Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24 Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20 1/3

It's time for Fun Poll Friday! Actually, maybe Foreign Poll Friday - these polls cover pretty heavy issues, particularly focusing on international relations. But they're interesting, and that's close to fun! Most of these remain in column binary, but can be converted. DM me. (1/?)

NYC 2025 Mayoral results as a dot density plot using the `dots` #rstats package (cran.r-project.org/web/packages...)

Flashback Friday: Exit polls have evolved dramatically since the first national exit poll in the US was conducted in 1972 by Warren Mitofsky for CBS News. Dive into the archives to see our earliest data. What was the public saying then? ropercenter.cornell....

Dense, high Hispanic counties like Hudson also point against the ‘24 red shift constituting a lasting “new” NJ. Cities like Perth Amboy saw large ‘24 Trump shifts, but supported Sherrill on Tuesday with overwhelming margins. Read more from me and @kabirkhanna.bsky.social for #CBSDataDesk🍎 below!

Wow. Fresh data from NYC Board of Elections on electorate Of those voting Tuesday, 17% are <30 and 25% are 30-44 Add to 41% of early voters <45, and share of young is much higher than recent mayorals So while turnout increased in communities across the city, it increased *more* among young people

A year ago Zohran Mamdani was a little known assemblyman polling at under 1%, but on Tuesday, the 34-year-old democratic socialist won over 50% in the highest-turnout race for mayor in decades How did he do it? Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21: Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union >30% increase in total vote >30-pt Democratic margin High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov 1/2

NYC map shaded by vote margin! We collected very granular precinct data and aggregated it to neighborhoods people actually recognize Bushwick, Flushing, Upper West Side, etc. datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/ H/T @mitelectionlab.bsky.social @chriskenny.bsky.social @corymccartan.com @simko.bsky.social

Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%

Just projected Prop 50 passing in California... So here's the state's new congressional map More on redistricting here: www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-c...

Mamdani's win by NYC neighborhood: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Wrd72/4/ Hover over map to see our estimates... #CBSDataDesk🍎

Impressive turnout across New York City today, continuing the heavy volume we tracked during the early voting period We're now on track for well over 2 million total votes and the highest mayoral turnout rate since Rudy Giuliani beat David Dinkins in 1993 #CBSDataDesk🍎

Finishing up prep for election night at CBS News' Data Desk! Sunday in NYC was the highest single day early votes since at least 2019 and maybe ever:

What we know about NYC voters checking in early... 74% registered Democrat (12% Republican) 55% voted in the June Democratic primary Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago Age breakdown: 16% 18-29 24% 30-44 33% 45-64 27% 65+ Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates

What we know about NYC voters checking in early... 74% registered Democrat (12% Republican) 55% voted in the June Democratic primary Most didn't vote in mayoral four years ago Age breakdown: 16% 18-29 24% 30-44 33% 45-64 27% 65+ Combined 41% under 45! So, much younger than '17 and '21 electorates

Another 151K check ins today, according to the NYC Board of Elections... which I believe is the highest on record in a single day (including during the 2024 presidential!) So we're at 735,317 total. Other than depressed turnout on a rainy day, our model got it right on day five of early voting 1/2

Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month) And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

NEW Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling: Overall job (41%) Economy (38%) Inflation (34%) Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July 1/2

As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period... As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary

At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher 1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01) 1.8 million -> 38% turnout 2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)

NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5) 1/2

Even after weighting, there's a ton of poll-to-poll variation in estimates of support within demographic subgroups. Saving this for the next time someone goes sub-group diving with future polls.

Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...

The AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling has released its final report today. aapor.org/wp-content/u...

Excited to begin this new chapter of election research with a great team and innovative methodology...

NEW Prop 50 is a state ballot measure on redistricting, but many Californians are thinking nationally, motivated by opposition to Trump Most likely voters say they would vote Yes on 50, while those oppsoed tend to see it as mostly a state issue, saying it shifts power from rural areas and costs $

A look at Latino voters in New Jersey, including why we'll be closely watching Passaic County at the Data Desk this fall...

