Extremely relevant today - our new report on the state of the rule of law in America brightlinewatch.org/erosion-of-t... Most notably, 91% of legal experts say Trump's DOJ provides favors or benefits to his allies, including 56% of legal conservatives. Findings thread below; please read & share.

High in STRONG disapproval of Trump (52%) and low in strong approval (20%) -> widest gap of term (32 pts) And noteworthy result about key segment of Trump base: last month his approval with White, non-college Americans dipped below 50% for first time in this poll; it's still underwater at 46% today

More tough numbers for White House from today's CBS News/YouGov poll Trump approval rating down to new low of 37% Ratings of economy down to levels not seen since 2023 Three quarters say incomes aren't keeping up with inflation (stable proportion since '23); gas prices increasingly difficult 1/2

@kabirkhanna.bsky.social says Republican redistricting may drive Democratic enthusiasm: “I do think that will add fuel to the fire in terms of engaging people and driving turnout.” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says,” They may have really overshot this.” #Velshi

Trump endorsed 7 primary challengers against Indiana state senators who voted against redistricting in the state... Of six races that have already been projected tonight: 5 Trump-endorsed challengers have won nomination 1 incumbent state senator has survived Still waiting on SD-23, which is closer

Happy to share I'm joining MS NOW as Director of Elections & Analytics... Truly excited for this chapter and grateful for the opportunity build something special in a crucial election year www.thewrap.com/media-platfo...

I analyzed turnout by race and Hispanic ethnicity in Virginia's redistricting amendment vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/how-did-vi...

Time to plug my simple congressional model again, which I've updated with the new VA plan: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel. Net effect of re-redistricting is D+1.5 seats in tied environment, growing to D+2 seats in a D+10 environment. Bit more competitive map, too.

Virginia voters approve a referendum for a new congressional map, which is expected to favor Democrats.

It's still early, but positive trends for Yes side on Virginia ballot question Early results tracking fairly closely with '24 election when Harris won state by 6 points Here are counties we estimate to be >80% complete, scaled by size Large circle is Loudoun, where Yes is slightly ahead of Harris

Once again asking people not to post about poll results without links to the surveys, and not to repost anything that cites poll results without links to the surveys. This is not (primarily) about credit, it's a data credibility check.

Nice analysis here from Andrew & NBC desk, who estimate Virginians turning out at 90% of what we saw last fall Context: 2025 gubernatorial saw 3.4 million total votes and 15-point win for Democrat Spanberger That indicates about 3.1 million total referendum votes, with slight majority voting today

The vivid partisan sorting of US house districts by income and party -- 2005 -2024

Trump's approval rating is down 14 points since start of term, from 53% in Feb '25 to 39% now Young people and less politically engaged have seen biggest drops (20+ pts) New lows today with '24 non-voters (30%) and men <45 (36%) And White non-college number underwater for first time (48% approve)

NEW Trump's approval rating has hit a new low this term: 39% in our latest poll Ratings of U.S. economy have ticked down, with eight in ten Americans reporting rising gas prices Widespread dissatisfaction with administration's handling of economy, and its marks on Iran war aren't much better 1/3

Republicans hold onto their seat in Georgia's 14th, but Democrats post another BIG overperformance It's a district Trump carried by 37 pts, so this is a blue shift of over 20 pts Most outstanding votes are in counties Democrat is leading (Cobb + Paulding), so current R margin should narrow... 1/2

Delivering the keynote at Columbia's political analytics conference, which features a great mix of scholars and practitioners discussing various topics in the field. It's this Friday, and registration is still open! 📅March 27, 2026 🕘9 am - 4 pm 📍Columbia University, NYC More info: lnkd.in/gvMauJ5h

Relatedly, shares seeing rising gas prices (85%) and prices on goods/services (72%) both at highs in our polling More highs: 53% say Trump policies are making them *worse* off financially 18% of Trump '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling Half the country overall (49%) *strongly* disapprove

NEW Approval of U.S. military action in Iran down to 40% 38% approve of Trump handling of situation (-5 pts in 3 weeks) Share saying Trump has clearly explained goals down to 32% Majority say conflict going badly for U.S. Two thirds call it "war of choice" More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...

At long last! The latest @crosstabspodcast.com is uploading right now, featuring the brilliant @kathleenweldon.bsky.social of @ropercenter.bsky.social talking about the power of archiving opinion research - and so much more. Subscribe to get it in your feed: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

CBS News projects Juliana Stratton the winner of the Illinois Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Even though our modeling suggests her vote lead over Raja Krishnamoorthi may narrow a bit, we're confident she wins Stratton to face Republican Don Tracy in the general election in this deep blue state

Closer look at last week's big turnout in Texas, with a focus on Latinos... Relative to average across '20, '22, and '24, majority-Latino counties saw 37% increase in primary votes Other counties saw closer to 33% increase in aggregate Starr & Hidalgo County among largest spikes (67% & 51%) 1/6

Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social): Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.

