We're hiring! This is an exciting opportunity to build something new in the election analytics space, in a dynamic environment with super smart colleagues. Let me know if you're interested or if you know someone who might be a good fit... jobs.smartrecruiters.com/Versant3/744...

NYT polls show Ds have Senate path, but it's close... within margin of error of flipping enough seats to win 51 NC likeliest to flip, ME toss up Warning in OH/AK/TX/IA: % wanting R control 3-6 pts higher than % voting R; Rs have room to grow if majority looks shaky www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u...

AP projects Nithya Raman advancing to general election for Los Angeles mayor Tonight’s update from LA gives her a cushion of over 20,000 votes over Spencer Pratt, making her position in the top two safe So Raman will face incumbent Karen Bass this fall

BREAKING Nithya Raman just overtook Spencer Pratt in the LA mayor vote count Today's update puts Raman ahead of Pratt by over 3,000 votes Her tally has steadily trended up since Election Day, so this was expected She beat Pratt by 22 points in tonight's batch, 23 pts Saturday, and 21 pts Friday

Trump should show up here at the L.A. County ballot processing center because he’d learn within five minutes this is democracy in action, not some conspiracy.

Here's where the LA Mayoral race stands today (est. 78% in): 34.8% Bass 27.3% Pratt 26.2% Raman Here's the full trajectory of vote reports, with each row being unique batch Raman won plurality of both Friday and Saturday's votes, and beat Pratt by >20 pts She's in position to overtake him tonight

Bearing witness has never mattered more and you don’t have to be a journalist to do it. Contrary to what the people counting on your indifference want you to believe, citizenship is a choice to show up and engage with your neighbors, your community, your country. We will not look away. #Velshi

In order to advance to general election for LA mayor, Raman needs to beat Pratt by about 10 percentage points in the vote estimated to be outstanding in Los Angeles... How much she beat Pratt by in each batch of votes since Tue: 10.4 pts on Wed 13.3 tpts on Thu 20.7 pts today

Opposite story in LA mayoral: 3rd-place Nithya Raman hitting numbers she needs to catch up with 2nd-place Spencer Pratt In today’s batch of 60K votes, Raman actually got bigger share than even incumbent Karen Bass Gap between Raman and Pratt now down to 3 points It could be a photo finish for 2nd

Large updates today in counties like Sacramento, Contra Costa, Alameda, and LA propelled Becerra into 1st place in CA Gov race Later-arriving ballots continue to break heavily for Ds There are still millions of ballots left to count statewide, and no projection yet for 2nd candidate advancing 1/2

Most Americans oppose ICE presence at World Cup stadiums, a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll finds. Details in my story with @rickmaese.bsky.social -> www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2026/...

Going to talk Texas numbers this morning with Velshi on @ms.now

Extremely relevant today - our new report on the state of the rule of law in America brightlinewatch.org/erosion-of-t... Most notably, 91% of legal experts say Trump's DOJ provides favors or benefits to his allies, including 56% of legal conservatives. Findings thread below; please read & share.

High in STRONG disapproval of Trump (52%) and low in strong approval (20%) -> widest gap of term (32 pts) And noteworthy result about key segment of Trump base: last month his approval with White, non-college Americans dipped below 50% for first time in this poll; it's still underwater at 46% today

More tough numbers for White House from today's CBS News/YouGov poll Trump approval rating down to new low of 37% Ratings of economy down to levels not seen since 2023 Three quarters say incomes aren't keeping up with inflation (stable proportion since '23); gas prices increasingly difficult 1/2

@kabirkhanna.bsky.social says Republican redistricting may drive Democratic enthusiasm: “I do think that will add fuel to the fire in terms of engaging people and driving turnout.” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says,” They may have really overshot this.” #Velshi

Trump endorsed 7 primary challengers against Indiana state senators who voted against redistricting in the state... Of six races that have already been projected tonight: 5 Trump-endorsed challengers have won nomination 1 incumbent state senator has survived Still waiting on SD-23, which is closer

Happy to share I'm joining MS NOW as Director of Elections & Analytics... Truly excited for this chapter and grateful for the opportunity build something special in a crucial election year www.thewrap.com/media-platfo...

I analyzed turnout by race and Hispanic ethnicity in Virginia's redistricting amendment vote michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/how-did-vi...

Time to plug my simple congressional model again, which I've updated with the new VA plan: tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel. Net effect of re-redistricting is D+1.5 seats in tied environment, growing to D+2 seats in a D+10 environment. Bit more competitive map, too.

Virginia voters approve a referendum for a new congressional map, which is expected to favor Democrats.

It's still early, but positive trends for Yes side on Virginia ballot question Early results tracking fairly closely with '24 election when Harris won state by 6 points Here are counties we estimate to be >80% complete, scaled by size Large circle is Loudoun, where Yes is slightly ahead of Harris

Once again asking people not to post about poll results without links to the surveys, and not to repost anything that cites poll results without links to the surveys. This is not (primarily) about credit, it's a data credibility check.

