The Roper Center is now accepting nominations for the 2026 Mitofsky Award, which honors excellence in public opinion research Fill out form by April 6 to nominate someone (self-nominations welcome) Call here, including past awardees and 2026 submission form: ropercenter.cornell.edu/events/2026-...

New @nber.org paper with @caitlinpatler.bsky.social & @elizabethacox.bsky.social out! We examine how ICE arrests differ in Trump 2.0 vs. 1.0 Key Findings 🧵 1) MANY more arrests in Trump 2.0 than 1.0 2) When arrests spike, % arrested w criminal conviction falls www.nber.org/papers/w3479...

DHS data show 14% of immigrants arrested by ICE in the past year had been charged or convicted of violent crimes.

Our latest economic polling finds... Large majorities saying it's harder to buy home, get good job, or raise family than it was for prior generations Most see growing income gap, less opportunity for middle class U.S. job market ratings still underwater More here: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Hello super friends. There is a new @crosstabspodcast.com It features a cool experiment in talking to non-political voters by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social at @cbsnews.com He's super smart. You should listen to him. Hey, did you know it's an election year?? Again??! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

Rarely do we see an issue with such widespread disapproval There's overwhelming opposition to U.S. taking Greenland by military force, and for the moment, it's a bipartisan sentiment Large majorities say doing so would cause U.S. to leave NATO and world instability www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...

Our latest poll finds Trump approval at 41%, down 12 pts from first reading this term (small honeymoon) Economic ratings continue to lag overall rating Some groups have seen close to 20-point drops in past year, like young people, independents, '24 non-voters More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

NEW More call ICE operations too tough in wake of Minneapolis, with growing view that deportation program targets more than just dangerous criminals Approval of program at low, with majority now feeling Trump administration too focused on deporting Our latest poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-tru...

A year ago, many expected Trump to improve their finances But now, 44% plurality feel policies have made them worse off Each time we've checked, 3/4 say income not keeping up with inflation Most expect slowing U.S. economy or recession planning ahead Our new poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

NEW Most Americans say Trump presidency so far has made them feel uneasy Independents especially likely to say uneasy (64%), frustrated (59%) Three in four Americans continue to say there has not been enough focus on lowering prices — regular theme this term More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

New CNN polling: Most Americans see an immigration officer’s fatal shooting of Renee Good as an inappropriate use of force. Roughly half view it as a sign of broader issues with the way ICE is operating, w/under 1/3 saying that ICE operations have made cities safer. www.cnn.com/2026/01/14/p...

Jan 9-11 poll of 1,129 U.S. adult citizens (+/-3.9 points): ICE % who think the ICE agent justified | not justified in the amount of force he used in shooting a woman in Minneapolis U.S. adult citizens 28% | 53% Democrats 4% | 88% Republicans 61% | 15% d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/IC...

As with Iran bombing, MAGA Republicans support Trump military intervention at higher rates than other Republicans do Even more favor Venezuela action than liked idea of it in Nov They see it as success that strengthens U.S. global position and back further military action in countries defying U.S.

Among Hispanic Americans, one in ten both approve of U.S. military action capturing Maduro AND disapprove of Trump handling of Venezuela situation Interestingly, Hispanic approvers of U.S. removing Maduro are less likely than other backers to say Venezuela was a threat that required military action

NEW Most Americans disapprove of way Trump is handling Venezuela, but nearly half approve of military capturing Maduro Most didn't think Venezuela was threat requiring military, and most would oppose further U.S. military action there Seven in 10 say Trump still hasn't clearly explained plan 1/2

Some findings from our last political poll of the year... Trump approval rating at 41% overall, stabilizing after months of decline Six in ten say he makes things sound better than they really are when describing inflation Most grade economy "C" or worse (Poll fielded just after speech Wed) 1/5

About that easing inflation last month... Thanks to shutdown, no BLS data on housing costs in October They assumed 0% increase for now, likely bringing down CPI (~1/3 housing) Rather than sample all rents each month, BLS surveys ~1/6 on rotating basis, so need another six months to estimate costs

A drag on the ticket? Estimating top‐of‐the‐ticket effects on down‐ballot races by Kevin DeLuca, Daniel J. Moskowitz, and Benjamin Schneer is now available in Early View. @cantstopkevin.bsky.social @danmoskowitz.bsky.social @benschneer.bsky.social ow.ly/8Hun50XAhmq

