Scott Clifford
@scottclifford.bsky.social
📤 1511
📥 647
📝 47
Professor of Political Science.
http://scottaclifford.com/
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Kevin Collins
7 days ago
Perhaps others have seen it already, but I found this pre-print (first posted in September) deeply troubling, raising concerns about how LLMs used for classification tasks in research open new researcher-degrees-of-freedom, which they call "LLM-hacking" (akin to p-hacking)
arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
loading . . .
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
1
15
8
reposted by
Scott Clifford
John Holbein
9 days ago
Clear evidence that at universities conservatives don't face higher obstacles than liberals to establish student groups + invite outside speakers. "These results fail to offer support for the view that conservative students encounter more difficulty in efforts to access campus resources."
8
728
273
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Yamil Ricardo Velez
about 1 month ago
As
@seanjwestwood.bsky.social
's terrifying new PNAS article demonstrates, LLMs can now pass almost every attention check, mirror personas, stay consistent across pages, and systematically bias responses in the aggregate. So here’s a different angle: verify physical presence, not text.
loading . . .
2
50
11
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Andrew Little
11 days ago
New paper with Salvo Nunnari which aims to detect (partisan) motivated reasoning (MR) using experimental designs based on information order. This provides a flexible way to detect deviations from Bayesian updating which can be explained by MR.
osf.io/preprints/so...
1
37
15
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Drew Engelhardt
25 days ago
We really need to stop asking items like this using agree-disagree scales or comparable formats. These estimates aren't informative.
academic.oup.com/poq/article/...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
add a skeleton here at some point
2
37
14
reposted by
Scott Clifford
PsyArXivBot
15 days ago
Central attitudes in political belief systems are more resistant to change than peripheral attitudes, but not necessarily less amenable to persuasive attempts:
https://osf.io/6a8ue
0
3
2
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Yamil Ricardo Velez
17 days ago
This paper was a blast to work on. The challenge: present party positions across many issues, in real time, using language voters actually use. 🧵 on why we went with a more involved retrieval-based approach and where I think these tools are headed.
add a skeleton here at some point
1
13
5
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Toni Rodon
21 days ago
Partisan voters can reward candidates who stick to the party line even on unpopular issues. Under uncertainty, voters infer that ideologically rigid candidates are also more likely to back the party's other, more popular positions
academic.oup.com/sf/advance-a...
loading . . .
Why moderate voters choose extreme candidates: voter uncertainty as a driver of elite polarization
Abstract. Representative democracy depends on elected officials reflecting voters’ policy preferences. Yet, US elected officials are more ideologically ext
https://academic.oup.com/sf/advance-article/doi/10.1093/sf/soaf199/8346070
0
5
4
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Political Analysis
25 days ago
They find that survey professionalism is common, but there is limited evidence that survey professionals lower data quality. Professionals do not systematically differ from non-professionals and don’t exhibit more response instability. Read the paper here:
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
loading . . .
Survey Professionalism: New Evidence from Web Browsing Data | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Survey Professionalism: New Evidence from Web Browsing Data
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/survey-professionalism-new-evidence-from-web-browsing-data/552625B9C6C5F32BA1DD69435043C184
0
1
3
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Political Analysis
25 days ago
Currently in FirstView: In “Survey Professionalism: New Evidence from Web Browsing Data,” Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg,
@tiagoventura.bsky.social
, Tiago Ventura,
@jonathannagler.bsky.social
,
@ericka.bric.digital
, & Magdalena Wojcieszak provide evidence on survey professionalism across three samples.
1
8
6
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Matt Graham
25 days ago
Survey experiments' popularity in political science is getting attention. What is good and bad about them? How can one maximize their benefits and mitigate their downsides? Greg Huber and I wrote up our thoughts: Paywalled:
doi.org/10.1016/bs.h...
Free:
m-graham.com/papers/Huber...
1
95
27
reposted by
Scott Clifford
David Broockman
about 1 month ago
NEW PAPER w/
@cselmendorf.bsky.social
&
@jkalla.bsky.social
: An under-appreciated reason why voters oppose dense new housing, especially in less-dense neighborhoods: they think it looks ugly and want to prevent that, even in other neighborhoods. Some of what we think is NIMBYism might not be!
