Have y'all been waiting with bated breath to learn more about the earliest Washington Post polls? Of course you have. Let's learn a little about "Joe Washington" I like Joe. He seems nice. @emgusk.bsky.social @sfcpoll.bsky.social (note Likert name-drop)

Erling Halaand returns to Norway with a stuffed raccoon.

Hispanic identity in the U.S. is not expressed through a single label. If you’re Hispanic, how do you describe yourself? 💬

this was not exactly my best received joke of the twitter era but it remains, to me, the funniest

Moments of rupture have forced Americans to rethink the nation’s political, social, & moral foundations. This list explores how periods of crisis—from revolution & civil war to reconstruction & reform—have redefined the principles of American democracy: press.princeton.edu/ideas/reflec...

Pair of charts from Citadel making exactly the same point, using exactly the same data, side-by-side. But weirdly effective. www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...

Lots of good storylines out of England reaching the World Cup semi-finals, but one of them imo is that Michael Harris of Braves fame and “There’s only one Michael Harris” fame can watch his new favorite team in person in Atlanta!

Lazy Sunday morning.

Who do you trust? How old are you? Trust in other people is dramatically lower among younger people than the olds charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/who-do-you...

Sad but true. Voters rewarded House Republicans, for instance, for supporting Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....

Not sure whether this idea is stupid or brilliant but — has anybody tried to teach the (stats) concept of degrees of freedom with the help of Sudoku? Do students even know Sudoku?

If students are simply uninterested in the core bargain of a class like this, it’s hard to know what to do. You teach the material because you think it’s important they know it; they don’t give a shit, but want the credential; and the university wants their money. Your main option is “pretend”.

Fantastic find.

Too many empty seats in this stadium

@futi.live just released individual game player ratings and this is crazy??? They’re literally measuring ALL the stats 💀

Most Americans say Donald Trump is using his office for personal gain. (@dhmontgomery.com @today.yougov.com) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260708-top...

Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to expect this summer to be hotter than usual. (@today.yougov.com) yougov.com/en-us/articl...

Martin Ødegaard leads the way for Norway in several different metrics at the 2026 World Cup. Haaland has been stealing the headlines, but Ødegaard deserves his flowers.

My first-ever solo-authored paper is out today (open access!) in @journalrep.bsky.social! What drives Americans to switch their presidential vote based on race over the last 3 elections? I show that it's not general racial warmth, it's changing beliefs about discrimination. (🧵 1/3)

Your fare contributes to big upgrades like vinyl seating! 🚌 Vinyl resists spills, stains, and odors, helping keep seats cleaner, fresher, and more inviting. It also enhances comfort & reduces maintenance & replacement costs. By paying your fare, you help create a better customer experience.

At least some people, some of the time, act in anticipation of future policy. Here, gun purchases appear to track presidential election outcomes and salient mass shootings. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Ball don't lie

Several years of data collection, 2 editorial teams and a few rounds of R&R were all well worth it to finally see this paper in print. Thanks to all the survey teams and the many experts who helped make this possible. doi.org/10.1086/736578

Damn feel bad for Traen

Well this was an unfortunately timely cover. youtu.be/egLoz_DPQ8E?...

Achen b2b Bartels

if you're a politics editor with a freelance budget i can have 1,200 words on this by tomorrow lol

UPDATE: It's Lunch Time dankleban.substack.com/p/dan-kleban...

I veer dangerously into normative territory in this piece: how new measures allow us to grapple with the messy, idiosyncratic preferences of Americans, what political specialization means for democracy, and why I’m doing this work in the first place.

Americans were once members of a proudly literate society, but today, reading has declined across age groups, gender, and education levels. For The Atlantic’s August issue, @rosehorowitch.bsky.social explores the reading collapse—and its effects on civilization: theatln.tc/Q0QJpF8U

One thing neither the asymmetric polarization or radicalization frames help us with is the seeming irrelevance of public opinion. If anything, the ethnocentric views of the radicalized/asymmetric white Republicans in the general public seemingly at the heart of this are less exclusionary since '16.

"Folks, just like date codes are important to ensure fresh beer, so too is freshness needed in Washington. Susan Collins is passed her shelf life. Washington is as stale as a lightstruck lager. Elect me to bring some well balanced ideas to DC."

[touches earpiece; stares directly into the camera] folks, i have just been informed maine beer co's dan kleban has a substack account and just used a brewing analogy to address the latest allegations against his one-time primary opponent graham platner: dankleban.substack.com/p/there-is-n...

Ever notice how parts of the DC area feel hotter than others? That's the urban heat island effect. Now, two orgs seek volunteers to help measure it in Arlington, Fairfax Co + Alexandria. Fndings could help make neighborhoods cooler + safer. How to help: www.capitalweather.com/help-map-nor...

My very first book interview has just been published! 🥳 Thanks to Christina Gessler at the outstanding @academiclife.bsky.social podcast for featuring me! Available for pre-order at University of California Press site, plus get 30% off with code 𝐔𝐂𝐏𝐒𝐀𝐕𝐄𝟑𝟎 😁 open.substack.com/pub/christin...

I just made up a guy to be angry at and am curious if he exists. Have any American bars unironically advertised they're not serving Stella, only Bud tonight?

I feel like if you want to beat Spain you don't start Ronaldo?

🧵

Looking forward to ISPP in Newcastle next week and the opportunity to share some things I've been thinking about. Comments quite welcome! www.amengelhardt.com/files/wp/Eng...

Diva down

here i am rock you like a

Proper journalism from the BBC here

Many strange elements in this case, including the involvement of an American businessman who contributes to Pochettino’s salary. He pushed for US officials to reference unsubstantiated claims of fixing against the Brazilian referee at club games. But it was VAR that pushed him to review the decision

El terminator! (ty Telemundo for this)

The "Haaland" at the beginning of this got me too

every time a stutter step penalty is saved an angel gets its wings

fifa has to respect local laws and customs, and in america all it takes is a five-day waiting period to get a balogun

I see this one making the rounds so I am sharing a bit of a warning. This is a non-peer-reviewed, poorly detailed report from an advocacy organization. Some key information is missing, and what is reported ("The steepest judgment gap.. comes from male Gen Z") smells like p-hacking.