Some findings from our last political poll of the year... Trump approval rating at 41% overall, stabilizing after months of decline Six in ten say he makes things sound better than they really are when describing inflation Most grade economy "C" or worse (Poll fielded just after speech Wed) 1/5

About that easing inflation last month... Thanks to shutdown, no BLS data on housing costs in October They assumed 0% increase for now, likely bringing down CPI (~1/3 housing) Rather than sample all rents each month, BLS surveys ~1/6 on rotating basis, so need another six months to estimate costs

A drag on the ticket? Estimating top‐of‐the‐ticket effects on down‐ballot races by Kevin DeLuca, Daniel J. Moskowitz, and Benjamin Schneer is now available in Early View. @cantstopkevin.bsky.social @danmoskowitz.bsky.social @benschneer.bsky.social ow.ly/8Hun50XAhmq

Wow, new high in @pewresearch.org data 44% of Dems/leaners are ANGRY at federal government Higher than both first Trump term and GOP anger during Biden; in fact, highest level for either side since '97 Likely goes some way in explaining recent turnout patterns www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Democrats fail to flip TN 7, but it's another big overperformance Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm

Notable write-ins (>100 votes) 1,209 Brad Lander 266 Mike Bloomberg 183 Kathryn Garcia 192 Adrienne Adams 167 Jessica Tisch 143 James Manning (Harlem faith leader)

NYC's mayoral election results were just certified Final results: 50.8% Mamdani 41.3% Cuomo 7.0% Sliwa   Mamdani margin over Cuomo: 9.46 percentage points Total votes: 2,194,204 (excluding 24,443 unrecorded) Source: vote.nyc/page/electio... (Note: image below doesn't include write-in candidates)

Trump rating at low point with many groups... Age <30 (27% approve) Hispanic (31%) '24 non-voter (32%) Non-college (42%) +Men, White people, White non-college Independents at low of 28%, with *strong* disapproval high of 56% And Trump '24 voters down to 84% approval, due to independent drop 1/2

Our latest polling sees Trump's approval and economic ratings dip to new lows this term 40% approve of his overall job handling 36% approve of handling of economy 32% say national economy is good On overall job rating, strong disapproval is 2x strong approval More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...

Public opinion on Epstein files has been unambiguous for a while now This summer, nine in ten Americans said DOJ should release everything it has regarding case Similar number said files probably include damaging info on powerful/wealthy people More from July poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

California shows similar patterns to what we saw in NJ & VA Among Trump voters, people of color and younger voters were likeliest to vote YES on Prop 50 % of Trump voters backing Prop 50: 24% Latino (women > men) 23% Asian 6% White 21% <45 9% 45+ 33% POC <45 15% POC 45+ 6% White <45 6% White 45+

Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%) 1/2

🧵 Deep dive on voters Mamdani added to Democratic coalition — specifically those who didn't vote for Kamala Harris in '24 They are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent than consistent voters, and they voted for somewhat distinct reasons Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new... 1/

Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24 Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20 1/3

It's time for Fun Poll Friday! Actually, maybe Foreign Poll Friday - these polls cover pretty heavy issues, particularly focusing on international relations. But they're interesting, and that's close to fun! Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)

NYC 2025 Mayoral results as a dot density plot using the `dots` #rstats package (cran.r-project.org/web/packages...)

Flashback Friday: Exit polls have evolved dramatically since the first national exit poll in the US was conducted in 1972 by Warren Mitofsky for CBS News. Dive into the archives to see our earliest data. What was the public saying then? ropercenter.cornell....

Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins. Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!

Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44 Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people

A year ago Zohran Mamdani was a little known assemblyman polling at under 1%, but on Tuesday, the 34-year-old democratic socialist won over 50% in the highest-turnout race for mayor in decades How did he do it? Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21: Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union >30% increase in total vote >30-pt Democratic margin High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov 1/2

NYC map shaded by vote margin! We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc. datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/ H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social

Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%

Just projected Prop 50 passing in California... So here's the state's new congressional map More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...

Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/ Hover over map to see our estimates... #CBSDataDesk🍎

Impressive turnout across New York City today, continuing the heavy volume we tracked during the early voting period We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993 #CBSDataDesk🍎

Finishing up prep for election night at CBS News' Data Desk! Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:

What we know about NYC voters checking in early... 74% registered Democrat (12% Republican) 55% voted in the June Democratic primary Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago Age breakdown: 16% 18-29 24% 30-44 33% 45-64 27% 65+ Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates

What we know about NYC voters checking in early... 74% registered Democrat (12% Republican) 55% voted in the June Democratic primary Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago Age breakdown: 16% 18-29 24% 30-44 33% 45-64 27% 65+ Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates

Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!) So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting 1/2

Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month) And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

NEW Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling: Overall job (41%) Economy (38%) Inflation (34%) Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July 1/2

As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period... As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary

At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher 1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01) 1.8 million -> 38% turnout 2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)

NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5) 1/2

Even after weighting, there's a ton of poll-to-poll variation in estimates of support within demographic subgroups. Saving this for the next time someone goes sub-group diving with future polls.

Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...

The AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling has released its final report today. aapor.org/wp-content/u...

Excited to begin this new chapter of election research with a great team and innovative methodology...

NEW Prop 50 is a state ballot measure on redistricting, but many Californians are thinking nationally, motivated by opposition to Trump Most likely voters say they would vote Yes on 50, while those oppsoed tend to see it as mostly a state issue, saying it shifts power from rural areas and costs $

A look at Latino voters in New Jersey, including why we'll be closely watching Passaic County at the Data Desk this fall...

Trump deploying National Guard to U.S. cities is not popular — its support level matches his (underwater) job approval rating Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Couple data points as we approach two years since Oct 7 Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33% Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)

Amit shutdown and persistent econonmic concerns, Trump approval rating back to its low point this term New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%) At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024 1/3

Possible signs of receptivity to Democratic messaging... Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news Among independents paying closest attention: Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown Most say debate primarily about health care

NEW Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently "Extreme" top descriptor for GOP "Weak" top descriptor for Democrats www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

How often do Americans talk politics with someone of differing views? Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online 1/2

NEW Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...

NEW Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25 1/2

Reminder that Adams dropping out of NYC mayoral race doesn’t really move the needle — Mamdani still leads by double digits, according to our poll His support is so low that reallocating his voters to their second choice only helps Cuomo a little bit (and not all of Adams’ backers pick Cuomo second)