35
108
66
reposted by
Scott Clifford
about 1 month ago
A thread on our recent paper (w/Raihan Alam @raihanalam) in PNAS on why punishment often fails and what it means for crime, cooperation, democracy, and the rule of law. I’m super excited for it, it’s the lab’s most extensive experimental work to date. Check it out! 1/
www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....
loading . . .
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2508479122
2
34
17
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Drew Engelhardt
about 1 month ago
Do any meta-analyses or other reflection pieces exist that catalog the sorts of mechanisms specifically, and outcomes generally, studied as consequences of providing white Americans information on their declining population share?
0
2
4
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Roderik Rekker
about 1 month ago
(1/10) 🚨Preprint alert!🚨 In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
loading . . .
OSF
https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/nb6p4_v1
5
112
63
reposted by
Scott Clifford
William J. Brady
about 2 months ago
✨New preprint! Why do people express outrage online? In 4 studies we develop a taxonomy of online outrage motives, test what motives people report, what they infer for in- vs. out-partisans, and how motive inferences shape downstream intergroup consequences. Led by
@felix-chenwei.bsky.social
🧵👇
1
40
19
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Damien Bol
about 2 months ago
New WP on political violence in democracies with the fantastic
@dianebolet.bsky.social
and
@bjarneck.bsky.social
. Sadly very topical, but with some positive results
osf.io/preprints/so...
1/
1
19
6
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Good Authority
about 2 months ago
Very few Americans support actual political violence. Many more support intimidation. Almost no one thinks it’s appropriate to kill your political opponents, but many more would dox them. Read the latest:
goodauthority.org/news/very-fe...
loading . . .
Very few Americans support actual political violence. Many more support intimidation.
Almost no one thinks it’s appropriate to kill your political opponents, but many more would dox them.
https://goodauthority.org/news/very-few-americans-support-actual-political-violence-many-more-support-intimidation/
1
10
7
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Matt Graham
2 months ago
After a huge post-election flip in economic perceptions, I thought Democrats and Republicans might be lying to pollsters to send a partisan message — but I was wrong! New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access):
doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
3
93
50
reposted by
Scott Clifford
British Journal of Political Science
3 months ago
#OpenAccess
from August 2025 - Cleaning up Politics: Anti-Corruption Appeals in Electoral Campaigns -
cup.org/4msGB8X
"Surprisingly, a clean disciplinary record does not substantively enhance a candidate’s anticorruption appeal..." - Sofia Vera
0
1
1
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Ethan Mollick
3 months ago
A cautiously optimistic result on AI and disinformation. A week before 2024 UK elections 13% of all voters used AI to ask about political topics. A randomized trial found this may be good: using AI led to similar gains in true knowledge as doing web research, regardless of model & prompt used.
2
68
21
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Kristina Bakkær Simonsen
4 months ago
📣 MORAL APPEALS IN POLITICAL COMMUNICATION 📣 New version of
@twidmann.bsky.social
and my working paper answering: * Have moral appeals increased over time? * Is the tendency to moralize ideologically patterned? * Are some topics consistently more moralized than others?
osf.io/preprints/os...
loading . . .
OSF
https://osf.io/preprints/osf/m6qkg_v2
2
45
15
reposted by
Scott Clifford
xavier roberts-gaal
4 months ago
We often hear from reviewers: "what about demand effects?" So we developed a method to eliminate them. Something weird happened during testing: We couldn’t detect demand effects in the first place! (1/8)
3
86
46
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Fabian Guy Neuner
4 months ago
New preregistered report
@jepsjournal.bsky.social
"Thin" populism treatments manipulate perceptions of people-centrism + anti-elitism But: some treatments (e.g., "American people") affect perceptions of host ideology, complicating causal analyses of impact of populist rhetoric
cup.org/4n3DvZm
2
12
10
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Nick Davis
4 months ago
colleagues in political science. the formal update to the Garand and Giles journal ranking survey is now live. many of you will receive an email momentarily inviting you to participate. in the event you do NOT receive an invitation, please see this website to self-enroll. thanks! sharing = caring!
loading . . .
