrats' unpopularity, ChatGPT election forecasting, & more. We also chatted about the latest election results in VA 11 and... Norway! www.gdpolitics.com/p/election-u...

inside you are two wolves

NEW: Earlier this month, OpenAI released the latest version of ChatGPT, GPT-5, sparking online backlash at the new chatbot's less friendly tone. The scale of people's emotional attachment to the previous chatbot, GPT-4o, even surprised the company's CEO, Sam Altman. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/b...

still looking for an answer to this

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

Democrats just need to run some ideological extreme candidates in toss-up districts and see what happens. For the science!

NEW from @kashhill.bsky.social and me: Over three weeks in May, a man became convinced by ChatGPT that the fate of the world rested on his shoulders. Otherwise perfectly sane, Allan Brooks is part of a growing number of people getting into chatbot-induced delusional spirals. This is his story.

if you had to set yourself a reminder for 2045, how would you do that?

Data extraordinaire @lennybronner.com and I opened up the mailbag on the latest GD POLITICS episode. It's in your feeds now and it's a good one... "Gaza, Gen Z, And A Gay President"

What if Trump’s gains with minorities weren’t about Trump at all? @andrewvandam.bsky.social and I took a look at recent election results in NYC, Toronto and London and tried to figure out why we're seeing similar trends in all three cities www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Dems' education-based turnout advantage may be reduced in midterms compared to special elections, since turnout is higher in midterms. But it won't be zero. A swing against the President's party is normal. Dems need to gain only 3 seats to flip the House. It's be surprising if they didn't manage.

Democrats are dominating special elections. But is that as good a sign for them as it used to be? I looked at the history -- and what’s shifting now. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

were you looking for another article on the Pew data released today? we got you covered: Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds w/ @sfcpoll.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024 - our story with @lennybronner.com on the @pewresearch.org 2024 validated voter survey www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

sometimes it does also come down to turnout

broke: trying to infer election outcomes from yard signs woke: trying to infer election outcomes from google trends bespoke: trying to infer election outcomes from poll wait times

What exactly happened in 2024? Come crosstab diving with Mary Radcliffe, @lennybronner.com, and me on the latest GD POLITICS episode.

80 years of Vergangenheitsbewältigung and President Trump just...

Something I hadn't noticed before in @electproject.bsky.social analysis: while 2022 was the first midterm since 1990 where the electorate was whiter than the previous midterm, in 2024 earlier trend continues, the 2024 electorate was less white than 2020 michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-votin...

Do we know anyone who lives near Karnes County, Texas, and would be willing to go to the county clerk's office in Karnes City, fill out a form and pay $10 in cash for precinct-level election results? Because that's what they've told us needs to happen.

TIL that MA archives their election results with the correct (if confusing when looking things up quickly) color scheme electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/vi...

A Russian spy story? Obviously must have some Österreichbezug

New article from me about polling in 2024/going forward. Are the pollsters who did the best in 2024 and 2020 on to something? Or are they just pushing their data toward Republicans and getting lucky when everyone else gets hit by nonresponse? Link: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-best-p... 🧵

fwiw, I think the part of my job that is software engineering will be automated before the part of my job that is journalism (at least the non-writing part of journalism)

Tories squeezed: losing seats in the North and Midlands to Reform, and seats in the South and South West to the Lib Dems, eg.