Nice analysis here from Andrew & NBC desk, who estimate Virginians turning out at 90% of what we saw last fall Context: 2025 gubernatorial saw 3.4 million total votes and 15-point win for Democrat Spanberger That indicates about 3.1 million total referendum votes, with slight majority voting today

The vivid partisan sorting of US house districts by income and party -- 2005 -2024

Trump's approval rating is down 14 points since start of term, from 53% in Feb '25 to 39% now Young people and less politically engaged have seen biggest drops (20+ pts) New lows today with '24 non-voters (30%) and men <45 (36%) And White non-college number underwater for first time (48% approve)

NEW Trump's approval rating has hit a new low this term: 39% in our latest poll Ratings of U.S. economy have ticked down, with eight in ten Americans reporting rising gas prices Widespread dissatisfaction with administration's handling of economy, and its marks on Iran war aren't much better 1/3

Republicans hold onto their seat in Georgia's 14th, but Democrats post another BIG overperformance It's a district Trump carried by 37 pts, so this is a blue shift of over 20 pts Most outstanding votes are in counties Democrat is leading (Cobb + Paulding), so current R margin should narrow... 1/2

Delivering the keynote at Columbia's political analytics conference, which features a great mix of scholars and practitioners discussing various topics in the field. It's this Friday, and registration is still open! 📅March 27, 2026 🕘9 am - 4 pm 📍Columbia University, NYC More info: lnkd.in/gvMauJ5h

Relatedly, shares seeing rising gas prices (85%) and prices on goods/services (72%) both at highs in our polling More highs: 53% say Trump policies are making them *worse* off financially 18% of Trump '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling Half the country overall (49%) *strongly* disapprove

NEW Approval of U.S. military action in Iran down to 40% 38% approve of Trump handling of situation (-5 pts in 3 weeks) Share saying Trump has clearly explained goals down to 32% Majority say conflict going badly for U.S. Two thirds call it "war of choice" More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...

At long last! The latest @crosstabspodcast.com is uploading right now, featuring the brilliant @kathleenweldon.bsky.social of @ropercenter.bsky.social talking about the power of archiving opinion research - and so much more. Subscribe to get it in your feed: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

CBS News projects Juliana Stratton the winner of the Illinois Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Even though our modeling suggests her vote lead over Raja Krishnamoorthi may narrow a bit, we're confident she wins Stratton to face Republican Don Tracy in the general election in this deep blue state

Closer look at last week's big turnout in Texas, with a focus on Latinos... Relative to average across '20, '22, and '24, majority-Latino counties saw 37% increase in primary votes Other counties saw closer to 33% increase in aggregate Starr & Hidalgo County among largest spikes (67% & 51%) 1/6

Conditionally accepted at the APSR (w/ @scottclifford.bsky.social & @patrickpliu.bsky.social): Why does political information so often change beliefs but NOT attitudes? We highlight the role of belief relevance, or the extent to which beliefs bear on attitudes.

In North Carolina, D share of midterm primary vote predicts general election results (plot has contested Senate & House races since '14) ~57% of votes Tuesday were Democratic — even considering historical reversion to 50%, such a lopsided result indicative of strong tailwind for Ds in must-win race

CBS News projects James Talarico winner of the U.S. Senate Democratic primary in Texas We have projected that he will finish ahead of Jasmine Crockett with over 50% of the votes

CBS News/YouGov recontacted survey respondents after strikes on Iran Most say Trump administration still hasn't clearly explained goals — which is related to disapproval of military action Half the country believes conflict will last months or even years More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

Interesting that latest YouGov survey of Texas primary, which uses text-to-web recruitment, has quite different estimates of vote choice by race/ethnicity than polls using YG online panel

More signs of '26 enthusiasm gap... Trump voters 2x likelier than Harris voters to say which party controls congress in '27 doesn't matter Even bigger gap w/ independents... Ind. Harris voters: 83% Dem control 14% doesn't matter/unsure Ind. Trump voters: 59% GOP control 32% doesn't matter/unsure

With midterm primaries kicking off tomorrow, which party would Americans like to see control Congress next year? All adults: D+7 Reg. voters: D+6 Those saying "Not sure" or "It doesn't matter either way" are mostly Trump voters, but based on turnout histories, aren't consistent midterm voters 1/3

About 15% of Trump's '24 voters now disapprove of his job handling — the share has crept up since last year I pooled data from our four polls over the last two months to take a closer look at them (n=435, MOE: ±5.4 pts) (All polls done before U.S. strike on Iran, w/ field dates from 1/5-2/27) 1/4

Redistricting Reforms Reduce Gerrymandering by Constraining Partisan Actors is now forthcoming in the APSR! We use a game theoretic treatment and continuous DiD(iD) to show when redistricting reforms work with @corymccartan.com, @simko.bsky.social, Emma Ebowe, Michael Zhao, and Kosuke Imai

Checked in on key measures ahead of State of the Union address tonight... At 40%, Trump overall job approval back to its low point this term in our polls New lows with Americans age 30-44 (35%), men <45 (38%), White non-college (52%) Independents at just 31%, and '24 non-voters at low of 32% 1/7

Most registered voters say the Democratic Party is “weak” and the GOP “extreme” Neither party seen by most as being “effective” though GOP has edge on that descriptor Independent voters more likely to call Democratic Party “reasonable” than GOP (43% vs. 29%) More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-an...

The Roper Center is now accepting nominations for the 2026 Mitofsky Award, which honors excellence in public opinion research Fill out form by April 6 to nominate someone (self-nominations welcome) Call here, including past awardees and 2026 submission form: ropercenter.cornell.edu/events/2026-...

New @nber.org paper with @caitlinpatler.bsky.social & @elizabethacox.bsky.social out! We examine how ICE arrests differ in Trump 2.0 vs. 1.0 Key Findings 🧵 1) MANY more arrests in Trump 2.0 than 1.0 2) When arrests spike, % arrested w criminal conviction falls www.nber.org/papers/w3479...

DHS data show 14% of immigrants arrested by ICE in the past year had been charged or convicted of violent crimes.

Our latest economic polling finds... Large majorities saying it's harder to buy home, get good job, or raise family than it was for prior generations Most see growing income gap, less opportunity for middle class U.S. job market ratings still underwater More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Hello super friends. There is a new @crosstabspodcast.com It features a cool experiment in talking to non-political voters by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social at @cbsnews.com He's super smart. You should listen to him. Hey, did you know it's an election year?? Again??! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...