Trump deploying National Guard to U.S. cities is not popular — its support level matches his (underwater) job approval rating Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Couple data points as we approach two years since Oct 7 Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33% Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)

Amit shutdown and persistent econonmic concerns, Trump approval rating back to its low point this term New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%) At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024 1/3

Possible signs of receptivity to Democratic messaging... Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news Among independents paying closest attention: Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown Most say debate primarily about health care

NEW Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently "Extreme" top descriptor for GOP "Weak" top descriptor for Democrats www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

How often do Americans talk politics with someone of differing views? Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online 1/2

NEW Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...

NEW Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25 1/2

Reminder that Adams dropping out of NYC mayoral race doesn’t really move the needle — Mamdani still leads by double digits, according to our poll His support is so low that reallocating his voters to their second choice only helps Cuomo a little bit (and not all of Adams’ backers pick Cuomo second)

Big vote differences between NYC renters and home owners, and by how long voters have lived in city... Renters currently back Mamdani by over 20 points, while race appears very close among owners (Cuomo +2) Renters: 47% Mamdani 25% Cuomo 14% Sliwa Home owners: 34% Cuomo 32% Mamdani 18% Sliwa 1/2

NEW Cost of living, calls for change undergird Mamdani lead in NYC Voters call city unaffordable and prioritize someone bringing "needed change" over "right experience" Trump also a factor, with majorities wanting next mayor to oppose him on ICE and National Guard www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Tariff support has steadily eroded… Nov: 52% Dec: 47% Jan: 46% Mar: 44% Apr: 42% Jun: 41% Jul: 40% Sep: 38% About 4 in 10 report buying fewer things due to tariffs Support concentrated among Trump base — 70% of Republicans say Americans should be willing to pay more to support his trade policies

Trump administration continues to get negative ratings on economy and on personal finances Two thirds say his policies are making grocery prices go up And 50% say his policies are making them financially worse off vs. only 20% saying better off (net: -30 pts) More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-n...

Seven in ten say it's best if Federal Reserve operates independently of what Trump wants Similar number say he shouldn't fire members who disagree with him Republicans stand apart, saying Fed should be guided by what he wants (MAGA / non-MAGA Rs diverge here) More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-n...

NEW Majorities of Americans oppose deploying National Guard to DC and other cities, feeling it undermines rights and freedoms without reducing crime Those in favor largely GOP base, saying it makes them feel safer personally, even if they don't live in cities More: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-n...

NEW Large, bipartisan majority says government should make vaccines more available — many say RFK making them less so And even as vaccines have been politicized, majorities across party lines say gov't should encourage vaccinating children for things like MMR More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

NEW Recession fears tick back down, as Americans rate stock market more positively than at start of summer... But majorities continue to say economy's in bad condition and getting worse Two thirds expect rising prices, dampening outlook and especially at lower income levels, purchasing plans 1/2

Trump's ratings have dropped most with young people He did much better with voters <30 in '24 than '20, especially young men, but that looks more like temporary reaction than a durable shift Half his 18-29 approvers in Feb disapprove now (percentage-point drop is over 2x that of older groups) 1/3

Let's look at a possible aggressive TX gerrymander. This is sorted Dem vote share, current (dark blue) vs new (light blue) vs optimal gerrymander* (gold) I think this is a pretty realistic upper bound on what the GOP could do in TX *if criterion is E[GOP seats], and no geographic constraints

What Americans say matters "a lot" in evaluating Trump: 61% Immigration/deportation 56% Inflation/economy 56% One Big Beautiful Bill Act 36% Epstein matter You can immediately see that Epstein pales in comparison to other issues, which is true for Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike 1/2

A dynamic we've seen in polling even before Trump re-took office: support for deportation tends to erode when pollsters specify that people without criminal records or longtime residents will be among those affected. Now, support is dropping as people see what that looks like in practice.