I’m beginning to think voters see “bad posts” and, to some extent, bad behavior, as desirable markers of authenticity- and thus of trustworthiness. This heuristic helped Trump, but seems that it may be of more general applicability.

Security Warning: a ninja turtle may steal your vending machine lunch.

Turns out the answer posed by this canonical political science paper--"why is there so little money in US politics?"--was pretty uncomplicated. It's that pre-Trump, politicians by and large were constrained by norms against corruption and graft. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

I succumbed to curiosity, and put my name in the service that sees how much you show up in LLMs. Llama has apparently decided that I’m an actor from “The Sopranos.”

Reading 60s Superman comics, and while it’s easy to get distracted by the… interesting drawing of JFK and Jackie, don’t miss the even wilder LBJ and Lady Bird behind them.

This has been a delightful series; sorry to see it end, but I’m happy to have backed the final volume on Kickstarter.

The UK is turning over prime ministers way too fast for me to remember them, the last one I recall was Jodie Whittaker. Wait that was Doctor Who nevermind

Scientists, could, should, etc.

This is, to my recollection, the first time I’ve been quoted in OK! Magazine.

My newest book, "The Elephants in the Room: How Trump Voters Seized the Party from Republican Leaders," hits bookshelves today. If you want to understand the modern GOP, and especially how it saw nominating Trump for a third consecutive time in 2024 as a good idea, this is the book for you. (1/6)

Spiking a poll after talking to a campaign sounds bad, but the methodology on the spiked poll sounds abysmal. I’m surprised it got as far as it did.

SpaceX stock is no different than other meme stocks like GameStop or Truth Social or BBB. Buying it is a performance of identity, with little relation to actual market value. The fact that experts say that it’s not worth the price actually increases the performative value, as the buyer knows better.

The only acceptable use of Claude

A fundamentals model- based on economic indicators and Presidential approval- in 2024 is R+4. Harris did a little better than that. Could a generational political talent have done 5 points better than the fundamentals? I don’t think we’ve seen anyone able to do that since FDR.

This is the best argument to be mustered in defense of the Iran deal: yes, it’s much worse, but the terms of the old deal are irrelevant because the Iranians didn’t take Obama seriously, and wouldn’t have stuck to it. It’s not a *good* argument, but it’s as good as it gets.

In case anyone is wondering about the nexus between crypto and the performative masculinity of the UFC. www.bloomsbury.com/us/bitcoin-b...

That was the fastest I’ve ever secured NYCC tickets! Seven minutes and $750 later, all set for October.

The original sin of Social Security is that it’s a radically redistributive program that was sold to the public as an insurance/annuity program, and people continue to understand it as such.

this has always been the most reasonable solution to problems of social security finance

I had a long conversation with Tom Martello about how the advent of competitive primaries in NJ is changing the candidates who get in to office.

I talked with AFP about why the President seems so weirdly fixated on attractive young men.

It’s my sense that Kean Jr. can pull this out if he’s back on the campaign very soon with a convincing explanation for his absence (and able to satisfy voters that it won’t happen again). But the longer he waits, the harder it will be.

And here’s another European outlet I spoke with about this (I think this is the AFP wire story):

In which muttering "goddamn you, @dancassino.bsky.social" gets another dimension

At the Met yesterday, saw a relevant print: New Yorkers, mostly people of color, pulling down a statue of King George.

The use of reconciliation to pass the DHS budget is an astonishing sign of weakness from the Republican Congress. Given the strong expectation that Democrats will take one, or both, houses of Congress in November, this was Trump's last chance to do something big. Instead: routine spending bill.

European media are intensely interested in what the heck is going on with the UFC fight taking place at the White House. I’ve done half a dozen interviews about it in the past week, which has forced me to try and think through what the connection is between Trump and combat sports.

Not sure about this specific definition but #NJ, the 11th most populist state, is often described as a news desert. Trapped between NYC & Philly media markets we struggle to get news coverage & what little we had has significantly shrunk in the last decade. This is not just a rural problem.

Let’s not be hasty. The Queen of England was almost assassinated this way.

This looks like a great collection, the digital copy is just $10, and I really want to read it, so it’d be great if we could get it over the top.

AtlasIntel: “Let’s ignore more recent elections where we’re off by 13 points.”

C'mon folks, what are we even doing here? Pollster self-proclaims themselves as the most accurate pollster in the world, according to analyses conducted by the pollster themselves using metrics defined by the very same pollster. Shameless self-promotion with a pinch of conflict of intererest 😅

Prediction: Pratt won’t advance in the LA mayoral race, will spend the next two years “asking questions” about the integrity of the race, and will get a prominent time slot at the 2028 RNC.

I think Lesley is right on about the sexism inherent in this view. I’d note that superhero comic books have the same dynamics as romance novels, but a make audience, and no one is proposing that the people making those be replaced with generative LLMs.

I would think the dream would be to collect option money as decades of the worlds most talented writers, directors and producers try and fail to adapt your work, declaring it beloved and singular and impossible to translate into the medium of film.

(A lot of this is the unseasonably cold Spring we had this year. Not that Mamdani is bad, it’s just not his doing)

man voters

I talked to Jewish Insider about Dr. Hamawy’s nomination win, and how AIPAC support is now a negative heuristic for Democratic primary voters. jewishinsider.com/2026/06/adam...

Busy week in the gender mines….

The guys (and they’re all guys) who are in to Bitcoin use price drops as an opportunity to prove how rational and masculine they are, by buying more of it. So the price will go up.

The social science community lost a good soul this week. Rest well, @raulpachecovega.bsky.social

80s: Blade Runner 90s: Goodfellas 00s: Shaun of the Dead 10s: Fury Road 20s: Oppenheimer

Huh. What the heck is that about?

Leonie is a fantastic researcher, teacher and friend. This award is very well deserved.

Love to get a glimpse into the information feed of the most powerful man in the world.

i think gumby probably lives in the backrooms

There’s a big gender gap on environmental attitudes, and you fix it the same way you get men to do housework: add gadgets and metrics, then give men the chance to tinker with them.

!!! This is crazy to me. No gabfest! Why!