the outcome of the 2024 election increased confidence in U.S. elections among Trump voters, but they still lagged behind Harris voters...newest @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/many-tr...

in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler, we use vote validated CES data to show that nonvoters preferred Trump over Harris for president but Dems over Reps in down ballot races goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...

after 15 months, today is Caroline Soler's last day as the CES research associate. she has been a tremendous asset to the study and is going to be missed in so many ways. but she's on to bigger and better things with the Election Analytics team for the @nytimes.com!

🚨🚨🚨 The Cooperative Election Study's 2024 vote validation data is now available! Microdata: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... Or easy interactive analysis of the data on... vote choice: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/ demographics of voters: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/votercomp/

fuck yeah, it's christmas day

🚨🚨🚨 The Cooperative Election Study's 2024 vote validation data is now available! Microdata: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... Or easy interactive analysis of the data on... vote choice: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/ demographics of voters: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/votercomp/

in the newest post on the CES blog, Caroline Soler digs in to the question of what is the best approach for identifying Evangelicals in surveys sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...

still time to sign up for a 2025 CES module if you're interested!

we have just released the call for those interested in purchasing a module for the 2025 CES see here: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee... and if you haven't done so already, make sure to register ASAP for the 2025 CES conference (being held 6/1 - 6/3 at Solitude Mountain Resort): cesconference.byu.edu

Lucy Morisse-Corsetti asked Americans what they think their government owes them...hint: it's quite a lot. Check out her new post on the @TuftsUniversity Public Opinion Lab blog! tufts-pol.medium.com/what-your-go...

in 2008, Conservative Jews voted similarly to Reform/Reconstructionist Jews but by 2024 there was more than a 20-point gap between those two groups

The word 'civility' has sometimes meant politeness and sometimes meant equality and political freedom. With citations to Machiavelli, Wycliffe, Shakespeare, and others: peterlevine.ws?p=34156

in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Jackson Wetherill explores the intersection of NIMBYism and partisanship when it comes to attitudes towards affordable housing tufts-pol.medium.com/its-not-just...

Panel!

it's not just that Hispanic voters shifted Republican since 2020, it's also the case that some of them no longer even identify as Hispanic! new @goodauth.bsky.social post from me and Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/democra...

in a new Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Caroline Soler analyzes data from April asking people how much eggs cost now and how much they will cost in the future. big partisan gaps in perceptions of current prices, even bigger for expectations of future prices tufts-pol.medium.com/republicans-...

it's been 10 years since the last @pewresearch.org Religious Landscape Study, but the release of a new study gave Caroline Soler a chance to see how the CES stacked up against this benchmark. overall, the surveys produce very similar portraits of religion in America! sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...

another Cooperative Election Study conference in the books! new mountain resort, same great vibes! we had a special time honoring Steve Ansolabehere who is stepping down from his leadership role, 20 years after founding this incredible innovative project that has done so much for the discipline.

Egan: "the CES is currently political scientists’ most comprehensive source of large, representative samples of sexual and gender minorities in the United States." he humbly fails to note that this is due to his encouragement that we include key items bit.ly/43Zn7Ss

thanks to @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social, the Cooperative Election Study common content cumulative data file has been updated with all 701,955 respondents we've interviewed since 2006 dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab post, Lucy Belknap explores how people's perceptions of their social status often differs from their actual status, and how that disconnect influences support for Trump tufts-pol.medium.com/trump-is-sup...

Power to the people? How Dobbs failed to deliver on democratic representation. (@bfschaffner.bsky.social and Caroline Soler) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250516-top...

