Large partisan differences on the effect of tariffs on the economy, though relatively little change over time. >50% of Reps say tariffs help. Those saying hurt the economy up slightly across partisanship; help economy down a bit with independents. @MULawPoll national surveys.

Less confidence that Trump policies will decrease inflation, including among Republicans, while more now think his policies will increase inflation. Independents notably more likely to now say increase. @MULawPoll national surveys.

Three looks at how partisanship drives our perceptions of reality 1) Right direction or wrong track: huge shift 2) State of the economy: now much better for Reps, worse for Dems (real economy hasn't shifted that much) and 3) personal finances, more modest changes but still some.

Did an interview with Milwaukee CBS58 @AJBayatpour on views of parties. Reps doing better than Dems for both congressional party approval and party favorability. Key difference: Dems much less happy with their party than Reps with theirs. Disappointed Dems. National data.

Reps remain solid Rep but Dems drifting away to Ind. My @MULawPoll asked party ID early in 2022. In polls with the same people since then we re-ask party ID. The chart shows PID in subsequent polls by the respondent's PID in 2022.

Found on an old backup drive. Once iconic, now requiring explanation to students.

Reality check. Headlines describe Trump approval: "crashing", "record low", "major decline". These are driven by cherry picking single polls The polling average HAS shown a decline from Jan but nothing that justifies "crashing". Apr low, small recovery, recent slip Now 43.6-52.1

Big Wisconsin news today is Gov. Tony Evers will not seek a third term, creating wide open primaries in both parties. Here is a review of Evers polling as governor, opinion about a 3rd term and the challenge of building name recognition for 2026. law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/...

Hot summer refreshment.

The Supreme Court today upheld Tennessee's ban on transgender treatment for minors with a 6-3 majority. In @MULawPoll national surveys this year about 70% favor this outcome with about 30% opposed. Independents and Democrats became slightly more opposed in May.

Since December each partisan group has become less likely to say Trump policies will decrease inflation. Majority of Reps still believe but down 21 points since Dec. Inds very dubious. MULawPoll, National May 5-15

A quick look at this week’s *national* MULawPoll results on Trump approval across issues and what are the most important issues. m.youtube.com/watch?v=_qu3...

Trump's job approval on inflation and the cost of living in @pollsandvotes.bsky.social's new Marquette national poll: 34% approve, 66% disapprove.

New Marquette Law School *national* poll. law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-cont...

Consumer confidence fell in May (see earlier post). But note that Trump net approval is up a bit in May. Reps should worry about confidence and Dems should not assume approval will fall continuously.

Care about how districts are drawn and their consequences? MULaw’s John Johnson @jdjmke has a great account of Wisconsin’s redistricting past and a look to 2031 (never too early to plan ahead.) today.marquette.edu/2025/05/the-...

Consumer sentiment fell for the 5th straight month in UMich data. Look for final May data at end of month to see if lower tariffs with China provide a boost.

Surprise to me: Wisconsin has an exceptionally low rate of kindergarteners with MMR vaccinations. www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

My @MULawLubar colleague Derek Mosley is part of Milwaukee Magazine’s Most Influential Movers and Shakers list. As Director of the Lubar Center Derek brings fascinating programs to MULaw and the community. Bravo! www.milwaukeemag.com/milwaukee-pe...

Milwaukee Magazine has included my colleague John Johnson @jdjmke in their Milwaukee’s Most Influential Movers and Shakers. Earlier this year Milwaukee Business Journal listed him in their 40 under 40 awards. Well deserved. www.milwaukeemag.com/milwaukee-pe...

This past week marked the anniversary of the end of the Vietnam war. In 2017 I posted a statistical companion to the Ken Burns PBS documentary on the war. medium.com/@PollsAndVot... From 1966-1970 there was only one day no US soldier was killed.

As with last week’s UMich survey, the new Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey shows a sharp drop in April.

My colleague jdjmke.bsky.social has a nice analysis showing Dems now advantaged by lower turnout, flipping the pattern prior to 2016. Also shift in Supreme Court elections in Milwaukee give huge boost to liberal candidate. law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/...

University of Michigan consumer sentiment drops precipitously in April.

Care about housing and what it costs? Read @MULawLubar John Johnson’s @jdjmke analysis of what it costs to build in Milwaukee. An instructive example wherever you live. Full report: bluebookmke.substack.com/p/what-it-ac...

More on tariffs from last week’s @MULawPoll release. Who thinks tariffs help the economy? Only a plurality of white non-college men, 44%, with 40% hurt. Plurality of white non-college women, 42% hurt, 33% help. Majority of all other groups say hurt. Details: law.marquette.edu/poll/categor...