Participating
The Evaluation of Publication in Political Research study is open to serious producers and consumers of political research, including faculty in institutions of higher education, doctoral students,…
https://eppr.study/participating/
2
19
17
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Journal of Experimental Political Science
4 months ago
Now Out on First View: "Can (Thin) Populism be Manipulated without Manipulating Host Ideology? Evidence from a Conjoint Validation Approach"
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
loading . . .
Can (Thin) Populism be Manipulated without Manipulating Host Ideology? Evidence from a Conjoint Validation Approach | Journal of Experimental Political Science | Cambridge Core
Can (Thin) Populism be Manipulated without Manipulating Host Ideology? Evidence from a Conjoint Validation Approach
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-experimental-political-science/article/can-thin-populism-be-manipulated-without-manipulating-host-ideology-evidence-from-a-conjoint-validation-approach/A4E58B9114DA8304ED6094D994A1E55F
0
6
5
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Brendan Nyhan
4 months ago
New JEPS: Debunking NIMBY Myths Increases Support for Affordable Housing, Especially Near Respondents' Homes
www.cambridge.org/core/service...
-correcting stereotypes/misperceptions re: affordable housing increases support for building it -Effects often *larger* for housing near people's homes
4
54
20
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
4 months ago
𝘈 𝘖𝘯𝘦-𝘗𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘯 Statistical Power
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
loading . . .
A One-Page Primer on: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey
Statistical power is the chance to reject the null when it’s false. Why it matters, how to compute it, and why both researchers and readers should care. This is a one-page primer with rules of thumb a...
https://www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08-30-1p-statistical-power/
1
19
3
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Drew Engelhardt
4 months ago
I expect this to be an important book. Congrats,
@tanikar.bsky.social
.
academic.oup.com/book/60875
loading . . .
The Social Roots of Asian American Partisanship: From Political Learning to Partisan Leanings
Abstract. The Social Roots of Asian American Partisanship explains one of the most transformative but puzzling trends in contemporary American politics: st
https://academic.oup.com/book/60875
1
14
7
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Public Opinion Quarterly - POQ
4 months ago
As the U.S. celebrates Labor Day, what do voters think about the working poor? In POQ, Benjamin Newman shows that most blame structural problems for poverty among workers – but that race and personal experience shape views too. Read now:
doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
0
12
7
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR
4 months ago
#OpenAccess
from
@jepsjournal.bsky.social
- Do Immigrants’ Partisan Preferences Influence Americans’ Support for Immigration? -
cup.org/4p2Xskp
-
@danielmcdowell.bsky.social
& David A. Steinberg
#FirstView
0
2
4
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Tanay Katiyar
4 months ago
On Prolific, "we estimate that about 34% of online study participants use LLMs to answer open-ended questions atleast some of the time..." Seems like a very timely paper for behavioural scientists using online samples:
osf.io/preprints/so...
; We really need more papers on this issue
4
195
87
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Ethan Porter
4 months ago
Some people find politics interesting. Others do not. In a new paper, I show that appealing to MEANING increases political interest. In 6 experiments, connecting what people find meaningful in their lives to politics increases political interest. Link:
osf.io/preprints/so...
0
9
7
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Political Behavior
4 months ago
Peterson & Jeong find that local media strengthens issue accountability. By reducing uncertainty about legislators’ policy positions, news makes voters more likely to evaluate politicians on issues, not just party lines.
#MediaAndPolitics
Read more:
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
loading . . .
Making Issues Matter: Local Media and Policy-Based Evaluations of Politicians - Political Behavior
Does the media enhance issue accountability? Many argue it does by covering where politicians stand on policy. However, evidence of this process is limited and fails to address two alternatives. First...
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-024-09976-0
0
2
3
reposted by
Scott Clifford
APSA Experimental Research Section
4 months ago
There's a new issue of the section newsletter out! This one's on sample considerations in experiments: professional survey-takers, LLM usage, rural contexts, and more!
connect.apsanet.org/s42/newslett...
1
9
9
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Brendan Nyhan
4 months ago
New job ad: Assistant Professor of Quantitative Social Science, Dartmouth College
apply.interfolio.com/172357
Please share with your networks. I am the search chair and happy to answer questions!
2
178
177
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Drew Engelhardt
4 months ago
Anyone have favorite options for printing SEM output in R like semTable that work for v4.5.1? My Googling has turned up little.