In North Carolina, D share of midterm primary vote predicts general election results (plot has contested Senate & House races since '14) ~57% of votes Tuesday were Democratic — even considering historical reversion to 50%, such a lopsided result indicative of strong tailwind for Ds in must-win race

CBS News projects James Talarico winner of the U.S. Senate Democratic primary in Texas We have projected that he will finish ahead of Jasmine Crockett with over 50% of the votes

CBS News/YouGov recontacted survey respondents after strikes on Iran Most say Trump administration still hasn't clearly explained goals — which is related to disapproval of military action Half the country believes conflict will last months or even years More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

Interesting that latest YouGov survey of Texas primary, which uses text-to-web recruitment, has quite different estimates of vote choice by race/ethnicity than polls using YG online panel

More signs of '26 enthusiasm gap... Trump voters 2x likelier than Harris voters to say which party controls congress in '27 doesn't matter Even bigger gap w/ independents... Ind. Harris voters: 83% Dem control 14% doesn't matter/unsure Ind. Trump voters: 59% GOP control 32% doesn't matter/unsure

With midterm primaries kicking off tomorrow, which party would Americans like to see control Congress next year? All adults: D+7 Reg. voters: D+6 Those saying "Not sure" or "It doesn't matter either way" are mostly Trump voters, but based on turnout histories, aren't consistent midterm voters 1/3

About 15% of Trump's '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling — the share has crept up since last year I pooled data from our four polls over the last two months to take a closer look at them (n=435, MOE: ±5.4 pts) (All polls done before U.S. strike on Iran, w/ field dates from 1/5-2/27) 1/4

Redistricting Reforms Reduce Gerrymandering by Constraining Partisan Actors is now forthcoming in the APSR! We use a game theoretic treatment and continuous DiD(iD) to show when redistricting reforms work with @corymccartan.com, @simko.bsky.social, Emma Ebowe, Michael Zhao, and Kosuke Imai

Checked in on key measures ahead of State of the Union address tonight... At 40%, Trump overall job approval back to its low point this term in our polls New lows with Americans age 30-44 (35%), men <45 (38%), White non-college (52%) Independents at just 31%, and '24 non-voters at low of 32% 1/7

Most registered voters say the Democratic Party is “weak” and the GOP “extreme” Neither party seen by most as being “effective” though GOP has edge on that descriptor Independent voters more likely to call Democratic Party “reasonable” than GOP (43% vs. 29%) More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-an...

The Roper Center is now accepting nominations for the 2026 Mitofsky Award, which honors excellence in public opinion research Fill out form by April 6 to nominate someone (self-nominations welcome) Call here, including past awardees and 2026 submission form: ropercenter.cornell.edu/events/2026-...

New @nber.org paper with @caitlinpatler.bsky.social & @elizabethacox.bsky.social out! We examine how ICE arrests differ in Trump 2.0 vs. 1.0 Key Findings 🧵 1) MANY more arrests in Trump 2.0 than 1.0 2) When arrests spike, % arrested w criminal conviction falls www.nber.org/papers/w3479...

DHS data show 14% of immigrants arrested by ICE in the past year had been charged or convicted of violent crimes.

Our latest economic polling finds... Large majorities saying it's harder to buy home, get good job, or raise family than it was for prior generations Most see growing income gap, less opportunity for middle class U.S. job market ratings still underwater More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Hello super friends. There is a new @crosstabspodcast.com It features a cool experiment in talking to non-political voters by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social at @cbsnews.com He's super smart. You should listen to him. Hey, did you know it's an election year?? Again??! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

Rarely do we see an issue with such widespread disapproval There's overwhelming opposition to U.S. taking Greenland by military force, and for the moment, it's a bipartisan sentiment Large majorities say doing so would cause U.S. to leave NATO and world instability www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...

Our latest poll finds Trump approval at 41%, down 12 pts from first reading this term (small honeymoon) Economic ratings continue to lag overall rating Some groups have seen close to 20-point drops in past year, like young people, independents, '24 non-voters More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

NEW More call ICE operations too tough in wake of Minneapolis, with growing view that deportation program targets more than just dangerous criminals Approval of program at low, with majority now feeling Trump administration too focused on deporting Our latest poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...

A year ago, many expected Trump to improve their finances But now, 44% plurality feel policies have made them worse off Each time we've checked, 3/4 say income not keeping up with inflation Most expect slowing U.S. economy or recession planning ahead Our new poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

NEW Most Americans say Trump presidency so far has made them feel uneasy Independents especially likely to say uneasy (64%), frustrated (59%) Three in four Americans continue to say there has not been enough focus on lowering prices — regular theme this term More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

New CNN polling: Most Americans see an immigration officer’s fatal shooting of Renee Good as an inappropriate use of force. Roughly half view it as a sign of broader issues with the way ICE is operating, w/under 1/3 saying that ICE operations have made cities safer. www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/p...

Jan 9-11 poll of 1,129 U.S. adult citizens (+/-3.9 points): ICE % who think the ICE agent justified | not justified in the amount of force he used in shooting a woman in Minneapolis U.S. adult citizens 28% | 53% Democrats 4% | 88% Republicans 61% | 15% d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/IC...

As with Iran bombing, MAGA Republicans support Trump military intervention at higher rates than other Republicans do Even more favor Venezuela action than liked idea of it in Nov They see it as success that strengthens U.S. global position and back further military action in countries defying U.S.

Among Hispanic Americans, one in ten both approve of U.S. military action capturing Maduro AND disapprove of Trump handling of Venezuela situation Interestingly, Hispanic approvers of U.S. removing Maduro are less likely than other backers to say Venezuela was a threat that required military action

NEW Most Americans disapprove of way Trump is handling Venezuela, but nearly half approve of military capturing Maduro Most didn't think Venezuela was threat requiring military, and most would oppose further U.S. military action there Seven in 10 say Trump still hasn't clearly explained plan 1/2

Some findings from our last political poll of the year... Trump approval rating at 41% overall, stabilizing after months of decline Six in ten say he makes things sound better than they really are when describing inflation Most grade economy "C" or worse (Poll fielded just after speech Wed) 1/5

About that easing inflation last month... Thanks to shutdown, no BLS data on housing costs in October They assumed 0% increase for now, likely bringing down CPI (~1/3 housing) Rather than sample all rents each month, BLS surveys ~1/6 on rotating basis, so need another six months to estimate costs