Favorability to foreign countries in @MULawPoll last week. Full results: law.marquette.edu/poll/categor...

Favorability to US and international leaders in last week’s @MULawPoll release. Full details: law.marquette.edu/poll/categor...

One surprising finding in my @mulawpoll Wisc and National is that views of DEI are evenly split: 52% favor ending DEI, 48% oppose. And new Wall Street Journal poll below today finds 49-49 split. Surprisingly close given how business and universities have retreated and how much Trump emphasizes it

The question came up in comments: are people leaving the GOP? Very little. We measured party id in 2024 and again in this poll. Very little cross party movement, normal in and out of independent.

Some results of my @mulawpoll released Apr 2-3. Trump favorability remains on the rise w Reps, peaked before election w Inds tho still net negative, Dems always massively negative

How high was turnout in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election? @jdjmke explains: “Wisconsin’s 50% turnout rate in the formally nonpartisan April 2025 election was higher than the adult turnout rate of 38 states in the 2022 midterms“ bluebookmke.substack.com/p/the-2025-e...

fwiw, in the just released 2024 CES data: voters who own stocks: 50% Trump, 48% Harris do not own stocks: 50% Trump, 48% Harris

61% of Trump voters think tariffs will help the US economy. Majorities of all others think tariffs hurt the economy. @MULawPoll national survey completed 3/27, before tariffs announced 4/2. Full details law.marquette.edu/poll/categor...

New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 70% of adults say judges should not be impeached for ruling against President Donald Trump’s spending freezes and agency closures, while 30% support such impeachments. 52% of Reps opposed to impeachments, 75% of independents, 87% of Dems oppose

See my colleague @jdjmke.bsky.social analysis of Wisconsin Supreme Court election and the photo id amendment which passed easily. Note we have had an ID law since 2012. This vote added it to the constitution. bluebookmke.substack.com/p/the-2025-e...

Reposting from this morning, following President Trump’s tariff announcement this afternoon. Look for this, and the inflation impact later in the thread, to play a significant role for Trump support and GOP congressional support.

Milwaukee absentee is in, so this is very close to final. A few small counties still only partial, and one where apparently everyone went to bed early. The liberal candidate has won 4 of last 5 court races, by 12, 10, 11 and now 10.

A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 58% of adults think tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, while 28% say tariffs help and 14% say they don’t make much difference. Slightly more than half of Reps, 52%, think tariffs help, but 58% of independents say they hurt, as do 89% of Dems

Elon Musk is playing a major role in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election Apr 1, with major financial support and an event Sunday. Dems are using him as a target of negative ads. Does he mobilize more Reps or counter-mobilize more Dems? His fav is underwater but strong w Rs, universally unfav w Ds.

I’m sitting in the dark since 6:30ish, but now 3 times @MGEMadison has texted to tell me my power is back. Nope, nope, nope.

After a disappointing night Friday for Marquette, I’ve had two fantastic games today for Wisconsin and Michigan. WOW!

Covid shutdowns were a consensus position for all partisan groups when first adopted. Then evolved to a giant partisan division, with independents slowly coming to a majority saying it was an overreaction. Dems unmoved in support of the shutdowns. Reps rapidly became opposed.

While only 24% think tariffs help the economy, more generally the public thinks Trump’s policies will increase inflation, 49% vs decrease inflation, 36%. Reps, however, are convinced Trump will lower inflation, 70%.

Tariffs face skepticism among Wisconsin voters. Now this: “Ron Johnson says he has 'a lot of concerns' over Trump tariffs, impacts on Wisconsin”. Data from my new @MULawPoll of Wisconsin. 32%. Say tariffs help economy, 51% hurts. But 61% of Reps say helps.

Presidential approval from Roosevelt through Biden. FDR is 2nd & 3rd terms.

My colleague @jdjmke is tracking special election results. Across 9 races so far, the average shift has been +8.4 D, with 78.4% lower turnout than Nov 2024. John is tracking these in this repo: github.com/jdjohn215/sp...

Last week’s @MULawPoll on Ukraine aid. GOP 63% too much, ind 42%, Dem 17%. 2/2

My national @MULawPoll last week asked about Ukraine. Does the Ukraine outcome matter to life in the US? Most say it matters, Dems a bit more than Reps or inds. 1/2

Full toplines for my national @mulawpoll out last week. 4 exec orders quite popular, 4 quite unpopular. Skeptical of tariffs and doubt policies will lower inflation. law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-cont...