Unhelpful dispatches from the #aapor25 recalled vote panel: three separate presentations have now all used this same @goodauth.bsky.social @bfschaffner.bsky.social chart, making the third callback possibly the first time a chart of weighting benchmarks has served as a genuine laugh line

newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post: Noah DeYoung ('25) finds that about 20% of Republicans say Trump should run for a third term even if it is unconstitutional...but the same share of Democrats said Obama should do likewise tufts-pol.medium.com/some-republi...

new article just published in @plosone.org with former students Thomas Hershewe, Zoe Kava, and Jael Strell who wanted to interrogate whether conservatives really had better mental well-being than liberals dx.plos.org/10.1371/jour...

another great year of Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books and a great chance to honor graduating seniors. really gonna miss this group!

our newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post features Anna O'Sullivan considering how while male survey respondents often claim to participate more in politics than women, on-the-ground data often shows something different tufts-pol.medium.com/in-american-...

did young voters support Trump in 2024? this is a notoriously difficult group to poll but the major election surveys indicate that Trump lost among all but young white men. tufts-pol.medium.com/have-young-v...

we have just released the call for those interested in purchasing a module for the 2025 CES see here: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee... and if you haven't done so already, make sure to register ASAP for the 2025 CES conference (being held 6/1 - 6/3 at Solitude Mountain Resort): cesconference.byu.edu

Steady decline in tariff support over past few months... Nov '24: 52% Dec '24: 47% Jan '25: 46% Mar '25: 44% Apr '25: 42% (% favoring "U.S. placing new tariffs on goods imported from other countries" in CBS News/YouGov polling of U.S. adults) More from latest poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

new Tufts Public Opinion Lab post is up and Rolando Ortega uses @pewresearch.org data to dive into the unique political leanings of religious converts tufts-pol.medium.com/switching-th...

Biennial update on racial resentment trends in the CES: after a white Dems shift *away* from racially liberal trajectory in 2022, we're back in that direction in 2024.

I'm not going to say that this is definitely why Democrats lost vote share among Black and Hispanic voters in 2024, but I will say that the coalition of (mostly secular) white Democrats with (mostly religious) Black and Hispanic Democrats definitely has some fault lines

fwiw, in the just released 2024 CES data: voters who own stocks: 50% Trump, 48% Harris do not own stocks: 50% Trump, 48% Harris

Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/

clear evidence in the CES that ideology is beginning to overcome Dem party loyalty among black and hispanic voters: 2016 to 2024 swing in Dem support: conservative black voters: 80% -> 51% moderate hispanic voters: 79% -> 60% conservative hispanic voters: 30% -> 9%

the CES vote trends app has been updated with 2024 data! explore how a wide variety of different groups voted in 2024 and compare to previous elections. something you'd like to see in the app? we take requests, so let us know! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/

we have now posted the 2024 Cooperative Election Study common content dataset to the @harvarddataverse.bsky.social! data from 60,000 American adults interviewed before & after the election. thanks to @today.yougov.com & Caroline Soler for getting this data produced & posted doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

if you've been waiting for the CES common content data to be released, your wait is nearly over. data should be posted early next week! stay tuned!

My book is now officially out! How Politicians Polarize introduces and documents the concept of "negative representation" – when representatives focus on the other side rather than their own. Some key findings: 🧵 www.amazon.com/How-Politici...

this is overdue, but Caroline Soler and I wrote an article in the Forum and an accompanying blog post for @goodauth.bsky.social that explores whether Americans still engage in pocketbook voting ... here is a little thread goodauthority.org/news/trumps-...

now this is a real public service!

A new project to track polls: The NYT will build off the work of the recently shuttered 538, trying to ensure that this resource, which is a foundational tool for many journalists and researchers, remains updated long-term. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/p...

Jackson Wetherill shows that when people learn more about ranked choice voting support increases, but only among Democrats ... new from the Tufts Public Opinion Lab tufts-pol.medium.com/ranked-choic...

in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Lucy Morisse-Corsetti uses 911 call data to examine whether domestic violence incidents spike on election night the way they do during football games (they don't) tufts-pol.medium.com/election-nig...

in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Lucy Belknap ('25) shows that Trump doesn't have any special appeal among working class whites...they were already abandoning the Democratic Party before his emergence tufts-pol.medium.com/who-really-c...

my favorite category of compliment to get is about my daughter my second favorite is about my graphs

It's a small thing but making figures stand-alone interpretable is critical to good science writing. Always strive to do it like this.

i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...

conservatives promote school voucher programs, but those programs are not always so popular among rural Republicans. in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Rolando Ortega explores the urban/rural divide when it comes to attitudes on vouchers tufts-pol.medium.com/partisanship...