1
2
5
reposted by
Scott Clifford
[C][M][F]
4 months ago
new in early view at Political Psychology -->
1
40
15
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Marvin Stecker
4 months ago
New publication, out in Political Analysis: There is an increasing array of tools to measure facets of morality in political language. But while they ostensibly measure the same concept, do they actually? I and
@fhopp.bsky.social
set out to see what happens.
loading . . .
Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Moral Foundation Measurements Fail to Converge on Multilingual Party Manifestos
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/moral-foundation-measurements-fail-to-converge-on-multilingual-party-manifestos/0283BE5BA7711C182FC33989681EC6A7
3
35
15
Also, you don't need to live in Texas to attend! You just need to be willing to travel here!
add a skeleton here at some point
4 months ago
0
9
5
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Carlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚
4 months ago
New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power" Add content on statistical power to your social science courses. Not just to methods courses. For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!
www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...
loading . . .
For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey
Five papers you can assign when teaching about statistical power: power analysis, minimum detectable effects, sample size planning, and design diagnosis.
https://www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08-18-for-your-syllabus-power/
0
54
20
reposted by
Scott Clifford
TAMU will be hosting the Texas American Behavior Conference on Nov. 7-8 this year. Apply by Aug. 31 using the link below. Let me know if you have any questions!
tamu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
loading . . .
Qualtrics Survey | Qualtrics Experience Management
The most powerful, simple and trusted way to gather experience data. Start your journey to experience management and try a free account today.
https://tamu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_bjbb9EIgLNeCgRw
5 months ago
0
6
6
TAMU will be hosting the Texas American Behavior Conference on Nov. 7-8 this year. Apply by Aug. 31 using the link below. Let me know if you have any questions!
tamu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
loading . . .
Qualtrics Survey | Qualtrics Experience Management
The most powerful, simple and trusted way to gather experience data. Start your journey to experience management and try a free account today.
https://tamu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_bjbb9EIgLNeCgRw
5 months ago
0
6
6
Another well-deserved award for Lucia! She's doing fantastic work and is on the market this fall!
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
0
4
0
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Amanda Weiss
5 months ago
🚨 Updated working paper! Ekin Dursun and I ask what instruments best manipulate emotions on surveys (
osf.io/56h4g
). We find that vignettes really work! They have large effects on emotions of interest & smaller effects on emotions *not* of interest. But as always, it's complicated.👇 (1/17)
2
47
16
reposted by
Scott Clifford
British Journal of Political Science
5 months ago
NEW - Field Experiments Invoking Gloating Villains to Increase Voter Participation: Anger, Anticipated Emotions, and Voting Turnout -
cup.org/45KpoSo
- Gregory A. Huber, Alan S. Gerber, Albert H. Fang & John J. Cho
#OpenAccess
0
6
4
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Elizabeth C. Connors, PhD
5 months ago
Can embarrassment of one's party dampen partisanship and polarization? One would think. In a forthcoming paper at
@poqjournal.bsky.social
, Taylor Carlson,
@stevenwwebster.bsky.social
, and I examine what we call "partisan embarrassment," including looking at the ramifications of these feelings...
1
15
9
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Peter Luca Versteegen
5 months ago
🚨Pre-print alert🚨 Research shows citizens in many Western democracies are increasingly affectively polarized––they feel warm toward their own party but quite cold toward opposing parties. But how does it feel to “feel warmly”?
@katharinalawall.bsky.social
,
@mtsakiris.bsky.social
& I asked. 🧵1/8
3
54
21
reposted by
Scott Clifford
John V. Kane
5 months ago
Inflation was a big issue--maybe even *the* issue--in 2024. But do citizens understand how to interpret inflation rates? Using some new data from
@verasight.bsky.social
, the answer seems to be largely: no. On top of that, Republicans show significantly less understanding than Democrats.
4
27
13
reposted by
Scott Clifford
Curtis Puryear
5 months ago
New preprint! We developed new measurement tools to examine moralization in ~2B Twitter/X & Reddit posts and ~5M traditional media texts. Key finding: moralization increased markedly on social media from 2013-2021; more than traditional media; associated with multiple user dynamics 🧵👇
1
41
22
Load more
feeds!
log in