Wow, new high in @pewresearch.org data 44% of Dems/leaners are ANGRY at federal government Higher than both first Trump term and GOP anger during Biden; in fact, highest level for either side since '97 Likely goes some way in explaining recent turnout patterns www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Democrats fail to flip TN 7, but it's another big overperformance Blue shift of ~14 pts, which is nearly on par with shifts in other U.S. House specials this year Ds hit vote target in Nashville, but more rural counties didn't shift as much Turnout notable: ~180K total votes, matching '22 midterm

Notable write-ins (>100 votes) 1,209 Brad Lander 266 Mike Bloomberg 183 Kathryn Garcia 192 Adrienne Adams 167 Jessica Tisch 143 James Manning (Harlem faith leader)

NYC's mayoral election results were just certified Final results: 50.8% Mamdani 41.3% Cuomo 7.0% Sliwa   Mamdani margin over Cuomo: 9.46 percentage points Total votes: 2,194,204 (excluding 24,443 unrecorded) Source: vote.nyc/page/electio... (Note: image below doesn't include write-in candidates)

Trump rating at low point with many groups... Age <30 (27% approve) Hispanic (31%) '24 non-voter (32%) Non-college (42%) +Men, White people, White non-college Independents at low of 28%, with *strong* disapproval high of 56% And Trump '24 voters down to 84% approval, due to independent drop 1/2

Our latest polling sees Trump's approval and economic ratings dip to new lows this term 40% approve of his overall job handling 36% approve of handling of economy 32% say national economy is good On overall job rating, strong disapproval is 2x strong approval More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ve...

Public opinion on Epstein files has been unambiguous for a while now This summer, nine in ten Americans said DOJ should release everything it has regarding case Similar number said files probably include damaging info on powerful/wealthy people More from July poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

California shows similar patterns to what we saw in NJ & VA Among Trump voters, people of color and younger voters were likeliest to vote YES on Prop 50 % of Trump voters backing Prop 50: 24% Latino (women > men) 23% Asian 6% White 21% <45 9% 45+ 33% POC <45 15% POC 45+ 6% White <45 6% White 45+

Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%) 1/2

🧵 Deep dive on voters Mamdani added to Democratic coalition — specifically those who didn't vote for Kamala Harris in '24 They are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent than consistent voters, and they voted for somewhat distinct reasons Analysis: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new... 1/

Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24 Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20 1/3

It's time for Fun Poll Friday! Actually, maybe Foreign Poll Friday - these polls cover pretty heavy issues, particularly focusing on international relations. But they're interesting, and that's close to fun! Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)

NYC 2025 Mayoral results as a dot density plot using the `dots` #rstats package (cran.r-project.org/web/packages...)

Flashback Friday: Exit polls have evolved dramatically since the first national exit poll in the US was conducted in 1972 by Warren Mitofsky for CBS News. Dive into the archives to see our earliest data. What was the public saying then? ropercenter.cornell....

Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins. Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!

Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44 Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people

A year ago Zohran Mamdani was a little known assemblyman polling at under 1%, but on Tuesday, the 34-year-old democratic socialist won over 50% in the highest-turnout race for mayor in decades How did he do it? Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21: Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union >30% increase in total vote >30-pt Democratic margin High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov 1/2

NYC map shaded by vote margin! We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc. datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/ H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social

Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%

Just projected Prop 50 passing in California... So here's the state's new congressional map More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...

Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/ Hover over map to see our estimates... #CBSDataDesk🍎

Impressive turnout across New York City today, continuing the heavy volume we tracked during the early voting period We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993 #CBSDataDesk🍎

Finishing up prep for election night at CBS News' Data Desk! Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:

What we know about NYC voters checking in early... 74% registered Democrat (12% Republican) 55% voted in the June Democratic primary Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago Age breakdown: 16% 18-29 24% 30-44 33% 45-64 27% 65+ Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates

What we know about NYC voters checking in early... 74% registered Democrat (12% Republican) 55% voted in the June Democratic primary Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago Age breakdown: 16% 18-29 24% 30-44 33% 45-64 27% 65+ Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates

Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!) So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting 1/2

Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month) And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

NEW Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling: Overall job (41%) Economy (38%) Inflation (34%) Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July 1/2

As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period... As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary

At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher 1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01) 1.8 million -> 38% turnout 2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)

NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5) 1/2