Quite the contrast. nytimes.com homepage

Excited to announce DID lab's first paper! psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-... We find that children as young as 6 show political ingroup preference! First paper of very talented @annie-schw.bsky.social! In JEP: General's special issue on political development (1/3)

If we think others should follow Pelosi's lead to retirement from Congress there are 6 others members serving now who are older than her: - Chuck Grassley (R-IA) 92 - Eleanor Norton (D-DC) 88 - Hal Rogers (R-KY) 87 - Maxine Waters (D-CA) 87 - Steny Hoyer (D-MD) 86 - Jim Clyburn (D-SC) 85

Always a pleasure to talk about my coverage—and, in this case, break down the absolute dogshit @nytopinion.nytimes.com put out a couple weeks ago about the craft brewing industry. Thanks @lostlagers.bsky.social @jacobsberg.bsky.social & Brandy for having me. Tune in:

we coulda had it all

A year ago Zohran Mamdani was a little known assemblyman polling at under 1%, but on Tuesday, the 34-year-old democratic socialist won over 50% in the highest-turnout race for mayor in decades How did he do it? Featuring insights from the Voter Poll, our precinct analysis, and @amengel.bsky.social

Fascinating economics job market paper by Jens Oehlen on the effects of Enigma codebreaking and how it interacted with military/intelligence strategy jensoehlen.github.io/uploads/Enig...

NJ's bluest counties saw biggest turnout increases, propelling landslide Three densest counties saw largest jumps from '21: Hudson (Jersey City), Essex (Newark), Union >30% increase in total vote >30-pt Democratic margin High-profile local races helped, e.g., Jersey City mayoral w/ former gov 1/2

was just looking at the supplements for a high-profile, large-scale replication and saw a series of 'the effect was positive in these three samples and negative (reversed) in this one sample, so the evidence was mostly consistent across samples'. oh the things we bury in the online supplements!!

this will definitely go well

The clearest takeaway seems to be run candidates that fit their districts, especially if one wants to pick up negative retrospective folks (e.g., negative econ retrospectives). Do we have assessments of that?

Old data nuggets always interesting. Here from Key's Public Opinion a note that even 5 years after Taft-Hartley many union members had no idea about it. Raises Qs about what unions do in shaping opinion as many arguments claim. Would expect much higher opinionation rates.

In 2023, I interviewed the parents who organized this effort to oust Moms for Liberty. If you want to know more — and maybe learn from them! — check it out. Congrats to them for getting rid of them all! www.salon.com/2023/10/10/m...

News you could really use: Here’s How TurboTax Just Tricked You Into Paying to File Your Taxes www.propublica.org/article/turb...

Someone, somewhere, is going to use today's release of Football Manager 26 and EU 5 as a shock to assess turnout.

At some point we lost interest in assessing the robustness of findings using A/D scales to acquiescence bias. Here's a 1967 piece from H. McClosky.

A survey about surveys: Most Americans think federal surveys should ask about age and citizenship status. Fewer than half think they should ask about race, ancestry, income and religion. (The census currently does not ask about citizenship or religion.) www.pewresearch.org/race-and-eth...

This is great. Adding to my undergrad class for sure.

What can you do when you want crab cakes but don't have cash for crab? This sandwich pairs flavors of Greek salad with a pan fried patty made with rotisserie chicken. Add a bit of tzatziki, crispy chicken skin and tuck it all into an olive and sun-dried tomato bun and this sandwich is money.

I enjoy peer review because I get to see what other folks think is important and interesting to study and I can pay things forward for my use of the system. But having done 24 reviews so far this year I can't help but wonder about those saying no and our ability to keep this enterprise going.

I think we should officially divide up the last 40 years of gaming as "The Super Mario Bros. era" and "The Guitar Hero era"

I feel like this could've easily been a Harris-Walz ad that folks would have thought unbelievable. But here we are.

Writing up details on the first wave of the Jennings Niemi data and those surveys first started: 2 weeks after Bloody Sunday 1 week after LBJ's "We Shall Overcome" Speech And on the day the Selma to Montgomery march finished. Quite the context for those data.

And the Jays also had the 5th highest payroll this year www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...

Something potentially useful re: party positioning debates would be an update to this piece from Bartels on, in part, the nature of internal party divisions based on 2016/2017 data. How heterogenous is each coalition today on "limited government" vs "culture"? www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/researc...

The in-party extremity perceptions here are interesting. As are the "respectful and tolerant" assessments. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

I think we need more attention to the policy agenda underpinning these estimates. Accounting for what's being voted appears to be consequential. www.davidalexbateman.net/a-house-divi...

He really wants to help me write up slides on the RI-CLPM

Tribe pride.

Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift.

Tom Buchanan, great guy, very impressive young man. Has some interesting ideas about the Nordic race, very smart and scientific

Does anyone have a good writeup of the details of what is and isn't in the Chicago transit funding legislation, re: Metra?

does not inspire confidence

Good www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Looks like more interesting work on Confederate monuments. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Dan Kleban needs to get bak in the race.

Thirty years ago—not 33–Goose Island conducted an experiment that still resonates today. It reminded brewers that wood-aging has an important role to play in beer, and created one of the most American of American beers. Here’s the story of Bourbon County Stout.

More important upcoming work on political socialization. Bit of a longer wait, though, for @robertocarlos.bsky.social's book. press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

People sometimes ask why we want to rate DAGs. Couldn't we just rate statistical models instead? We like to explain it with capybaras and bicycles.

Prepping for class tomorrow on non random error and MTMM approaches and can across a Fiske and Campbell article summary that most items contain more method variance than trait variance so that has me feeling optimistic...

Pleased to share that the @aapor.bsky.social report looking at 2024 election polling is out now: aapor.org/wp-content/u...

Y I K E S. For obvious reasons, this is a TERRIBLE idea. Facial recognition has high false positive rates for immigrants in particular!

the ketchup banchan is fucking destroying me

Happy to share that my new book with Jeff Berry and Jim Glaser is now available from @uchicagopress.bsky.social! (preorder elsewhere til 12/2, but available now through Chicago) 🧵 press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

I wonder if anyone did a stop and think in developing this response scale to get how people think about it. It's.. interesting.

Alternatively, young folks' attitudes are less crystalized so turnout capacity dependent also on persuasion around more general period effects. Especially if the oldest's first election is 2016, cohort outlook unique.

Never quite put together how snarky VO Key could be.

My contribution to moderate vs. progressive is panel data from supporters of Our Revolution. In 2021, 33% preferred a Dem who disagreed w/them on key policies but was running even with or ahead of a conservative Republican in their district. This past month? 45% select the competitive candidate.

alt text from @chrispps.bsky.social on point